投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 俄乌和平协议摇摆，国际油价震荡表现 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:俄乌和平协议摇摆，国际油价震荡表现 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 偏空 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,597万桶/日，较2024年上升 280万桶/日。(2)OPEC:10月份OPEC国家原油产量为2846万桶/日，较9月份上升3.3万桶/日，Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1456.4万桶/日，较9月份 | | | | 下降10.6万桶/日。（3）IEA：10月份OPEC国家原油产量为2938万桶/日，较9月份下降32万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main theme. The medium - to long - term approach for the index is to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is currently in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and the impact of liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metal prices are expected to oscillate. Some metals have strong price support due to supply - demand relationships, while others may face downward pressure due to factors such as over - supply or weak demand [12][14][16]. - The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are likely to continue weak oscillations in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand later [33]. - The prices of most energy - chemical products are expected to oscillate. Some products may have short - term upward or downward trends due to factors such as supply - demand changes and cost fluctuations [54][55]. - The prices of most agricultural products are expected to oscillate. Some products may face downward pressure due to over - supply, while others may have short - term upward potential due to factors such as production reduction expectations [73][82]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: There are over 150 humanoid robot enterprises in China, and the NDRC encourages the development of new energy storage and hydrogen energy technologies. OPEC+ may reach an agreement on a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum production capacity. JPMorgan Chase has upgraded the rating of A - shares to "overweight" [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After recent declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. The long - term approach is to go long on dips, with technology growth as the main theme [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had positive changes. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The NDRC has arranged special treasury bonds for "two major" construction projects. The central bank conducted a net injection of 564 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Thursday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In October, the economic data on both the supply and demand sides were weak. The growth rate of social financing may remain weak at the end of the year. The central bank is maintaining an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the fourth quarter [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose, and COMEX gold and silver prices also had certain trends. The market is mainly concerned about the Fed's subsequent personnel changes and monetary policy expectations. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in December is 86.9% [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has rebounded. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and the RMB has slightly depreciated. LME copper prices have declined, and domestic copper inventories have decreased. The import loss of domestic copper has widened [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The probability of an interest - rate cut by the Fed in December is high, but there are still uncertainties in the geopolitical situation. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 86,200 - 87,800 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have corrected. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories have decreased, and LME aluminum inventories have also decreased [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low, and the price support is strong. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The price may strengthen after adjustment. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,400 - 21,700 yuan/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. Domestic and LME zinc inventories have certain trends, and the import loss of zinc ingots is relatively large [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc ore imports declined significantly in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period of smelters. However, it is expected to loosen marginally after stockpiling. The zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index declined. Domestic and LME lead inventories have certain trends, and the import profit of lead ingots is relatively small [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, and the export of lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to decline at a slower pace in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel pig iron have certain trends, and the supply of refined nickel raw materials is expected to increase [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for tin prices. The inventory has increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 280,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declined. The price of the LC2605 contract also declined [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic production has declined, and inventory has decreased. There are differences in the market's expectations for next year's demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 91,200 - 99,600 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly. The price of overseas ore has declined, and the inventory of futures has decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of overseas ore is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting industry has an over - supply situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract declined. The prices of spot and raw materials remained stable, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market price is stable, and the sales of 300 - series stainless steel are relatively good. However, the consumption in related fields is weak, and the inventory removal speed is slow. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory of domestic aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the inventory in factories increased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The prices of spot rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar have both declined, and the inventory has been continuously removed. The production of hot - rolled coils has increased, and the inventory removal is slow. The export of steel to South Korea may be affected. Steel prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract rose slightly. The price of spot iron ore and the basis have certain trends [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipment of iron ore has decreased, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. The inventory of iron ore is relatively high, and the price is expected to oscillate. If the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline in the short term [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract rose slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda - ash main contract rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is increasing, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand for glass is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply of soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to remain weak [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The prices of spot manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon also decreased [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The risk appetite of the market has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have declined. However, the expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed in December has rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial - silicon futures rose slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price of polysilicon futures declined, and the inventory increased [43][45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of industrial silicon is declining, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate. The production of polysilicon is declining, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [44][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The flood in Thailand's rubber - producing areas is a positive factor, but the