风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 2025/10/17 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,950.00 0.30% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,100.00 -0.06% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -150.00 60.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -10.00 -10.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -44.99 -0.90 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -88.30 2.60 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -30.00 -120.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -5.00 15.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -10.00 -5.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 32,242.00 -21.85% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 41,899.00 -4.84% 成交持仓比 / 0.77 -17.87% LME库存 吨 0.00% 252,000.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 0.00% 32,007.00 LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 1,971.50 -0.73% 沪伦铅 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 2025/9/26 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 0.00% 16,950.00 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,090.00 0.15% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -140.00 -25.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - -10.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -36.80 3.28 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -79.80 -2.50 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -30.00 5.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 - -25.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -10.00 -25.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 46,256.00 6.76% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 62,847.00 2.91% 成交持仓比 / 0.74 3.74% LME库存 吨 0.00% 219,550.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 35,584.00 -6.75% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 2,009.00 0.32% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.51 -0.18% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - For lead, downstream has not entered the peak season, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, but scrap batteries remain tight, losses of secondary lead smelters are expanding, and the start - up is uncertain. Some enterprises have suspended shipments, so the lead price has strong support below, and it will maintain range consolidation in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of the demand side and macro uncertainties [1]. - For zinc, after the zinc price drops, downstream buyers place orders at low prices, and spot trading has improved. The Shanghai zinc price has stopped falling and rebounded. However, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of the zinc price may be limited, and it will maintain range consolidation in the short term. The strategy is still to short on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Spread**: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,925.00 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price is 17,165.00 yuan/ton, up 1.24%; Shanghai lead basis is - 240.00 yuan/ton, down 35.00 yuan; various spreads and premiums have different changes [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Futures active contract trading volume is 36,222.00 lots, up 5.29%; open interest is 15,153.00 lots, down 22.53%; trading volume to open interest ratio is 2.39, up 35.91% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 275,250.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory is 44,667.00 tons, up 0.97% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, scrap lead - acid battery prices are rising, recyclers' supplies are limited, and secondary lead smelters are forced to raise prices. Some smelters reduce or stop production due to raw material shortages or cost inversions, and the start - up is at a relatively low level. Some enterprises hold back goods due to losses, and the secondary lead finished product inventory continues to increase. On the demand side, it is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchases are expected to improve [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,130.00 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price is 22,045.00 yuan/ton, up 0.57%; Shanghai zinc basis is 85.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan; various spreads and premiums have different changes [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Futures active contract trading volume is 158,531.00 lots, down 14.77%; open interest is 129,865.00 lots, up 6.91%; trading volume to open interest ratio is 1.22, down 20.28% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 122,875.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory is 7,169.00 tons, down 4.04% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees continue to rise. The raw material shortage's restriction on smelter production has weakened, and the cost - side support has weakened. On the demand side, the south is gradually entering the rainy season, and terminal construction is restricted, so downstream purchases of zinc ingots are for rigid demand [1]. Other Information - Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Non - ferrous Metals Co., Ltd.'s "Nanhua" brand lead ingots are approved to be registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a registered production capacity of 11.6 tons and subject to the standard price [1]. - As of the end of May, the total number of 5G base stations reached 4.486 million, a net increase of 235,000 from the end of last year, accounting for 35.3% of the total number of mobile base stations, 0.4 percentage points higher than in the previous four months [1]. - On June 24, [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of 20.17 US dollars/ton, with an open interest of 212,837 lots, an increase of 2,923 lots; [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 24.13 US dollars/ton, with an open interest of 153,024 lots, a decrease of 1,007 lots [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead remains stable, providing some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to face downward pressure due to weakened demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to show an overall oscillatory trend. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,992.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.5 US dollars. - The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 83,287 lots, up 363 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 553 lots, up 1,565 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 45,503 tons, unchanged. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 49,811 tons, up 1,875 tons; the LME lead inventory is 264,975 tons, down 3,775 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 135 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 25.93 US dollars/ton, up 1.74 US dollars. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,071 yuan, up 275 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,630 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 69.83%, down 1.05 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 34,800 tons, down 200 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 40 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. - The lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 640 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. - The average market price of waste batteries is 10,119.64 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. - The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,649.24 points, up 1.57 points. - The monthly automobile output is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There are various international news including potential US government bans on entry of citizens from 36 countries, trade - related news such as possible tariff agreements between the US and other countries (UK, EU, India, etc.), the situation of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the US's decision to postpone sanctions on Russia [3].