Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead**: The supply - tight pattern has improved, with some demand released in advance in September. Lead ingot inventory accumulation pressure is high, and prices may be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. With the continuous depletion of LME zinc inventory and the deepening of the LME 0 - 3 back structure, be vigilant against overseas structural risks. It is also recommended to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.30% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai lead closed down 0.06% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,971.50 per ton, down 0.73%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.67, up 0.68% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, it has not significantly affected refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead refineries fluctuates slightly. The production of some previously - shut - down secondary lead refineries has resumed, increasing supply. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious [1]. - **Industry News**: A medium - large secondary lead refinery in Central China has gradually resumed production, with a daily refined lead output of 300 tons. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $44.09 per ton, and the open interest increased by 10,976 to 152,739 lots [1]. **Zinc** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.41% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed down 0.34% from the previous day. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,968 per ton, up 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.39, down 1.26% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic zinc concentrate is more favored by refineries. The profit and production enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and production is increasing. Demand has not improved significantly, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Industry News**: Guatemala terminated the anti - dumping investigation on galvanized sheets from China. A zinc mine in North China bid again this week, with the winning bid price at 3,850 yuan per metal ton (including 20 - 80 split), a decrease of 650 yuan per metal ton compared with the previous period. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $139.83 per ton, and the open interest increased by 4,285 to 223,801 lots [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For lead: Temporarily hold off on trading, take a wait - and - see approach [1] - For zinc: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1] 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose 0.15%. The supply of lead concentrate imports has no expected increase, and the processing fee is likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the start - up of primary lead fluctuates slightly. The start - up of secondary lead is less than 30% due to factors such as raw materials and losses, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and the peak - season effect is not evident. It is expected that the lead price will remain high in the short term, but the upside space may be limited. [1] - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose 0.23% from the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract rose 0.85%. Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply is showing an increasing trend, and the demand has slightly improved but may be affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3 support the zinc price, and the downside space may be limited in the short term. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,950 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; the futures main contract closing price is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; the Shanghai lead basis is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 lead premium is - 36.80 dollars/ton, up 3.28 dollars; the futures active contract trading volume is 46,256 lots, up 6.76%; the futures active contract open interest is 62,847 lots, up 2.91%; the LME inventory is 219,550 tons with 0.00% change; the Shanghai lead warrant inventory is 35,584 tons, down 6.75%; the LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,009 dollars/ton, up 0.32%; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.51, down 0.18% [1] - **Industry News**: A large recycled lead refinery in Inner Mongolia has slow raw material inventory accumulation and plans to resume production after mid - October. Some large recycled lead refineries in Anhui have no pre - holiday resumption plans. On September 24, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.08 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 468 lots to 160,130 lots [1] Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 21,800 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures main contract closing price is 22,045 yuan/ton, up 0.85%; the Shanghai zinc basis is - 245 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 zinc premium is 53.93 dollars/ton, down 5.71 dollars; the futures active contract trading volume is 158,280 lots, up 44.24%; the futures active contract open interest is 131,286 lots, down 7.46%; the LME inventory is 43,800 tons with 0.00% change; the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory is 56,583 tons, down 1.35%; the LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,922.50 dollars/ton with 0.00% change; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 7.54, up 0.85% [1] - **Industry News**: Kaz Mineral's zinc concentrate metal output in Q2 2025 was 11,100 tons, and the total in the first half of 2025 was 20,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9%. As of September 25, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 150,400 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from September 18 and 6,600 tons from September 22. On September 24, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 59.64 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 794 lots to 215,283 lots [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - For lead, downstream has not entered the peak season, there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, but scrap batteries remain tight, losses of secondary lead smelters are expanding, and the start - up is uncertain. Some enterprises have suspended shipments, so the lead price has strong support below, and it will maintain range consolidation in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of the demand side and macro uncertainties [1]. - For zinc, after the zinc price drops, downstream buyers place orders at low prices, and spot trading has improved. The Shanghai zinc price has stopped falling and rebounded. However, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of the zinc price may be limited, and it will maintain range consolidation in the short term. The strategy is still to short on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Spread**: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,925.00 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price is 17,165.00 yuan/ton, up 1.24%; Shanghai lead basis is - 240.00 yuan/ton, down 35.00 yuan; various spreads and premiums have different changes [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Futures active contract trading volume is 36,222.00 lots, up 5.29%; open interest is 15,153.00 lots, down 22.53%; trading volume to open interest ratio is 2.39, up 35.91% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 275,250.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warrant inventory is 44,667.00 tons, up 0.97% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, scrap lead - acid battery prices are rising, recyclers' supplies are limited, and secondary lead smelters are forced to raise prices. Some smelters reduce or stop production due to raw material shortages or cost inversions, and the start - up is at a relatively low level. Some enterprises hold back goods due to losses, and the secondary lead finished product inventory continues to increase. On the demand side, it is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchases are expected to improve [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,130.00 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price is 22,045.00 yuan/ton, up 0.57%; Shanghai zinc basis is 85.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan; various spreads and premiums have different changes [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Futures active contract trading volume is 158,531.00 lots, down 14.77%; open interest is 129,865.00 lots, up 6.91%; trading volume to open interest ratio is 1.22, down 20.28% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 122,875.00 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warrant inventory is 7,169.00 tons, down 4.04% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees continue to rise. The raw material shortage's restriction on smelter production has weakened, and the cost - side support has weakened. On the demand side, the south is gradually entering the rainy season, and terminal construction is restricted, so downstream purchases of zinc ingots are for rigid demand [1]. Other Information - Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Non - ferrous Metals Co., Ltd.'s "Nanhua" brand lead ingots are approved to be registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a registered production capacity of 11.6 tons and subject to the standard price [1]. - As of the end of May, the total number of 5G base stations reached 4.486 million, a net increase of 235,000 from the end of last year, accounting for 35.3% of the total number of mobile base stations, 0.4 percentage points higher than in the previous four months [1]. - On June 24, [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of 20.17 US dollars/ton, with an open interest of 212,837 lots, an increase of 2,923 lots; [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 24.13 US dollars/ton, with an open interest of 153,024 lots, a decrease of 1,007 lots [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead remains stable, providing some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to face downward pressure due to weakened demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to show an overall oscillatory trend. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,992.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.5 US dollars. - The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 83,287 lots, up 363 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 553 lots, up 1,565 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 45,503 tons, unchanged. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 49,811 tons, up 1,875 tons; the LME lead inventory is 264,975 tons, down 3,775 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 135 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 25.93 US dollars/ton, up 1.74 US dollars. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,071 yuan, up 275 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,630 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 69.83%, down 1.05 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 34,800 tons, down 200 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 40 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. - The lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 640 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. - The average market price of waste batteries is 10,119.64 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. - The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,649.24 points, up 1.57 points. - The monthly automobile output is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There are various international news including potential US government bans on entry of citizens from 36 countries, trade - related news such as possible tariff agreements between the US and other countries (UK, EU, India, etc.), the situation of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the US's decision to postpone sanctions on Russia [3].