全球金融资产再配置‘去美化’
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格林大华期货早盘提示-20250904
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 23:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the reports Core View of the Report - The main indices of the two markets continued to adjust on Wednesday, while the ChiNext Index strengthened. The A-share new account openings in August showed significant growth both month-on-month and year-on-year. The issuance of a private equity fund by Hengyi Chiying to Ping An Life and the inflow of international funds into A-shares are positive factors. The market as a whole may enter a daily-level adjustment state, with a low probability of a sharp downward trend, and the adjustment is expected to occur in the form of range-bound horizontal fluctuations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main indices of the two markets continued to adjust, with the ChiNext Index strengthening driven by the battery sector. The trading volume decreased during the adjustment, with a turnover of 236 million yuan. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2960 points, down 31 points or -1.07%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4459 points, down 30 points or -0.68%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6868 points, down 93 points or -1.34%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7206 points, down 107 points or -1.46%. Among industry and theme ETFs, those related to energy storage batteries, photovoltaic, and new energy led the gains, while aerospace and military-related ETFs led the losses. Among the sector indices, electrical equipment, communication equipment, BC batteries, and the pharmaceutical index led the gains, while military trade concepts, aviation, military informatization, large aircraft, and the diversified finance index led the losses. The CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Shanghai Composite 50 stock index futures saw net outflows of 4.9 billion, 4.6 billion, 2.9 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively [1] Important Information - China's S&P Services PMI in August was 53, up from 52.6 in the previous month, reaching the fastest record since May 2024 and remaining in the expansion zone for 32 consecutive months. The growth rate of new orders accelerated for the second consecutive month and reached the highest record since May 2024, partly due to the strong growth of new export business [1] - In August this year, the number of new A-share accounts reached 2.6503 million, a month-on-month increase of 34.97% compared to 1.9636 million in July this year and a year-on-year increase of 165.21% [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. jointly announced that they would adjust the samples of indices such as the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 according to the index rules. This adjustment is expected to be completed between September 12 and September 15. The weight of Cambrian in the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index will be passively adjusted from the current approximately 15% to 10% [1] - Hengyi Chiying will issue a contract-based private equity fund to Ping An Life as the fund manager, with an initial fund size of approximately 30 billion yuan. Once insurance funds enter the market through private equity funds, their returns will not be affected by the short-term fluctuations of the stock prices of the held varieties [1] - According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in August were 1.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 10%. The cumulative wholesale sales from January to August this year were 8.93 million, a year-on-year increase of 34% [1] - Since the beginning of this year, the overseas energy storage demand has increased explosively, leading to a surge in orders for domestic energy storage cell enterprises. Factories have been operating at full capacity. With the implementation of the market-oriented reform of the new energy on-grid electricity price, some energy storage enterprises even reported a situation of "even paying extra can't get an order" and "a shortage of cells" [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the global energy storage cell shipments were 226 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 97%. The top nine were all Chinese enterprises. In the first half of the year, Chinese enterprises obtained 199 new overseas energy storage orders (cooperations), with a total scale of over 160 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 220.28%. The emerging markets have broad prospects [2] - Tesla officially released "The Fourth Chapter of the Master Plan", expecting that approximately 80% of the company's value will come from the Optimus robot in the future. It plans to launch the third version prototype of Optimus by the end of this year and start large-scale mass production in 2026, aiming to reach an annual production scale of 1 million units within five years [2] - The yield of the 30-year UK government bond once rose to 5.697%, reaching a new high since 1998; the yield of the 30-year German government bond was at a level not seen since 2011; the yield of the 30-year French government bond refreshed the record since 2009. Investors are re-evaluating the long-term risks brought by the expanding public debt and political uncertainties in Europe [2] - Ray Dalio warned that Trump is pushing the United States towards the governance model of the 1930s through state intervention in the private sector. He predicted that the United States will face a debt crisis within three years, and the huge fiscal gap will force large-scale bond issuance [2] Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets continued to adjust on Wednesday, while the ChiNext Index strengthened. The A-share new account openings in August showed significant growth both month-on-month and year-on-year. Hengyi Chiying's issuance of a private equity fund to Ping An Life and the inflow of international funds into A-shares since August are positive factors [2] Market Outlook - The main indices of the two markets continued to adjust on Wednesday, while the ChiNext Index strengthened. The S&P Services PMI in August showed good performance, and the energy storage cell industry had strong growth. The A-share new account openings in August increased significantly. The global reallocation of financial assets away from the US is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A-shares. The market as a whole may enter a daily-level adjustment state, with a low probability of a sharp downward trend, and the adjustment is expected to occur in the form of range-bound horizontal fluctuations [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, the market as a whole may enter a daily-level adjustment state, with a low probability of a sharp downward trend, and the adjustment is expected to occur in the form of range-bound horizontal fluctuations [2] - For stock index option trading, the market has entered an adjustment period, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示-20250710
