Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has released the fiscal revenue and expenditure data for 2025, indicating a stable overall fiscal revenue with significant changes in key areas of public concern, particularly in personal income tax and corporate income tax growth [1][3]. Revenue Summary - Total fiscal revenue for 2025 is projected at 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% from 2024, with tax revenue increasing by 0.8% [3]. - Personal income tax revenue reached 1.6187 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year growth, while corporate income tax revenue was 4.1304 trillion yuan, showing a 1% increase [1][4]. - The increase in personal income tax is attributed to the implementation of the "Golden Tax Phase IV" and a record high in A-share trading volumes, which boosted property income tax [5]. Expenditure Summary - Total general public budget expenditure for 2025 is estimated at 28.7395 trillion yuan, representing a 1% increase from the previous year [7]. - Key areas of expenditure include social security and employment (up 6.7%), education (up 3.2%), health (up 5.7%), and science and technology (up 4.8%) [7][8]. - The government has maintained or increased spending in essential areas despite economic pressures, indicating a commitment to social welfare [8]. Social Welfare Initiatives - In 2025, approximately 100 billion yuan is allocated for childcare subsidies, benefiting over 30 million infants, marking a significant investment in human capital [9]. - There is a recognized need for further improvement in social spending, with current broad social security expenditures at nearly 10% of GDP, compared to 18%-30% in developed countries [9][10]. - Recommendations for enhancing social welfare include increasing tax deductions for childcare and elder care to alleviate financial burdens on families [9].

Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue for 2025 was 21,604.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[1] - National general public budget expenditure reached 28,739.5 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 1%[1] - Government fund budget revenue totaled 5,770.4 billion CNY, down 7% year-on-year[1] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue growth was positive, with the monthly year-on-year growth rate gradually turning from negative to positive in the second half of the year[2] - Major tax categories (VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax) shifted from negative growth in 2024 to positive growth in 2025[2] - Personal income tax and securities transaction stamp tax saw significant improvements due to a vibrant equity market[2] Expenditure Focus - Public finance expenditure in the livelihood sector (education, social security, and health) accounted for over 38% of total expenditure, significantly higher than the average of the past five years[3] - Expenditure in the technology and cultural sectors reached a new high, particularly in technology[3] - Infrastructure spending saw a decline, with only environmental protection expenditure showing positive growth[3] Budget Completion Rates - The completion rate for the national general public budget revenue in 2025 was 98.3%, lower than the average of the past five years[2] - The completion rate for national general public budget expenditure was 96.8%, also below the average of the past five years[3] - Government fund budget revenue completion rate was 92.3%, while expenditure completion rate was 90.4%, the latter being higher than the average of the past five years[5]

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 财政：12 月收支变化与 2026 年开年预期 | [Table 分析师： | 吴棋滢 | | --- | --- | | _Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BQN213 | | | 021-38003588 | | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 2025 年 12 月财政收入单月变化幅度较大（同比-25.0%），我们理解基数是主要原因。2024 年"924"后为完 成预算任务"安排有关中央单位上缴一部分专项收益"，带动中央财政收入走高（2024 年 12 月同比 40.4%）， 高基数之下 2025 年同期同比只有-50.3%；地方财政收入受基数影响相对较小，与前值的同比 4.1%大致持平。 根据财政部数据，2025 年 12 月一般公共预算收入同比-25.0%（前值-0.02%）；其中税收收入同比-11.5%（前 值 2.8%）、非税收入同比-47.9%（前值-10.8%）；中央一般公共预算收 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's fiscal revenue for 2025 is projected to be 21.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 1.7% compared to the previous year, with tax revenue showing a modest increase of 0.8% [1] - The overall fiscal revenue is expected to operate steadily, with tax revenue showing a gradual recovery, indicating a stable economic development trend [1] - Non-tax revenue is expected to decline significantly by 11.3%, primarily due to a high base effect from one-time special revenue payments made by central units in 2024 [1] Group 2 - In terms of tax categories, domestic value-added tax is projected to grow by 3.4%, while domestic consumption tax is expected to increase by 2%, driven mainly by the growth in tobacco and refined oil consumption taxes [1] - Corporate income tax is anticipated to rise by 1%, with an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, largely supported by the manufacturing sector [1] - Personal income tax is expected to grow by 11.5%, and securities transaction stamp duty is projected to increase significantly by 57.8% [1] Group 3 - Local general public budget revenue is expected to increase by 2.4% in 2025, with 27 out of 31 regions experiencing revenue growth compared to 2024 [2] - National general public budget expenditure is projected to reach 28.74 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1% [2] - Government fund budget revenue is expected to decline by 7%, with land use rights revenue decreasing by 14.7% [2] Group 4 - Government fund budget expenditure is projected to grow by 11.3%, with significant spending on special bonds and other financial instruments amounting to 619 billion yuan to support economic recovery [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, aiming to enhance precision and effectiveness in fiscal spending [1] - The expansion of total spending requires higher demands for the effective use of available financial resources, with experts predicting a larger fiscal spending scale in 2026, maintaining an "early start and quick use" approach [1][4] - Fiscal revenue is expected to recover due to stable economic growth, with tax revenue accounting for approximately 68% of total fiscal revenue in the first eleven months of 2025, driven by domestic consumption and improved corporate profits [2][3] Group 2 - The fiscal expenditure for 2026 is projected to maintain a front-loaded approach, with local government bond issuance plans indicating a scale of nearly 1.2 trillion yuan for the first quarter [4][5] - The issuance of replacement bonds and special bonds is expected to follow a sequence that prioritizes debt relief before investment, with a focus on balancing the issuance of various types of bonds [5] - To enhance local financial capacity, there is a need to increase transfer payment scales and improve their effectiveness, particularly in underdeveloped regions [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance of the autonomous region, with a significant increase in both revenue and expenditure for the first eleven months of the year [1] Group 2 - The general public budget revenue reached 238.4 billion yuan, showing a growth of 10.1% year-on-year [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 140.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, ranking second nationally and exceeding the national average by 5.1 percentage points [1] - Non-tax revenue was 97.95 billion yuan, growing by 13.9%, accounting for 41.1% of the general public budget revenue, marking the lowest level since July [1] Group 3 - The general public budget expenditure totaled 596.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [1] - Key areas of expenditure, such as resource exploration information, scientific technology, and energy conservation, experienced growth rates higher than the overall budget expenditure growth rate [1] Group 4 - Social welfare expenditure reached 453.08 billion yuan, increasing by 2.7% year-on-year, and constituted 76% of the general public budget expenditure [2] - Education, social security and employment, and health care expenditures accounted for 38% of the general public budget expenditure, emphasizing the focus on "investing in people" [2]

