2025年06月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘冲突缓和 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：伦铜现货强势，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：短期区间调整 | 10 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：仓单持续减少 | 15 | | 工业硅：仓单持续性去化，关注市场情绪 | 17 | | 多晶硅：仓单未增，关注市场情绪 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts ease [2][4]. - Silver: Retreats from high levels [2][4]. - Copper: Strong spot market for LME copper supports prices [2][11]. - Aluminum: Oscillates with a bullish bias [2][14]. - Alumina: Rebounds significantly [2][14]. - Zinc: Under pressure [2][17]. - Lead: Adjusts within a short - term range [2][19]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations [2][22]. - Nickel: Concerns at the mine end ease, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, with weak supply - demand and low - level oscillations [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2508, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2508 were 785.08, 782.94, and 3406.50 respectively, with daily changes of - 0.91%, - 0.63%, and 0.06%. The previous closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2508 and Comex Silver 2508 were 8864 and 37.180, with daily changes of 0.07% and 2.23% [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump claimed full control of Iranian airspace; Israeli military said it destroyed Iranian uranium - enrichment facilities; US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US Senate passed a stablecoin bill; Bank of Japan maintained interest rates [5][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0, and silver trend intensity is 0 [9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,380, down 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 78560, up 0.23%. The previous closing price of LME Copper 3M was 9,670, down 0.26% [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's remarks on Iran; Chile's state - owned copper company's production increased by 20.5% year - on - year in April; Kakula Mine restarted operations; Peru's Condor - Teck copper project got environmental approval; Ivanhoe Mines revised its production target for Kamoa - Kakula [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20460, and the night - session closing price was 20585. The previous closing price of LME Aluminum 3M was 2545. The previous closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2860, and the night - session closing price was 2896 [14]. - **Comprehensive News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, and alumina trend intensity is 0 [16]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 21905, up 0.30%, and the previous closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2660, up 1.28% [17]. - **News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US industrial output declined for the second time in three months [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is - 1 [17]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16860, down 0.71%, and the previous closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2006.5, up 0.70% [19]. - **News**: US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month; US industrial output declined for the second time in three months [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [20]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 263,730, down 0.29%, and the previous closing price of LME Tin 3M was 32,250, down 0.92% [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump's remarks on Iran; Israeli military's actions; US economic data; US tariff disputes; US stablecoin bill; Bank of Japan's monetary policy [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 118,570, and the previous closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,480 [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; an Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance; the Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban [27][28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [30].

Core Viewpoint - Apple (AAPL.O) may increase the assembly production of iPhone 17 in India to 60% to 65%, but it could revert back to China depending on the outcome of the tariff dispute [1] Group 1 - The Trump administration may continue to pressure Apple to produce iPhones in the United States [1] - Producing iPhones in the U.S. could lead to a significant price increase, potentially raising the cost of non-entry-level iPhones to around $3,500 [1]