Core Insights - The second-hand car market in China shows a moderate upward trend in August 2025, with a total transaction volume of 1.7074 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.80% and a year-on-year increase of 9.02% [1] - The total transaction amount for August reached 106.517 billion yuan, while the cumulative transaction volume from January to August was 12.9384 million units, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.03% [1] Market Performance - The second-hand car market is transitioning from a low season to a peak season, with the manager index for August at 43.1%, indicating a slight improvement in market conditions [5] - The demand for family cars is increasing due to the back-to-school season, particularly for SUVs and MPVs, which saw sales growth of 3.5% and 3.1% respectively [5] - Despite challenges from adverse weather and new car launches, the overall market remains stable, with a notable increase in transaction volume during the last week of August [5] Pricing Trends - Both acquisition and sales prices for second-hand cars have decreased month-on-month, with 41.2% of managers reporting lower acquisition prices and 33.3% reporting lower sales prices [6] - The average transaction price for second-hand cars fell to 62,400 yuan, down 1,400 yuan from the previous month [6] Inventory and Supply - The trading volume of vehicles over 10 years old increased by 4% year-on-year, reaching 220,000 units [7] - The average inventory period for car dealers extended to 46 days, indicating increased pressure on cash flow due to insufficient consumer demand [7] Segment Performance - In August, basic passenger cars sold 953,000 units, with SUVs and MPVs also showing growth, while commercial vehicles like trucks and buses performed well with year-on-year increases of 15.91% and 11.84% respectively [9][10] - From January to August, the cumulative transaction volume for passenger cars reached 10.1941 million units, with notable growth in MPVs and cross-type vehicles [11] Regional Insights - The North China region saw a slight decline in transaction volume, while other regions, particularly Central South and Southwest, experienced significant growth [15][16][17] - In August, the Central South region recorded a transaction volume of 460,800 units, up 4.33% month-on-month, with Henan province leading the growth [15] Transfer Rates - The transfer rate for second-hand cars in August was 30.85%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 1.8 percentage points [20]

Market Review - The main contract for aluminum futures closed at 20,710 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.02% compared to the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - As of September 4, the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas is 140,000 tons, down by 3,000 tons from Monday, but up by 6,000 tons from last Thursday [2] - On September 4, 2025, the total aluminum rod inventory in Guangdong and Wuxi is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [2] - According to research, the preliminary value of China's primary aluminum production in August 2025 is 3.7879 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year and 0.29% month-on-month; the average daily output in August is 122,200 tons, an increase of 300 tons month-on-month [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the rapid inventory buildup in various downstream sectors ahead of the peak season in September indicates a potential for demand in the electrolytic aluminum sector to exceed expectations, with profits in the aluminum industry continuing to shift from upstream to downstream [3] - Yide Futures notes that the operating rate in the aluminum processing sector is recovering, supporting aluminum prices; however, aluminum ingot inventories remain below seasonal levels, and terminal consumption has not significantly started, indicating insufficient upward driving forces [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PP market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices hitting a new low in 2025, primarily due to weak supply and demand fundamentals [1] Supply Analysis - The supply side is expected to increase, adding pressure to the market. New production capacities are set to come online, including a 450,000-ton facility in Ningbo and another 400,000-ton facility in Guangxi, which will significantly impact supply [3] - Existing production facilities are showing reduced maintenance efforts, with fewer planned repairs expected in the second half of the year, leading to a more stable operation [3] - Overall, the supply outlook is leaning towards a loose expectation, which may suppress prices [3] Demand Analysis - Domestic demand is anticipated to improve, particularly due to seasonal factors such as holidays and the back-to-school period, which are expected to boost demand for PP in daily goods and packaging [5] - However, external demand remains uncertain, with reduced export volumes due to tariff fluctuations and previous demand being front-loaded in the first half of the year [5][6] - Despite the challenges in external demand, the overall domestic PP demand is expected to see some growth, providing strong support for the market [6] Market Outlook - Looking ahead to September, while supply is expected to increase, there is optimism regarding domestic demand, which may strengthen market fundamentals [7] - Macro factors, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, could also provide a boost to the PP market [7] - However, the overall supply pressure and cautious consumer spending may limit the extent of price increases, leading to a relatively moderate rise in prices [7]

