| | | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | | 收盘价 | #2 == 10 % | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | | | 云川 (%) | | | 沪深300 | 4490 | -0.74 | IF当月 | 4481 | -0.7 | | | 上证50 | 2993 | 0.39 | IH当月 | 2993 | 0.4 | | | 中证500 | 6962 | -2.09 | IC当月 | ୧୫୨୧ | -1.7 | | | 中证1000 | 7314 | -2.50 | IM当月 | 7251 | -1.8 | | | IF成交量 | 195366 | 35.4 | IF持仓量 | 298335 | 79 | | | IH成交量 | 80614 | 47.7 | IH持仓量 | 109749 | 13.2 | | | IC成交量 | 172836 | 36.5 | IC持仓量 | 254784 | 8.0 | | H | IM成交量 | 337746 | 34.1 | IM持仓量 | 401271 | 6.9 | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITCE KIT | 品种 | 收盘价 | 我即一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较削一 日本 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 4524 | 0.60 | IF当月 | 4511 | 0.1 | | 上证50 | 2981 | 0.16 | IH当月 | 2980 | 0.0 | | 中证500 | 7110 | 0.94 | IC当月 | 7015 | 0.3 | | 中证1000 | 7501 | 0.84 | IM当月 | 7381 | 0.2 | | IF成交量 | 144297 | -27.7 | IF持仓量 | 276618 | -5.7 | | IH成交量 | 54597 | -33.0 | IH持仓量 | તે જેવે રેણવે તાલુકામાં આવેલું એ તાલુકામાં આવેલું એ તાલુકામાં આવેલું એ તાલુકામાં આવેલું એ તાલુકામાં આવેલું એ | -10.2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the market focuses on upcoming US economic data for policy clues, with concerns about the Fed's independence. The US dollar index and Treasury yields are generally weak, and global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The 90 - day extension of the tariff truce between China and the US and increased US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and strengthen domestic easing expectations. However, short - term market sentiment has cooled, and domestic risk appetite has significantly declined. The market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally but sentiment weakening. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - For assets, the stock index has corrected from its short - term high, and short - term cautious observation is recommended. Treasury bonds are oscillating at a high level, and cautious observation is needed. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and precious metals are all in short - term oscillations, and cautious observation is advised [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The economic data in July slowed down and missed expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies in September. The 90 - day extension of the tariff truce and increased US easing expectations reduce external risks and strengthen domestic easing expectations. However, short - term market sentiment has cooled. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening but sentiment weakening. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated narrowly on Wednesday. The market focuses on Friday's PCE data to assess the Fed's policy path. Economists expect a 2.6% increase in PCE in July, the same as in June. After Powell's dovish signal, the market expects a more than 87% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. The manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high, but initial jobless claims rose. The increase in key capital goods orders in July exceeded expectations. The rate - cut expectation is further strengthened, providing short - term support for gold, but beware of the Fed's changing attitude [4][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets weakened, with low trading volumes. The stock market correction increased risk - aversion sentiment, dragging down the black sector. Real - world demand continued to weaken, inventories of construction steel and hot - rolled coils increased, and apparent consumption declined. Supply increased slightly. Near the end of the month, there is more pressure for capital repatriation and sales. The steel market is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term [6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot price of iron ore remained flat, and the futures price declined slightly. With high steel mill profits, hot - metal production continued to decline slightly. In the next week, northern regions will have different degrees of production restrictions, and steel mills are cautious in purchasing. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Mainstream Australian powder resources are stably supplied, but traders are reluctant to sell, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The port inventory decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production of construction steel and hot - rolled coils increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys is currently okay. The price of silicon manganese 6517 is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the north and 5770 - 5820 yuan/ton in the south. In the south, production is increasing, but factories are in a wait - and - see state due to the falling futures price. The price of manganese ore is weak. The price of silicon iron in the main production areas is 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton for 72 - grade natural lumps and 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton for 75 - grade. Some silicon - iron enterprises are profitable and have high production enthusiasm. Ferroalloy prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7][8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Wednesday, the main soda - ash contract oscillated weakly. Last week, production increased due to the return from maintenance. In the new capacity - release cycle, there is supply pressure, and the oversupply pattern remains. New devices will be put into production in the fourth quarter. High supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, and downstream demand support is still weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and the supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [9]. - **Glass**: On Wednesday, the main glass contract oscillated weakly. Last week, production and the number of operating production lines remained stable. The real - estate industry is still weak, and demand is hard to improve. Downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand remained stable. Profits decreased as the glass price fell. With stable supply and limited demand growth, glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: US data shows that core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military equipment) increased by 1.1% last month. As factors such as export rush, PV pre - installation, and the marginal effect of trade - in policies decline, domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the strong copper price will not last [11]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the aluminum price rose and then fell. There was no news for the night - session surge, which was likely driven by the copper price. The aluminum price increase was greater than that of copper, but it fell during the day as commodities weakened. Aluminum's fundamentals changed little, with social inventory increasing by 20,000 tons and a cumulative increase of 170,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory also continued to increase. There is limited medium - term upward space, and it will oscillate in the short term, lacking a strong downward driver but with a weakening rebound foundation [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants face raw - material shortages, with rising production costs. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [11]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mine supply is currently tight, but the reduction in refined tin production is less than expected. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, and capacity utilization may decline. With the issuance of mining licenses, the mine supply will tend to be loose. African tin imports decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak. PV pre - installation has overdrawn future demand, and new PV installations are weakening. The operating rates of PV glass and PV solder strips have declined. Overall, downstream orders are scarce. The price decline has stimulated downstream restocking, and inventory decreased by 802 tons to 9,278 tons, but downstream buyers are still cautious, only making purchases for immediate needs. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main lithium - carbonate contract 2511 fell by 0.23%, with a new settlement price of 80,000 yuan/ton and a reduction of 3,104 lots in weighted contracts, and a total position of 757,900 lots. The battery - grade lithium - carbonate price is 79,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the industrial - grade is 78,450 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CIF price of Australian lithium spodumene is 920 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The profit from purchasing lithium spodumene for production is 1,988 yuan/ton. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main industrial - silicon contract 2511 fell by 1.56%, with a new settlement price of 8,540 yuan/ton, a position of 516,800 lots in weighted contracts, and a reduction of 9,286 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the futures price is at a discount of 775 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China 421 and East China oxygen - containing 553 is 250 yuan/ton. Recently, black metals and polysilicon have weakened, and industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 fell by 4.89%, with a new settlement price of 49,715 yuan/ton, a position of 334,600 lots in weighted contracts, and an increase of 14,137 lots. The price of N - type re -投料 is 49,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the P - type cauliflower - like material is 30,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.24 yuan/piece (unchanged), the M10 single - crystal TOPCon battery is 0.292 yuan/watt (unchanged), and the 210mm N - type module is 0.68 yuan/watt (unchanged). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased to 6,880, reflecting increased hedging pressure. The polysilicon output in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It broke through support in the short term, with a bearish direction. Attention should be paid to the spot support below [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US crude and fuel inventories decreased, alleviating concerns about imminent supply over - capacity. Although the absolute price is still in a range, the spread of WTI has widened to the largest in over a week, and Cushing inventory decreased for the first time in 8 weeks, with a national inventory reduction of 2.4 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The US increased tariffs on some Indian goods, but Indian refineries plan to maintain most purchases, so short - term supply concerns are hard to ease, and there is still significant medium - and long - term downward pressure on oil prices [16]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price decreased slightly as the market followed the decline of anti - involution leading varieties. The asphalt spot market has slightly recovered, and the decline of the basis has paused. However, social and factory inventories have not significantly decreased, and profits have slightly recovered with a significant increase in production. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. With limited inventory reduction, asphalt is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern in the near term [16]. - **PX**: After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, the tight PX situation will provide obvious support at the bottom. Benefiting from petrochemical capacity adjustment, but with the PX plant load at a medium - low level, it is still in a tight pattern in the short term. The PXN spread is currently 266 US dollars, and the PX overseas price has rebounded to 864 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [16]. - **PTA**: The PTA price decreased with position reduction as the market declined. However, domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments have stabilized the energy - chemical sector in the short term. The temporary shutdown of the Huizhou plant due to environmental requirements provides some support, and the basis remains at +30. Downstream production has recovered to 90%, and the restocking pace has accelerated before the peak season. PTA may have a slight inventory reduction in September and is expected to maintain a strong oscillation pattern in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol gave back some previous gains and oscillated narrowly in the short term. Port inventory decreased slightly to 500,000 tons. Domestic restrictions on petrochemical capacity and new - project approvals will limit supply. However, the basis has not significantly recovered. The increase in downstream production will support ethylene glycol at the bottom, but the supply pressure is still large after the resumption of synthetic - gas - based plants. It is necessary to wait for verification of peak - season demand. When going long at low prices, attention should be paid to crude - oil cost fluctuations [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price decreased slightly as the sector declined. Terminal orders have seasonally increased, and short - fiber production has slightly rebounded, with limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in production. In the medium term, short - fiber can be short - sold along with the polyester sector [18]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have pressured the price. As the port price falls, the back - flow window is about to open, providing some support for the spot. MTO plants plan to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching. The methanol fundamentals show marginal improvement, but the oversupply pattern has not changed, and the price is expected to oscillate [18]. - **PP**: The increase in plant operation and upcoming new capacity have increased supply pressure. Downstream production has slightly increased, and demand is showing signs of recovery. There is significant fundamental pressure, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season stocking [18]. - **LLDPE**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is showing a turning point. The "supply - side" speculation provides some price support. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term bearish. Attention should be paid to demand and stocking [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1048.25, down 1.25 or 0.12% (settlement price 1047.50). The weather in the US core soybean - producing areas in August has been favorable, and the overall soybean quality rate remains high. With the increasing likelihood of a US soybean harvest, the futures price is under pressure. Market news indicates that China will send a delegation to the US for trade negotiations this week, boosting US soybean export expectations. Additionally, increased US Treasury bond selling and a weaker US dollar provide some macro - level support for US soybeans [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure on domestic oil mills to accumulate soybean and soybean meal inventories has eased. Market news suggests that this week's China - US trade negotiations will focus on soybean purchases, further stabilizing supply expectations. In the third quarter, preventive purchases have ensured sufficient soybean supply, but supply may tighten in the fourth quarter, with stable cost - based support. Rapeseed meal currently has high - inventory circulation pressure, but with low rapeseed inventory and few far - month purchases, there is still potential for price increases. Attention should be paid to the development of China - Canada trade relations [21]. - **Edible Oils**: The port inventory of rapeseed oil is continuously decreasing. With few imported rapeseed purchases and low inventory in China, the supply is expected to contract strongly. The cost expectation of soybean oil has strengthened, and a low - valuation price increase is expected. The palm oil production cycle is in progress, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. There is no short - term incremental consumption expectation from policies, and the bullish market may enter an oscillation phase [21]. - **Corn**: The national corn price is running weakly. The arrival of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased over the weekend, and enterprise prices were slightly reduced. In September, the pricing weight of new - season corn will increase, and the C2511 contract has entered the price range of last year's opening price, 2100 - 2200 yuan/ton. There is no pressure from a large - scale arrival as in last year, with low carry - over inventory and the risk of excessive rainfall in the main producing areas. Although the planting cost has decreased this year, due to policies to stabilize the prices of important agricultural products and increase farmers' income, it is unlikely to break through last year's price range. The futures price is currently in a relatively undervalued range, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [22]. - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs for slaughter is sufficient, and slaughterhouses have low purchasing pressure. The reduction in supply in some provinces has a limited impact on enterprise purchases, with a slight upward trend. There may be local emotional - driven price increases in the north tomorrow. In the south, demand supports the price, and the market is stable. Currently, secondary fattening is generally cautious, with limited restocking. As a result, the buffer space for large - scale future slaughter is reduced, and market pessimism about the fourth - quarter outlook is increasing [22].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - After consecutive strong rallies, with the phased realization of macro - level positives, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down, and market volatility and adjustments should be watched out for [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market and Operation - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.40% with an 8.17bp increase, DR007 at 1.55% with a 3.67bp increase, GC001 at 1.03% with a 75.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.43% with a 19.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.57% with a 0.20bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.37% with a 1.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.56% with a 1.25bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.71% with a 1.50bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.38% with a 4.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 3310 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. This week, there are 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, but government bond issuances and certificate of deposit maturities are lower than last week, and month - end fiscal expenditures may speed up, which could bring incremental funds to the inter - bank market [3]. Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 4076 with a 1.82% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2776 with a 1.54% decrease, the CSI 500 at 6226 with a 1.40% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 6661 with a 0.85% decrease. The trading volume of the two markets was 19360 billion yuan, an increase of 918 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally declined, with energy metals, steel, coal, mining, photovoltaic equipment, real estate development, shipbuilding, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries leading the decline [3]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF's current - month contract closed at 4070 with a 1.8% decrease, IH's at 2777 with a 1.6% decrease, IC's at 6187 with a 1.3% decrease, and IM's at 6612 with a 0.9% decrease. IF's trading volume was 156196 with a 13.2% increase, IH's was 75925 with a 7.0% increase, IC's was 119559 with a 13.6% increase, and IM's was 267774 with a 15.8% increase. IF's open interest was 270987 with a 1.4% decrease, IH's decreased, IC's was 227163 with a 1.2% decrease, and IM's was 348264 with a 0.5% increase [3]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF's current - month contract had a premium of 3.10%, IH's had a discount of - 1.23%, IC's had a premium of 15.22%, and IM's had a premium of 17.89% [5].

