1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 27.5 to close at 1035 cents per bushel, a 2.73% increase; the September soybean meal contract rose 80 to close at 3056 yuan per ton, a 2.69% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 30 to 2850 yuan per ton, a 1.06% increase; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 89 to 2850 yuan per ton, a 3.38% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 90 to 2600 yuan per ton, a 3.59% increase [4][7]. - The U.S. soybeans closed higher in a volatile market. Firstly, the U.S. soybean crushing volume exceeded expectations, and driven by the boost of the biodiesel policy, the strength of U.S. soybean oil led to the increase. Secondly, the export sales progress of new - crop soybeans accelerated, and the agricultural product procurement agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia was conducive to increasing the export demand for U.S. agricultural products. Thirdly, precipitation in the production areas during the critical growth period in August might decrease compared with the previous period, and the temperature would rise, with the possibility of drought still existing. The Brazilian premium fluctuated within a limited range, and combined with the strength of the external market, there was support from the import cost. There was an expectation of tight soybean supply in the fourth quarter, and there was still no news of soybean procurement. The Dalian soybean meal rose in a volatile market. In the near - term, soybean meal was in the process of continuous inventory accumulation, the supply was relatively loose, and the rebound strength of the spot price was limited [4][7]. - In the next two weeks, the cumulative precipitation in the production areas will be slightly higher than the average, but the precipitation forecast at the end of July has decreased compared with the previous period, and the temperature is relatively high, so there are still concerns about drought. Attention should be paid to the U.S. tariff trade negotiations, as an agricultural product agreement may be reached, which is conducive to boosting the export expectations of U.S. agricultural products. Under the effect of the U.S. biodiesel policy, U.S. soybean oil has risen significantly, supporting the increase in U.S. soybeans. The near - term crushing capacity utilization rate is at a high level, the spot supply is sufficient, and the rebound strength is limited. Attention should be paid to further Sino - U.S. economic and trade negotiations. If the relationship improves, it may be conducive to starting the procurement of U.S. soybeans. The Brazilian premium is stable, and the increase in the external market has raised the import cost. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may run in a slightly stronger and volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | July 18 | July 11 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1035.00 | 1007.50 | 27.50 | 2.73% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 472.00 | 467.00 | 5.00 | 1.07% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 458.00 | 452.00 | 6.00 | 1.33% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 17.41 | - 32.57 | 15.16 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3056.00 | 2976.00 | 80.00 | 2.69% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2722.00 | 2633.00 | 89.00 | 3.38% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 334.00 | 343.00 | - 9.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2900.00 | 2830.00 | 70.00 | 2.47% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2850.00 | 2820.00 | 30.00 | 1.06% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 206.00 | - 156.00 | - 50.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean market: The U.S. soybean crushing volume in June was higher than the average expectation of market analysts, and the soybean oil inventory dropped to a five - month low. As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. As of the week ending July 15, about 7% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought. The export sales of U.S. soybeans showed different trends in different periods. The 2024/2025 annual cumulative export sales volume was 5065 tons, with a sales progress of 99.8%. The 2025/2026 annual weekly export net sales were 53 tons, and the cumulative sales volume of this year was 237 tons [7][8][9]. - Brazilian soybean market: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in July was expected to be 1219 tons. The 2025 soybean production forecast in Brazil reached a record 1.697 billion tons, and the processing volume and export volume forecasts were also adjusted upwards [10][15]. - Inventory situation: As of the week ending July 11, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 657.49 tons, the soybean meal inventory was 88.62 tons, the unexecuted contracts were 548.8 tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 823.1 tons. As of the week ending July 18, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 132,540 tons, the weekly average daily pick - up volume was 185,240 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.26 days [10][11]. Industry News - Brazil's soybean export in the first two weeks of July was 4,331,243.97 tons, with an average daily export volume of 481,249.33 tons, a 1.61% decrease compared with the average daily export volume in July last year [12]. - As of the week ending July 2, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan, Canada was 58.97%. As of the week ending July 8, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 63.7%. In Manitoba, rapeseed was at different growth stages [12]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil from July 7 to July 11 was 443.58 reais per ton [13]. - As of July 13, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed import volumes were all lower than the same period last year [13]. - The 2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production was expected to remain at 3.25 million tons, and the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill to impose a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans [14]. - The U.S. renewable fuel blending credit limit in June increased compared with May. The ethanol (D6) blending credit limit was about 1.25 billion gallons, and the biodiesel (D4) blending credit limit increased from 602 million gallons last month to 629 million gallons in June [14]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 49.5 million tons [15]. Relevant Charts The report includes 28 charts, covering the trends of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, freight rates, RMB spot exchange rates, management fund CBOT net positions, soybean meal contract trends, spot prices in different regions, and various inventory and trading volume data trends [16][17][18][19][20][21][23][25][27][29][31][35][38][39][41][43][48][49]

