策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.11.25） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：震荡 中期观点：震荡 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 宏观方面，美联储官员关于降息的看法存分歧。受美联储官员鸽派言 论影响，12 月美联储降息概率再次上升。 供给方面，全球铜精矿供应格局持续偏紧，但远期供应压力因格拉斯 伯格铜矿重启计划而有望缓解。国内冶炼企业因加工费（TC）深度倒挂而 陷入严重亏损，导致部分炼厂检修，精炼铜产量受限。欧洲电解铜溢价创 纪录高位后回落至 120 美元/吨，暗示海外供应趋紧的格局仍然持续。 需求方面，国内铜材开工率有所回升，出口表现强劲，但内需仍显分 化。空调行业排产大幅下滑，传统消费领域疲软；而新能源汽车销量保持 高增长，成为用铜需求的重要支撑。高铜价对下游采购情绪形成抑制，企 业多以按需采购为主，观望情绪较浓。 库存方面，全球显性库存呈现分化态势。LME 库存同比下降 43%，但近 期有所累积；COMEX 库存则同比增长 3.5 倍，反映库存向美国转移的趋势。 国内上期所仓单虽处低位，但整体库存压力有限。 展望后市，铜市多空因素交织。美联储预期提振铜价，但不确定 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead**: The supply - tight pattern has improved, with some demand released in advance in September. Lead ingot inventory accumulation pressure is high, and prices may be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. With the continuous depletion of LME zinc inventory and the deepening of the LME 0 - 3 back structure, be vigilant against overseas structural risks. It is also recommended to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.30% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai lead closed down 0.06% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,971.50 per ton, down 0.73%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.67, up 0.68% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, it has not significantly affected refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead refineries fluctuates slightly. The production of some previously - shut - down secondary lead refineries has resumed, increasing supply. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious [1]. - **Industry News**: A medium - large secondary lead refinery in Central China has gradually resumed production, with a daily refined lead output of 300 tons. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $44.09 per ton, and the open interest increased by 10,976 to 152,739 lots [1]. **Zinc** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.41% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed down 0.34% from the previous day. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,968 per ton, up 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.39, down 1.26% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic zinc concentrate is more favored by refineries. The profit and production enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and production is increasing. Demand has not improved significantly, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Industry News**: Guatemala terminated the anti - dumping investigation on galvanized sheets from China. A zinc mine in North China bid again this week, with the winning bid price at 3,850 yuan per metal ton (including 20 - 80 split), a decrease of 650 yuan per metal ton compared with the previous period. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $139.83 per ton, and the open interest increased by 4,285 to 223,801 lots [1]