Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Bonny Holdings (01906) reported a significant decline in both revenue and profit for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with revenue at 116 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.27% [1] - The company's profit attributable to owners was 1.173 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decrease of 78.04%, with basic earnings per share at 0.1 cents [1] - The decline in revenue from the ODM product segment was primarily due to the severe impact of U.S. tariff policies on global trade, which weakened the company's product price advantage and led to reduced order volumes from overseas clients, resulting in a 13.7% drop in export revenue for this segment [1] Group 2 - Domestic revenue for the ODM product segment saw a significant decline of approximately 45.7%, attributed to a weak domestic economy, low consumer sentiment, and intense competition in the retail market, which adversely affected the business and profitability of domestic clients [1]

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's total export value reached $321.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, exceeding market expectations of 5.79%[1] - Exports to economies excluding the U.S. increased by 3.0 percentage points to 12.6%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall export growth[1] - Key regions driving export growth included Latin America (+0.8 pct), South Korea (+0.5 pct), and Taiwan (+0.4 pct)[1] U.S. Export Trends - Exports to the U.S. fell by 21.6% year-on-year in July, a decline of 5.6 percentage points compared to June, impacting overall exports by 3.3 percentage points[2] - Container shipping rates to the U.S. dropped approximately 28% in the last week of July compared to the last week of June, indicating a slowdown in trade[2] - The expected monthly export range to the U.S. is projected between $35.8 billion and $38.2 billion, with year-on-year growth unlikely to return to positive figures[2] Regional Export Dynamics - South Korea's exports grew by 5.9% in July, the highest rate this year, driven by semiconductor exports which rose by 31.6%[3] - Vietnam maintained a high export growth rate of 17.7% in July, with exports to the U.S. increasing by 26%[3] - The export growth of labor-intensive products, machinery, and high-tech products showed varying degrees of slowdown, with labor-intensive products declining to -0.6%[4] Import Trends - Total imports in July reached $223.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, up 3 percentage points from June[4] - Significant contributors to import growth included bulk commodities, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural products, with increases of 1.6, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively[4] - The import of crude oil and copper ore saw notable rebounds, while iron ore imports fell by 8.8%[4] Future Outlook - China's export resilience is expected to continue, with positive year-on-year growth anticipated from August to October 2025, despite potential short-term declines in November and December due to high base effects[6] - The recent increase in U.S. tariffs may further impact global trade dynamics, with uncertainties surrounding the U.S. economic outlook and potential tariff expansions to other economies[6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US has announced new tariffs on imports from various economies, effective from 1 August, with rates varying based on trade balances [2][11] - Countries like the UK, mainland China, and Vietnam have managed to maintain their baseline tariff rates due to existing trade deals, while others like India and the EU are in negotiations [3][29] - Significant tariff rates include 25% on imports from Japan and Korea, 25-36% on several ASEAN economies, and 50% on Brazilian imports, which may distort global trade data [4][6] - The report anticipates continued volatility in global trade data due to these tariffs, with potential material slowdowns in global goods trade towards the end of 2025 and early 2026 [6][41] - There are inflationary risks for the US as higher tariffs could lead to increased import costs, impacting consumer prices [7][42] Summary by Sections New Tariff Rates - New tariffs have been announced, with specific rates for various countries, set to take effect on 1 August [11][12] - The report includes a detailed table comparing new and previously suggested reciprocal tariff rates across different economies [13] Impact on Economies - Economies with significant exposure to the US market, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia, may experience substantial impacts on their growth due to these tariffs [16][19] - The report highlights that sectoral tariffs will add additional burdens, particularly in industries like copper and pharmaceuticals [20][27] Trade Deals and Negotiations - Some economies have successfully negotiated trade deals, while others are still in discussions, with the EU and India being notable examples [29][30] - The report suggests that ongoing negotiations may lead to further adjustments in tariff rates before the implementation date [33] Global Trade Volatility - The first half of 2025 has seen significant volatility in global trade data, driven by frontloading of purchases ahead of tariff announcements [34][36] - The report predicts that as frontloading subsides, global goods trade flows will slow down significantly [41][42] Inflationary Pressures - The report indicates that the trade-weighted tariff on many products could increase input prices by over 10%, leading to inflationary risks in the US [42][46] - Early signs of inflationary pressures are already evident in the US PMI data, diverging from global trends [42][46]