据外媒报道，马托格罗索州农业经济研究所(IMEA)公布，马托格罗索州7月7日至7月11日当周大豆压榨 利润为443.58雷亚尔/吨，此前一周为458.28雷亚尔/吨。当周，该州豆粕价格为1482.06雷亚尔/吨，豆油 价格为5879.53雷亚尔/吨。 7月14日：全国一级豆油成交量11200吨，环比上个交易日减少17.04%。 综合来看，现阶段豆油供应充足，受天气与替代品影响需求承压，后续北半球大豆进入生长关键期，国 际大豆价格将随着主产区天气震荡运行，需关注大豆主产区天气气候变化。中长期来看，美国豆油市场 出现较大变动，生物燃料需求激增，或将影响豆油后续价格走势，且USDA预期美豆出口目标将保持对 中国市场较强的依赖性，中美下阶段磋商结果会对美豆有直接影响，需要关注关税贸易谈判动向。 国际方面，随着本周美国减税法案尘埃落定，针对生物燃料生产商的45Z抵免发放基本明确，预计将令 美国生柴利润获得显著提升，利好相应油脂原料投料需求。在较严格的原料来源限制下，美豆油需求有 望获得显著增长，将支撑其价格长线走高。国内方面，棕榈油低库存持续修复，近期国内远月买船活 跃，根据我的钢铁网数据显示，上一交易日新增11条买船 ...

Group 1 - The European Union has made good progress in negotiations with the United States regarding a principled agreement [1] - The EU aims to continue advancing trade talks on U.S. tariffs before the July 9 deadline [1] - The goal remains to reach an agreement by July 9 [1]

Core Points - Japan's Chief Trade Negotiator Akizawa Ryo is set to attend the third round of US-Japan tariff trade negotiations today [1] - Japan maintains its position on the removal of US tariffs but hopes to reach an agreement [1]

据报道，日本贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正预计将于5月22日起访问美国，参加第三轮美日关税贸易谈判。会 谈定于5月23日举行，美方将由美国贸易代表格里尔主持，财政部长贝森特预计不会出席。 ...

Group 1 - China's response to Trump's tariff policy has set an example for the world, showcasing a firm counteraction and successful negotiation leading to a favorable trade agreement [1] - Countries negotiating with the US, especially allies, are adopting a tougher stance, with Japan's Prime Minister emphasizing that Japan will not compromise its interests due to time constraints in trade talks [3] - The EU has shifted to a more assertive position, aiming for a better trade agreement than the UK and threatening retaliation against US tariffs [5] Group 2 - Currently, most countries, except the UK, are not in a hurry to reach a trade agreement with the US, preferring to prolong negotiations rather than make significant concessions [7] - The US Treasury Secretary has warned that countries not engaging sincerely in negotiations will face increased tariffs, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [7] - China stands out among countries facing US tariffs due to its significant role in global supply chains, suggesting that prolonged tariffs could harm US consumers more than China [9] - The relationship between the US and its allies is visibly strained due to Trump's tariff policies, with countries like the EU, Japan, and South Korea beginning to push back against US pressure [11]