subsequent rainfall has decreased. The inventory of exchange - traded RU is low [48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. It is recommended to partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude - oil and refined - oil futures rose. The US EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and some refined oils has increased [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the supply of OPEC has not increased significantly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol futures rose, and the basis decreased. The price of spot methanol also increased [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The potential positive factors of Iran's plant shutdown have been realized, and the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate after the positive factors are realized [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea futures rose, and the basis decreased. The price of spot urea also increased [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of urea is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. The supply is relatively high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure - benzene futures remained unchanged, and the basis increased. The price of styrene futures declined, and the basis decreased [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC futures rose, and the basis decreased. The cost of PVC remained stable, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PVC is in an over - supply situation, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene - glycol futures declined, and the basis decreased. The inventory of ethylene glycol remained unchanged [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation may slow down. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA futures declined, and the basis decreased. The inventory of PTA decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to remain high in the short term. The processing fee of PTA has limited upward space, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [64]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of PX futures declined, and the basis increased. The inventory of PX increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load of PX remains high, and the inventory is difficult to continuously remove. The valuation of PX is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE futures declined, and the basis increased. The inventory of PE decreased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The valuation of PE has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. It is recommended to short the LL - 1 - 5 spread on rallies [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP futures rose, and the basis decreased. The inventory of PP decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is seasonally oscillating. The inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported after the supply - over - supply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price mainly declined. The market demand is increasing slowly, and the supply of hogs is abundant [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The theoretical supply of hogs is still large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse - spread trading [73]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion speed is average [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg - price futures have rebounded in advance, but the spot price has not followed up as expected. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct reverse - spread trading in the near - term and far - term contracts, and short on rallies in the medium term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean market was closed due to a holiday. The domestic soybean - meal price was stable, and the inventory increased [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global supply of soybeans has decreased, and the domestic soybean inventory is at a high level. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and the production has increased. The domestic oil price rebounded [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The over - supply of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [79][80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated strongly. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is at a relatively low level [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [82]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. The downstream spinning - mill operating rate decreased, and the global cotton production increased [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the market has digested the negative impact of high yields. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main line. The medium - to long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall volatile trend. Pay attention to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased. The overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the further driving force will be released in December. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of volatility, strength, or weakness. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a document to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand; the Cyberspace Administration of China strengthened the management of financial "self - media" and MCN accounts; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures; US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December; the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - period treasury bonds were lower than the ChinaBond valuations. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth rate may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold rose 0.37%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73%. COMEX gold and silver prices are also provided. A Fed governor made dovish remarks, and the market expects an 82.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, US stocks rose, and the offshore RMB strengthened. LME copper prices increased, and domestic copper inventories and premiums showed certain changes [11]. - **Strategy**: Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the probability of a December interest - rate cut. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and downstream demand is strong. Copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Supported by overseas supply disruption news, aluminum prices rose. LME and domestic aluminum inventories and premiums changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Global aluminum inventories are low, and supply disruptions support prices. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, aluminum prices may strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc index prices decreased slightly. LME and domestic zinc inventories and basis are provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc ore imports decreased in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period. However, in the long - term, the zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai lead index prices rose slightly. LME and domestic lead inventories and basis are provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, while the demand for lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded. Spot prices and cost factors are provided [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. Wait for the nickel - iron price to stabilize [18]. Tin - **Market News**: On November 26, Shanghai tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory information are provided [19]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal improvement of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, while the futures price of LC2605 decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts bullish sentiment, but there are concerns about off - season demand. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Alumina - **Market News**: On November 26, the alumina index decreased. Information on basis, overseas prices, and inventory is provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is over - supplied. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract price rose. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory information are provided [24]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price rose slightly, but the demand is affected by the real - estate market. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated. Information on contract prices, inventory, and demand is provided [26]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, registered warrants, and inventory is provided [29]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in the off - season, and the export is affected by anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term but may improve with policy implementation [30]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Yesterday, the iron - ore main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and inventory is provided [31]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron - ore shipments decreased, and the demand for iron ore is stable. The overall inventory is high, and the price is expected to oscillate [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the glass main contract price rose slightly. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of glass may decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the soda - ash main contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [35]. - **Strategy**: The supply of soda ash is in excess, and the demand is divided. The price is expected to be weak [35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: On November 26, the prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and price trends is provided [36]. - **Strategy**: The market risk appetite has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have decreased. However, with the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, there may be a turning point. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the industrial - silicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [40]. - **Strategy**: The production of industrial silicon is decreasing, and the demand is affected by the polysilicon and organic - silicon industries. The price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the polysilicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [43]. - **Strategy**: The production of polysilicon is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to platform company progress and price feedback [44]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rebounded. Thailand's rubber - producing areas were affected by floods, and the inventory of exchange - traded RU was low. The opinions of bulls and bears are different [46]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a bullish short - term strategy and partially build positions for hedging [50]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: INE crude - oil futures prices decreased. The inventory of refined oil products in the Fujairah port increased [51]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [52]. Methanol - **Market News**: The prices of methanol in different regions and the main contract increased. Information on basis and spread is provided [53]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian device shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory pattern remains. It is recommended to wait and see [53]. Urea - **Market News**: The prices of urea in different regions and the main contract changed. Information on basis and spread is provided [54]. - **Strategy**: The urea price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply is high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price of styrene rose. Information on basis, spread, and supply - demand is provided [56]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the demand is in the seasonal peak. The price may stop falling [57]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC01 contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [58]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The EG01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease in December, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA may increase, and the demand is affected by inventory and the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space [64]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The PX01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [65]. - **Strategy**: The load of PX is high, and the downstream PTA is in maintenance. PX may accumulate inventory in November, and the valuation may be adjusted downward [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PE decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [67]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE is expected to be volatile at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the seasonal peak [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PP decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [69]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal low. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market News**: Yesterday, domestic hog prices mostly decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak [72]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [73]. Eggs - **Market News**: Yesterday, the national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [74]. - **Strategy**: The spot price of eggs has not followed the futures price increase. The price is expected to be oscillating in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybean prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal inventory is large [76]. - **Strategy**: The global soybean supply has decreased, and the import cost has a bottom support. The meal price is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - **Market News**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The domestic oil inventory may decrease in the future [78]. - **Strategy**: The high production of palm oil suppresses the price. It is recommended to take an oscillating view and turn bullish if production decreases [79]. Sugar - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated. The production of sugar in Brazil and India is expected to increase [81]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in excess, and the international sugar price may be weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [82]. Cotton - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The global cotton production is expected to increase [83]. - **Strategy**: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [84].

文字早评 2025/11/25 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话； 2、央行：11 月 25 日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展 10000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年 期； 3、11 月以来，恒生科技 ETF 合计净申购份额已经超过 250 亿份，连续 2 个月净申购在 200 亿份以上； 有机构将目前行情视作"进入布局区"； 4、工业富联：公司未向市场下调第四季度利润目标。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.29%/-0.64%/-0.95%/-1.93%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.60%/-1.33%/-2.94%/-5.91%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.86%/-1.77%/-3.78%/-6.91%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.21%/-0.30%/-0.31%/-0.63%。 【策略观点】 经过近期的持续下跌后，指数有望阶段性企稳。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长 仍是市场主线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周一，TL 主力合约收 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 热评:昨日市场情绪延续谨慎,盘中地产小作文短暂提振市场,全天股指 震荡收跌。当前宏观层面总体多空交织,继科技板块整体调整后,市场缺 乏核心驱动主线,加上沪指行至4000点关口,市场对于科技股估值是否进 一步提升、市场能否从结构性行情转向全面慢牛存在分歧。与此同时,10 月经济数据表现承压,有待政策进行进一步托底,资金上预计中央汇金继 续担任托底指数功能。股指预计延续下有托底、向上承压的震荡格局。预 计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化,待新的驱动主线带来股指 进一步上行。 | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਜੇ 贴 | IF升贴水 | 55. 56% | 7.10% | 3.91% | 3.94% | | 水 | IH升贴水 IC升贴水 | -3.76% | 2.38% 11.04% | 1.28% 10.36% | 1.33% 10.95% | | 情 | | -7.50% | | | | | Я | IM升贴水 | -35.74% | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are advised for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum is for long - position reduction; nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch [1][20][23][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in a low - level sideways trend; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; red dates are expected to be in a slightly weak sideways trend [1][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are under pressure for rebound; eggs have limited upside potential; corn is in a bottom - building sideways trend; soybean meal is in a range - bound trend; oils and fats are in a weak adjustment [1][40][43][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It analyzes factors such as economic data, policy expectations, production, consumption, and inventory levels to predict price trends and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: They are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and are long - term bullish. With market hotspots rotating quickly and no clear main line, factors like US employment data and policy expectations affect the market. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. After previous trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term trading is influenced by news, economic data, and policy expectations, while long - term trading awaits signals from the Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a sideways trend. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory, with low purchasing willingness from various parties [7][8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. The futures price has fallen below certain cost levels, and in the short - term, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, with steel prices likely to be in a low - level sideways trend [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The main contract's position has reached a new high, and the market is weak due to factors such as unchanged supply, slowdown in restocking, and weakening demand. There is a risk of further demand decline and delivery pressure in the near - term [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level sideways trend. Market sentiment has turned cautious, and factors such as US government policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. Although there is long - term potential, short - term risks exist, and range trading or waiting and watching is advised [11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade sideways. Alumina production has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply and demand are balanced. With the approach of the off - season and other factors, the price is likely to be range - bound [12] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies. Indonesia's policy adjustment may affect supply, and there is an overall surplus in the nickel market, with different trends in various nickel products [16] - **Tin**: It is for cautious range trading. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak, but low overseas inventory provides some support [17] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. The US government's policy and Fed's interest - rate expectations affect the prices, and there is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates in Yichun and downstream production schedules [20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports are the main factors, and attention should be paid to cost, policy, and inventory changes [20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High inventory in the alumina industry exerts pressure on the caustic soda spot market, and attention should be paid to the verification of production - reduction expectations [23] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade sideways. Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to a balanced market, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and production schedules [24][25] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways, with support at the 15000 level. Cost support and inventory pressure coexist, and the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has some fluctuations [26] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade sideways. High supply, increasing demand in some sectors, and high inventory limit the upward potential of prices [28] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade sideways. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - level changes and production schedules [29] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. Cost compression, increasing supply, and weakening demand lead to a potential expansion of the supply - demand gap [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch. Supply is expected to contract, and cost support is strong, with limited downward space for the price [34][35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, and downstream consumption is weak [35] - **PTA**: It is in a low - level sideways trend. Supply is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is affected by factors such as oil prices and cost [35][37] - **Apples**: They are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend. With a decline in both production and quality, prices are likely to remain strong [37] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and prices are slightly loosening [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are under pressure for rebound. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as secondary fattening and demand, and long - term supply remains high [40] - **Eggs**: They have limited upside potential. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is stable. In the long - term, supply pressure may gradually ease [43] - **Corn**: It is in a bottom - building sideways trend. Short - term price is affected by new - grain listing, and long - term supply - demand is relatively balanced with some pressure on the upside [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a range - bound trend. US soybean supply - demand and domestic buying and selling affect the price, and range trading or basis pricing is recommended [45] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a weak adjustment. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and short - term adjustment risks exist, with long - term potential for wide - range fluctuations [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index futures (medium to long - term) [1][4] - **Bearish**: Glass (sell call options),红枣 (oscillate weakly),生猪 (rebound under pressure),鸡蛋 (rise limited),玉米 (weakly oscillate),油脂 (rebound limited) [1][7][36][38][40][42][45] - **Neutral**: Treasury bonds,焦煤,螺纹钢,铜,铝,镍,锡,黄金,白银,PVC,烧碱,苯乙烯,橡胶,尿素,甲醇,聚烯烃,棉花 and棉纱,PTA,苹果 [1][4][6][9][10][15][16][17][18][26][34] Core Views - The market shows diversified trends across different sectors. In the macro - financial area, index futures are expected to rise in the long - run but may oscillate in the short - term, while treasury bonds will likely move in a range. In the black building materials sector, products like coking coal and rebar are in a state of oscillation. The non - ferrous metals market is generally neutral with different metals having their own influencing factors. The energy and chemical industry is mostly in a state of oscillation or weak oscillation. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock sectors also present various trends based on supply - demand and seasonal factors [1][4][6][9][18][34][38] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Index Futures**: Medium to long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips. The market is currently oscillating with rapid rotation of hotspots and an unclear main line. The general public budget revenue and expenditure data have certain impacts on the market [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate. The third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a limited possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year, and the market is in a wait - and - see and oscillating pattern [4][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Suggested for range trading. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. The price is at a low level with low static valuation, and the short - term steel price will mainly oscillate at a low level due to factors such as weakening demand and potential steel mill production cuts [6][7] - **Glass**: Recommended to sell call options. The market is weak with high inventory and weakening demand, and the technical indicators show a bearish trend [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The market is influenced by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and copper supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to observe or conduct light - position range trading [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The market is neutral and oscillating at a high level. The price is affected by factors such as bauxite prices, alumina production capacity, and downstream demand. It is recommended to strengthen observation [9][10][11] - **Nickel**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty to the supply, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to oscillate. The prices are affected by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16][17] Energy and Chemical - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies [18][19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is influenced by factors such as alumina production and inventory, and chlorine price [20][21] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [21][22][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is related to tire production. It is recommended to observe the 15000 support level [23][24][25] - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate. The market is affected by factors such as supply, cost, and demand [26][27] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, demand, and coal prices [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for 01 - contract short - position holders to exit and observe. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong [30][31][33] Cotton - spinning - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, and the downstream consumption is weak [34] - **PTA**: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and inventory [34][35] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The production and quality of apples have declined, and the price is expected to remain strong [35] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and the price is slightly loosening [36] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The price is under pressure. The short - term price is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and production capacity reduction [38][39] - **Eggs**: The price increase is limited. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure needs time to ease [40][41] - **Corn**: Expected to build a bottom through oscillation. The short - term price is supported by the slowdown of new - grain listing, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and cost [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic and international soybean markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand, and price differentials [44][45] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. The short - term price is in a low - level oscillation, and the long - term price is affected by factors such as policies and weather [45][47][49][50][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, after the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, the market shifted its focus to key US economic data. Concerns about inflation and differences among Fed policymakers regarding the health of the US economy led to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts. Additionally, several Fed officials adopted a hawkish stance before the release of major economic data, causing an increase in US Treasury yields and a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing prosperity level declined in October, and exports unexpectedly decreased, leading to a slowdown in economic growth and dampening optimistic expectations to some extent. However, China's inflation data in October unexpectedly recovered and rebounded, with the supply - side continuing to exert efforts. Policy - wise, the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading operations to release liquidity into the market, and the domestic monetary policy was intensified, along with abundant liquidity, which boosted domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic mainly focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and the quality of economic growth. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. [3] - In terms of assets, the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term. Treasury bonds are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long. Among commodity sectors, the black sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously observe; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously go long; the energy and chemical sector is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to cautiously observe; precious metals are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to cautiously go long. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: After the end of the government shutdown, the market focused on key economic data. Inflation concerns and differences among Fed officials reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed officials' hawkish remarks before major data releases led to an increase in US Treasury yields and a decline in global risk appetite. [3] - Domestic: In October, China's manufacturing prosperity declined, and exports unexpectedly decreased, slowing economic growth. However, inflation data unexpectedly recovered, and the supply - side continued to work. The central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity, and the monetary policy was intensified, boosting domestic risk appetite. The market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental policies and economic growth. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. [3] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, batteries, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market rose significantly. Fundamentally, China's manufacturing prosperity declined in October, and exports unexpectedly decreased, slowing economic growth and dampening optimism. However, inflation data unexpectedly recovered, and the supply - side continued to work. Policy - wise, the central bank's actions boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro upward driving force has increased, and the stock index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term. [3][4] Precious Metals - On Thursday night, the precious metals market rose overall. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 956.96 yuan/gram, up 0.11%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 12405 yuan/kilogram, up 0.40%. Due to the sell - off in the market after the US government reopened and several Fed officials' hawkish remarks, precious metals were under some pressure in the short term. Spot gold fell 0.65% to $4171.1 per ounce. Precious metals are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is advisable to cautiously go long in the short term and buy on dips in the medium - to - long term. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the domestic steel spot market rebounded slightly, while the futures price continued to be weak. The stock market's rise boosted market sentiment. Fundamentally, real - world demand continued to weaken, but the decline in this week's data slowed down. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by about 6300 tons week - on - week. On the supply side, due to steel mill losses, steel production capacity was further restricted, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 22360 tons week - on - week. In the short term, the steel market will continue to fluctuate within a range, and the room for further decline below 3000 points for rebar is limited. [7] - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to fluctuate. Steel mill losses continued, and iron - water production is expected to decline further. However, with the improvement of market sentiment, the market has started to bet on the bottom of iron - water production. On the supply side, this week's iron ore shipments decreased by 144800 tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 477200 tons week - on - week. However, port inventories increased by 195000 tons on Monday, indicating an oversupply of ore. Although the Simandou iron ore mine has been put into production, it will take time to have a substantial impact on the domestic market. Currently, the key factors determining the iron ore price are the process of the decline in iron - water production and when the bottom will appear. It is advisable to view iron ore with a range - bound trading idea in the short term. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat. The futures price of silicon iron rebounded slightly, while that of silicon manganese weakened. The output of five major steel products decreased slightly, leading to a decline in ferroalloy demand. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5570 - 5620 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5580 - 5630 yuan/ton. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's first inquiry price for silicon manganese in November is 5750 yuan/ton, and other steel mills are following suit. The spot price of manganese ore is firm. The mainstream price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port is 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, the price of South African high - iron manganese ore is 29.8 - 30 yuan/ton - degree, the price of Gabonese manganese ore is 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of Australian lump ore is in the range of 39.5 - 41 yuan/ton - degree, with slow - growing transactions. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly. The operating rate (capacity utilization) of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country is 40.24%, a decrease of 2.75% from last week; the daily output is 28840 tons, a decrease of 835 tons. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5700 yuan/ton. The price of raw material semi - coke is stable. The price of medium - sized semi - coke in Shenmu market is 850 - 920 yuan/ton, the price of small - sized semi - coke is 800 - 850 yuan/ton, and the price of coke powder is 530 - 630 yuan/ton. The supply of silicon iron increased slightly. The operating rate (capacity utilization) of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises in the country is 36.26%, a 0.18% increase from last week; the daily output is 16300 tons, a 0.80% increase (130 tons) from last week. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. [8] Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The US copper inventory continued to rise, approaching 380000 short tons, a historical high, which restricts future import demand. There is a possibility of the Panama copper mine restarting. In China, the destocking of refined copper was less than expected. As of November 13, the social copper inventory was 201100 tons, a 5200 - ton increase from the previous period, still at a relatively high level and the highest in three years. The shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has intensified the global copper mine shortage, which will support the futures price. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, Shanghai aluminum continued to rise, reaching a three - and - a - half - year high, boosted by the optimistic sentiment after the end of the US government shutdown. Technically, all time frames are in an overbought state, and the hourly chart shows a long upper shadow line, indicating a possible short - term hourly - level correction, while the daily - level trend is unclear. Fundamentally, there is no change, and inventory destocking is still not going well. Although the 620000 - ton inventory is not high, it is not low either. In addition, the arrival of goods at Port Klang led to an increase of 9125 tons in LME aluminum inventory. The market is still worried about future supply, with a tight supply expectation. The market is trading based on expectations and temporarily ignoring the fundamentals. However, as the off - season approaches, the market will eventually return to reality. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short term, but if the expectations are revised later and combined with real - world pressure, aluminum prices will face a significant correction. [10] - **Tin**: On Thursday, the tin price reached a three - and - a - half - year high, driven by macro sentiment and supply concerns. On the supply side, the maintenance of a large - scale smelting enterprise in Yunnan has ended, and the combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi has slightly increased to 69.13%. The actual shortage of tin ore in the mine end continues. Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar, have been issued, due to the local rainy season and the slow actual resumption of production, the tin ore export volume is still far below the normal level and cannot effectively make up for the current supply gap. On the demand side, the peak season is not prosperous. The operating rate of tin solder in October decreased slightly and remained at a low level. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand and insufficient orders. The pre - installation in the photovoltaic sector in the early stage has overdrawn the later - stage installation demand, and the photovoltaic installation has almost halved since June. After the continuous decline, the social inventory of tin ingots has increased by 349 tons to 7033 tons, mainly due to the combined effect of the increase in supply from the resumption of maintenance and the relatively weak downstream demand. The tin price is at a historical high, and the inhibitory effect of high prices on physical demand has begun to appear. The spot market's acceptance of the current price level is limited, and it is mainly for just - in - time replenishment. In summary, the tin price has support in the medium - to - short term, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on consumption limits the upward space. It is expected to remain volatile at a high level, and risks should be noted. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2601 rose 1.39%, with the latest settlement price at 88360 yuan/ton. The weighted contract added 33853 lots, and the total open interest was 1.0373 million lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate quoted by Steel Union is 87750 yuan/ton (a 1700 - yuan increase from the previous period). The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene is 1050 US dollars/ton (a 30 - dollar increase from the previous period). The production profit of purchasing spodumene is - 907 yuan/ton. On November 6, the evaluation report of the mining right transfer income of Jianxiawo was publicly announced, which may be regarded as the active promotion of the resumption of production in Jianxiawo. The market quickly digested the negative news, and the demand logic still prevails. It is expected to be strong and volatile, but attention should be paid to the repeated disturbances on the supply side and hedging pressure. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon 2601 fell 0.22%, with the latest settlement price at 9180 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest was 267800 lots, adding 41.84 lots. The price of oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China is 9500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period), and the futures price is at a discount of 355 yuan/ton. After the end of the wet season, the production of industrial silicon in Southwest China has significantly decreased. The demand is relatively stable, and the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand. Attention should be paid to whether effective destocking can be achieved during the dry season. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises, and it is advisable to operate within the range and buy on dips. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main contract of polysilicon 2601 rose 3.69%, with the latest settlement price at 53940 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest was 144000 lots, adding 2397 lots. The latest price of N - type re -投料 is 51500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.3 yuan/piece (a 0.1 - yuan increase from the previous period), the price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) is 0.305 yuan/watt (unchanged from the previous period), and the price of N - type components (centralized): 182mm is 0.67 yuan/watt (unchanged from the previous period). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9130 lots (a 720 - lot decrease from the previous period). There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. There is still support for the spot price of polysilicon under policy expectations, but weak terminal demand makes it difficult for downstream prices to rise. The recent rumor of polysilicon stockpiling has caused disturbances. It is expected that polysilicon will be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips. [13][14] Energy and Chemical - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market remained stable, and the basis of the port methanol market remained stable and slightly weak. The spot negotiation price is 2065 - 2070 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 - 40/ - 35; the negotiation price for November delivery is 2085 - 2087 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 - 20/ - 18; the negotiation price for December delivery is 2115 - 2118 yuan/ton, with a basis of about 01 + 10/+13. As of November 12, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.5436 million tons, a 56500 - ton increase from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 64900 tons, while the inventory in South China decreased by 8400 tons. The production enterprise inventory was 369300 tons, a 17200 - ton decrease from the previous period, a 4.44% decline. Both the inland and port areas have seen inventory increases. The deterioration of the inland supply - demand situation has made the price lose support and continue to decline. Downstream demand has weakened, and inland plants are restarting. The fundamental pressure is still large, with a downward driving force. However, the firm and rising coal price is squeezing methanol profits, and the price is approaching the import cost. Iranian plants are planned to shut down in mid - November, which provides some support in terms of expectations. The real - world situation still needs substantial improvement. It is expected that the price will continue to decline with fluctuations in the near future, but the decline rate may slow down, and the decline space is limited. [15] - **PP**: The offer price is mainly in a weak and volatile state. The mainstream price of East China drawstring PP is 6330 - 6580 yuan/ton. According to Longzhong Information on November 13, the polyolefin inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is 665000 tons, a 25000 - ton decrease from the previous day. As of November 12, 2025, the sample inventory of polypropylene ports increased by 2300 tons from the previous period, a 3.56% increase, and the inventory has increased compared with last week. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased by 15100 tons from the previous period (November 5, 2025), a 6.61% decrease. Currently, although the demand for polypropylene has improved, the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to an increase in inventory. As the traditional off - season approaches, demand is expected to gradually weaken, while the supply will remain at a high level due to plant restarts. The market fundamentals are under pressure. Coupled with the weak and volatile crude oil price, the cost support is insufficient. It is expected that the polypropylene price will continue to decline. [16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips [1][5][6] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5][6] - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Sell call options [1][9][10] - Copper: Exit long positions at high levels or range - bound short - term trading [1][11] - Aluminum: Suggest to buy on dips [1] - Nickel: Suggest to wait and see or short on rallies [1][17] - Tin: Range trading [1][18][19] - Gold: Range trading [1][19][20] - Silver: Range trading [1][19] - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 4700 resistance for 01 contract [22][23] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 2400 resistance for 01 contract [24][25] - Soda ash: Bearish strategy for 01 contract [1][32][34] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 6500 resistance [25][26] - Rubber: Range - bound, focus on 15000 support [27][28] - Urea: Range - bound [29][30] - Methanol: Range - bound [31] - Polyolefins: PE to range - bound, focus on 6800 support; PP to trade weakly, focus on 6500 support [32][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [37] - PTA: Low - level range - bound [37][38] - Apples: Range - bound with a strong bias [38] - Red dates: Range - bound with a downward trend [38] - Live pigs: Rebound under pressure [1][40][41] - Eggs: Limited upside [42][43] - Corn: Bottom - building in a range [44][46] - Soybean meal: Range - bound [47] - Oils and fats: Bottom - building and rebounding [48][53] Core Views - The global risk appetite and domestic favorable policies fail to boost the domestic market sentiment, and the index futures may trade in a range; the bond market lacks a clear core logic, and treasury bonds may also trade in a range [6] - The coal market shows a pattern of tight supply and rising prices, and the prices of coking coal and rebar may be range - bound; the supply of glass is high and demand is weak, and it is recommended to sell call options [8][9][10] - Copper prices are affected by macro and fundamental factors and are expected to trade at high levels in a range; aluminum prices are affected by supply, demand and inventory, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [11][12] - Nickel supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended to trade in a range [17][18][19] - Gold and silver prices are affected by the US economic situation and Fed policies, and are expected to trade in a range [19][20] - PVC, caustic soda, styrene, etc. are affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand and macro policies, and are expected to trade weakly in a range; rubber is expected to trade in a range [23][25][28] - Urea and methanol are affected by supply, demand and cost, and are expected to trade in a range; polyolefins are affected by cost, supply and demand, and are expected to trade weakly [29][31][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is expected to trade at a low level in a range; apples are expected to trade strongly in a range; red dates are expected to trade downward in a range [37][38] - Live pig prices are affected by supply and demand in different periods, and it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage; egg prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract [40][42][43] - Corn prices are affected by new grain listing and demand, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage; soybean meal prices are affected by US soybean supply and demand, and are expected to trade in a range [44][46][47] - Oils and fats prices are affected by palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil supply and demand, and are expected to bottom - build and rebound, and it is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to arbitrage [48][53][54] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Index futures: Affected by factors such as the decline in US private - sector employment and domestic market sentiment, it is expected to trade in a range [6] - Treasury bonds: Due to the unclear core logic of the bond market and the need to focus on the entry of allocation funds and the actions of the central bank, it is expected to trade in a range [6] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market has tight supply and rising prices, and it is expected to trade in a range [8] - Rebar: With narrow - range price fluctuations and weakening supply - demand margins, it is expected to trade in a range [8] - Glass: High supply, weak demand, and low - season downstream replenishment, it is recommended to sell call options [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by macro and fundamental factors, it is expected to trade at high levels in a range [11] - Aluminum: Affected by supply, demand and inventory, it is recommended to strengthen observation [12] - Nickel: Medium - long - term supply is expected to be abundant, it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17] - Tin: Supply is expected to improve, it is recommended to trade in a range [18][19] - Gold and Silver: Affected by the US economic situation and Fed policies, they are expected to trade in a range [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand and macro policies, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [23] - Caustic soda: Affected by alumina production and demand, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [25] - Soda ash: Supply is in excess, it is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy for the 01 contract [35][36] - Styrene: Affected by cost and supply - demand, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [26] - Rubber: Affected by supply and demand and inventory, it is expected to trade in a range [28] - Urea: Affected by supply, demand and cost, it is expected to trade in a range [29][30] - Methanol: Affected by supply, demand and cost, it is expected to trade in a range [31] - Polyolefins: Affected by cost, supply and demand, PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [32][33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Affected by global supply - demand and trade negotiations, it is expected to trade in a range [37] - PTA: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade at a low level in a range [37][38] - Apples: Affected by production and sales, it is expected to trade strongly in a range [38] - Red dates: Affected by supply and demand, it is expected to trade downward in a range [38] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: Affected by supply and demand in different periods, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage [40][41] - Eggs: Affected by supply and demand, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract [42][43] - Corn: Affected by new grain listing and demand, it is recommended to hedge on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage [44][46] - Soybean meal: Affected by US soybean supply and demand, it is expected to trade in a range [47] - Oils and fats: Affected by palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil supply and demand, it is expected to bottom - build and rebound, and it is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to arbitrage [48][53][54]

General Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for different asset classes, it offers specific short - term investment suggestions: - For stocks and bonds, short - term cautious long positions are recommended; for commodities, different sectors have different suggestions, including cautious long, cautious short, and cautious observation [3]. Core Views - Overseas, the US labor market shows signs of deterioration, the dollar index is falling, but the potential end of the long - term shutdown boosts global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth has slowed in October, but inflation data has recovered, and the central bank's policies have increased liquidity and boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and economic growth [3][4]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Market Conditions**: Overseas, the ADP predicts a decline in US private - sector jobs, the dollar index is falling, and the potential end of the shutdown boosts global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing and export data in October are weak, but inflation data has recovered, and the central bank's policies have increased liquidity [3]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Stocks and bonds are expected to rebound in the short - term, with cautious long positions. For commodities, black metals are in short - term shock, with cautious observation; non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and some other sectors are in short - term shock and rebound, with cautious long positions; energy and chemical sectors are in short - term shock, with cautious observation [3]. Stocks - **Market Conditions**: Affected by sectors such as artificial intelligence, consumer electronics, and insurance, the domestic stock market has declined slightly. China's economic growth has slowed, but inflation data has recovered, and policies have boosted risk appetite [4]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term, with cautious long positions [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The precious metals market rose on Tuesday night. The expectation of the US government ending the shutdown and potential Fed rate cuts has boosted prices. Spot gold has reached a high since October 23 [4]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Precious metals are in short - term shock and rebound, with a long - term upward trend. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended, and long - term buying on dips is advised [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Spot prices were flat on Tuesday, and futures prices continued to fluctuate. The change in coking coal supply expectations and the decline in coking coal prices have led to a weakening of the steel market. Demand is weak, and supply has decreased. The short - term market may continue to weaken, but the decline below 3000 points for rebar is limited [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures and spot prices weakened slightly on Tuesday. Steel mills' losses have accelerated production cuts, and iron ore demand may further decline. Supply has decreased, but port inventories have increased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices were flat on Tuesday, and futures prices weakened slightly. Steel production has declined, reducing ferroalloy demand. Manganese ore prices are firm, and supply has decreased slightly. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: There are differences within the Fed on interest rate cuts. US copper inventories are at a high level, and there is a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestic de - stocking is less than expected, but the shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum declined slightly. The market is worried about future supply shortages, but domestic de - stocking is difficult. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there may be a significant correction later [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, and the demand is weak. Tin ingot inventories have increased. The short - to - medium - term price is expected to be supported at the bottom but pressured at the top, with high - level fluctuations [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate futures contract rose on Tuesday. The market has digested negative news, and the demand logic is dominant. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure need attention [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon futures contract declined on Tuesday. Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon futures contract declined on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The weakness of the crude oil market is offset by the high premium of refined oil products. Supply concerns and technical buying support the price. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate [15]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt has rebounded slightly following crude oil, but the rebound space is limited. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and supply pressure is increasing. Attention should be paid to the cost fluctuations of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: PX has weakened slightly. PTA's high - level operation provides some demand support. The PXN spread has rebounded slightly, and PX is still in a tight supply situation. Attention should be paid to cost changes [16]. - **PTA**: The expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has decreased, but the actual production cut is not highly confirmed, and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation later [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol has declined again and is still under pressure. Port inventories have increased significantly, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in mid - to - late November [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber has declined slightly following the polyester sector, and there is still pressure in the later period. The follow - up upward space may be limited [17]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market has weakened. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the price is expected to decline with fluctuations, but the decline rate may slow down [17][18]. - **PP**: The price of polypropylene is expected to continue to decline. Demand improvement is limited, and supply is increasing. Cost support is insufficient [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of polyethylene is expected to continue to be under pressure. Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weakening, and cost support is insufficient [19]. - **Urea**: The urea market is stable with a slight decline. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is differentiated. The short - term market is expected to continue to weaken slightly [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price has declined. The market is optimistic about Sino - US soybean trade relations. Attention should be paid to USDA reports. If the USDA lowers the yield per unit, the US soybean's ending inventory will shrink, strengthening the cost - repair logic [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is weak. With the improvement of Sino - US agricultural trade relations, the cost of imported soybeans has increased, and the risk of future shortages has decreased. Rapeseed meal generally follows the soybean meal market [20]. - **Oils**: Palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the market is weak and stable. The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is still unbalanced, and the price is stable within a range. Rapeseed oil inventories are decreasing, and the basis is strengthening [22]. - **Corn**: The futures price has risen continuously, driving up the price in the Northeast production area. Inventories are low, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase [22]. - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has decreased, and the supply pressure has eased. Demand has increased with the cooling weather. The pork price is expected to be weak and stable, and the futures price may be supported [22].