证券研究报告 固收视角 税收端改善,狭义支出提速 2025 年7月财政数据点评 华泰研究 2025年8月22日|中国内地 | 张继强 | 吴宇航* | 仇文竹* | 朱逸敏* | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570518110002 | SAC No. S0570521090004 | SAC No. S0570521050002 | SAC No. S0570124070133 | | SFC No. AMB145 | wuyuhang@htsc.com | qiuwenzhu@htsc.com | zhuyimin@htsc.com | | zhangjiqiang@htsc.com | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | | | 财政部发布的7月财政数据显示.7月财政教据延续回暖态势,尤其税收端改善带动狭义财政支出有所提速, 广义财政则在银行注资特别国债、超长期特别国 ...

Revenue Insights - From January to July 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached CNY 135,839 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%[2] - The national general public budget expenditure was CNY 160,737 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4%[2] - Individual income tax revenue growth expanded to 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall tax revenue growth rate[2] Fund Budget Analysis - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while expenditure surged by 31.7%[4] - The increase in fund expenditure is primarily due to the accelerated implementation of special national bonds and local special bonds[4] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public finance + government fund expenditure) grew by 9.3% year-on-year, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month[4] Expenditure Trends - Public finance expenditure growth remained stable, with a focus on social welfare, which saw a 6.8% increase, particularly in social security and employment sectors, which grew by 9.8%[3] - Infrastructure spending continued to show negative growth, with specific sectors like urban community and transportation also experiencing declines[3] - Debt interest payments increased by 6.4%, indicating a rising trend in this area[3] Fiscal Performance Metrics - By the end of July 2025, the completion rate of the national general public budget revenue was 61.8%, below the five-year average of 63.5%[2] - The completion rate for public finance expenditure was 54.1%, also lower than the five-year average of 54.7%[3]

Fiscal Performance - General fiscal expenditure cumulative year-on-year growth reached 9.3%, aligning with the annual budget level[3] - General fiscal revenue for January to July was 13.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while expenditure was 16.1 trillion yuan, up 3.4%[6] - In July, general fiscal revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while expenditure decreased by 12.4%[9] Revenue and Taxation - Tax revenue has shown positive year-on-year growth for four consecutive months, with July's tax revenue increasing by 4.6%[9] - Major tax categories such as VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax grew by 4.3%, 5.4%, 6.4%, and 13.9% respectively[9] - Non-tax revenue saw a decline, with July's non-tax revenue down 12.4% year-on-year[9] Expenditure Trends - Social security, health, and education expenditures increased significantly, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 14.2%, and 4.6% respectively[9] - Infrastructure spending has been reduced, with traditional infrastructure sectors showing negative growth[9] - Debt interest payments rose to 8.9% year-on-year, indicating increasing pressure on debt management[9] Land Sales and Special Bonds - Land sale revenue continued to show positive growth, increasing by 7% year-on-year, supported by active land market transactions[9] - Special bonds and specific government bonds have significantly bolstered fund expenditures, with fund spending growing by 31.7% year-on-year[9] Government Debt and Future Outlook - The front-loading of government debt has boosted fiscal expenditure, but expectations for economic stability still require fiscal support[9] - Excluding capital injections and debt relief funds, general fiscal expenditure growth would drop from 9.3% to 2.9%[9] - The net financing of government debt is expected to decrease in the second half of the year, impacting local government cash flow and economic indicators[9]

