宏观经济点评 证券研究报告 2025年08月22 日 董利 分析师 Email:dongli@lczg.com 证书:S1320525070001 陈国文 分析师 Email:chenguowen@lczg.com 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点: 财政收入增速转正,但预算完成进度偏慢。1-7月一般公共预算收入同比增速 0.1%, 结束年初以来负增长态势。7月单月增速达2.6%,创年内新高。其中,中央和地方 收入月度增速均达到今年以来新高。但从节奏看,一般公共预算收入完成进度偏慢。 7月财政数据点评:收入显著改善,支出加力保民生 7月外贸数据点评:出口增速超预期 2025.08.08 内消费税增幅扩大。消费税增速上升与社零消费保持韧性相一致,主要得益于消费 税基扩围。(3)个人所得税增速提高,增幅较大。个税提升与低基数、权益市场上 涨股息派增等因素有关。(4)土地与房地产、外贸相关税种表现仍欠佳。土地增值 税和契税增速仍处负增区间,印证土地与房地产市场不景气。出口退税增速下降, 关税增速仍落入负增区间。 财政支出总量平稳,支出结构显著分化。1-7月一般公共预算支出同比增速为3.4%, 与前值持平 ...

宏观经济分析报告 公共财政收支增速差收窄 -- 2025年1-7月财政数据点评 | | | 王哲语 SAC NO: S1150524070001 2025年8月20日 证券分析师 王哲语 022-23839051 wangzheyu@bhzq.com 周喜 022-28451972 SAC NO: S1150511010017 zhouxi@bhzq.com 2025年8月19日,财政部公布 2025年 1-7月财政收支情况: (1) 1-7月,全国一般公共预算收入 135839 亿元,同比增长 0.1%;全国一 般公共预算支出 160737 亿元,同比增长 3.4%。 (2)1-7月,全国政府性基金预算收入 23124亿元,同比下降 0.7%;全国政 府性基金预算支出 54287 亿元,同比增长 31.7%。 点评如下: ● 公共财政收入:个税收入增速持续较高 2025年 1-7月,公共财政收入同比由降转涨,其中,税收收入同比降幅收窄, 非税收入同比涨幅收窄,公共财政收入结构改善。税收收入中,增值税同比涨 幅较 1-6月略有扩大,单月增速有所下降,整体仍呈平稳趋势。企业所得税收 入同比降幅收窄,可能源于"反 ...

Revenue Insights - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 135,839 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%[2] - The national general public budget expenditure was CNY 160,737 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] - Individual income tax revenue growth expanded to 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall tax revenue growth rate[2] Fund Budget Analysis - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while expenditure surged by 31.7%[4] - The increase in fund expenditure is primarily due to the accelerated implementation of special national bonds and local special bonds[4] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public finance + government fund expenditure) grew by 9.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure growth remained stable, with a focus on social welfare, which saw a 6.8% increase, particularly in social security and employment sectors, which grew by 9.8%[3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth, with specific sectors like urban community and transportation also experiencing declines[3] - Debt interest payments increased by 6.4%, indicating a rising trend in this area[3] Fiscal Performance Metrics - By the end of July 2025, the completion rate of the national general public budget revenue was 61.8%, below the five-year average of 63.5%[2] - The completion rate for public finance expenditure was 54.1%, also lower than the five-year average of 54.7%[3]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.1%, up from -0.3% in the previous period[1] - General public budget expenditure maintained a year-on-year growth rate of +3.4%, unchanged from the previous period[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.7%, improving from -2.4% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased significantly by +31.7%, compared to +30.0% in the previous period[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In July, tax revenue increased by +5.0% year-on-year, marking an improvement for two consecutive months[3] - The four major tax categories showed varied performance, with domestic consumption tax growing by +5.38% and corporate income tax rising by +6.36%[4] - Personal income tax saw a notable increase of +13.92%, the highest among major tax categories, driven by low base effects and stock market gains[5] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue growth slowed to +8.9% in July, down from +20.8% the previous month, with land use rights revenue increasing by +7.2%[22] - Government fund budget expenditure growth also decreased to +42.4% from +79.2% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures declining by -4.1%[22] Infrastructure Investment and Economic Outlook - Infrastructure-related expenditure showed a recovery with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.81%, improving by 4.99 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The cumulative completion rate for general public budget revenue in the first seven months was 58.2%, lower than the average of the past five years[14] - The government is expected to have room for further fiscal policy adjustments to stabilize the domestic economy in the second half of the year[34]

