Revenue Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1,155.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%[2] - The national general public budget expenditure was 1,412.71 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] - Government fund budget revenue was 194.42 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year[2] Expenditure Insights - Government fund budget expenditure reached 462.73 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 30%[2] - Public finance expenditure growth slowed to 3.4%, with a notable focus on social welfare and technology sectors[3] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.2%, indicating strong support for public welfare[3] Structural Changes - The expenditure structure emphasized "people's livelihood" and "technology," while infrastructure spending continued to decline, with a negative growth rate of 4.5%[3] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure (public finance expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 8.9% year-on-year[4] Performance Metrics - The completion rate of the national general public budget revenue for the first half of 2025 was 52.6%, lower than the average of the past five years (53.9%) [3] - The completion rate of public finance expenditure was 47.6%, also below the five-year average of 48.1%[3] Risk Factors - Economic environment changes could significantly impact tax revenue bases[5] - Unexpected policy changes may alter the scale and pace of fiscal expenditures[5]

宏观研究/宏观点评 一、财政收入继续恢复，支出增速持续上升。1-4 月公共财政收入 累计同比-0.4 %（前值-1.1 %），公共财政支出累计同比 4.6 %（前值 4.2 %）；政府性基金收入累计同比-6.7 %（前值-11.0 %），政府性基金 支出累计同比 17.7 %（前值 11.1 %）。 二、政府性基金支出显著加速：1-4 月，政府性基金收入累计 12,586 亿元，同比-6.7 %（前值-11.0 %），其中国有土地使用权出让收入 9,340 亿元，同比-11.4 %（前值-15.9 %）；政府性基金支出累计 26,136 亿元， 同比 17.7 %（前值 11.1 %），其中国有土地使用权出让收入安排的支 出 13,647 亿元，同比-8.4 %（前值-11.0 %）。 三、公共财政支出结构：1-4 月公共财政支出 93,581 亿元。其中， 中央本级财政支出占比 13.1%，同比 9.0 %（前值 8.9 %）；地方财政支 出占比 86.9% ，同比 3.9 %（前值 3.6 %）。分项目看：1-4 月债务付息 支出累计同比 11.0 %（前值 18.0 %）；社会保障和就业支出累计同比 8 ...