另从需求端看，虽然后期内需预计向好，但外需好转力度较为有限。 2025年国内PP市场呈现单边走势，重心一路下行。卓创资讯数据显示，以华东PP拉丝为例，8月迄今的 均价在7035元／吨，环比上月走低0.92%，创下年内新低。 分析来看，虽8月临近月底有宏观消息释放支撑，但供需基本面仍表现偏弱，尤其下游新单跟进未见好 转，叠加成品库存去化缓慢，导致下游入市采购积极性受阻，市场上行阻力加大，重心再度下滑。 展望后市，传统需求旺季"金九"将至，PP市场需求能否好转，以及市场拐点何时能够到来？ 从PP基本面上分析，后期供应端预计增加，令市场上行阻力加大。这主要体现在，一方面新增产能面 临投放。据卓创资讯调研，目前宁波大榭二期二线45万吨装置已产出合格品，同时二期一线45万吨装 置，计划9月中旬投放。叠加10月中旬广西石化40万吨二期装置计划释放产能，新增产能对后期PP市场 供应冲击预期较强。 另一方面，在既有装置检修方面，上半年PP检修装置集中，但目前来看，存量装置检修力度有所减 弱，新增的计划内检修也有减少的趋势。尤其多数企业在结束上半年大修计划后，下半年多平稳运行。 往后看，随着后续天气转冷，后期装置整体检修力度预 ...

Core Viewpoint - In May, industrial and service sector production maintained rapid growth, with domestic consumption performing better than expected, while external demand slightly declined due to short-term factors [1] Group 1: Production and Demand Analysis - In May, the growth rate of industrial added value slightly decreased, primarily due to improved industrial production in late May following eased US-China negotiations [1] - The "618 shopping festival" and the policy of replacing old consumer goods significantly boosted the retail sales growth in May, although investment growth fell short of market expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Looking ahead, the current easing of US-China relations following the Geneva Joint Statement suggests that the second quarter GDP is likely to achieve rapid growth [1] - Key variables to monitor in the second half of the year include the intensity of export shipments and the resilience of consumer spending [1] - Recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing employment, increasing income, and improving livelihoods, along with the anticipated implementation of policy financial tools, are expected to support the economy in the second half of the year [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the **black metal industry**, focusing on steel and iron ore markets, along with the implications of domestic and international economic conditions on these sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Domestic Economic Conditions**: The domestic market is experiencing a shift with the introduction of new policies aimed at addressing global structural contradictions. There is a focus on how these policies will impact demand and growth trends, both internally and externally [2][4]. 2. **Steel Production and Quality**: Major steel manufacturers are transitioning towards producing higher quality steel products, including green steel initiatives. This shift is expected to enhance the overall structure and output of steel production [5][6]. 3. **Export Challenges**: The reliance on low-value steel exports is becoming increasingly unsustainable. The industry is encouraged to focus on exporting high-quality steel to maintain competitiveness and profitability [7][10]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: The iron ore market is showing signs of a downward trend, with prices dropping significantly. This is attributed to various factors, including shipping costs and market demand fluctuations [9][11]. 5. **Steel Plant Operations**: Steel plants are managing production levels carefully, avoiding overproduction despite short-term price increases. This strategic approach aims to align with annual production goals [8][10]. 6. **Profit Margins**: The profitability of steel plants is currently stable, with a focus on maintaining margins amidst fluctuating raw material costs and shipping fees [11][12]. 7. **Future Outlook**: The overall sentiment is cautious, with expectations of continued pressure on iron ore prices and steel demand. The market is anticipated to remain volatile, influenced by both domestic policies and international trade dynamics [15][21][26]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment in Infrastructure**: There is a recognition that infrastructure investment is crucial for stimulating demand in the steel sector, but current levels of new projects are not sufficient to drive significant growth [31][32]. - **Global Trade Dynamics**: The impact of tariffs and international trade relations, particularly with the U.S., is a significant concern for the steel export market. The expectation is that these factors will continue to influence pricing and demand [21][38]. - **Consumer Behavior**: Domestic consumption patterns are shifting, with a noted increase in demand for steel in technology-related sectors. This trend may provide some support for the steel market despite broader economic challenges [43][44]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the black metal industry, particularly in relation to steel and iron ore markets.