全国狭义财政收入由负转正，折射经济稳中向好。 8月19日，财政部披露今年前7个月财政收支情况。1~7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增 长0.1%。 今年以来全国一般公共预算收入增速出现下滑，不过降幅逐步缩窄，随着7月份收入增幅（2.6%）创下 年内新高，带动全国一般公共预算收入累计增速首次实现由负转正。 近几个月税收收入保持增长，折射经济运行向好。不过总体来看税收收入累计增速依然低于经济增速 （上半年经济增速为5.3%）。 财政部数据显示，今年前7个月全国非税收入24906亿元，同比增长2%。这一增幅明显低于去年同期数 据（12%）。 除了一般公共预算收入外，以地方卖地收入为主的政府性基金收入也是广义财政收入重要的组成部分。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖近日公开表示，受多重因素影响，7月份部分经济指标有所波动，但主要 指标累计增速保持总体平稳，就业物价总体稳定，经济平稳运行态势没有改变。 税收收入方面，今年前7个月，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比下降0.3%，这一降幅持续缩窄。其中7 月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。 对于税收增速与经济增速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of tax revenue in July, highlighting a 4% year-on-year increase, while non-tax revenue continues to decline, indicating a reduced reliance on non-tax income by the government [1][5]. Revenue Analysis - In the first seven months, general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year, meeting the initial budget target, with tax revenue showing a cumulative decline of 0.3%, leaving room for improvement towards the annual target of 3.7% [1][5]. - The four major tax categories performed strongly, with personal income tax rising by 13.9% year-on-year, significantly exceeding seasonal levels, attributed to factors such as a strong equity market and improved tax collection management [10][11]. - Corporate income tax showed a cumulative decline of 0.4% year-on-year, reflecting low corporate profitability amid low PPI levels, although July saw a monthly increase of 6.4% [10][11]. - Domestic consumption tax increased by 5.4% year-on-year, influenced by previous adjustments in consumption tax policies for automobiles [10][11]. - Stamp duty on securities transactions surged by 58% year-on-year in July, marking a significant increase [10][11]. Expenditure Analysis - In July, general public budget expenditure rose by 3.0% year-on-year, driven primarily by social security, health care, and debt servicing, while infrastructure spending declined by 3.6% [2][12]. - Cumulative expenditure from January to July increased by 3.4% year-on-year, slightly below the budget target of 4.4%, indicating a slower spending pace compared to the previous year [2][12]. - The increase in fiscal deposits is attributed to the front-loaded issuance of government bonds, which has allowed for smoother expenditure patterns and potential recovery in fiscal spending growth in the coming months [2][12]. Land Revenue and Market Trends - Land transfer revenue in July grew by 7.2% year-on-year, although cumulative growth for the year narrowed to -4.6% [3][18]. - High-frequency data indicates a 31.5% year-on-year decline in land transfer revenue for residential land in 300 cities in the first half of August, primarily influenced by first- and second-tier cities [3][18]. - The government is expected to implement strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, which may impact future fiscal policies and land revenue [3][18]. Infrastructure Investment Insights - Weak infrastructure investment in June and July is identified as a macroeconomic characteristic, potentially leading to looser narrow liquidity conditions [4][21]. - The government has emphasized the need to accelerate effective investment and the disbursement of new policy financial tools, which is likely to support construction activity in the latter half of the year [4][21].

2025.08. 19 本文字数：1810，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 全国狭义财政收入增速由负转正，折射经济稳中向好。 8月19日，财政部公布今年前7个月财政收支情况。1-7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同 比增长0.1%。 今年以来全国一般公共预算收入增速出现下滑，不过，降幅逐步缩窄。随着7月份这一收入增幅 （2.6%）创下年内新高，带动全国一般公共预算收入累计增速首次实现由负转正，折射了经济运行 总体平稳。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖近日公开表示，受多重因素影响，7月份部分经济指标有所波动，但主 要指标累计增速保持总体平稳，就业物价总体稳定，经济平稳运行态势没有改变。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成，其中又以税收为主，税收也被称为"经济晴雨 表"。 根据财政部数据， 今年前7个月，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比下降0.3%，这一降幅持续缩窄。 其中7月份，全国税收收入18018亿元，同比增长5%，月度增幅自4月份由负转正后持续回升。 近几个月税收收入保持增长，折射经济运行向好。不过总体来看税收收入累计增速依然低于经济增速 （上半年经济增速为5.3%）。 ...