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 23:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for all four major stock index futures contracts (IH, IF, IM, IC) and suggests buying out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices [1][2][3]. 2. Report's Core View - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises is likely to boost the performance of listed companies, and international funds are expected to flow into A - shares due to the "de - Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation. Although the Shanghai Composite Index had a short - term pullback, the medium - and long - term outlook is optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Review** - On Wednesday, the major stock indices in the two markets were strong first and then weak. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated above 3500 points and declined after 14:00. The innovative drug sector led the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.50 trillion yuan, with little change. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6390 points, down 17 points or - 0.27%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5953 points, down 24 points or - 0.41%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2739 points, down 7 points or - 0.26%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 3991 points, down 7 points or - 0.18%. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, and SSE 50 index futures saw net outflows of 80, 37, 31, and 4 billion yuan in settled funds respectively [1]. **Important Information** - The Economic Daily stated that breaking "involution" means returning the market to fair competition. When enterprises shift from low - price competition to competing in technology, user understanding, and market creation, they can move up the value chain [1]. - National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie said that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's GDP continuously exceeded 110, 120, and 130 trillion yuan, and this year's economic volume is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan [1]. - In June, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year - on - year, up from a decline in the previous month, and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, with a narrower decline than the previous month [1]. - The A - H premium converged, and the Hong Kong stock market showed a valuation premium. Foreign investors still have a large demand for Chinese core assets. As of June 30, the A - H premium in the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Hong Kong market fell below 130%, similar to the level in early 2021 [1]. - Goldman Sachs pointed out that the Chinese software market continued the strong development momentum of AI - native applications in Q2 2025, with intelligent agents, multi - modal AI models, and model deployment as the three core growth engines [1]. - JD Takeaway launched the "Double - Hundred Plan", investing over 10 billion yuan to support more brand products to achieve sales of over one million [1]. - US Commerce Secretary Luttner is expected to meet with Chinese officials in early August to discuss trade issues [1]. - OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production, but oil prices did not fall, indicating that the global oil supply - demand balance is more tense than the surface data shows [2]. - Tether Holdings SA, the world's largest stablecoin issuer, stores about $8 billion worth of gold in a Swiss vault, making it the largest gold holder outside banks and national institutions [2]. - The US Treasury plans to increase the cash reserve in the general account from about $313 billion on July 3 to $500 billion by the end of July and to $85 billion by September [2]. - US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, causing the US copper futures price to soar 13% to a record high [2]. - The spread between US junk bonds and Treasury bonds has dropped to a record low of about 2.88 percentage points, indicating strong investor confidence in the economic outlook [2]. **Market Logic** - The major stock indices in the two markets were strong first and then weak on Wednesday. China's economic volume is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan this year. The A - H premium converged, and foreign investors have a large demand for Chinese core assets. The US imposing tariffs on Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia benefits China's exports. Goldman Sachs expects Chinese listed companies to pay a total of 3 trillion yuan in dividends by the end of 2025 [2]. **Outlook for the Future Market** - The market is expected to evolve into a trending upward market. The "de - Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation may accelerate international funds flowing into A - shares. The central government's measures to promote a unified national market and regulate low - price competition are expected to boost the performance of listed companies. The short - term pullback of the Shanghai Composite Index does not affect the medium - and long - term optimism [2]. **Trading Strategies** - For stock index futures directional trading, given the expected improvement in listed company performance and the potential for a trending upward market, it is recommended to be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts [2]. - For stock index option trading, as the market is expected to turn into a trending upward market, it is recommended to buy long - term out - of - the - money call options on stock indices [3].