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Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% after seasonal adjustment, while core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [1] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, exceeding both the previous value of 236,000 and the expected 235,000 [1] - The market has fully priced in three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, indicating a strong expectation for monetary easing [1][7] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Trends - Inflation data shows that CPI and core CPI growth rates align with expectations, suggesting limited impact from tariffs on overall prices, while certain goods like new and used cars and housing still exhibit price stickiness [2][3] - Despite stable overall inflation, specific categories such as clothing and energy have shown price increases, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [2] - The employment market is cooling, with non-farm payrolls only increasing by 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the CPI and jobless claims data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4%, the dollar index declined, and U.S. stocks reached new highs, reflecting investor concerns over employment data [9] - The potential for a "stagflation-like" scenario exists if inflation rises unexpectedly alongside a deteriorating job market, which could limit the Federal Reserve's policy options [8] - The performance of financial markets post-rate cuts will depend heavily on the U.S. economy's ability to achieve a soft landing; otherwise, significant market adjustments may occur [9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced a decline due to reduced risk appetite following comments from Putin about a potential new arms agreement with the U.S. and a significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which raised concerns about inflation and diminished expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI for July increased by 0.9%, marking the largest rise in three years, which has led to heightened market concerns regarding inflation pressures [2]. - Following the PPI data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September dropped to 89.1% from approximately 95% prior to the announcement, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices opened the week at $3,398.34 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $3,404.51, but subsequently fell over 1.6%, closing at $3,336.11, reflecting a total weekly decline of $62.23 or 1.83% [3]. - The fluctuations in gold prices suggest that the market is sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, with geopolitical uncertainties typically driving demand for gold [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing expectations among currency investors that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times before the end of the year, with the first cut anticipated in September [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.44% to 98.27 points last week, indicating a decline in the dollar's value against other currencies [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.47% against the dollar, reaching an exchange rate of 1 euro to 1.1639 dollars, while the dollar also decreased by 0.22% against the yen, settling at 147.72 yen per dollar [1] Group 2 - The recently released US employment report for July showed that the number of new jobs added was significantly below expectations, suggesting a slowdown in economic growth [1] - Weakness in service sector activity and real estate market demand further indicates that the US economy is facing challenges [1] - The upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index for July on August 12 will be closely monitored to assess whether tariffs will exacerbate inflationary pressures [1] Group 3 - St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto M. Musalem stated that the Federal Reserve is currently facing risks related to inflation and employment targets, necessitating a careful balance in monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden cooling of the U.S. job market is prompting speculation about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat its previous aggressive rate cuts in response to weak employment data [2][7][10] Group 1: Employment Data - The latest non-farm payroll data for July shows a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with only 73,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations [4] - The private sector added only 3,000 jobs in June and 83,000 in July, while the manufacturing sector has seen job losses for three consecutive months, averaging a reduction of 13,000 jobs per month [4][6] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% to 4.248%, with a decrease of 260,000 in the number of employed individuals according to household surveys [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The unexpected weak employment report has led to increased speculation about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September rising significantly [7][8] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged from below 40% to nearly 90%, with a high likelihood of a 25 basis point reduction [7][8] Group 3: Economic Context - Unlike last year, the current economic challenges include inflation concerns due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [10] - Analysts believe that the risk of sustained inflation is low in the context of weak demand and a soft labor market, which may influence the Fed's future rate decisions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data influencing trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent gold price movements have shown a slight rebound, closing at $3289, indicating a small bullish trend despite overall bearish sentiment [1]. - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to increased global trade uncertainties, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is critical, as weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, potentially boosting gold prices, while strong data may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent rebound in gold prices was stronger than anticipated, suggesting limited adjustment space in the short term, with key support around $3270 and resistance near $3300 [2]. - A breakout above the $3300 level could lead to testing the 10 and 20-day moving averages around $3340, while a negative non-farm report could push prices down to the $3260-$3250 range [2]. - The suggested trading strategy includes short positions at $3300-$3305 with a stop loss at $3315 and a target of $3250 [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. unemployment rate, adjusted non-farm employment figures, and average hourly wage data, all scheduled for release at 20:30 on August 1 [4]. - Additional data points include the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and consumer confidence index, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US has announced new tariffs on imports from various economies, effective from 1 August, with rates varying based on trade balances [2][11] - Countries like the UK, mainland China, and Vietnam have managed to maintain their baseline tariff rates due to existing trade deals, while others like India and the EU are in negotiations [3][29] - Significant tariff rates include 25% on imports from Japan and Korea, 25-36% on several ASEAN economies, and 50% on Brazilian imports, which may distort global trade data [4][6] - The report anticipates continued volatility in global trade data due to these tariffs, with potential material slowdowns in global goods trade towards the end of 2025 and early 2026 [6][41] - There are inflationary risks for the US as higher tariffs could lead to increased import costs, impacting consumer prices [7][42] Summary by Sections New Tariff Rates - New tariffs have been announced, with specific rates for various countries, set to take effect on 1 August [11][12] - The report includes a detailed table comparing new and previously suggested reciprocal tariff rates across different economies [13] Impact on Economies - Economies with significant exposure to the US market, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia, may experience substantial impacts on their growth due to these tariffs [16][19] - The report highlights that sectoral tariffs will add additional burdens, particularly in industries like copper and pharmaceuticals [20][27] Trade Deals and Negotiations - Some economies have successfully negotiated trade deals, while others are still in discussions, with the EU and India being notable examples [29][30] - The report suggests that ongoing negotiations may lead to further adjustments in tariff rates before the implementation date [33] Global Trade Volatility - The first half of 2025 has seen significant volatility in global trade data, driven by frontloading of purchases ahead of tariff announcements [34][36] - The report predicts that as frontloading subsides, global goods trade flows will slow down significantly [41][42] Inflationary Pressures - The report indicates that the trade-weighted tariff on many products could increase input prices by over 10%, leading to inflationary risks in the US [42][46] - Early signs of inflationary pressures are already evident in the US PMI data, diverging from global trends [42][46]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market added 139,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months, which is better than market expectations but below the 12-month average of 149,000 jobs per month [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department significantly revised down the employment data for March and April, reducing the combined job growth for these two months by 95,000 [1] - Employment growth in May was primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, which collectively added 126,000 jobs [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing and retail sectors, which are closely tied to trade, showed signs of weakness, with manufacturing losing 8,000 jobs and retail shedding 6,500 jobs [1] - The average hourly wage for non-farm employees in May was $36.24, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The cautious sentiment surrounding the May employment data reflects businesses' uncertainty regarding trade policies and economic growth [2]