Government Revenue - China's national general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year to 13583.9 billion CNY from January to July [1] - National tax revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year to 11093.3 billion CNY from January to July [1] - Non-tax revenue increased by 2% year-on-year to 2490.6 billion CNY from January to July [1] - From January to June, national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year-on-year to 11556.6 billion CNY [4] - From January to June, national tax revenue decreased by 1.2% year-on-year to 9291.5 billion CNY [4] - From January to June, non-tax revenue increased by 3.7% year-on-year to 2265.1 billion CNY [4] Specific Tax Revenue - Stamp tax increased by 20.7% year-on-year to 255.9 billion CNY from January to July, with securities transaction stamp tax increasing by 62.5% year-on-year to 93.6 billion CNY [2] - Stamp tax increased by 19.7% year-on-year to 195.3 billion CNY from January to June, with securities transaction stamp tax increasing by 54.1% year-on-year to 78.5 billion CNY [5] Land Revenue - Revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights decreased by 4.6% year-on-year to 1695 billion CNY from January to July [3] - Revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights decreased by 6.5% year-on-year to 1427.1 billion CNY from January to June [6] Government Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% year-on-year to 16073.7 billion CNY from January to July [3] - Expenditure on social security and employment increased by 9.8% year-on-year to 2762.1 billion CNY from January to July [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in individual income tax (IIT) revenue, which is primarily attributed to improved tax collection efficiency and enforcement, rather than an increase in residents' disposable income [1][5][10] - In the first half of the year, individual income tax revenue grew by 8% year-on-year, while urban residents' per capita disposable income only increased by 4.7%, indicating a disparity between income growth and tax revenue [5][10] - The increase in individual income tax is mainly driven by high-income earners, with those earning over 1 million yuan annually contributing over 50% of the total IIT revenue, despite representing only 1% of the total filers [5][10] Group 2 - The divergence between value-added tax (VAT) and corporate income tax (CIT) is notable, with VAT revenue increasing by 2.8% while CIT revenue decreased by 1.9% in the first half of the year [12][13] - This divergence is attributed to "involution" competition leading to increased revenue without corresponding profit growth, as well as one-time factors affecting CIT collection early in the year [12][13] - The overall corporate income tax revenue was negatively impacted by a reduction in tax payments from central financial enterprises, which accounted for a significant portion of the decline [13] Group 3 - Non-tax revenue experienced a decline, with a year-on-year growth of only 3.7% in the first half of the year, and a negative growth rate observed since May [17][18] - The slowdown in non-tax revenue growth is linked to diminishing support from the monetization of state-owned assets and improvements in the business environment leading to reduced administrative fees and penalties [17][18] - The revenue from state-owned resource asset usage, which constitutes a significant portion of non-tax revenue, is expected to face challenges as easily monetizable assets have already been utilized [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the significant increase in individual income tax (IIT) is primarily due to improved tax collection efficiency and enforcement, while the divergence between value-added tax (VAT) and corporate income tax (CIT) is mainly influenced by one-time factors at the beginning of the year. Additionally, the negative shift in non-tax revenue reflects improvements in the business environment [1][3][11]. Group 2 - In the first half of the year, national tax revenue reached 9.29 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, with VAT, CIT, and consumption tax growth rates at 2.8%, -1.9%, and 1.7% respectively. Despite weak growth in overall tax revenue, IIT saw a notable increase of 8% year-on-year [3][6]. - The growth in IIT is not aligned with improvements in residents' disposable income, which only increased by 4.7%. High-income earners contribute significantly to IIT, with those earning over 1 million yuan accounting for over 50% of the total IIT collected [6][10]. - The increase in IIT is attributed to several factors, including the full implementation of the "Golden Tax" Phase IV, which enhances tax collection efficiency through data integration and analysis, and the implementation of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) for overseas income reporting [8][10]. - The rise in stock transfers and employee stock incentives, particularly in high-income cities like Beijing and Shanghai, has also contributed to the increase in IIT. In the first half of the year, Beijing's IIT revenue grew by 7.8% [10]. - The growth in dividend income from listed companies, with a total dividend payout of nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, has further supported the increase in IIT [10]. Group 3 - The divergence between VAT and CIT is unusual, with VAT growing by 2.8% while CIT declined by 1.9%. This divergence is attributed to "involution" competition leading to increased revenue without corresponding profit growth, as well as one-time factors affecting CIT collection early in the year [11][12]. - The decline in non-tax revenue, which reached 2.27 trillion yuan with a year-on-year growth of only 3.7%, is primarily due to reduced support from the monetization of state-owned assets and improvements in the business environment leading to lower administrative fees and penalties [15][16][17].

Revenue Analysis - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national general public budget revenue from January to June 2025 is -0.3%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure is +3.4%, down from +4.2%[1] - Government fund budget revenue shows a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -2.4%, improving from -6.9% previously[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In June, tax revenue shows a year-on-year growth of +1.04%, an improvement compared to May[3] - The domestic consumption tax in June increased by +1.96%, while the vehicle purchase tax rose by +5.99%, indicating a positive contribution from automotive consumption[4] - The corporate income tax grew by +2.73%, reflecting a low base effect, but remains lower than the growth rate of value-added tax[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue in June increased significantly by +20.8%, recovering from -8.1% the previous month, driven by land sales[25] - The expenditure of government funds in June surged by +79.2%, compared to +8.8% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures showing a year-on-year growth of +5.9%[25] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure growth in June is +0.38%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Infrastructure-related expenditure in June fell by -8.80%, while social security and health expenditures also saw declines[15] - The completion rate for general public budget revenue from January to June is 48.8%, lower than the average of the past five years[15]