Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Commodity Term Structure Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy utilizes the roll yield factor to capture the contango or backwardation state of commodities, dynamically going long on commodities with high roll yields and shorting those with low roll yields[51] - **Model Construction Process**: - The roll yield factor is calculated based on the term structure of commodity futures prices - The strategy dynamically adjusts positions to go long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[51] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy is designed to exploit the carry factor in commodity markets, providing a systematic approach to capturing term structure-related returns[51] 2. Model Name: Commodity Time-Series Momentum Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy uses multiple technical indicators to capture medium- to long-term trends in domestic commodities, dynamically going long on assets with upward trends and shorting those with downward trends[51] - **Model Construction Process**: - Technical indicators such as moving averages and momentum signals are used to identify trends - Positions are dynamically adjusted based on the identified trends, with long positions in upward-trending assets and short positions in downward-trending assets[51] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy systematically captures momentum effects in commodity markets, leveraging trend-following behavior[51] 3. Model Name: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy uses inventory factors to capture changes in the fundamentals of domestic commodities, dynamically going long on assets with declining inventories and shorting those with increasing inventories[51] - **Model Construction Process**: - Inventory data is used to construct factors reflecting supply-demand dynamics - Positions are dynamically adjusted to go long on commodities with declining inventories and short on those with increasing inventories[51] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy effectively captures fundamental changes in commodity markets, providing a systematic approach to exploiting inventory-related signals[51] 4. Model Name: Commodity Fusion Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy combines the above three sub-strategies (term structure, time-series momentum, and cross-sectional inventory) using equal weighting to create a diversified commodity investment approach[49] - **Model Construction Process**: - The three sub-strategies are equally weighted to form a composite strategy - The combined strategy dynamically adjusts positions based on the signals from the sub-strategies[49] - **Model Evaluation**: The fusion strategy aims to diversify risk and enhance returns by integrating multiple sources of alpha in commodity markets[49] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Commodity Term Structure Strategy - **Two-Week Return**: -1.39%[54] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 1.38%[56] 2. Commodity Time-Series Momentum Strategy - **Two-Week Return**: 1.99%[54] - **Year-to-Date Return**: -1.97%[61] 3. Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Strategy - **Two-Week Return**: -0.26%[54] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 4.00%[68] 4. Commodity Fusion Strategy - **Two-Week Return**: 0.12%[49] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 1.14%[49] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Roll Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the contango or backwardation state of commodity futures markets[51] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculated based on the difference between near-month and far-month futures prices - Positive roll yield indicates backwardation, while negative roll yield indicates contango[51] 2. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the trend-following behavior in commodity prices[51] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Derived from technical indicators such as moving averages and momentum signals - Positive momentum indicates an upward trend, while negative momentum indicates a downward trend[51] 3. Factor Name: Inventory Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects supply-demand dynamics in commodity markets[51] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Based on changes in inventory levels - Declining inventories indicate tightening supply, while increasing inventories indicate loosening supply[51] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Roll Yield Factor - **Performance**: Contributed positively to the term structure strategy, with key contributors being iron ore, ethylene glycol, and methanol[58] 2. Momentum Factor - **Performance**: Contributed positively to the time-series momentum strategy, with key contributors being hot-rolled coil, rebar, and zinc[67] 3. Inventory Factor - **Performance**: Contributed positively to the cross-sectional inventory strategy, with key contributors being PVC, zinc, and rubber[73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market will start an upward trend in advance in 2024, and the price will show a large - range shock in 2025, first testing the effectiveness of the low - level support [15][11] - The US and Chinese economies are the dominant factors in price fluctuations of non - ferrous metals [3][14][59] - Copper mine supply determines that the growth of refined copper production will remain at a high level [3][14][59] - Aluminum, alumina, and zinc are the main short - selling varieties in 2025 [3][14][59] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Copper Price Long - term Trend and 2025 Price Range - The low - to - high multiple of copper price is 2.5 times, and the determining factors are cost and the US dollar