施康教授是宏观金融领域具有重要国际影响力的资深学者，此前在香港中文大学担任教授职务。他长期 深耕开放经济宏观经济学，其开创性研究紧密围绕全球资本流动失衡、国际货币体系演变、中国高水平 对外开放等国家亟需破解的重大理论与现实命题。他在经常项目理论方面提出的新框架，为理解全球与 中国经济结构性难题提供了重要参考；他对美元主导范式的研究，为应对外部金融风险、维护经济安全 提供了前瞻视角。施康教授学术成果丰硕，多篇论文发表于Journal of Monetary Economics，Journal of International Economics等国际知名学术期刊，并担任《中国经济评论》联合主编。其成果荣获浦山学术 研究奖、孙冶方金融创新奖等学术奖项，体现了以理论探索回应现实需求的学术价值。 施康教授的卓越贡献，不仅体现在理论前沿的突破，更在于其深厚的政策转化与实践影响力。他曾兼任 香港金融管理局香港货币研究所客座研究员、中国人民银行研究局访问学者，多次深度参与中国人民银 行、中财办、国务院政研室等部门的重要课题与政策咨询，研究成果涉及货币政策与财政政策协调、利 率市场化改革、宏观治理效能提升等关键领域。在202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, it is expected that stock index futures will fluctuate strongly before the Spring Festival, accumulating strength for further upward movement [6] - In the long run, in the context of low - interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds are generally abundant, and the economy is in the process of bottom - building. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of stock indices is expected to continue [6] - The strategy is to continue to hold long positions in stock indices for the medium - to - long - term [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Macro - financial Market Review - The central bank conducted 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment on the day was 38 billion yuan [4] - This week, 405.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 500 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will also mature on Friday [4] 3.2 Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DRO01 | 1.27 | - 0.24 | | DR007 | 1.54 | 7.68 | | GC001 | 1.57 | 28.50 | | GC007 | 1.66 | 6.00 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.00 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.31 | - 0.50 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.55 | - 0.75 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.79 | - 0.85 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 1.00 | 0.00 | [4] 3.3 Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 1.63% to 4719.1, the SSE 50 rose 1.45% to 3081.8, the CSI 500 rose 2.02% to 8311.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.26% to 8233.8 [5] - The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Beijing stock markets reached 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 106.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with only the mining and gas sectors falling [5] 3.4 Stock Index Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | Volume Change (%) | Open Interest Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4719 | 1.63 | - | - | | IF Current Month | 4723 | 1.8 | - 23.3 | - 1.9 | | SSE 50 | 3082 | 1.45 | - | - | | IH Current Month | 3084 | 1.5 | - 25.8 | - 5.2 | | CSI 500 | 8311 | 2.02 | - | - | | IC Current Month | 8322 | 2.2 | - 31.3 | - 3.7 | | CSI 1000 | 8234 | 2.26 | - | - | | IM Current Month | 8256 | 29 | - 23.0 | - 4.2 | [5] 3.5 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount | Variety | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | - 2.49% | - 0.43% | 1.66% | 2.86% | | IH Premium/Discount | - 1.96% | - 0.67% | 0.25% | 1.80% | | IC Premium/Discount | - 4.28% | - 0.04% | 3.25% | 4.29% | | IM Premium/Discount | - 8.96% | 0.13% | 5.82% | 6.89% | [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - **Black Building Materials**: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - **Strategy**: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - **Strategy**: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Futures prices rose [63]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - **Strategy**: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - **Strategy**: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank carried out 354 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 143.8 billion yuan on the day, and 1.181 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market this week, along with 200 billion yuan of MLF maturing on Monday [3][4] - The central bank emphasized expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies and maintaining financial stability [4] - The stock index trends were divided, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating, and the market showed a rotation between sectors. The market's trading volume remained high, and it is expected that the short - term shock adjustment space of the stock index is limited, and it will mainly show a relatively strong shock before the Spring Festival [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.36% with a - 0.39bp change, DR007 at 1.59% with a 4.28bp change, GC001 at 1.60% with a 12.50bp change, etc [3] - **Bond Yields**: The 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.29% with a - 0.50bp change, the 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.58% with a 0.50bp change, and the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26% with a 2.00bp change [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Data - **Stock Index Futures**: IF当月 rose 1.0% to 4775, IH当月 rose 1.9% to 3124, IC当月 fell 1.1% to 8531, and IM当月 fell 0.7% to 8351 [5] - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.76% to 4753.9, the Shanghai 50 rose 1.65% to 3110.9, the CSI 500 fell 0.97% to 8517.8, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.8% to 8332.2 [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM had different changes, such as IF trading volume increasing by 11.8% to 159,804 and IF open interest decreasing by 0.7% to 323,557 [5] - **Sector Performance**: In the stock market, precious metals, mining, and brewing industries performed strongly, while electronic chemicals, semiconductors, etc. declined [6] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 7.23%, - 4.63%, - 0.97%, and 0.89% respectively [7] - **IH**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 7.09%, - 4.57%, - 1.80%, and 0.12% respectively [7] - **IC**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 2.60%, 0.02%, 1.67%, and 2.66% respectively [7] - **IM**: The premium and discount rates for the next - month, current - quarter, next - quarter, and current - month contracts were - 3.82%, 0.28%, 4.12%, and 5.37% respectively [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock indices, "sideways movement" for treasury bonds, etc. [1][5] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading suggestions and market analysis for each product based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and geopolitical events. [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Market is resilient, influenced by factors like Fed's policy, geopolitical events, and real - estate policy. [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways movement. There is no significant explicit negative factor, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflow. [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. Coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but price increase sustainability is limited due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply. [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Futures price is slightly higher than off - peak electricity cost of electric arc furnace and lower than peak electricity cost. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. [8] - **Glass**: Hold off. Supply is stable, demand is weak in the north and has local support in the south. There is a risk of production - sales decline before the Spring Festival. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Hold off or hold long positions with light positions and roll. Macro - factors support prices, but fundamentals are weak. There is a risk of callback before the Spring Festival. [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is relatively stable, demand is entering the off - season, and prices may continue high - level adjustment. [13] - **Nickel**: Hold off. Indonesian quota reduction boosts sentiment, but fundamentals are weak. Price increase may be fully priced. [14][15] - **Tin**: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions. Supply is tight, consumption is in a recovery trend, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical tensions and Fed's policy affect prices. Mid - term price center moves up. [17] - **Silver**: Bullish. Similar to gold, geopolitical and economic factors drive prices up. Mid - term price center moves up. [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply is affected by mine risks, demand is strong, and prices are expected to be bullish. [18][19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and export is a key factor. Low - level may have been reached, long - term long - position thinking. [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Hold off. Demand is weak, supply is high, and there is short - term delivery pressure. [21] - **Styrene**: Range trading. Price rebounds due to export and maintenance, but valuation is high. Long - term, pay attention to cost and supply - demand improvement. [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is expected to shrink seasonally, cost supports prices, but there is a risk of callback. [23] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply is increasing, demand from compound fertilizer and other industries supports prices, and prices are expected to move sideways. [25] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand from olefin production and traditional downstream is weak, and prices are affected by geopolitical and port factors. [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Bearish sideways. Supply increases, demand from PE downstream declines, and PP has some support. Prices are expected to be weak. [27] - **Soda Ash**: Hold off. Supply is expected to contract, demand from downstream is mixed, and cost supports prices. [28] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Sideways adjustment. Global cotton supply decreases and demand increases, but internal - external price difference suppresses domestic prices. [28] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. Market is generally stable and weak, with different trading situations in different regions. [30] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. Raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, with a high - quality - high - price principle. [30] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Short - term price fluctuations are limited, and long - term price increase is cautious. Short - term, short on rallies for off - season contracts; long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction. [31][33] - **Eggs**: Rebound from low levels. Current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. [34][35] - **Corn**: Upside limited. Short - term supply - demand is balanced, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Sideways at low levels. Short - term, M2603 contract moves sideways; long - term, 05 contract is under pressure. [37] - **Oils**: Bullish sideways. Fundamental factors support price increases, but the upward momentum may weaken over time. [37][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, in the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, and the short - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - For precious metals, the current weakening of the US dollar credit is irreversible, driving the prices of gold and silver to remain strong. The strategy is to maintain a long - position thinking [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be strong or fluctuate. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate strongly, and aluminum is expected to maintain a strong operation [12][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the bottom range, and iron ore prices are expected to be mainly volatile [31][33]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different strategies, such as trading crude oil at the shale oil break - even cost range and considering short - selling urea [57][62]. - For agricultural products, some products' short - term fundamentals are improving, such as protein meals and oils, and there are corresponding trading opportunities [87][89]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market News**: The State Council issued a work plan to support service consumption, some funds were suspended, and new AI chips were released [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: In the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, and the short - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of main contracts changed slightly on Thursday. There were positive results in Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and the HKMA maintained the benchmark interest rate. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net investment [5]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver changed, and COMEX gold and silver had corresponding quotes. The CME raised the gold margin ratio, and Trump planned to announce a new Fed chairman nominee [7]. - **Strategy**: The weakening of the US dollar credit is irreversible, driving the prices of gold and silver to remain strong. The strategy is to maintain a long - position thinking [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overseas copper mine supply was disturbed, and copper prices fluctuated. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot discount and import loss also changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference ranges for the Shanghai copper main contract and LME 3M copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices fluctuated, and domestic and LME inventories changed. The spot discount and trading sentiment were also affected [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong operation, with reference ranges for the Shanghai aluminum main contract and LME 3M aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [15][16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase, and the zinc ore inventory is accumulating [17]. Lead - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai lead and LME lead changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [18]. - **Strategy**: The lead industry is currently weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [18]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly, and the supply and demand and inventory situation changed [20]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The prices of carbonate lithium spot and futures changed, and the inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The price of the alumina index changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [23]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies and other factors [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The price of the stainless steel main contract changed, and the spot price and inventory situation also changed [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply of stainless steel is expected to be tight, and the price center may move up, but there are risks [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract changed, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly supported in the short term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts changed, and the spot prices also increased [30]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the bottom range, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The price of the iron ore main contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [32]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to be mainly volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill replenishment and production rhythm [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market News**: The prices of coking coal and coke main contracts changed, and the spot prices and discounts also changed [34]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: The price of the glass main contract changed, and the inventory decreased [38]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to wait and see [39]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: The price of the soda ash main contract changed, and the inventory