Core Insights - The October fiscal data shows a clear divergence in revenue and expenditure, with tax revenue continuing to grow significantly, likely due to improvements in prices affecting nominal variables [2] - Non-tax revenue growth has hit a five-year low, indicating challenges in revitalizing state-owned assets [2] - General fiscal expenditure growth has notably slowed, with the possibility of either accelerating spending by year-end or rolling over to next year, which will directly impact next year's fiscal spending strength [2] - Land transfer revenue has again shown negative growth, putting pressure on land finance [2] - The urgent task for fiscal policy is to implement existing policies effectively to generate more tangible work output [2] Revenue Analysis - From January to October, fiscal revenue has increased by 0.8% year-on-year, surpassing the initial budget growth target by 0.1%, indicating that achieving the annual target is feasible with a required decline of only 3.7% in November and December [3] - Tax revenue growth has slightly underperformed expectations, and adjustments in the revenue structure have been insufficient [3] - Government fund revenue needs to achieve a 5.3% year-on-year growth in the last two months, with potential for a year-end surge in land transfer revenue [3] Expenditure Analysis - Fiscal expenditure from January to October has increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while the annual budget anticipates a 4.4% increase, necessitating a significant 12.9% growth in the last two months [3] - Government fund expenditure is expected to require a 40.3% year-on-year increase, suggesting a potential for accelerated spending in the coming months, including possible year-end spending spikes [3] Future Outlook - The report maintains the view that fiscal policy in 2026 will likely be proactive and expansionary, focusing on "investment in things" and "investment in people," with an expected fiscal expansion similar to 2025 [2] - The anticipated fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is around 4%, with special bonds projected at 5 trillion and special treasury bonds at approximately 2 trillion, leading to an expected total fiscal expenditure of 43 trillion, an increase of 1.13 trillion from 2025 [2]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 18 年 月 日 宏观点评 10 月财政数据的 4 点关注 事件：2025 年 1-10 月一般财政收入累计 18.65 万亿，同比 0.8%（1-9 月同比 0.5%）；10 月一般财政收入 2.26 万亿，同比 3.16%（9 月同比 2.58%）。1-10 月 一般财政支出累计 22.58 万亿，同比 2%（1-9 月同比 3.1%）；10 月一般财政支 出 1.78 万亿，同比-9.78%（9 月同比 3.08%）。 核心结论：10 月财政收支分化明显，主要有 4 点关注：一是税收收入延续高增， 可能与物价改善推升名义变量表现等有关；二是国有资产盘活较难延续，非税收 入增速创近 5 年新低；三是一般财政支出增速明显回落、支出进度也偏慢，后续 有两种可能，年底加快支出进度或者结转至明年支出，将直接影响明年财政支出 力度，关注最终预算执行情况；四是土地出让收入再度负增，土地财政仍承压。往 后看，财政的当务之急仍是推动现有政策落地，形成更多实物工作量。维持年度策 略报告（《乘势而上—2026 年宏观经济与资产展望》）的观点：2026 年政 ...

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - General fiscal expenditure from January to October decreased year-on-year to 5.2%, with a significant drop in October to -18.8%[3] - Total public budget revenue reached 18.6 trillion yuan, growing by 0.8% year-on-year, while expenditure was 22.6 trillion yuan, up by 2.0%[7] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in October showed a positive year-on-year growth for the seventh consecutive month, at 8.6%, while non-tax revenue plummeted by -32.8% due to high base effects[10] - Major tax categories such as VAT, consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax contributed positively, with growth rates of 7.2%, 4.4%, 7.3%, and 27.3% respectively[10] Expenditure Analysis - Infrastructure spending saw a notable reduction, with declines in traditional sectors like energy conservation and transportation ranging from 10% to 30%[10] - Social security and technology expenditures turned negative in October, with year-on-year changes of -0.1% and -0.9% respectively[10] Land Sales and Debt Issuance - Revenue from land sales continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of -27.5% in October, reflecting a broader trend in land transaction values[10] - Approximately 4.5 trillion yuan of general and ordinary government bonds were issued from January to October, with an expected 0.6 trillion yuan yet to be spent[10] Budget Execution and Risks - General fiscal revenue is on par with the initial budget at 0.2%, but expenditure is lagging behind the budget target of 9.3%[10] - Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in the real estate sector and potential discrepancies between budget execution and final accounts[9]

11月17日，财政部公布2025年1—10月财政收支情况。 1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，全国税收收入153364亿元，同比 增长1.7%；非税收入33126亿元，同比下降3.1%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入81856亿 元，同比下降0.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入104634亿元，同比增长2.1%。 1—10月，全国一般公共预算支出225825亿元，同比增长2%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本级 支出34727亿元，同比增长6.3%；地方一般公共预算支出191098亿元，同比增长1.2%。 从最新公布的财政收支情况可以看出，一般公共预算出现了收入增速加快，支出增速回落的情况。此 外，一般公共预算收入增速创年内新高。 "这可能与10月份土地市场热度回落有关。"中国银河证券首席宏观分析师张迪说。 张迪分析，10月土地出让收入当月值为2680亿元(前值3039亿元)，累计增速下滑至-7.4%(前值-4.2%)， 土地成交规模环比回落，同比降幅亦显著扩大。根据克而瑞地产研究数据，10月土地成交建筑面积与金 额分别环比下降13%和20%；同比来看，二者降幅进 ...

