Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and the import window is open, improving the supply shortage. Thus, there is significant upward pressure on lead prices. It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, the back structure of LME zinc has weakened, reducing overseas structural risks. Zinc prices lack continuous upward momentum. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities brought by the rebound of the SHFE - LME ratio. In the medium - term, the mine end will tighten in the fourth quarter, and TC is likely to fall, which may affect the supply side and provide some support for zinc prices. It is advisable to wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.29% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract rose by 0.49% [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, with small fluctuations in primary lead production. The operation rate of recycled lead refineries has recovered to over 50%, increasing supply. The terminal market has improved, and the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is acceptable, increasing demand. However, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Continue to hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.31% compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc main contract fell by 0.22%. The premium of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased to 2,650 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 98.37 US dollars/dry ton. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an expected monthly output of about 600,000 tons. The demand side has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The lead price is under pressure and may oscillate downward due to weakening downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and good refinery profits with an open import window [1]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has some support at the bottom but limited upward momentum. The domestic mine supply pattern has tightened, and the terminal demand is weak. The Fed's hawkish stance on interest - rate cuts also suppresses the zinc price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead Market** - **Prices**: The SMM1 lead ingot average price remained flat, and the Shanghai lead futures main - contract closed 0.17% higher than the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) price was unchanged at $2,025/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio rose 0.17% to 8.60 [1]. - **Supply**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead refineries have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in production. The supply of secondary lead has increased as previously - shut - down refineries resume production [1]. - **Demand**: The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises' operations are stable, with an increase in demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions [1]. **Zinc Market** - **Prices**: The SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.32%, and the Shanghai zinc futures main - contract rose 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio rose 0.94% to 7.40 [1]. - **Supply**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc - ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc - concentrate processing fees may continue to decline in October. Refinery production is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month [1]. - **Demand**: There is no significant improvement in demand. The zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London price ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [1]. **Other Information** - In Shandong's Binzhou, the subsequent vehicle trade - in subsidy activity will implement a "qualification first, subsidy application later" policy from November 5 to December 31, 2025 [1]. - In Guangdong's Shaoguan, the Phase I mining project for resource integration at the Fankou Lead - Zinc Mine started, with a total investment of 830 million yuan and expected annual revenue increase of over 400 million yuan after reaching full production [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead**: The supply - tight pattern has improved, with some demand released in advance in September. Lead ingot inventory accumulation pressure is high, and prices may be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. With the continuous depletion of LME zinc inventory and the deepening of the LME 0 - 3 back structure, be vigilant against overseas structural risks. It is also recommended to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.30% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai lead closed down 0.06% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,971.50 per ton, down 0.73%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.67, up 0.68% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, it has not significantly affected refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead refineries fluctuates slightly. The production of some previously - shut - down secondary lead refineries has resumed, increasing supply. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious [1]. - **Industry News**: A medium - large secondary lead refinery in Central China has gradually resumed production, with a daily refined lead output of 300 tons. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $44.09 per ton, and the open interest increased by 10,976 to 152,739 lots [1]. **Zinc** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.41% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed down 0.34% from the previous day. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,968 per ton, up 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.39, down 1.26% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic zinc concentrate is more favored by refineries. The profit and production enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and production is increasing. Demand has not improved significantly, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Industry News**: Guatemala terminated the anti - dumping investigation on galvanized sheets from China. A zinc mine in North China bid again this week, with the winning bid price at 3,850 yuan per metal ton (including 20 - 80 split), a decrease of 650 yuan per metal ton compared with the previous period. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $139.83 per ton, and the open interest increased by 4,285 to 223,801 lots [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight situation has improved, some demand was released in September, and there is a large inventory build - up pressure. With the resurgence of tariff disturbances, lead prices may face pressure again. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For zinc, overseas LME zinc inventories are at an absolute low, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens, providing some support for zinc prices. However, the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak, and with the resurgence of tariff disturbances and strong macro - risk aversion sentiment, non - ferrous metals may face pressure again. The trading strategy is also to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 17,140 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 215 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 75.20 dollars/ton, with a change of - 6.90 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 36,308 hands, down 9.68%; open interest was 44,795 hands, up 9.05%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.81, down 17.18% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 30,068 tons, unchanged [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 2,014.50 dollars/ton, down 0.30%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.51, up 0.44% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, SMM primary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 68.47%, unchanged; secondary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 34%, up 5.6 percentage points; lead - acid battery enterprise weekly operating rate was 61.71%, up 6.58 percentage points [1]. - A Hunan electrolytic lead smelter planned a 11 - day production maintenance in October, with an expected reduction of 2,000 - 2,400 tons in October electrolytic lead output [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 40 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, up 33.65 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 174,778 hands, up 27.36%; open interest was 106,534 hands, down 5.93%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.64, up 35.39% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 60,644 tons, up 3.02% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,984.50 dollars/ton, down 0.98%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.46, up 0.78% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, galvanized enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.82%, down 1.83 percentage points; die - cast zinc alloy enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.51%, down 0.35 percentage points; zinc oxide enterprise weekly operating rate was 56.08%, down 1.24 percentage points [1]. - On October 10th, LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, and open interest was 220,239 hands, down 54 hands [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current state of the lead market, including spot and futures prices, inventory levels, and strategic recommendations for trading [1] Group 2 - On August 5, 2025, LME lead spot premium was reported at -47.86 USD/ton, while SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased to 16,600 CNY/ton, a drop of 100 CNY/ton compared to the previous change [1] - The Shanghai lead futures market saw the main contract open at 16,750 CNY/ton and close at 16,775 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 25 CNY/ton [1] - Total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from the previous week, while LME lead inventory stood at 272,975 tons, down by 1,100 tons [1] Group 3 - The article suggests a cautious bullish strategy, recommending to attempt buying on dips within the range of 16,000 - 16,300 CNY/ton for hedging purposes, while advising to pause on arbitrage strategies [1] - Risks mentioned include a significant increase in domestic supply, lower-than-expected consumption, and tightening overseas liquidity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lead prices experienced a rise followed by a decline, with the Shanghai lead index closing up 0.08% at 16,944 CNY/ton [1] Market Performance - As of last Friday, the London lead price increased by 12.5 to 1,950.5 USD/ton, with total positions at 148,500 lots [1] - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,875 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, resulting in a price difference of 25 CNY/ton [1] - The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,400 CNY/ton [1] Inventory and Supply - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded lead ingot futures inventory at 38,000 tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 48,800 tons [1] - LME lead ingot inventory stood at 277,900 tons, with 161,300 tons in canceled warrants [1] - The cash-3S contract basis was -21.19 USD/ton, and the 3-15 price difference was -70.3 USD/ton [1] Production and Demand - The primary smelting operating rate was recorded at 66.23%, with primary ingot factory inventory at 13,000 tons [1] - Recycled lead inventory was 76,000 tons, with weekly production of recycled lead ingots at 38,000 tons and factory inventory at 19,000 tons [1] - The operating rate of lead-acid batteries was 73.56% [1] Market Outlook - Overall, lead ore inventory is increasing, primary production remains high, and scrap inventory is limited, leading to pressure on recycling profits and some reduction in output from recycling plants [1] - The lead ingot factory inventory accumulation is faster than previous years due to extended holidays [1] - The mid-term outlook for the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within the range of 16,300 to 17,800, with short-term lead prices showing a weak oscillation [1]