increased [40]. - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is expected to continue to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts changed, and the spot prices and discounts also changed [42]. - **Strategy**: The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and it is recommended to pay attention to relevant factors [45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [46]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production reduction and other factors [47]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: The price of the polysilicon main contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [48]. - **Strategy**: The polysilicon market is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to terminal demand and policy adjustments [50]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: The prices of rubber - related products changed, and the market had different views on the rise and fall [52][53][54]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the disk, set stop - losses, and control risks [55]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The prices of crude oil and related refined oil futures changed, and the US EIA data showed inventory changes [56]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit on heavy oil spreads and buy crude oil at the shale oil break - even cost range [57]. Methanol - **Market News**: The prices of methanol spot and futures changed [58]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy methanol on dips because of its low valuation and improved future pattern [59]. Urea - **Market News**: The prices of urea spot and futures changed, and the basis was reported [60][61]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell urea because of its expected fundamental negative factors [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [63]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit gradually on styrene non - integrated profits [64]. PVC - **Market News**: The price of the PVC contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [65]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell PVC because of its strong supply and weak demand [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The price of the ethylene glycol contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [67]. - **Strategy**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [68]. PTA - **Market News**: The price of the PTA contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [69]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [70]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The price of the PX contract changed, and there were corresponding inventory and cost data [72]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the crude oil to buy PX on dips in the medium term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The prices of PE futures and spot changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [74]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is affected by supply and demand, and the valuation has downward space [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The prices of PP futures and spot changed, and there were corresponding inventory and basis data [76]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy the PP5 - 9 spread on dips in the long term [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: The domestic pig price continued to decline, and the supply and demand situation changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The spot price has limited downward space in the short term, but there may be opportunities to short - sell after a rebound [81]. Eggs - **Market News**: The national egg price was stable with slight increases, and the supply and demand situation changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The egg price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure after a rebound [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures changed, and there were corresponding inventory and production data [84][86]. - **Strategy**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out, and the short - term fundamentals are improving [87]. Oils - **Market News**: The prices of oil futures changed, and there were corresponding inventory and production data [88][89]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then try to buy oils [89]. Sugar - **Market News**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded, and there were corresponding production and import data [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere harvest, and it is recommended to wait and see [92]. Cotton - **Market News**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated at a high level, and there were corresponding production, inventory, and export data [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room to rise in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, but in the short term, attention should be paid to market rhythm. For stock index futures, the strategy is to buy on dips. For Treasury bonds, the market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter. For precious metals, there are medium - term bullish factors. For most commodities, the overall market sentiment is expected to be bullish, but there are short - term fluctuations and different supply - demand situations for each variety [4][7][9]. Summary by Categories 1. Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Shanghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on six key areas. The Ministry of Finance provides fiscal subsidies for technology - innovation loans, and the central bank offers re - loans. Spot silver has reached $95 per ounce, up 33% this year, and spot gold is up nearly 10%. Some违规 accounts on Xueqiu have been permanently banned [2]. - **Basis Point Ratios**: The basis point ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: In the long term, policies support the capital market, but in the short term, pay attention to market rhythm and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.51%, 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0.04% respectively. The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy in 2026, and the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy is extended to the end of 2026. The central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum needs to be observed, and domestic demand depends on residents' income and policy support. The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates, and the market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.98%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.56%. COMEX gold and silver prices are reported. Poland plans to buy 150 tons of gold, and the US - EU relationship is tense, which is beneficial to gold [8]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, the Fed may increase the easing amplitude, and it is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [9]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, European and American stock markets weakened, LME copper inventory increased, and copper prices fell. LME copper closed at $12,796 per ton, down 1.47%, and Shanghai copper closed at 99,930 yuan per ton [11]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of Trump's tariff on key minerals is weakening, and the market sentiment is cooling. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Market risk preference weakened, and aluminum prices fell. LME aluminum closed at $3,118 per ton, down 1.48%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,775 yuan per ton [13]. - **Strategy**: Tensions between the US and Europe have weakened market sentiment, but high US aluminum premiums and low global LME aluminum inventory limit the downside of aluminum prices. The price is expected to be supported in the short term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16% to 24,417 yuan per ton. LME zinc rose to $3,227 per ton. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of zinc ore and the import TC of zinc concentrate decreased slightly, and the zinc price has room to catch up compared with copper and aluminum. The zinc price is expected to follow the sector and may fluctuate [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index rose 0.25% to 17,228 yuan per ton. LME lead rose to $2,058 per ton. The social inventory of lead ingots increased [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, and the downstream demand is improving marginally. The lead price may fluctuate with the sector [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 20, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.67% to 141,360 yuan per ton. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [20]. - **Strategy**: Although the production of refined nickel is expected to increase in January, the inventory has not reflected it. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 20, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 2.44% to 399,000 yuan per ton. The supply is limited by raw materials and high prices, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased [22]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, but the inventory increase may put pressure on the price. The tin price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose 5.52%. The import of carbonate lithium in December increased by 9% month - on - month and decreased by 14% year - on - year [23]. - **Strategy**: There are uncertainties in the lithium mine, and the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 20, the alumina index fell 2.21% to 2,666 yuan per ton. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import loss was reported. The futures inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Strategy**: The price of ore is expected to decline, and the alumina market has problems such as over - capacity and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless steel main contract rose 0.28% to 14,345 yuan per ton. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi changed, and the raw material price increased. The social inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the stainless steel market is expected to be strong in the short term, with the price fluctuating at a high level [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The main contract AD2603 fell 0.55% to 22,765 yuan per ton. The inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed, but the demand is general. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [30]. 3. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract fell 0.92% to 3,111 yuan per ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.69% to 3,276 yuan per ton. The inventory and spot price changed [32]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in a bottom - range shock. The safety inspection after the Baotou steel explosion may support the price of hot - rolled coils. The actual demand is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) fell 0.57% to 789.50 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [34]. - **Strategy**: The overseas iron ore shipment is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The price may adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the replenishment of steel mills and iron - water production [35][36]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 20, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) fell 4.30% to 1,124 yuan per ton, and the coke main contract (J2605) fell 2.76% to 1,673.5 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [37]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is retreating, and the supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but there are risks of short - term market sentiment shocks [39][40][41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the glass main contract fell 1.31% to 1,056 yuan per ton. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short changed [42]. - **Strategy**: The glass market sentiment is weakening. The supply is low, and the demand is light. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [43]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the soda ash main contract fell 1.26% to 1,177 yuan per ton. The inventory increased slightly, and the positions of long and short changed [44]. - **Strategy**: Affected by the glass market, the soda ash market is weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [44]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fell 0.83% to 5,760 yuan per ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) rose 0.07% to 5,552 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [45]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is retreating, and the supply - demand of manganese silicon is loose, while that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Future market drivers may come from the overall market sentiment and cost factors [47][48]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) fell 1.13% to 8,745 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [49]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weakening. The price may fluctuate due to news [50]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) rose 0.39% to 50,700 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [52]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure of polysilicon is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [53]. 4. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated weakly. The tire factory's operating rate increased, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [55][56]. - **Strategy**: The rubber price is expected to continue to fall after consolidation. It is recommended to short on the break of 16,000 for RU2605 and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures fell 1.27% to 437 yuan per barrel. The inventories of related refined products and crude oil increased [59]. - **Strategy**: The Latin - American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to rise [60]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price of methanol changed, and the main futures contract changed [61]. - **Strategy**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and there is a chance of improvement in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips [62]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price of urea changed, and the main futures contract changed [63][64]. - **Strategy**: The import window of urea has opened, and the fundamental negative expectation is coming. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [65]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene was stable, the spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell. The supply - demand and profit indicators changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is low, and there is room for valuation repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [67]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose to 4,807 yuan. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [68]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. The short - term electricity price and export incentives may support the price, but it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [69]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell to 3,661 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of rebound and compress the valuation in the medium term [71]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose to 5,144 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [72]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to be high in the short term, and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [73]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose to 7,232 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. There is a chance to go long on dips following the crude oil price after the Spring Festival [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The main contract of PE fell to 6,640 yuan. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may bottom out, and the PE valuation has downward space. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may be supported [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The main contract of PP fell to 6,461 yuan. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of PP is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [79][80]. 5. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price generally fell, and the market demand was weak [82]. - **Strategy**: Low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the short - term price may be strong. However, the medium - term supply pressure is large, and the price may be under pressure [83]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, and the supply and demand were normal [84]. - **Strategy**: The spot price of eggs has increased during the pre - holiday stocking period, and the near - month contract may fluctuate strongly. The long - term outlook is positive, but there are uncertainties [85]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal decreased, and the spot price of rapeseed meal increased. The import, supply, and demand data of soybeans and rapeseed are reported [86][87]. - **Strategy**: The USDA report is slightly negative, and China's purchase of US soybeans and potential reduction of Canadian rapeseed import tariffs are negative for domestic meal prices. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly [88]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price rebounded. The domestic three - major oil inventories decreased, and the supply - demand data of palm oil and other oils are reported [89][90]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamental situation of oils and fats is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The spot price of sugar decreased, and the import and production data are reported [92][93]. - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's sugar - making season ends. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price of cotton decreased, and the import, supply, and demand data are reported [95][96]. - **Strategy**: In the medium -

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the crude oil industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the long - term supply - demand of crude oil remains in a relatively loose pattern. However, short - term geopolitical situations are the main disturbances, and oil prices may still maintain a wide - range fluctuating trend [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply (Medium - Long Term) - EIA slightly raised its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026, expecting 10,616 million barrels per day in 2025, a rise of 299 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] - In November, OPEC countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day from October; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.585 million barrels per day, an increase of 4.5 million barrels per day from October (OPEC data). IEA data showed that OPEC countries' production in November was 28.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 25 million barrels per day from October, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.26 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10 million barrels per day from October [3] 3.1.2 Demand (Medium - Long Term) - EIA raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The growth rate in 2025 is 1.14 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.09 million barrels per day compared to the November forecast [3] - OPEC kept its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026, with a growth rate of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, the same as the November forecast [3] - IEA slightly raised its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The growth rate in 2025 is 0.83 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.042 million barrels per day compared to the November forecast [3] 3.1.3 Inventory (Short Term) - In the week ending January 9, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase, against an expected decrease of 1.702 million barrels and a previous decrease of 3.832 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories in Oklahoma were 0.745 million barrels, compared to 0.728 million barrels in the previous week [3] - In terms of refined oil products, gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels (expected 3.565 million barrels, previous 7.702 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 0.029 million barrels (expected 0.512 million barrels, previous 5.594 million barrels), and heating oil inventories decreased by 0.745 million barrels (previous 0.672 million barrels) [3] 3.1.4 Producing Country Policies (Medium - Long Term) - OPEC+ reaffirmed in the January meeting to maintain stable production in the first quarter of 2026 and suspended the previously planned production increase measures. The meeting lasted about 10 minutes and did not cover the recent Venezuelan geopolitical event [3] - A U.S. government official said that the U.S. had completed the sale of the first batch of Venezuelan oil, with a transaction value of $500 million, and more oil would be sold in the coming days and weeks [3] 3.1.5 Geopolitics (Short Term) - Trump postponed the decision on whether to launch a military strike against Iran. Military options are still on the table, but the uncertainty has significantly increased. Advisors told Trump that if a large - scale strike is carried out, the U.S. needs to deploy more military forces in the Middle East [3] - On January 15, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on multiple Iranian individuals and entities and multiple foreign companies associated with Iran. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larryjani was included in the sanctions list [3] 3.1.6 Macro - finance (Short Term) - U.S. non - farm payroll data showed that overall inflation in December 2025 met expectations, and core inflation was slightly lower than expected. The year - on - year growth rate of the overall CPI was 2.7%, the same as the previous value, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.3% as expected; the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 2.6% (expected 2.7%), and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.2% (expected 0.3%) [3] - The CME "FedWatch" tool showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January was 5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut was 20.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 78.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut was 0.9% [3] 3.1.7 Investment View and Trading Strategy - Investment view: The oil price is expected to oscillate [3] - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data 3.2.1 Market Review - This week, oil prices fluctuated widely, rising first and then falling, mainly trading around the U.S. military strike on Iran event. As Trump postponed the decision on whether to strike Iran, oil prices dropped from their highs. As of January 16, the closing price of the WTI crude oil main contract was $59.22 per barrel, a weekly increase of $0.44 per barrel (+0.75%); the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was $64.20 per barrel, a weekly increase of $1.12 per barrel (+1.87%); the closing price of the SC crude oil main contract was 438.8 yuan per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.1 yuan per barrel (+1.41%) [6] 3.2.2 Month - to - Month Spreads and Internal - External Spreads - Near - month spreads and internal - external spreads declined [9] 3.2.3 Crack Spreads - Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined, and jet fuel crack spreads also declined [27][38] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Production - In November 2025, global crude oil and related liquid production was 108.7 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.444 million barrels per day from October (EIA data) [62] - In November 2025, OPEC countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1 million barrels per day from October; Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.585 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.045 million barrels per day from October (OPEC data). IEA data showed that OPEC countries' production in November was 28.99 million barrels per day, a decrease of 25 million barrels per day from October, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' production was 14.26 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10 million barrels per day from October [3][62] - As of the week ending January 9, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.058 million barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day; U.S. commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.753 million barrels per day from the previous week; the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year [86] - As of the week ending January 16, the total number of active U.S. drilling rigs was 544, compared to 546 in the previous week [86] 3.3.2 Inventory - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels, and Cushing inventories increased by 0.745 million barrels [87] - Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [95] 3.3.3 Demand - In the U.S., implied gasoline and diesel demand increased, and refinery operating rates remained at a high level. Refinery operating rates rose 0.60% to 95.30%, and crude oil processing volume increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 17.3 million barrels per day. Gasoline implied demand was 9.133 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.0264 million barrels per day; distillate implied demand was 5.5201 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.7972 million barrels per day [108][117] - In China, refinery capacity utilization rates slightly declined. In the third week of 2026 (January 9 - 15), the capacity utilization rate of China's independent refined oil refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 61.01%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decline from the previous week. The profit margin of refineries narrowed, and the operating loads of independent refineries in regions such as Shandong decreased [118][119] 3.3.4 Macro - finance - U.S. Treasury yields rebounded, and the U.S. dollar index rebounded [142] 3.3.5 CFTC Positions - Speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil increased [152]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has risen significantly, and market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, attention should be paid to market rhythm, and the strategy should be based on buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs further observation, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The central bank's attitude towards capital protection remains, and the capital market is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the first quarter [7]. - For precious metals, the short - term driving force for gold and silver prices is weakening, but in the medium - term, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts and other factors may lead to a significant increase in prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, although the market sentiment is cooling, the financial market liquidity in the US is still expected to be loose. The copper market has a tight supply of copper ore but a relative surplus of refined copper, so the price is expected to be volatile. The aluminum market is restricted by the high - level of US aluminum spot premium and low inventory, and the price is expected to be relatively firm. Zinc and lead prices have the potential to catch up, and nickel and tin prices are expected to be volatile. The price of lithium carbonate has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The stainless steel market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [12][14][17][19][22][24][26][29][30][33]. - For black building materials, the steel market is in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress of hot - rolled coils and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies. The iron ore price is supported but may oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythm. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and strong, but attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations. The glass market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and the soda ash market is expected to be weakly sorted. The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and attention should be paid to relevant policies. The industrial silicon price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [36][39][43][45][47][50][51][54][56]. - For energy and chemical products, the rubber price is seasonally weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended if it breaks through a certain level. The oil price is not recommended to be overly short - sold in the short - term, and a range - trading strategy is maintained. The methanol price has limited downward space and is suitable for buying on dips. The urea price is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies. For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter. The PVC price is fundamentally poor, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - term. The ethylene glycol price is expected to compress the valuation in the medium - term. The PTA price is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival, and there are long - term opportunities. The PX price is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season and has long - term opportunities. The polyethylene and polypropylene prices are affected by supply and demand, and relevant trading strategies are recommended [61][63][66][68][70][73][75][77][79][81][84]. - For agricultural products, the short - term price of live pigs may be strong in the near - term, but the medium - term price is under pressure. The egg price is expected to oscillate, with limited upward and downward space. The protein meal price has increased short - term volatility due to multiple negative factors. The short - term outlook for edible oils is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cotton price is affected by domestic factors, and it is recommended to wait for a callback to go long [87][89][92][95][98][101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The A - share market should aim for a long - term bull market rather than a "crazy bull market." The commercial aerospace sector has new developments, and the Spring Festival Gala has completed its first rehearsal. The State Council has studied consumption - promotion measures [2]. - **Basis - Point Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis - point ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and market trading volume has rapidly expanded. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged in the long - term. In the short - term, attention should be paid to market rhythm, and the strategy should be based on buying on dips [4]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has emphasized market stability, and there are speculations about the next Fed Chairman [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank has conducted 867 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 527 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs further observation, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The central bank's attitude towards capital protection remains, and the capital market is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the first quarter [7]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, and the prices of COMEX gold and silver have also changed. The expected candidate for the new Fed Chairman has changed, weakening the expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, leading to a short - term correction in gold and silver prices [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term driving force for gold and silver prices is weakening, but in the medium - term, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts and other factors may lead to a significant increase in prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference operating range of 985 - 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 19050 - 23688 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price has fallen, LME copper inventory has increased, and domestic inventory has also changed. The spot discount of copper has returned, and the import loss has narrowed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of Trump imposing tariffs on key minerals has weakened, and the plan to impose tariffs on 8 European countries has cooled market sentiment, but the expectation of loose liquidity in the US financial market remains. The supply of copper ore is tight, but the supply of refined copper is relatively surplus. The copper price is expected to be in a volatile state, with the reference range of 98000 - 102000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 12500 - 13000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price has continued to fall, the trading volume has decreased, and the inventory has changed. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum has expanded, and the LME aluminum inventory has decreased [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The continuous accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the cooling of the precious metals and copper markets have caused the aluminum price to fall back. However, the high premium of US aluminum spot and the low LME global aluminum inventory limit the downward space of the aluminum price. As the price corrects, the downstream inventory is expected to increase, and the aluminum price may be relatively firm in the short - term, with the reference range of 23800 - 24200 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3090 - 3160 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price has fallen, and relevant information on inventory, basis, and other aspects is provided [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of zinc ore has slightly decreased, and the import TC of zinc concentrate has also slightly decreased. The zinc price has a certain potential to catch up compared with copper and aluminum. The zinc price is currently in the process of following the sector to catch up on the macro - attribute, and it is necessary to observe the trend of leading varieties in the sector and the situation of the Shanghai - London ratio [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price has fallen, and relevant information on inventory, basis, and other aspects is provided [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent inventory of lead concentrate has decreased, and the operating rates of primary and recycled lead have increased. The lead supply has increased marginally, and the inventory has accumulated. The lead price is approaching the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro - funds and industrial - seat funds has increased. It is necessary to observe the trend of leading varieties in the sector and the situation of the Shanghai - London ratio [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price has significantly corrected, and the spot premium and cost have changed [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel remains high, but macro - level factors such as loose domestic liquidity and the Indonesian government's plan to reduce RKAB quotas support the price. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 19,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price has significantly corrected, the supply situation has changed, and the inventory has increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market has weak demand, but the downstream inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference operating range of 360,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract and 45,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for overseas LME tin [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated greatly, and relevant price and inventory information is provided [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment of lithium carbonate has fluctuated significantly, and the price has risen and then fallen. The fundamental improvement expectation has been fully traded, and there is still a certain emotional premium. The price has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference operating range of the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 139,500 - 149,000 yuan/ton [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price has fallen, the trading volume has decreased, and relevant information on basis, inventory, and ore price is provided [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea has gradually recovered, and the AXIS mine has resumed production, so the ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see, and it is not cost - effective to go long. It is advisable to wait for an opportunity to short the near - term contract on rallies. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2650 - 2800 yuan/ton [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel price has fallen, the trading volume has decreased, and relevant information on spot price, raw material price, and inventory is provided [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the stainless - steel market has shown a situation of increasing volume and price. The supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand is affected by price. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 13900 - 14650 yuan/ton for the main contract [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy has continued to fall, the trading volume has decreased, and relevant information on inventory and price difference is provided [31][32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply is disturbed. The demand is relatively average, so the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [33]. 3.5 Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have changed, and relevant information on registered warehouse receipts, trading volume, and spot price is provided [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The output of hot - rolled coils has slightly increased, and the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is still at a high level. The apparent demand of rebar has increased significantly, and the output is at a medium level. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress of hot - rolled coils and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore price has decreased slightly, and relevant information on inventory, basis, and trading volume is provided [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron - ore shipment has decreased, the near - end arrival volume has increased, the demand for iron ore has decreased slightly, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' inventory has increased. The iron - ore price is supported but may oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythm [39]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have fallen, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and technical form is provided [40][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke have oscillated and fallen, mainly due to the decline of market sentiment. In the future, the overall market sentiment is expected to be bullish, but there may be short - term fluctuations. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively balanced, but the steel mills' restocking willingness is not strong. The prices are expected to be oscillating and strong, but attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations [42][43]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the trading volume has changed. The soda - ash price has decreased slightly, the inventory has slightly increased, and the trading volume has changed [44][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market has a loose supply - demand balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely, with the reference range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton for the main contract. The soda - ash market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted, with the reference price range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton for the main contract [45][47]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have fallen, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and technical form is provided [49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have fallen due to the decline of market sentiment. The supply and demand of manganese - silicon are not ideal, and the supply and demand of silicon - iron are relatively balanced. The future market is affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [50][51]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon price has fallen, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and trading volume is provided. The polysilicon price has increased, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and trading volume is provided [52][55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial - silicon price is expected to be weakly oscillating due to the decrease in supply and demand. The polysilicon market has a situation of upstream game and downstream policy - driven expectation, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spot trading and exchange risk - control measures [54][56]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Products Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has oscillated and weakened, and there are different views on the rise and fall of the price. The tire factory's operating rate has increased, and the inventory has changed [58][59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is seasonally weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended if the RU2605 contract breaks below 16,000. It is recommended to partially build a position in the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling the RU2609 contract

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: The stock index is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended for selling on rallies [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper should be held long cautiously at low levels with rolling operations; aluminum requires more observation; nickel suggests waiting or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is expected to be strong; lithium carbonate will trade in a range [1][11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC adopts a low - buying strategy; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile [1][17][19]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range; apples are expected to be slightly strong; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26][28]. - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, short - term contracts should sell on rallies and long - term contracts are cautiously bullish; for eggs, the 02 contract can be hedged on rallies; for corn, short - term chasing highs should be cautious, and long - term there is support at the bottom; for soybean meal, near - term contracts are bullish and far - term contracts are bearish; for oils, soybean and palm oil are stronger than rapeseed oil, and palm oil can be bought [1][29][38]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and international market trends. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product, and gives corresponding investment strategies such as buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and temporary observation [1][5][8]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The US economic data has mixed impacts, and China's foreign trade is improving, but the increase in margin ratio may put pressure on the stock index. It is bullish in the medium to long term, and investors can buy on dips [5]. - **Government Bonds**: Asset fluctuations are large, and there are short - term trading opportunities. The mid - term situation is unclear. The market should focus on the central bank's press conference on monetary policy, and government bonds are expected to trade in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: The transportation and procurement are weak, and the port inventory is increasing. It is recommended for short - term trading [7][8]. - **Rebar**: The price is in the middle range. The supply - demand pattern is seasonally weak, and there are expectations of weakening exports. It is suitable for range trading, and attention should be paid to cash - futures arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory transfers. The fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: There is a game between macro - bullishness and weak fundamentals. The short - term upward momentum is exhausted, but there is a long - term shortage expectation. It is recommended to hold long cautiously at low levels with rolling operations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina is in a weak situation, and the policy is uncertain. The aluminum price is under fundamental pressure, and it is recommended to observe more [12]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore quota is cut, but the overall supply is still in excess. It is recommended to wait or sell on rallies [13][14]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and it is suitable for range trading [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the weak US economic data and the expectation of interest rate cuts, the prices are expected to be strong. Silver is recommended to hold long, and gold is for range trading [15][16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to trade in a range [16][17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, but the valuation is low. There are potential policy and cost - side impacts. It is recommended to buy at low levels [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand is weak, and the supply is under pressure. There is short - term delivery pressure, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [19]. - **Styrene**: The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is suitable for range trading, and attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [19]. - **Rubber**: The upstream cost is rising, but the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and it is for range trading [20][21]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to trade in a range [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is mixed. The price is expected to trade in a range, with some regions being strong [23][24]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply is loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [24]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to observe temporarily [26]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand pattern is improving. The price is in a high - level adjustment, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26]. - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly strong [28]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28]. Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand may turn loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The long - term price increase is limited, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the short - term and be cautiously bullish in the long - term [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The long - term supply pressure still exists, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [31][33]. - **Corn**: The short - term price has selling pressure, and the long - term demand is gradually releasing. It is recommended to be cautious in chasing highs and hedge on rallies [34][36]. - **Soybean Meal**: The near - term contract is bullish, and the far - term contract is bearish. It is recommended to buy on dips in the near - term and sell on rallies in the far - term [37][38]. - **Oils**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Palm oil and soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to buy palm oil and pay attention to the China - Canada negotiation results [38][44].