Revenue Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1,155.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%[2] - The national general public budget expenditure was 1,412.71 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] - Government fund budget revenue was 194.42 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year[2] Expenditure Insights - Government fund budget expenditure reached 462.73 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 30%[2] - Public finance expenditure growth slowed to 3.4%, with a notable focus on social welfare and technology sectors[3] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.2%, indicating strong support for public welfare[3] Structural Changes - The expenditure structure emphasized "people's livelihood" and "technology," while infrastructure spending continued to decline, with a negative growth rate of 4.5%[3] - The overall broad fiscal expenditure (public finance expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 8.9% year-on-year[4] Performance Metrics - The completion rate of the national general public budget revenue for the first half of 2025 was 52.6%, lower than the average of the past five years (53.9%) [3] - The completion rate of public finance expenditure was 47.6%, also below the five-year average of 48.1%[3] Risk Factors - Economic environment changes could significantly impact tax revenue bases[5] - Unexpected policy changes may alter the scale and pace of fiscal expenditures[5]

Revenue Performance - In June, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 18,943 billion, a year-on-year decline of 0.3%[2] - Tax revenue showed marginal improvement, growing by 1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue decreased by 3.7%[2] - Corporate income tax and consumption tax saw marginal increases, with corporate income tax benefiting from a low base effect[2] Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in June was CNY 28,318 billion, growing by only 0.4% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in the previous month[3] - Cumulative expenditure growth for the first half of the year was 3.4%, below the annual target of 4%[3] - Expenditure on science and technology increased by 18%, while infrastructure spending continued to decline, with transportation spending down by 13%[3] Government Fund Dynamics - Government fund revenue in June was CNY 3,959 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, marking a significant recovery[4] - Land sales revenue rose by 22% year-on-year, contributing to the improved government fund revenue[4] - Government fund expenditure surged by 79% year-on-year in June, driven by accelerated issuance of special bonds[5] Fiscal Deficit Insights - The broad fiscal deficit has widened, but the gap between actual revenue and budgeted revenue has narrowed effectively[6] - The potential fiscal gap for the year is estimated to be no more than CNY 3,000 billion if current revenue growth is maintained[6] - There is a risk of further widening fiscal gaps if revenue growth does not sustain the levels seen in the first half of the year[7]

证书编号：S0790524110002 事件：5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 16007 亿元，全国一般公共预算支出 19372 亿元。政府性基金预算收入 2897 亿元，政府性基金预算支出 5989 亿元。 财政收支增速放缓，支出加大科技民生投入 1、5 月公共财政收入增速放缓。5 月狭义财政收入 16007 亿元，同比增长 0.13%， 增速较前值下滑 1.76 个百分点。1-5 月公共财政收入累计同比下滑 0.3%，降幅 基本持平前值。从结构看，税收收入增长遇阻，非税收入增速继续走低。5 月税 收收入降速，同比增长 0.6%（前值 1.9%），截至 5 月税收较去年累计下降 1.6%， 与全年+3.7%的目标仍有差距。非税收入增速由正转负，同比下滑 2.2%（前值为 +1.7%），相比税收收入，非税收入降幅相对更大。主要税种中个人所得税、增 值税保持高增，消费税和企业所得税基本持平去年。个税和企业所得税之间出现 分化，个税收入同比增长 12%、企业所得税基本为零增长。个税收入高增或与 2024 年基数持续偏低、征税范围扩大有关。企业所得税增速延续回落，部分外 贸企业营收仍受对等关税影响。国内增值税同比增长 ...