021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 1 月 16 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：1月15日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 oscillated and rebounded, recovering most of the previous day's losses. The steel price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, and it is advisable to try to buy for hedging or investment at low prices [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On January 12, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 oscillated and rebounded. The closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, and SS2603 increased by 0.60%, 0.55%, and 1.21% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to some extent [5]. - **Spot Market**: On January 12, the prices of individual rebar spot markets fluctuated, and the prices of a small number of hot-rolled coil spot markets rebounded. The price of rebar in Hangzhou market rose by 20 yuan/ton, while that in Zhengzhou market fell by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and other markets rose by 10 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract changed from a weak dead cross to a weak golden cross, and the daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract rose. The daily MACD red bars of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2605 contracts turned slightly larger [7]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Message**: Geopolitical turmoil has caused the prices of precious metals and some non-ferrous metal commodities to rise significantly and then fall back. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, and coking coal futures in the black series have become hedging chips, but smart funds have begun to lay out medium- and long-term positions [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: The output of the five major steel products has increased for two consecutive weeks, but the demand has significantly shrunk to the lowest level since mid-October last year and late February last year. Due to the weekly supply exceeding demand, the social inventory has rebounded from the lowest level since late January last year. The cost of steel still has strong support [9]. 3.4 Industry News - Baosteel Zhanjiang Iron and Steel's No. 5 heavy slab continuous caster was fully completed and put into operation on January 9. - Honglu Steel Structure's cumulative new sales contract amount in 2025 was about 29.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.84%, and the steel structure product output was about 5.0207 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.30%. - Tangshan Port expects to complete a total cargo throughput of 242 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. - Fushun Special Steel completed the absorption and merger of its wholly-owned subsidiary Xinxing Plate. - Xinji Energy's preliminary estimated operating income in 2025 was 12.343 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.02%. - Huayang Co., Ltd. stated that coal prices are affected by multiple factors and are volatile. - Jiangsu Province plans to arrange 670 major provincial projects in 2026, with an annual planned investment of 664.6 billion yuan. - Guangxi's 2026 annual long-term agreement transaction was successfully concluded, with a cumulative transaction electricity volume of 66.534 billion kilowatt-hours. - Mongolia's coal exports in 2025 reached 89.7093 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.11%. - Australia's coal export value in November 2025 was 5.644 billion Australian dollars, a month-on-month increase of 2.81%. - JSW Steel's crude steel output in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 (October - December 2025) reached 7.48 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. - India's coal production in December 2025 was 101 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.66% [10][11]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of the five major steel products, the inventory of steel mills, the blast furnace opening rate, the electric furnace opening rate, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and May contracts [13][14][32].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: January 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Black Metal Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - **Futures Contracts on January 6**: RB2605 closed at 3111 yuan/ton with a -0.06% change, HC2605 at 3263 yuan/ton with a 0.18% change, and SS2602 at 13395 yuan/ton with a 1.82% change. Their trading volumes were 841,618, 439,684, and 137,101 hands respectively, and the capital inflows/outflows were 0.39 billion, -0.33 billion, and -0.68 billion yuan respectively [5] - **Spot Market on January 6**: Most prices in the main rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. Rebar prices in some markets were stable, while others dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in Tianjin dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and in other markets, they were stable or dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [8] - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract continued to decline with a blunted J-value. The daily KDJ indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract showed a divergent trend. The daily MACD red bar of the rebar 2605 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive days, approaching a death cross. The daily MACD indicator of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract had a death cross the previous day with a slightly enlarged green bar [8] Group 3: Market Outlook - **News Impact**: Geopolitical turmoil led to a significant increase in the prices of precious metals and some non-ferrous metals. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, and coking coal futures in the black metal sector became hedging chips due to their oversupply situation. However, smart money has started to lay out long-term positions at low prices [9][10] - **Fundamentals**: The production of the five major steel products stopped falling and rebounded, and demand also slightly increased. Due to the weekly supply being less than demand, social inventories continued to decline, reaching a new low since late January last year. The iron ore price reached a new high since late February last year and then declined, while the 4th round of spot coke price cuts was implemented. The steel cost remained relatively stable [10] - **Overall Outlook**: News factors may cause the steel price to be weak in the near term but still have recovery potential. From a fundamental perspective, the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market will be weak first and then strong, and a continuously bearish view is not advisable [10] Group 4: Industry News - **Power Generation**: As of December 31, 2025, Guangxi Guiguan Electric Power Co., Ltd. completed a cumulative power generation of 46.142 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.68%. In December 2025, Changyuan Electric Power completed a power generation of 2.38 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 40.54% [11] - **Mineral Resources**: On the evening of January 5, Yongtai Energy announced that the "aluminum under coal" mineral resource reserves of its subsidiary Shanxi Qinyuan Kangwei Sendaoyuan Coal Industry Co., Ltd. were officially approved by the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources [11] - **Policy**: The General Office of the Henan Provincial People's Government issued policies to promote the economic development in the first quarter of 2026, including promoting the construction of energy infrastructure and aiming to complete an investment of 24 billion yuan in full-scale energy infrastructure physical volume in Q1 2026 [11] - **Port and Shipping Data**: As of December 31, Ganqimaodu Port completed a total import and export freight volume of 43.0585 million tons. In December 2025, Russia's seaborne coal exports were 12.3557 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 17.57%. In November 2025, Indonesia's coal exports were 49.3632 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.38% [11][12] - **Antitrust Investigation**: India's antitrust investigation found that 25 companies, including Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and Steel Authority of India, colluded on steel prices [12] Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes data charts on steel production, inventory,开工 rates, iron water production, and consumption, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]