Core Insights - The central government budget revenue decreased by 0.8% year-on-year, amounting to 8.18 trillion yuan [1] - Local government budget revenue increased by 2.1% year-on-year, reaching 10.46 trillion yuan [1] Summary by Category General Public Budget Revenue - Total general public budget revenue for the first ten months of the year was 18.64 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] Tax Revenue - National tax revenue reached 15.33 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue totaled 3.31 trillion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decline of 3.1% [1]

National General Public Budget Revenue - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18,649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [2] - Tax revenue accounted for 15,336.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, while non-tax revenue was 33,126 billion yuan, showing a decline of 3.1% [2] - Central government revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, down 0.8%, while local government revenue was 104,634 billion yuan, up 2.1% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 58,858 billion yuan, increasing by 4% [3] - Domestic consumption tax amounted to 14,390 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.4% [4] - Corporate income tax reached 39,182 billion yuan, up 1.9% [5] - Personal income tax saw a significant increase of 11.5%, totaling 13,363 billion yuan [6] - Import VAT and consumption tax totaled 15,007 billion yuan, down 4.9%, while customs duties were 1,954 billion yuan, down 3.3% [7] - Export tax rebates were 18,121 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.9% [8] - Urban maintenance and construction tax was 4,377 billion yuan, up 3.5% [9] - Vehicle purchase tax decreased significantly by 16.3%, totaling 1,676 billion yuan [10] - Stamp duty revenue reached 3,781 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 29.5%, including a remarkable 88.1% growth in securities transaction stamp duty [11] - Property tax increased by 10.6%, amounting to 4,373 billion yuan [14] National General Public Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure from January to October was 225,825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [20] - Central government expenditure was 34,727 billion yuan, up 6.3%, while local government expenditure was 191,098 billion yuan, increasing by 1.2% [20] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 34,117 billion yuan, growing by 4.7% [21] - Social security and employment expenditure was 37,742 billion yuan, with a growth of 9.3% [24] - Science and technology expenditure totaled 7,847 billion yuan, increasing by 5.7% [22] - Expenditure on urban and rural community services decreased by 7.3%, totaling 15,253 billion yuan [24] - Expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water resources fell by 11.7%, amounting to 17,627 billion yuan [24] National Government Fund Budget Revenue - Government fund budget revenue was 34,473 billion yuan, down 2.8% [24] - Local government fund budget revenue was 30,855 billion yuan, decreasing by 3.3%, with land use rights transfer income at 24,982 billion yuan, down 7.4% [24] National Government Fund Budget Expenditure - Total government fund budget expenditure was 80,892 billion yuan, a significant increase of 15.4% [24] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 8,564 billion yuan, up 2.2 times, while local government fund budget expenditure was 72,328 billion yuan, increasing by 7.3% [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that from January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 186.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 153.36 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while non-tax revenue was 33.13 billion yuan, indicating a decline of 3.1% [1] - When analyzing the revenue by central and local levels, central general public budget revenue was 81.86 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, whereas local general public budget revenue was 104.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1% [1]

#数据 财政部：1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490亿元，同比增0.8%。其中，全国税收收入153364亿元，同比增长1.7%；非税收入33126亿元，同比下降3.1%。印花税3781亿元，同比增长29.5%。其中，证券交易印花税1629亿元，同比增长88.1%。国有土地使用权出让收入24982亿元，同比下降7.4%。1—10月，全国一般公共预算支出225825亿元，同比增长2%。社会保障和就业支出37742亿元，同比增长9.3%。 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] Revenue Breakdown - National tax revenue amounted to 153,364 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1] - Non-tax revenue was 33,126 billion yuan, showing a decline of 3.1% year-on-year [1] - Central government general public budget revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [1] - Local government general public budget revenue reached 104,634 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.1% [1] Expenditure Breakdown - Total national general public budget expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] - Central government general public budget expenditure was 34,727 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [1] - Local government general public budget expenditure amounted to 191,098 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1]

Fiscal Overview - In September 2025, the overall fiscal revenue and expenditure were in a tight balance, with expenditure growing at a relatively fast pace, providing support to the fundamentals [2] - The general public budget revenue in September increased by 2.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by accelerated tax revenue growth [2][4] - The general public budget expenditure in September grew by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous month's growth of 0.8% [2][4] Government Fund Budget - The government fund budget showed a recovery in September, with revenue increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a previous decline of 5.7% [2][8] - The expenditure growth rate for the government fund budget slowed to 0.4% in September, down from 19.8% in the previous month [2][9] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue for September reached 15,678 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, continuing the recovery trend [4] - The tax revenue for the first nine months of 2025 grew by 0.7%, a significant increase from the previous value of 0.02% [5] - Personal income tax saw a notable increase of 9.7%, attributed to enhanced tax collection measures since 2025 [5] Expenditure Trends - National public budget expenditure in September was 28,740 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [7] - The expenditure completion rate for the first nine months reached 70.1%, with social security and employment, health, and education sectors showing faster spending progress [7] Regional and Sectoral Performance - Among 31 provinces, 27 reported positive growth in tax revenue, with only a few regions affected by declining prices of major commodities [5] - Key strategic areas such as social security, technology, and education received substantial funding, with growth rates of 10%, 6.5%, and 5.4% respectively [5] Policy Implications - The acceleration of new policy financial tools and the allocation of 500 billion yuan from the central government to local governments are expected to support economic recovery [3] - The focus on effective investment and project construction in major economic provinces is anticipated to enhance overall economic performance [3]