Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to enter a high - level oscillation phase, with multiple long and short factors at play. The Fed's expectations boost copper prices, but uncertainties bring potential risks. The supply - side disturbances and structural support from the new energy sector provide bottom - line resilience [1][2]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. Overseas supply shortages and low inventory levels will continue to provide support, while the domestic off - season demand restricts the upward price space. The zinc market may present mainly structural opportunities [3][4]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range. Although the inventory is at a high level, the firmness of polysilicon boosts the price of industrial silicon [5]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain high in the short term and fluctuate within a range in the medium term. The implementation of new energy - consumption standards will improve the supply - demand pattern [6]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high in the short term and rise with oscillations in the medium term, despite high supply and inventory pressures [8]. - Refined tin prices are expected to remain high. Global tin ore supply shortages and low domestic processing fees provide support for tin prices [9][10]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Macro**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut has increased again due to dovish remarks [1]. - **Supply**: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, but long - term pressure may ease. Domestic smelters are in losses, leading to production restrictions. Overseas supply remains tight [1]. - **Demand**: Domestic copper product start - up rates have rebounded, with strong exports, but domestic demand is divided. New energy vehicles support copper demand, while high prices suppress downstream purchasing [1]. - **Inventory**: Global visible inventories show a differentiated trend, with LME inventories down 43% year - on - year and COMEX inventories up 3.5 times [1]. - **View and Strategy**: Intraday and medium - term views are both oscillatory, with an oscillatory operation strategy [1]. Zinc - **Macro**: Fed rate - cut expectations are divided, and the probability of a December rate cut has decreased. The US government shutdown risk has eased, but the impact on zinc prices is limited [3]. - **Supply**: Global zinc concentrate supply is tightening, with falling processing fees. Domestic imports have decreased, and domestic mine supply is also tightening [3]. - **Demand**: The pattern is "strong overseas, weak domestic". Galvanized sheet exports support zinc prices, while domestic demand improvement is limited [3]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory is at a historically low level, while domestic inventory is higher than last year [3]. - **View and Strategy**: Intraday and medium - term views are both oscillatory, with an oscillatory operation strategy and a strategy of selling wide - straddle option combinations [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: In October, China's industrial silicon output was 452,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [5]. - **Demand**: In October, polysilicon output was 134,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 548,000 tons, at a seven - year high [5]. - **View and Strategy**: Short - term view is range - bound (8,900 - 9,000), medium - term view is also range - bound (8,800 - 9,300), with a bullish strategy [5]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: In October, polysilicon output was 134,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [6]. - **Demand**: In October, China's silicon wafer output was 60.5GW, a year - on - year increase of 31.36% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, the social inventory of polysilicon was 271,000 tons and is still accumulating [6]. - **Policy Impact**: New energy - consumption standards will reduce effective domestic polysilicon production capacity, improving the supply - demand pattern [6]. - **View and Strategy**: Short - term view is high - level operation (53,000 - 54,000), medium - term view is range - bound (50,000 - 60,000), with a bullish strategy [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Price**: On November 24, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) dropped 270 yuan to 92,100 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5,920 yuan in the past 5 days and 19,030 yuan in the past 30 days [8]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, China's battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 68,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67% [8]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 84,234 tons, still at a high level [8]. - **News Impact**: News of a lithium mine's potential复产 led to a limit - down in lithium carbonate futures on November 21 [8]. - **View and Strategy**: Short - term view is high - level operation (90,000 - 92,000), medium - term view is oscillatory upward (80,000 - 100,000), with a bullish strategy [8]. Refined Tin - **Supply**: Myanmar's Wa State's resumption of production is difficult, and Indonesia is cracking down on illegal tin mining, intensifying global tin ore supply shortages [9]. - **Processing Fee**: As of November 24, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Jiangxi was 8,000 yuan/ton, at a low level [10]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, the SHFE tin inventory was 5,884 tons [10]. - **View and Strategy**: Short - and medium - term views are high - level operation (280,000 - 300,000), with a strategy of selling SN2601 - P - 260000 [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead**: The supply - tight pattern has improved, with some demand released in advance in September. Lead ingot inventory accumulation pressure is high, and prices may be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. With the continuous depletion of LME zinc inventory and the deepening of the LME 0 - 3 back structure, be vigilant against overseas structural risks. It is also recommended to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.30% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai lead closed down 0.06% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,971.50 per ton, down 0.73%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.67, up 0.68% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, it has not significantly affected refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead refineries fluctuates slightly. The production of some previously - shut - down secondary lead refineries has resumed, increasing supply. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious [1]. - **Industry News**: A medium - large secondary lead refinery in Central China has gradually resumed production, with a daily refined lead output of 300 tons. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $44.09 per ton, and the open interest increased by 10,976 to 152,739 lots [1]. **Zinc** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.41% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed down 0.34% from the previous day. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,968 per ton, up 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.39, down 1.26% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic zinc concentrate is more favored by refineries. The profit and production enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and production is increasing. Demand has not improved significantly, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Industry News**: Guatemala terminated the anti - dumping investigation on galvanized sheets from China. A zinc mine in North China bid again this week, with the winning bid price at 3,850 yuan per metal ton (including 20 - 80 split), a decrease of 650 yuan per metal ton compared with the previous period. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $139.83 per ton, and the open interest increased by 4,285 to 223,801 lots [1]