黑色建材日报 | 2025-08-27 宏观情绪消退，钢价延续震荡 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪反复，玻碱震荡运行 宏观及房地产政策、浮法玻璃下游需求、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：市场情绪有所降温，铁合金期货小幅回调 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货交前日有所回落，锰硅期货主力合约收于5862元/吨，较前日下跌36元/吨。现货方面，硅 锰市场震荡运行，工厂现货报价较少，6517北方市场价格5700-5750元/吨，南方市场价格5770-5820元/吨。 供需与逻辑：硅锰产销环比回升，库存持续去化，伴随锰矿报价小幅抬升，硅锰成本小幅上移。目前硅锰行业供 需过剩依旧明显，仍需通过一定程度的亏损来压制产量释放。预计硅锰价格仍将跟随板块波动，后期关注锰矿成 本支撑、硅锰库存和锰矿发运情况。 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡偏弱，截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅1.76%。现货方面，交投情绪一般。供需与 逻辑：供应方面，当前玻璃产销平稳，厂库继续增长；玻璃供需矛盾较大，需要低价低利润推动供应减量。短期 盘面升水持续压制价格，近期宏观情绪反复，价格震荡运行，后期关注玻璃旺季需求表现。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific commodities, the strategies suggest a "sideways" outlook for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, while there is no strategy for thermal coal [2][4][6][7] 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Market expectations are fluctuating, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices. The current supply - demand fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate with policy expectations [1] - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, causing a slight increase in iron ore prices. The short - term fundamentals are good, but the long - term supply - demand remains relatively loose [3] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply expectation disturbances have led to a rise in coking coal and coke futures. The demand is strongly supported, and there is an expectation of a sixth round of coke price increases [6] - **Thermal Coal**: Rainfall has affected the supply in production areas, causing the pit - mouth coal price to run strongly. In the short term, the price is expected to be slightly stronger, while the long - term supply remains loose [7] 3. Summaries by Commodity Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3233 yuan/ton and 3457 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading volume is average, with 11.01 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials are in the off - season, while plates are supported by overseas orders. Supply is affected by production - restriction expectations and cost - side policies, leading to a slight increase in prices [1] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore rose by 1.20% to 798.5 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tangshan ports increased slightly, with a 10.42% increase in the national main port trading volume and a 22.75% increase in forward - contract trading volume [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply has strong support, and the global shipment shows a seasonal decline. The demand is guaranteed by high pig - iron production and no large - scale maintenance plans for steel mills in the short term [3] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly. Some coal mines stopped production for rectification, and the fifth round of coke price increases was fully implemented, with a cumulative increase of 250 - 275 yuan/ton [5][6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply expectations are unstable. The demand is supported by the high operating rate and pig - iron production of steel mills, and there is an expectation of a sixth round of coke price increases [6] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading of both coking coal and coke, and no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, rainfall restricted coal production, and the terminal replenishment demand was strong, driving up the coal price. In ports, the supply tightened, inventory decreased, and prices rose. The import price increased, but the trading activity was low [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: At the beginning of the month, some coal mines resumed normal production, and the supply strongly supported the market. With continuous high temperatures, the demand is expected to strengthen, and the price will run slightly stronger in the short term while the long - term supply remains loose [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [7]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-08-01 市场情绪减弱，钢材价格回调 玻璃纯碱：交易情绪减弱，玻碱价格回落 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面大幅回落。截至收盘，玻璃期货主力2509合约跌幅8.22%。现货方面，据隆众数据显 示：本周浮法玻璃企业开工率 75%，环比下降0.1%；厂家库存5949.9万重箱，环比减少239.7万重箱。供需与逻辑： 供应方面，目前玻璃供给未见收缩，地产拖累刚需，投机性需求有所增加，库存持续去化，但是依旧处于高位。 长期来看，玻璃供需仍偏宽松，关注后续玻璃行业去产能情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面大幅回落。截至收盘，纯碱期货主力2509合约跌幅6.45%。据隆众数据显示：纯碱产 能利用率 80.27%，环比下跌2.75%；产量 69.98万吨，环比下跌2.4万吨，库存 179.58万吨，环比下跌6.88万吨。 供需与逻辑：供应方面，目前纯碱产量保持高位且处于夏季检修阶段，纯碱产能释放相对克制，后期随着项目逐 步落地，纯碱产能或将进一步释放。同时光伏行业由于反内卷影响，存在减产预期，纯碱消费可能进一步走弱， 后期库存压力不断加大。后期仍需关注"反内卷"系列政策对供给的影响。 策略 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Neutral [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating [8] Core Views - Steel: The market has strong speculative sentiment, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. Steel is entering the off - season, with no obvious changes in fundamentals and slightly better de - stocking than seasonal expectations. The inventory of rebar is gradually decreasing, and the plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient due to price advantages, and the price is oscillating at the bottom [1]. - Iron Ore: Affected by market sentiment, the price is oscillating upwards. The overall supply is increasing, and iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The market sentiment is positive, and the prices are rebounding. For coke, after multiple price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: With the increase in downstream demand, the price is oscillating upwards. Some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the long term, the supply is still abundant [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The rebar futures contract closed at 3065 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton. The market speculative atmosphere is strong, and the futures trading volume has increased. The spot price has risen, and the national building materials trading volume was 12500 tons yesterday [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Commodity futures are generally rising, and steel is entering the off - season. The fundamentals are stable, and de - stocking is slightly better than expected. Rebar inventory is decreasing, and the plate has strong supply and demand. Steel exports are resilient, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and demand changes in the off - season [1]. - Strategy: Neutral for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Affected by market sentiment, the futures price is oscillating upwards. The price of imported iron ore has risen slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 1.06 million tons yesterday, a 0.19% increase from the previous day. The trading volume of forward - looking spot was 1.03 million tons, a 33.12% decrease [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume has decreased, but the overall supply is increasing. Iron ore consumption is resilient. In the short term, the price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the iron - making water production in the off - season and industrial policies [3]. - Strategy: Oscillating for single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating upwards. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1442 yuan/ton, a 3.15% increase; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 843.5 yuan/ton, a 3.18% increase. The trading atmosphere of imported coal has warmed up [5]. - Logic and Views: For coke, after price cuts, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is affected, and the inventory pressure is shifting to steel mills. For coking coal, environmental supervision and low - level imports provide price support, and the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The price is rebounding due to improved market sentiment [6]. - Strategy: Oscillating for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, some previously shut - down coal mines have resumed production, and the supply and output have increased. With the increase in high - temperature days, traders' bullish sentiment may persist, and some stocking demand will be released. The price in the production area fluctuates within 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the inventory is decreasing slightly, the market sentiment is positive, and the transaction price has increased, but high - price transactions are limited. The imported coal market is stable, with high - cost - performance of medium - and low - calorie coal, and active domestic bidding and restocking [8]. - Demand and Logic: In July, some coal mines have resumed production, and as the temperature rises, demand is expected to strengthen. In the short term, the price is rising slightly. In the long term, the supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8]. - Strategy: No specific strategy [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing a weak demand in the off - season, with both showing a trend of narrow - range fluctuations and a general outlook of weakening oscillations [1][2]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets have obvious off - season characteristics, with both showing a continuous oscillating trend [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures rebounded slightly yesterday. In the spot market, the morning buying sentiment was good, but the overall purchase volume was average. Except for a price increase of a small - board safety glass brand, other brands' quotes were stable [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures oscillated downward yesterday. In the spot market, the overall downstream procurement was average, mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the speculative sentiment was weak [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With some production lines in the red, the glass supply decreased month - on - month. The downstream rigid demand remained weak, and real - estate data was still at a low level. During the traditional consumption off - season, the high inventory of glass strongly suppressed prices. Attention should be paid to glass factories' cold - repair plans and profit situations [1]. - Soda Ash: As previously - overhauled alkali plants resumed production and new projects were launched, the soda ash output increased month - on - month, resulting in a relatively loose supply. The demand from the float and photovoltaic sectors weakened, and the real - estate sector continued to drag down consumption. With the expected contraction of float - glass supply in the future and the approaching of the short - term consumption off - season, the demand for heavy soda ash was expected to weaken further. In the long run, oversupply would continue to push down prices [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2]. - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2]. Double Silicon (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: Yesterday, the main contract of silicomanganese futures fell by 6 yuan/ton to 5610 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the silicomanganese market oscillated. At the beginning of the week, the market was full of wait - and - see sentiment, and there were few spot quotes. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese output rebounded from a low level, the molten - iron output increased slightly, and the demand for silicomanganese increased slightly. The inventories of silicomanganese manufacturers and registered warrants were at medium - to - high levels, suppressing the price of silicomanganese. The port inventory of manganese ore decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to silicomanganese inventories and manganese - ore shipments [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5316 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the ferrosilicon market rose slightly. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton (cash and tax included), and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton. Currently, the ferrosilicon output increased month - on - month, the demand increased slightly, and the factory inventory was at a high level. As the consumption off - season approached, the consumption intensity of ferrosilicon would be tested. The ferrosilicon production capacity was relatively loose, and the short - term price was dragged down by costs. However, the overall restocking of ferrosilicon was in a healthy state. Attention should be paid to the impact of electricity - price changes and industrial policies on the black - metal sector [3]. Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The pessimistic sentiment in the black commodities market is receding, leading to a bottom - up rebound. The glass and soda ash markets show a divergence between futures and spot prices due to cautious downstream procurement. The double - silicon market has a stabilized sentiment with alloy prices oscillating [1][3]. - Glass has a severe supply - demand contradiction with high inventory and lack of substantial production cuts. Soda ash faces continuous supply - demand surplus pressure and strong de - stocking pressure [1]. - For silicon manganese, low production due to profit issues and high inventory suppress prices, while manganese ore cost provides support. Silicon iron production is at a low level, but demand has some resilience, and short - term prices are affected by costs [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: Futures rebounded significantly yesterday, but spot trading was weak with mainly rigid demand procurement and low speculative sentiment. Soda ash: Futures rose sharply following black commodities, while downstream procurement was cautious with mainly rigid demand replenishment [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction is severe, high inventory suppresses prices, and there is no substantial production cut. Long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity, and later changes in production lines and raw material prices should be monitored. Soda ash: With new production projects coming online, the supply - demand surplus persists, and there is strong de - stocking pressure. Prices will be under pressure until the surplus situation eases, and attention should be paid to intermittent production line maintenance and new production [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating. Soda ash: Oscillating. No cross - period or cross - variety strategies are recommended [2]. Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon Manganese: Futures oscillated and rebounded with black commodities yesterday. The spot market was stable, and factories were reluctant to sell at low prices. The price in the northern and southern markets was 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton. Silicon Iron: Futures oscillated. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon Manganese: Production is at a low level due to industry profits, iron - water production has slightly declined but remains high, and demand has some resilience. High factory inventory and registered warehouse receipts suppress prices, while low - level manganese ore port inventory has slightly increased, and falling manganese ore prices support alloy costs. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply side. Silicon Iron: Production has dropped to the lowest level in recent years due to enterprise losses, high iron - water maintains demand resilience, factory inventory de - stocking is weakening, downstream inventory is low, and short - term prices are affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3]. - **Strategy** - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating. Silicon Iron: Oscillating [4].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-06-04 成本重心下移，钢价震荡偏弱 钢材：成本重心下移，钢价震荡偏弱 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日螺纹钢期货与热卷期货的主力合约低开弱势运行，钢材现货成交整体偏弱，低价刚需尚可，投 机情绪较差，各地价格对盘面跟随程度不一。钢银数据显示，建材库存环比下降，板卷库存有所回升，整体库存 小幅去化。 供需与逻辑：当前板材维持供需双强的格局，建材产销整体表现尚可，钢材库存持续去化，出口韧性延续。伴随 传统淡季来临，叠加全国中高考限制部分地区噪音作业，建材消费或将受到抑制，同时考虑到成本持续下移，钢 价支撑有所减弱，后期关注淡季成材需求表现及累库情况。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观政策、铁水产量、钢厂利润及检修情况、海外发运情况等。 铁矿：全球发运回升，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格震荡运行，现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌。贸易商报价积极 性一般，市场交投情绪冷清，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交82.8万吨，环比上涨12.35%； 远期现货累计成交75.0万吨，环比上涨19.05%。供给方面，本期全球铁矿石发运 ...

1. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures rebounded from a low level and showed a strong performance throughout the day, while the spot market was generally sluggish with some price cuts and slower shipments. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and there was no large - scale speculative restocking. Due to poor real - estate completion data, the market is pessimistic about glass consumption. With low production, weak consumption, high inventory, and short - term restocking unable to change the weak situation, attention should be paid to glass production line changes and real - estate data [1]. - Soda ash futures showed a weak and volatile trend with lower trading sentiment. The domestic soda ash price was weakly stable with flexible transaction prices. Enterprise production increased, especially for heavy soda ash, and inventory slightly decreased, but downstream demand was mainly rigid. With new production projects coming on stream, high supply pressure has reappeared, and attention should be paid to intermittent maintenance and new production of soda ash production lines [1]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - For silicomanganese, tariff fluctuations and poor off - season consumption expectations led to a collective decline in the black sector, with a 0.87% drop in silicomanganese futures. The spot market was weak, with prices in the north and south at 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton. Affected by industry profits, production is at a low level, although it has slightly rebounded week - on - week. With high pig iron production currently providing demand support but a strong expectation of a peak in pig iron production, high inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants are suppressing prices. Low - level and slightly rising manganese ore port inventory, along with falling manganese ore prices dragging down shipments, support alloy costs, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply side [3]. - Ferrosilicon futures followed the black sector and slightly declined. The spot market was weak with cautious operations. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. With enterprises in losses, production has dropped to a near - historical low. High pig iron production maintains demand, but inventory reduction is weakening, downstream inventory is low, and production capacity is relatively abundant. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs, and attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies affecting the black sector [4]. 2. Strategy - Glass is expected to be in a volatile state, while soda ash is expected to be volatile and weak. There are no strategies for inter - delivery or inter - commodity trading [2]. - Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to be in a volatile state [4].