Core Viewpoint - The coastal coal market is experiencing a rapid decline in prices due to weak demand and excessive inventory, with the Qinhuangdao coal price index reported at 671 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The inventory at Qin-Tang-Cang ports remains high at over 33 million tons, nearly 9 million tons higher than the same period last year, representing an increase of about 40% [1] - The supply-demand imbalance is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, leading to a pessimistic market outlook and a rapid downward trend in coastal coal prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, the coastal coal market is expected to continue its downward trend due to a lack of trading activity [2] - Positive factors may emerge with the implementation of national policies to boost domestic demand and the onset of the traditional peak summer coal procurement phase, which could improve market expectations [2] - As coal prices approach the breakeven point for high-cost mines, there is an increased willingness for production adjustments, enhancing the potential for supply-demand rebalancing in the coastal coal market [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic stimulus policies this week are expected to have limited effect on boosting coal demand and are difficult to reverse the overall pattern of oversupply of thermal coal. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and it is expected that the thermal coal price will continue to run weakly in the near future [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Market Analysis of Thermal Coal - The intraday and medium - term reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillating". The supply is in an oversupply pattern. Although there are domestic stimulus policies, the improvement of the non - power industry atmosphere is limited, and the support for coal prices is insufficient [5] Policy Impact - On May 7, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce a series of domestic demand boosting policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the stock and property markets. However, these policies have limited impact on the coal non - power industry, which has long - term problems in the real estate and infrastructure sectors [5] Supply - side Situation - Entering the new natural month, domestic coal mines have resumed normal production, and the safety supervision environment in major production areas such as Shanxi and Shaanxi is relatively stable. In terms of imports, in April, China imported 37.825 million tons of coal and lignite, a 2.3% decrease from the previous month. Although the import volume has decreased compared with last year, it is still at a relatively high level [5] Demand - side Situation - May is the transition period between the winter and summer coal - using peak seasons, and the overall demand for thermal coal is weak. As of the end of April, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.858 million tons, a weekly increase of 93,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 2.777 million tons, a weekly decrease of 184,000 tons, and the coal consumption of power plants is at a low level within the year [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of thermal coal is to oscillate. The domestic stimulus policies have limited effect on boosting coal demand, and it is difficult to reverse the overall pattern of oversupply of thermal coal. The market sentiment remains pessimistic, and the thermal coal price is expected to continue to operate weakly in the near future [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - This week, there were positive domestic macro news. On May 7th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce a series of policies to boost domestic demand such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and stabilizing the stock and property markets [5] Supply Side - In the new natural month, domestic coal mines resumed normal production, and the safety supervision environment in major producing areas such as Shanxi and Shaanxi was stable, not causing obvious resistance to coal mine production. In terms of imports, according to customs data on May 9th, China imported 37.825 million tons of coal and lignite in April, a 2.3% decrease from the previous month. Affected by domestic coal prices, the import cost - performance of foreign coal declined, and the import volume decreased compared with last year but remained at a relatively high level [5] Demand Side - May is the transition period between the winter and summer coal - using peak seasons, and the demand for thermal coal is generally weak. As of the end of April, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 1.858 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons week - on - week; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 2.777 million tons, a decrease of 184,000 tons week - on - week. The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level this year [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of both coking coal and coke futures are "oscillation", while the intraday views are "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is to adopt an oscillatory trading strategy. For coking coal, due to the loose supply situation and limited short - term macro - upward driving force, the futures price is under pressure. For coke, although the short - term demand is acceptable, there is an increasing expectation of a phased peak in demand, and the drag from the coking coal cost side also affects the price [1][5][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For coking coal 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation and weakening" respectively, with an oscillatory trading idea. The core logic is that the fundamentals are dragging down, and coking coal continues to bottom out [1]. - For coke 2509, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation and weakening" respectively, with an oscillatory trading idea. The core logic is that there is an expectation of a peak in demand, and coke is operating weakly [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Performance**: On the night of April 29, the main coking coal contract continued to decline, breaking through the previous low, with a 1.71% decline during the night session, and the price closed at 920.0 yuan/ton. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week comparison, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1008 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply Situation**: From March to April, the safety supervision environment of coal mines in Shanxi was relatively stable, and the production maintained a high level. In March, the raw coal production in Shanxi increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and in April, the coal production in Shanxi continued to operate at a high level, expected to still record a year - on - year positive growth. In addition, the import volume of Mongolian coal in April improved significantly compared with March [5]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous growth of coking coal production and the high - level operation of imports put pressure on prices. Coupled with limited short - term macro - upward driving force, coking coal futures will continue to operate weakly [5]. 3.2.2 Coke (J) - **Price Performance**: On the night of April 29, the main coke contract continued to decline, approaching the previous low, with a 0.68% decline during the night session, and the price closed at 1542.5 yuan/ton. The latest quotation of the quasi - first - grade flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week comparison, and the cost of the equivalent futures warehouse receipt is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing both supply and demand, and the increase in the demand side was relatively obvious. The short - term fundamentals of coke are acceptable, and the main futures contract maintains a low - level oscillatory operation [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: There are still strong macro - disturbances. On the one hand, the Sino - US trade friction has been repeated in April, and there is still strong uncertainty about the future development of the tariff dispute. On the other hand, China's domestic demand boosting policies are expected to be introduced soon. The Political Bureau Meeting of the CPC Central Committee on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the short - term demand for coke is acceptable, as the "Golden March and Silver April" is coming to an end and steel mill profits are shrinking, the expectation of a phased peak in coke demand is increasing. Coupled with the drag from the coking coal cost side, coke futures will oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic domestic demand boosting policies [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation and weakening". The reference view for both is an "oscillation approach" [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Cost**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1008 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply Situation**: In March and April, the coal mine safety supervision environment in Shanxi was relatively stable, and the output remained at a high level. In March, Shanxi's raw coal output increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and in April, it continued to operate at a high level. In April, the Mongolian coal import volume improved significantly compared with March. The supply is still loose, and the fundamentals are overall bearish [5] - **Market Performance**: The supply - side pressure is high, the market sentiment is bearish, the futures are oscillating at a low level, and it drags down the coke trend. Attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic demand - boosting policies [5] Coke (J) - **Price and Cost**: The latest quotation of quasi - first - class flat - price coke at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: This week, coke continued the pattern of increasing both supply and demand, and the increase in the demand side was obvious. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the futures main contract oscillates at a low level [6] - **Macro Factors**: In April, Sino - US trade frictions were repeated, and there is strong uncertainty about the future development of tariff disputes. China's domestic demand - boosting policies are expected to be introduced, and the Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies [6] - **Market Outlook**: Although the short - term fundamentals are good, there is an expectation that hot metal production will peak and decline, and the coking coal supply is loose. The market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that coke futures will oscillate at a low level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the changes in domestic and international macro - atmosphere [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for both coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) are mainly "oscillation". Coking coal has a short - term, medium - term "oscillation" and intraday "oscillation - weak" view, with an overall "oscillation" approach. Coke also has short - term, medium - term "oscillation" and intraday "oscillation - weak" view, following an "oscillation" approach [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: In March and April, there were no major production accidents in Shanxi, and the coal mine safety supervision environment was relatively stable with high production levels. In March, Shanxi's raw coal production increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and in April, it continued to run at a high level with expected year - on - year positive growth. Also, Mongolia coal imports in April improved compared to March. The supply of coking coal remains loose with a bearish fundamental. The latest quotation of Mongolia coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 1008 yuan/ton. Due to strong macro disturbances and increased long - short game, the main contract of coking coal maintains low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to domestic demand - boosting policies [5]. Coke - **Core Logic**: This week, coke shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the main futures contract maintains low - level oscillation. However, there are strong macro disturbances. There are repeated Sino - US trade frictions in April with high uncertainty, and China's domestic demand - boosting policies are expected. The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive macro policies. In the long - run, the cost drag from loose coking coal supply and concerns about terminal demand limit the rebound space of coke futures. But short - term macro disturbances and marginal improvement in coke's own fundamentals support the price. The main coke contract is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to domestic policy [6].