Market Overview - As of the week ending August 22, 2025, the main contract for alumina futures closed at 3138 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest of 9466 contracts [1] - During the week of August 18-22, alumina futures opened at 3212 CNY/ton, peaked at 3237 CNY/ton, and dropped to a low of 3081 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly decline of 2.15% [1] Price and Supply Dynamics - The national average price for spot alumina was 3263 CNY/ton, remaining stable with a premium of 149 CNY/ton [2] - The FOB price for Australian alumina was 370 USD/ton, down by 1 USD/ton, indicating a closed theoretical import window [2] - As of August 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had 75953 tons of alumina warehouse receipts, an increase of 903 tons from the previous trading day [2] Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, the fundamental support for alumina is weakening, but events in Shanxi, strong foreign mineral prices, and relatively resilient spot alumina prices may limit further declines in the short term [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that alumina production capacity is at a historical high, with rising industry inventory and warehouse receipts, indicating a gradual emergence of oversupply [3] - The spot index for alumina is experiencing a downward trend, with a support level around 3000 CNY [3]

Research Views Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated strongly, with the domestic spot import window remaining open. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed internal differences, and the market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" for signals on the Fed's future interest rate cuts. Domestically, measures are being taken to stabilize the real estate market. LME and Comex inventories increased, while SHFE and BC copper inventories decreased. Seasonal demand is expected to pick up, and the market is in a balanced state awaiting external factors [1]. Aluminum - Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. Alumina's fundamental support weakened, but short - term deep declines are limited. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure on the market may ease. Aluminum ingot casting volume increased, and some terminal sectors are stocking up in advance, resulting in an unsmooth inventory build - up. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a time - for - space mode [1][2]. Nickel - LME nickel fell 0.1%, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.15%. LME inventory increased, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore premiums declined slightly, and stainless steel raw material prices were divided. The overall fundamentals changed little, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - The price of flat - water copper decreased by 340 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 1200 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons. The total weekly inventory increased by 4428 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. Lead - The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 1850 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 2510 tons [3]. Aluminum - The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the spot premium increased by 20 yuan/ton. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2529 tons. The weekly total inventory increased by 7039 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. Nickel - The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 725 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 18 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 282 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 768 tons, and the social inventory increased by 1319 tons [4]. Zinc - The主力 settlement price decreased by 0.2%. LME inventory decreased by 950 tons, and the weekly social inventory increased by 0.49 million tons [5]. Tin - The主力 settlement price increased by 0.7%. SHFE inventory decreased by 13 tons, and LME inventory increased by 85 tons [5]. Chart Analysis Spot Premium - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][13]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. Social Inventory - Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. Smelting Profit - Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng (Director of Non - ferrous Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute), Wang Heng (Non - ferrous researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon), and Zhu Xi (Non - ferrous researcher focusing on lithium and nickel) [47][48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper fluctuated higher. US inflation pressure is controllable, strengthening the expectation of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. There are differences in views on the future of US copper. The domestic "Golden September" peak - season expectation and anti - involution policy expectations support prices, and copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated strongly. In August, the profit in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. There are signs of a turn in the supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum, and the aluminum price is in a stage of trading time for space with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. The overall fundamentals changed little and showed a volatile operation [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The US 7 - month CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI reached 3.1%. The market has different views on US copper due to over - inventory. Domestic factors support prices, and copper is in a balanced state [1]. - **Aluminum**: AO2509 closed at 3287 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase, AL2509 at 20800 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and AD2511 at 20200 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3248 yuan/ton. There are changes in the supply - demand and profit distribution of the aluminum industry [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.23% to 15360 dollars/ton, Shanghai nickel rose 0.2% to 122870 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 450 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The overall fundamentals are stable [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Aluminum**: The spot premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. The total inventory decreased by 3913 tons, and the alumina inventory increased by 3.9 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 600 yuan/ton. The total nickel inventory increased by 444 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the social inventory increased by 0.77 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.9%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 22.16 dollars/ton [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [8][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [16][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel [36][38][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [43][45][47]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: The current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [50]. - Wang Heng: An analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon, providing timely policy interpretations and writing in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi: An analyst focusing on lithium and nickel, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [51].