| 铅锌日评20250626：区间整理 | | --- | | 2025/6/26 指标 今值 变动 近期趋势 单位 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,925.00 1.04% | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,165.00 1.24% | | 元/吨 沪铅基差 -240.00 -35.00 | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -35.00 -10.00 | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -21.37 2.76 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -60.40 4.10 | | 价差 元/吨 -25.00 -20.00 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 10.00 10.00 | | 铅 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 15.00 10.00 | | 期货活跃合约成交量 手 36,222.00 5.29% | | 成交持仓 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 15,153.00 -22.53% | | 成交持仓比 / 2.39 35.91% | | LME库存 吨 275,250.00 0.00% | | 库存 | | LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead remains stable, providing some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to face downward pressure due to weakened demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. It is expected that Shanghai lead will continue to show an overall oscillatory trend. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,992.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.5 US dollars. - The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 83,287 lots, up 363 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 553 lots, up 1,565 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 45,503 tons, unchanged. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 49,811 tons, up 1,875 tons; the LME lead inventory is 264,975 tons, down 3,775 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 135 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 25.93 US dollars/ton, up 1.74 US dollars. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,071 yuan, up 275 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,630 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 69.83%, down 1.05 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 34,800 tons, down 200 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 40 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. - The lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 640 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. - The average market price of waste batteries is 10,119.64 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. - The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,649.24 points, up 1.57 points. - The monthly automobile output is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There are various international news including potential US government bans on entry of citizens from 36 countries, trade - related news such as possible tariff agreements between the US and other countries (UK, EU, India, etc.), the situation of the Israel - Iran conflict, and the US's decision to postpone sanctions on Russia [3].