Core Viewpoint - The coastal coal market is experiencing a rapid decline in prices due to weak demand and excessive inventory, with the Qinhuangdao coal price index reported at 671 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The inventory at Qin-Tang-Cang ports remains high at over 33 million tons, nearly 9 million tons higher than the same period last year, representing an increase of about 40% [1] - The supply-demand imbalance is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to a pessimistic market outlook and a rapid downward trend in coastal coal prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, the coastal coal market is expected to continue its downward trend due to a lack of trading activity [2] - Positive factors may emerge with the implementation of national policies to boost domestic demand and the onset of the traditional peak summer coal procurement phase, which could improve market expectations [2] - As coal prices approach the breakeven point for high-cost mines, there is an increased willingness for production adjustments, enhancing the potential for supply-demand rebalancing in the coastal coal market [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic stimulus policies this week are expected to have limited effect on boosting coal demand and are difficult to reverse the overall pattern of oversupply of thermal coal. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and it is expected that the thermal coal price will continue to run weakly in the near future [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Analysis of Thermal Coal - The intraday and medium - term reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillating". The supply is in an oversupply pattern. Although there are domestic stimulus policies, the improvement of the non - power industry atmosphere is limited, and the support for coal prices is insufficient [5] Policy Impact - On May 7, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce a series of domestic demand boosting policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the stock and property markets. However, these policies have limited impact on the coal non - power industry, which has long - term problems in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [5] Supply - side Situation - Entering the new natural month, domestic coal mines have resumed normal production, and the safety supervision environment in major production areas such as Shanxi and Shaanxi is relatively stable. In terms of imports, in April, China imported 37.825 million tons of coal and lignite, a 2.3% decrease from the previous month. Although the import volume has decreased compared with last year, it is still at a relatively high level [5] Demand - side Situation - May is the transition period between the winter and summer coal - using peak seasons, and the overall demand for thermal coal is weak. As of the end of April, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.858 million tons, a weekly increase of 93,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 2.777 million tons, a weekly decrease of 184,000 tons, and the coal consumption of power plants is at a low level within the year [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of thermal coal is to oscillate. The domestic stimulus policies have limited effect on boosting coal demand, and it is difficult to reverse the overall pattern of oversupply of thermal coal. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the thermal coal price is expected to continue to operate weakly in the near future [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - This week, there were positive domestic macro news. On May 7th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce a series of policies to boost domestic demand such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the stock and property markets [5] Supply Side - In the new natural month, domestic coal mines resumed normal production, and the safety supervision environment in major producing areas such as Shanxi and Shaanxi was stable, not causing obvious resistance to coal mine production. In terms of imports, according to customs data on May 9th, China imported 37.825 million tons of coal and lignite in April, a 2.3% decrease from the previous month. Affected by domestic coal prices, the import cost - performance of foreign coal declined, and the import volume decreased compared with last year but remained at a relatively high level [5] Demand Side - May is the transition period between the winter and summer coal - using peak seasons, and the demand for thermal coal is generally weak. As of the end of April, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.858 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 2.777 million tons, a decrease of 184,000 tons week - on - week. The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level this year [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面拖累，焦煤继续探底 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 需求存见顶预期，焦炭弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月 29 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约继续下挫，突 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 供应压力明显，焦煤偏弱震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空因素交织，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 10 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面偏空，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空博弈，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：3、4 月期间，山西暂未出现影响较大的生产事故，区域 ...