index [5][7][9] - In 2025, the copper price will have a large - range shock and first test the effectiveness of the low - level support. The price ranges mentioned are 8100 - 8700, and specific prices like 8900, 7800, 7500 are also given [11][16][12] - In 2024, the copper market started to rise in advance. From March to May, due to factors such as supply shortage, optimistic economic expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and supply risks, the copper price rose from 8000 to 11000 US dollars. After May 20, the price dropped due to increased production and inventory in China and the US economy not having a soft landing. There was a rebound from August to September because of policies and interest rate cuts [15][17][20] 3.2 The US and Chinese Economies as Price Fluctuation Dominant Factors US Economy - The US economic data affects the copper price. For example, during the 1994 - 1996 soft - landing period, the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment policies influenced the economic situation. Trump's policies included internal tax cuts and external tariff increases, and if he is re - elected, potential policies such as further tax cuts, tariff increases, and immigration policies may also impact the economy [23][27][29] - The predicted real GDP growth rates for the US in 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 2.9%, 2.8%, and 2.2% respectively [56] Chinese Economy - The Chinese government's debt - replacement policy has significantly reduced the local debt scale and saved about 60 billion yuan in interest expenses over five years. It has also helped local areas enhance development momentum, promote economic growth, and improve the financial asset quality [48] - The Central Politburo Meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference require maintaining economic stability, employment, and price stability in 2025. Fiscal policies will be more active, and monetary policies will be moderately loose [50][51] - The predicted real GDP growth rates for China in 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [56] 3.3 Copper Mine Supply Determines High - level Growth of Refined Copper Production Global Copper Mine Supply - The global copper mine supply growth rate has been adjusted upwards. The predicted growth rate in 2024 is 1.71% (380,000 tons in increment), higher than the May expectation, and 3.55% in 2025. The over - expected production in 2024 is due to the smooth production of some mines and lower - than - expected interference [61][62][63] - Many mines have production changes from 2023 - 2025, with a total planned increment of 3.3846 million tons, and the actual increment after considering interference is 1.6579 million tons [64] - There are various interference factors in copper mines, such as contract issues, grade decline, and production suspension, with a total interference volume of 818,000 tons in 2024 [65] Copper Smelting - The growth of smelting capacity is higher than that of copper mine capacity. From 2024 - 2026, new smelting capacity is about 5 million tons, while copper mine production only increases by 1.66 million tons, resulting in a large copper mine gap [66][67][68] - In 2024, the global refined copper production is 26.196 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.79%, and it is expected to increase by 3.44% in 2025. In China, the refined copper production in 2024 is 12.05 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.33%, and it is expected to increase by 4.32% in 2025 [71] - The production of different smelters in China and overseas will change in 2025, with an overall increase in global refined copper production [72][73] Copper Consumption - In 2023, global refined copper consumption increased by 3.9% to 25.3 million tons. It is expected to increase by 3% to 26.06 million tons in 2024 and by 3.08% in 2025. The growth in 2023 was mainly contributed by the new energy sector [74][75][76] - The consumption of copper in the new energy sector (solar and wind power, new energy vehicles) is an important factor. Although the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales and the copper consumption per unit may decline, the overall consumption is still increasing [78][84][86] 3.4 Aluminum, Alumina, and Zinc as Main Short - selling Varieties in 2025 Aluminum - The dominant factors of aluminum price are supply - demand balance and cost. The supply - demand balance of aluminum is determined by the economy, and alumina price is one of the factors causing aluminum price fluctuations [89][90] - With the growth of bauxite supply in Guinea, the bauxite supply - demand will turn to surplus again. It is expected that the bauxite production in Guinea will increase by about 2.387 million tons in 2025 compared with 2024 [92][95] - The export profit of alumina shows the leading role of overseas quotes. The decline of the Australian FOB price of alumina will drag down the domestic spot price [96][98] - It is expected that the alumina production will increase by 3.6 million tons to 89.6 million tons in 2025, with an increase of about 4.2%. The bauxite supply - demand balance in 2025 is affected by the import volume, and the price may decline in the second half of the year [99][101] Zinc - It is expected that the idealized increment of global zinc concentrate in 2025 is about 989,700 tons, but considering various factors, the actual increment is estimated to be between 400,000 - 600,000 tons [106][107] - It is predicted that the global refined zinc production will increase by 3.3% to 14.1 million tons in 2025 [111] - In China, the supply - demand balance of refined zinc will turn from a deficit in 2024 to a surplus in 2025. Globally, the supply - demand balance of refined zinc will also turn from a deficit in 2024 to a surplus in 2025 [113][115]