Core Insights - Yunnan Province's fiscal revenue for January to November 2025 reached 202.1 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.3% compared to the previous year [1] - Tax revenue accounted for 139.99 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.6%, while non-tax revenue decreased by 8.1% to 62.11 billion yuan [1] - Total fiscal expenditure for the same period was 617.74 billion yuan, marking a 2.2% increase year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - Provincial-level revenue reached 41.97 billion yuan, up by 4.1% year-on-year, while revenue from state and county levels decreased by 0.6% to 160.13 billion yuan [1] - Tax revenue growth indicates a stable economic environment, while the decline in non-tax revenue may suggest challenges in other revenue-generating areas [1] Expenditure Analysis - Provincial-level expenditure was 133.51 billion yuan, increasing by 13.8%, while state and county-level expenditure fell by 0.6% to 484.23 billion yuan [1] - The largest expenditure category was social security and employment, totaling 123.56 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.7%, followed by education at 109.81 billion yuan, which grew by 10.2% [1] - Expenditure in agriculture, forestry, and water resources saw a significant decline of 19.5%, totaling 77.09 billion yuan, indicating potential issues in these sectors [1]

Core Insights - The non-tax revenue of Kyrgyzstan increased by 90% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period last year [1] - The total non-tax revenue reached 149 billion som (approximately 1.7 billion USD), with an increase of 70.6 billion som (approximately 800 million USD) [1] - The share of non-tax revenue in the national budget revenue rose by 8.1 percentage points to 31.6% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Property and interest income accounted for 54% of the non-tax revenue [1] - Sales of goods and service income represented 24.8% of the non-tax revenue [1]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In November 2025, the national general public budget revenue showed a year-on-year growth of -0.02%, down from 3.2% previously, indicating a significant slowdown in revenue growth due to economic fundamentals[1] - The national general public budget expenditure in November 2025 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.8%[1] - The broad fiscal budget revenue completion rate for January to November 2025 was 85.3%, with a monthly year-on-year decline of 5.2% in November, higher than the same period in 2024[2] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in November 2025 was 11,450 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, while non-tax revenue was 2,576 billion yuan, showing a decline of 10.8%[3] - The corporate income tax turned negative, reflecting a broader economic slowdown, while personal income tax maintained a high growth rate, partly due to enhanced tax collection efforts[4] Government Fund Budget Analysis - The government fund budget revenue in November 2025 decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 18.4%, primarily due to reduced land transfer income[7] - Government fund budget expenditure in November 2025 increased by 2.8% year-on-year, recovering from a previous decline of 38.2%, attributed to accelerated project funding[8] Future Fiscal Outlook - For 2026, there is a potential for a slight increase in the deficit ratio, estimated between 4.0% and 4.2%, corresponding to a deficit scale of approximately 5.89 trillion to 6.19 trillion yuan[3] - The broad fiscal deficit scale is projected to be around 11.79 trillion to 12.09 trillion yuan, with local special bonds estimated at about 4.4 trillion yuan[3]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal data for January to November indicates a slight increase in public budget revenue and expenditure, but the growth rate is slowing down, reflecting economic pressures and constraints on local government spending [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - From January to November, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year, showing a deceleration compared to the previous months [1]. - The completion rate of general public budget revenue for the year is 91.2%, while expenditure stands at 83.7%, indicating a slower spending pace [1]. - The broad fiscal revenue for the same period completed 85.3% of the target, with broad fiscal expenditure at 80.7%, highlighting a significant lag in spending [1]. Group 2: Economic Context and Constraints - The slow expenditure growth is attributed to pressures on fiscal revenue and constraints from local debt management and fiscal policies aimed at "increasing revenue and reducing expenditure" [2]. - Broad fiscal revenue decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with government fund budget revenue dropping by 4.9%, indicating a worsening trend compared to earlier months [2]. - The focus on debt management has led to a preference for using fiscal funds for debt resolution and clearing overdue payments, which limits local spending willingness [2]. Group 3: Future Fiscal Policy and Projections - Analysts suggest that to enhance spending, existing fiscal tools should be utilized effectively, including accelerating the use of special bonds and ensuring timely disbursement of funds for new policies [4]. - The expectation is that if the current revenue growth trend continues, the public budget revenue will meet the annual target, with a potential surplus that could support future expenditures [4]. - The upcoming fiscal policy is anticipated to maintain a similar expansionary stance as this year, with an emphasis on social welfare and consumption [8].