期货市场交易指引 2025 年 10 月 09 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 逢低买入 | | ◆黄金： | 逢低买入 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; bullish on glass, suggesting buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, suggesting waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pull - back; neutral on nickel, suggesting waiting or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, suggesting range trading; suggesting a short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy for soda ash [1][22][25][27][30][33][34][37] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting range trading; neutral on PTA, suggesting range trading; bullish on apples, suggesting a range - bound and upward - biased trend; bearish on jujubes, suggesting a range - bound and downward - biased trend [1][38][39][40][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting shorting on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting range trading; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting range trading; bullish on oils, suggesting a high - level range - bound trend with a buying - on - dips strategy [1][42][44][47][49][50] Core Views - The global economic and policy environment, including factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, trade policies, and domestic macro - policies, have a significant impact on various futures markets [11][13][18][22][25][37][43][44][47][50][53][54][55] - Seasonal factors, supply - and - demand fundamentals, and cost factors are important considerations for investment decisions in different futures markets [8][10][11][13][18][22][25][31][39][40][43][44][47][49][50][51][52][53][54][55] - Different futures varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific market conditions, such as range trading, buying on dips, shorting on rallies, and arbitrage strategies [1][5][7][8][9][11][13][15][16][18][19][21][22][24][26][28][30][33][34][36][38][39][40][42][44][46][48][50][55] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share markets experienced a pull - back after a rally on Friday. Policy support is positive, and it is recommended to rebalance in high - probability areas. Medium - to long - term outlook is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market is gradually recovering from previous adjustments, but investors remain cautious. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Pit - mouth coal price increases have slowed, and the market is in a stalemate. A range - trading strategy is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded on Friday. The fundamental supply - and - demand situation is weak in the short term, but traditional demand seasons may bring opportunities. A range - trading strategy is recommended with a focus on support levels [8] - **Glass**: Supply and demand conditions have improved. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and potential positive factors, a buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are rising in a range. With weakening of the US dollar and potential consumption recovery, prices are expected to remain strong. A range - trading or buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is supported, and the production of aluminum is stable. Demand is entering the peak season, and a buying - on - dips strategy or an arbitrage strategy is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: Supply concerns and macro - factors affect prices. In the short term, prices are affected by the macro - environment, and in the long term, supply is in surplus. A shorting - on - rallies strategy is recommended [18] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to be supported. A range - trading strategy is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: Due to weakening US economic data and expectations of interest - rate cuts, prices are expected to have support. A range - trading strategy is recommended [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Supply is high, demand is mediocre, and exports face challenges. Prices are expected to be range - bound, and key factors such as macro - data and exports should be monitored [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by factors such as spot prices and demand. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and downstream stocking and export conditions should be monitored [25] - **Styrene**: Cost and demand factors influence prices. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as oil prices and supply - and - demand fundamentals should be monitored [27] - **Rubber**: Overseas raw material prices are falling, and market sentiment is bearish. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and support levels should be monitored [29] - **Urea**: Supply and demand are weak, and inventories are increasing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be monitored [30][31][33] - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Key factors such as coal prices and downstream demand should be monitored [33] - **Polyolefins**: The "Golden September and Silver October" season may boost demand, but supply and cost factors limit price increases. A range - trading strategy is recommended [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a tug - of - war between expectations and reality. A short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy is recommended [37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - and - demand conditions are improving, but new - crop production may bring downward pressure. Hedging preparations are recommended [38] - **PTA**: Recent inventory reduction is good, but long - term supply increases and weak oil prices may lead to price drops. A range - trading strategy is recommended [39][40] - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are priced higher than last year, and the market is expected to be range - bound and upward - biased [40] - **Jujubes**: Consumption is weak, and prices are under pressure. A range - bound and downward - biased trend is expected [41] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large in the short term, and prices are under pressure. Policy support may bring some rebounds. A short - selling strategy with stop - profit and potential arbitrage opportunities is recommended [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as cold - storage egg releases and chicken culling [44] - **Corn**: New - crop supply and cost factors affect prices. A range - trading strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended, and factors such as weather and policies should be monitored [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to be stable, and domestic supply - and - demand conditions are changing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and key factors such as US - China trade relations should be monitored [48][49][50] - **Oils**: Short - term prices are affected by various factors, but support levels exist. A buying - on - dips strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended [50][51][52][53][54][55]