Core Viewpoint - Trump's proposal to distribute at least $2,000 to each American from tariff revenues raises concerns about economic risks similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic stimulus checks [1][3]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Trump announced that the tariff revenue would provide $2,000 to each American citizen, excluding high-income individuals, and the remaining funds would be used to significantly pay down national debt [2][3]. - The proposal is reminiscent of the pandemic-era stimulus checks, where Trump previously pushed for increasing the amount from $600 to $2,000 [3]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The estimated total cost of the proposed "dividend" plan could reach $600 billion if designed similarly to the pandemic payments [4]. - Current U.S. tariff net revenue was $195 billion as of September, with projections of approximately $300 billion for the calendar year 2025, indicating that the proposed payments exceed the government's tariff revenue capacity [5]. Group 3: Legislative and Economic Challenges - Trump has not clarified how the $2,000 payments would be implemented or whether legislative approval would be sought, with experts noting that congressional approval is necessary [6]. - The proposal faces significant challenges, as the U.S. has not seen a federal budget surplus in over 20 years, and the current deficit is nearly $2 trillion [7]. Group 4: Legal and Alternative Considerations - The legality of Trump's tariff imposition is under review by the Supreme Court, which could impact the feasibility of the proposed payments [8]. - If tariffs are deemed invalid, it could take seven years to accumulate enough revenue to fund the proposed payments [9]. - An alternative suggestion from the Treasury Secretary indicated that the $2,000 could be reflected in tax reductions rather than direct cash payments, although this remains uncertain [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's "tariff refund" plan could cost up to $600 billion, significantly exceeding the expected tariff revenue of approximately $300 billion, raising concerns about potential inflation similar to that seen during pandemic stimulus measures [1][4][5] Group 1: Financial Implications - The proposed plan suggests distributing $2,000 to American citizens from tariff revenues, with remaining funds aimed at significantly reducing national debt [2][5] - The total cost of the "dividend" plan, if designed similarly to pandemic payments, is estimated at $600 billion, far surpassing the U.S. government's tariff revenue capabilities, which totaled $195 billion for the fiscal year ending in September [4][7] - Current U.S. tariff revenues are being utilized to limit the scale of fiscal deficits, with the national debt nearing $20 trillion and the last annual surplus occurring over 20 years ago [7] Group 2: Economic Risks and Criticism - Economists, including Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, criticize the plan as irresponsible, especially given the increasing government debt [5][6] - The proposal evokes memories of pandemic-era stimulus checks, which some economists argue contributed to severe inflation between 2021 and 2022 [3][6] Group 3: Legal and Legislative Considerations - The legality of Trump's tariff imposition is currently under review by the U.S. Supreme Court, which could impact the feasibility of the proposed refund plan [8][9] - If tariffs are deemed invalid, it may take seven years for the government to gather sufficient revenue to fund the proposed "dividend checks" [9] - Treasury Secretary Becerra hinted that the $2,000 "dividend" might be implemented as tax reductions rather than direct cash payments, indicating uncertainty about the proposal's final form [11][12]

★见闻双十一特惠活动｜会员年中最低价！26年产品新鲜出炉！点击链接详情>> 特朗普提出从关税收入中向美国公民发放2000美元的想法，不仅令人联想起新冠疫情期间的刺激支票，也可能带来了类似的经济风险。 周一，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台上发帖称，返还的关税收入将向美国公民发放2000美元，随后剩余的关税收入将被用来"大幅偿还国债"。 特朗普周一称支付2000美元后"剩余"的关税收入将用于"大幅偿还国家债务"。然而这一主张面临现实困难。 华尔街见闻此前提及，11月9日周日，特朗普在社交媒体上发文，宣称其关税政策将为"每个人带来至少2000美元的分红"，高收入人群除外。 该项提议让人直接回想起疫情时期的财政刺激措施。2020年12月，特朗普曾施压美国国会议员，要求将疫情援助支票的金额从当时批准的600美元 提高到2000美元。 如今，一些经济学家认为，正是这些过度的美国政府支出，导致美国在2021至2022年间经历了自1980年代初以来最严重的通胀。四年多过去，消 费者价格指数仍未完全恢复到疫情前水平。 成本高昂的"分红"计划 根据美国中间派监督组织"尽责联邦预算委员会"的初步计算，如果该"分红"计划参照疫情期间的支 ...

【资讯导读】 ·前三季度我国黄金消费量682.73吨同比下降7.95% ·香港计划再度启动多币种数字债券发行 ·美国国会参议院通过结束政府"停摆"的临时拨款法案 ·美联储理事米兰主张加速降息 【市场资讯】 ·中国黄金协会公布数据，今年前三季度，我国黄金消费量682.73吨，同比下降7.95%。国内黄金ETF增 仓量为79.015吨，同比增长164.03%，至9月底持仓量为193.749吨。 ·香港特别行政区政府计划再度启动多币种数字债券发行，将是自2023年以来第三次发行数字债券，前 两次规模累计达到68亿港元。 ·美国财长贝森特称，总统特朗普提出的"每位美国人至少2000美元关税返还"可借由今年已签署的经济 法案中的减税措施落实，形式包括小费免税、加班费免税、社保免税及汽车贷款利息抵扣等。 ·美国国会参议院通过一项旨在结束政府"停摆"的临时拨款法案。该法案将为政府提供资金直至2026年1 月30日。 美国众议长约翰逊预计众议院本周初复会。 ·美泰达成对等贸易框架协议：泰国取消99%商品关税，美国对泰国维持19%对等关税（部分商品零关 税）；泰国还将削减非关税壁垒，并采购美农产品与能源。 ·美国10月集装箱进 ...