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is bearish, indicating that the price center will move down in the medium to long term [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market news is scarce, and oil prices maintain a volatile performance. The expectation of the summer consumption peak season is gradually weakening, and in the medium to long term, the supply - demand situation still shows a loosening trend, leading to a downward shift in the price center [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Price Changes**: SC crude oil decreased by 3.59% to 512.9 yuan/barrel, Brent crude oil dropped by 2.35% to 67.6 dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil fell by 1.45% to 65.07 dollars/barrel [3][4]. - **Inventory Changes**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 316.9 million barrels to 419 million barrels, with a decline of 0.75%. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels [3]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Changes**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 27.36% to 110,980 tons [4]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Performance**: This week, oil prices closed lower, reaching a three - week low. The market is worried about the weakening US economy, and the expectation of the summer consumption peak season is cooling. OPEC+ may increase production at the next meeting, resulting in a generally weak oil price performance [6]. - **Spread Analysis**: The monthly spread weakened, while the internal - external spread remained stable. The forward curve showed a relatively strong performance at the near - end. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of jet fuel remained stable [9][21][29]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Supply Side** - **OPEC and Non - OPEC Countries**: In June 2025, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production increased compared to May [59]. - **US Production**: As of the week ending July 18, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day, while crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day [84]. - **Demand Side** - **US Demand**: The refinery operating rate rose by 1.60% to 95.50%, and the implied demand for gasoline and distillates increased [122]. - **China Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units increased [131]. - **Inventory Side** - **US Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while Cushing inventory increased. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [3][96]. 3.4 Macro - finance - The US dollar index rebounded, and the yield of US Treasury bonds increased. The EU and the US are expected to reach a framework trade agreement, and the third - round China - US trade negotiation will focus on extending the tariff truce period and geopolitical issues [3]. 3.5 CFTC Positions - The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [154].

Report Summary 1. Market Data - DR001 closed at 1.36 with a -9.56bp change, DR007 at 1.49 with a -1.66bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a 4.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.47 with a -1.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with a -0.20bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.35, 1.52, and 1.68 respectively, with changes of 0.25bp, 1.65bp, and 1.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.44 with a -3.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 1707 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 2262 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 555 billion yuan [3] - This week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 2000 billion yuan of MLF maturing on July 25 and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits maturing on July 22 [4] 2. Stock Index Data - The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed at 4086, 2772, 6161.3, and 6612.3 respectively, with changes of 0.67%, 0.28%, 1.01%, and 0.92% [5] - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' closing prices and changes are presented, along with their volume and open interest changes [5] - The trading volume of the A - share market reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1289 billion yuan from last Friday, with most sectors rising and the banking sector falling [5] 3. Core Views - With the end of the tax - payment period, inter - bank market funds are abundant [4] - The upcoming policies for ten key industries and the start of a major hydropower project are positive factors [6] - Domestic and overseas factors are generally positive, with A - share liquidity and market sentiment strong, and stock indices expected to be bullish [6] 4. Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the oil price will show a volatile trend [3]. Core View - Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season, the oil price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Geopolitical factors in the short - term are positive, while macro - financial factors are negative. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand still have a loosening trend, and the price center will move down [3]. Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,460 million barrels per day, an increase of 180 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In June 2025, OPEC's production increased by 21.9 - 42 million barrels per day compared to May, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production also increased [3]. - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different outlooks on demand. EIA expects the global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 to be 10,354 million barrels per day, an increase of 80 million barrels per day compared to 2024. IEA continues to lower the demand growth rate forecast [3]. - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: As of the week ending July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a decline of 0.91%. There were also changes in refined oil and gasoline inventories [3]. - **Oil - Producing Countries' Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC plans to increase production by 55 million barrels per day in September and then start a new round of production increase of 166 million barrels per day. UAE aims to reach a production capacity of 5 million barrels per day in 2027 [3]. - **Geopolitical Factors (Short - Term)**: The EU has reached an agreement on the 18th sanctions package against Russia, and Trump has put forward requirements for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. These measures may affect Russia's oil exports [3]. - **Macro - Financial Factors (Short - Term)**: Trump is promoting the collection of at least 15% - 20% tariffs in agreements with the EU, which may have a negative impact on the oil market [3]. - **Investment View**: In the short term, supported by the consumption peak - season expectation, the market shows a relatively strong oscillation. In the medium - to - long - term, supply and demand tend to be loose, and the price center will move down [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rallies. For arbitrage, go long on SC2509 and short on SC2510 [3]. Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Supported by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the impact of sanctions on Russia, international oil prices maintained a relatively strong oscillation. As of July 18, WTI crude oil rose by 2.25 US dollars per barrel (+3.38%), Brent crude oil rose by 2.12 US dollars per barrel (+3.09%), and SC crude oil rose by 10.4 yuan per barrel (+2.07%) [6]. - **Month - Spread and Internal - External Spread**: The month - spread strengthened, while the internal - external spread weakened [8]. - **Forward Curve**: The near - end performance was relatively strong [20]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of aviation kerosene was stable [23][33]. Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In June 2025, OPEC's production increased, and non - OPEC countries' production also increased. US weekly crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease in the week ending July 11 [53][79]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while Cushing inventories increased. Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][89]. - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased, and refinery operating rates remained high. In China, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries increased, and the capacity utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units rebounded [106][115]. - **Macro - Financial**: The US dollar index rebounded, and US Treasury yields increased [137]. - **CFTC Position**: The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [147].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Core View - The Shanghai copper market continued its weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment showed an external weakness and internal strength situation. There was no obvious change in the fundamentals. The copper price was in a volatile range as both the macro and fundamental factors provided no clear directional guidance [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market continued to show a weak and volatile trend. The U.S. dollar index fluctuated sharply due to Trump's remarks about the Fed chair. Domestically, the premier's meeting on strengthening the domestic market circulation policy made related industrial products rise. The inventory in China decreased by 0.43 million tons this week, the 08 - 09 spread of the Shanghai copper market turned to contango, and the lme0 - 3 contango expanded to 64. The support from the spot market in both Shanghai and London continued to weaken [11]. 2. Industry News - Rio Tinto's copper production in Q2 2025 was 22.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 9%. Its annual production guidance for 2025 was 78 - 85 million tons, and the output was expected to reach the upper limit of the guidance [12]. - The brass rod market was under pressure. Small enterprises mainly produced continuous casting rods for the real - estate sector, facing insufficient demand and production cuts. Large enterprises had more orders for extrusion rods, but small enterprises had difficulty entering this field due to high production thresholds [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after a strong breakthrough, the stock index is more likely to strengthen and fluctuate under the drive of sentiment and liquidity. Attention should be paid to macro incremental information for guidance on the stock index direction. In the long - term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Overseas, the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. - In the future, the central bank may continue to reasonably supplement liquidity through over - renewal of MLF or in combination with reverse repurchase tools in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase, GC001 at 2.14 with a 175.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.69 with a 34.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.63 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.50bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.49 with a 0.50bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.65 with a 0.10bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.29 with a 3.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2205 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1110 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature. The central bank will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on the 25th, with 1820 billion yuan maturing, achieving a net injection of 1180 billion yuan for the fourth consecutive month. Combining with reverse repurchase operations, the net injection of medium - term liquidity is 3180 billion yuan [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.37% to 3936.1, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.16% to 2712, the CSI 500 rose 0.88% to 5915.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.26% to 6356.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 14869 billion yuan, a decrease of 542 billion yuan from last Friday. Industries such as aerospace, gaming, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, medical services, electronic chemicals, jewelry, small metals, and communication equipment led the gains, while only the securities, banking, cement building materials, and airport sectors declined [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 rose 0.4%, IH当月 rose 0.3%, IC当月 rose 0.6%, and IM当月 rose 0.8%. The trading volume and positions of all four futures contracts decreased, with IF trading volume down 26.4%, IH trading volume down 31.3%, IC trading volume down 13.7%, and IM trading volume down 11.4%. IF positions decreased by 3.8%, IH positions by 9.1%, IC positions by 3.4%, and IM positions by 5.7% [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF premium/discount rates for the current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.29%, 8.64%, 5.76%, and 4.34% respectively; IH are 14.20%, 6.73%, 3.82%, and 1.72% respectively; IC are 17.96%, 12.96%, 11.17%, and 9.52% respectively; IM are 23.35%, 16.93%, 14.72%, and 12.79% respectively [7].