万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3106 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 17 元/吨（0.550%）。当日注册仓单 45692 吨, 环比增加 2134 吨。主力合约持仓量为 130.1038 万手，环比减少 131667 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3250 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主 力合约收盘价为 3309 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 14 元/吨（0.424%）。 当日注册仓单 113732 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 99.9741 万手，环比减少 82348 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 黑色建材日报 2025-11-26 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周五铁矿收跌。夜盘收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、住建部：把城市更新摆在更加突出位置。 2、国家能源局：10 月全社会用电量 8572 亿千瓦时，同比增长 10.4%。 3、全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平均产能利用率 51.56%，环比下降 1.62 个百分点， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 同比下降 2.14 个百分点。其中华北区域降幅较为明显，华东、西南区域小幅下降， | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 华南、华中区域微幅上升，其余区域持平。全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂产品盈利情 | | | | | 况如下：16.53%的钢厂微利，46.28%的钢厂持平（这其中部分因停产导致产品盈利 | | | | | 情况持平），37.19%的钢厂亏损。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 基本面变化不大，上周螺纹、热卷和五大钢材产量均 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are advised for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum is for long - position reduction; nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch [1][20][23][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in a low - level sideways trend; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; red dates are expected to be in a slightly weak sideways trend [1][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are under pressure for rebound; eggs have limited upside potential; corn is in a bottom - building sideways trend; soybean meal is in a range - bound trend; oils and fats are in a weak adjustment [1][40][43][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It analyzes factors such as economic data, policy expectations, production, consumption, and inventory levels to predict price trends and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: They are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and are long - term bullish. With market hotspots rotating quickly and no clear main line, factors like US employment data and policy expectations affect the market. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. After previous trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term trading is influenced by news, economic data, and policy expectations, while long - term trading awaits signals from the Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a sideways trend. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory, with low purchasing willingness from various parties [7][8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. The futures price has fallen below certain cost levels, and in the short - term, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, with steel prices likely to be in a low - level sideways trend [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The main contract's position has reached a new high, and the market is weak due to factors such as unchanged supply, slowdown in restocking, and weakening demand. There is a risk of further demand decline and delivery pressure in the near - term [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level sideways trend. Market sentiment has turned cautious, and factors such as US government policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. Although there is long - term potential, short - term risks exist, and range trading or waiting and watching is advised [11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade sideways. Alumina production has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply and demand are balanced. With the approach of the off - season and other factors, the price is likely to be range - bound [12] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies. Indonesia's policy adjustment may affect supply, and there is an overall surplus in the nickel market, with different trends in various nickel products [16] - **Tin**: It is for cautious range trading. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak, but low overseas inventory provides some support [17] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. The US government's policy and Fed's interest - rate expectations affect the prices, and there is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates in Yichun and downstream production schedules [20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports are the main factors, and attention should be paid to cost, policy, and inventory changes [20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High inventory in the alumina industry exerts pressure on the caustic soda spot market, and attention should be paid to the verification of production - reduction expectations [23] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade sideways. Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to a balanced market, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and production schedules [24][25] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways, with support at the 15000 level. Cost support and inventory pressure coexist, and the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has some fluctuations [26] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade sideways. High supply, increasing demand in some sectors, and high inventory limit the upward potential of prices [28] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade sideways. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - level changes and production schedules [29] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. Cost compression, increasing supply, and weakening demand lead to a potential expansion of the supply - demand gap [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch. Supply is expected to contract, and cost support is strong, with limited downward space for the price [34][35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, and downstream consumption is weak [35] - **PTA**: It is in a low - level sideways trend. Supply is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is affected by factors such as oil prices and cost [35][37] - **Apples**: They are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend. With a decline in both production and quality, prices are likely to remain strong [37] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and prices are slightly loosening [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are under pressure for rebound. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as secondary fattening and demand, and long - term supply remains high [40] - **Eggs**: They have limited upside potential. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is stable. In the long - term, supply pressure may gradually ease [43] - **Corn**: It is in a bottom - building sideways trend. Short - term price is affected by new - grain listing, and long - term supply - demand is relatively balanced with some pressure on the upside [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a range - bound trend. US soybean supply - demand and domestic buying and selling affect the price, and range trading or basis pricing is recommended [45] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a weak adjustment. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and short - term adjustment risks exist, with long - term potential for wide - range fluctuations [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may have a marginal inflection point [2]. - For the black sector, compared with short - selling, the cost - effectiveness of finding positions to rebound may be higher. The subsequent price increase depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity [10]. - Industrial silicon may present a situation of "weak supply and demand" and is expected to operate in a volatile manner. Polysilicon is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and its price will fluctuate widely within the range [13][16]. - The glass industry's fundamentals continue to be weak, and the soda ash market lacks a clear direction and is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [19][21]. Summary by Categories Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.65%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 54306 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 57810 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the main contract was 3267 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4179 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 44323 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar: Supply and demand both decreased, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. - Hot - rolled coil: Terminal demand continued to rise, production declined slightly, but the inventory level was still high. In the short term, prices are likely to weaken, but steel demand may improve with policy implementation [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the open interest decreased by 3421 lots to 47.75 million lots. The weighted open interest was 93.23 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments increased significantly. Demand: The average daily molten iron output decreased, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. In the short term, iron ore is expected to operate within a volatile range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.50% at 5614 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the physical delivery price of 5840 yuan/ton, a premium of 226 yuan/ton over the futures price. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF603) closed down 1.05% at 5446 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. Strategy Views - As the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for ferrosilicon, the cost - effectiveness of operation is low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 9075 yuan/ton, down 3.35% (- 315). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 28315 lots to 442628 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged, and the basis was 275 yuan/ton; the price of 421 increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 75 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 52450 yuan/ton, down 3.98% (- 2175). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 4824 lots to 238398 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re -投料 remained unchanged, and the basis was - 150 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: It may present a "weak supply and demand" situation and is expected to operate in a volatile manner. - Polysilicon: It is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 989 yuan/ton, down 1.98% (- 20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (+ 0.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 16374 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 13285 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1158 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (- 24). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (- 0.09%), including a decrease of 1.98 million tons in heavy - soda ash inventory and 4.31 million tons in light - soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 974 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 15205 lots [20]. Strategy Views - Glass: The market lacks positive factors, supply is relatively abundant, demand is weak, inventory is high, and the industry fundamentals continue to be weak. - Soda ash: The supply - side capacity fluctuates little, the terminal glass price is weak, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [19][21].

市场情绪不振，钢价震荡偏弱 钢材：市场情绪不振，钢价震荡偏弱 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材期货主力合约震荡偏弱运行，现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交一般，环比明显转弱，投机情 绪较差，全国建材成交9.64万吨。 供需与逻辑：建材产销环比回落，库存维持去化，供给受到利润压制，基本面有所缓解。板带材矛盾在于高库存 和高产量，仍然需通过减产来化解基本面矛盾。短期价格维持震荡运行，后续观察冬储博弈及原料支撑情况。 黑色建材日报 | 2025-11-19 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需边际走弱，矿价宽幅震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏强运行，现货方面，进口铁矿石现货市场价格小幅波动，成交较少，贸 易商报盘积极性一般，报价多随行就市，主港铁矿累计成交60.6万吨，环比下跌20.05%。 供需与逻辑：目前铁矿石供给维持高位，库存持续增长，同时伴随着钢厂亏损减产，北方钢厂陆续公布检修计划， 铁水仍有季节性走弱预期。然而考虑到铁矿石到港量相对有限，矿价回调空间不足，大概率维持区间震荡运行， 后续关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index futures (medium to long - term) [1][4] - **Bearish**: Glass (sell call options),红枣 (oscillate weakly),生猪 (rebound under pressure),鸡蛋 (rise limited),玉米 (weakly oscillate),油脂 (rebound limited) [1][7][36][38][40][42][45] - **Neutral**: Treasury bonds,焦煤,螺纹钢,铜,铝,镍,锡,黄金,白银,PVC,烧碱,苯乙烯,橡胶,尿素,甲醇,聚烯烃,棉花 and棉纱,PTA,苹果 [1][4][6][9][10][15][16][17][18][26][34] Core Views - The market shows diversified trends across different sectors. In the macro - financial area, index futures are expected to rise in the long - run but may oscillate in the short - term, while treasury bonds will likely move in a range. In the black building materials sector, products like coking coal and rebar are in a state of oscillation. The non - ferrous metals market is generally neutral with different metals having their own influencing factors. The energy and chemical industry is mostly in a state of oscillation or weak oscillation. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock sectors also present various trends based on supply - demand and seasonal factors [1][4][6][9][18][34][38] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Index Futures**: Medium to long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips. The market is currently oscillating with rapid rotation of hotspots and an unclear main line. The general public budget revenue and expenditure data have certain impacts on the market [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate. The third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a limited possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year, and the market is in a wait - and - see and oscillating pattern [4][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Suggested for range trading. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. The price is at a low level with low static valuation, and the short - term steel price will mainly oscillate at a low level due to factors such as weakening demand and potential steel mill production cuts [6][7] - **Glass**: Recommended to sell call options. The market is weak with high inventory and weakening demand, and the technical indicators show a bearish trend [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The market is influenced by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and copper supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to observe or conduct light - position range trading [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The market is neutral and oscillating at a high level. The price is affected by factors such as bauxite prices, alumina production capacity, and downstream demand. It is recommended to strengthen observation [9][10][11] - **Nickel**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty to the supply, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to oscillate. The prices are affected by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16][17] Energy and Chemical - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies [18][19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is influenced by factors such as alumina production and inventory, and chlorine price [20][21] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [21][22][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is related to tire production. It is recommended to observe the 15000 support level [23][24][25] - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate. The market is affected by factors such as supply, cost, and demand [26][27] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, demand, and coal prices [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for 01 - contract short - position holders to exit and observe. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong [30][31][33] Cotton - spinning - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, and the downstream consumption is weak [34] - **PTA**: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and inventory [34][35] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The production and quality of apples have declined, and the price is expected to remain strong [35] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and the price is slightly loosening [36] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The price is under pressure. The short - term price is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and production capacity reduction [38][39] - **Eggs**: The price increase is limited. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure needs time to ease [40][41] - **Corn**: Expected to build a bottom through oscillation. The short - term price is supported by the slowdown of new - grain listing, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and cost [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic and international soybean markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand, and price differentials [44][45] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. The short - term price is in a low - level oscillation, and the long - term price is affected by factors such as policies and weather [45][47][49][50][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips [1][5][6] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5][6] - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Sell call options [1][9][10] - Copper: Exit long positions at high levels or range - bound short - term trading [1][11] - Aluminum: Suggest to buy on dips [1] - Nickel: Suggest to wait and see or short on rallies [1][17] - Tin: Range trading [1][18][19] - Gold: Range trading [1][19][20] - Silver: Range trading [1][19] - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 4700 resistance for 01 contract [22][23] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 2400 resistance for 01 contract [24][25] - Soda ash: Bearish strategy for 01 contract [1][32][34] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 6500 resistance [25][26] - Rubber: Range - bound, focus on 15000 support [27][28] - Urea: Range - bound [29][30] - Methanol: Range - bound [31] - Polyolefins: PE to range - bound, focus on 6800 support; PP to trade weakly, focus on 6500 support [32][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [37] - PTA: Low - level range - bound [37][38] - Apples: Range - bound with a strong bias [38] - Red dates: Range - bound with a downward trend [38] - Live pigs: Rebound under pressure [1][40][41] - Eggs: Limited upside [42][43] - Corn: Bottom - building in a range [44][46] - Soybean meal: Range - bound [47] - Oils and fats: Bottom - building and rebounding [48][53] Core Views - The global risk appetite and domestic favorable policies fail to boost the domestic market sentiment, and the index futures may trade in a range; the bond market lacks a clear core logic, and treasury bonds may also trade in a range [6] - The coal market shows a pattern of tight supply and rising prices, and the prices of coking coal and rebar may be range - bound; the supply of glass is high and demand is weak, and it is recommended to sell call options [8][9][10] - Copper prices are affected by macro and fundamental factors and are expected to trade at high levels in a range; aluminum prices are affected by supply, demand and inventory, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [11][12] - Nickel supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended to trade in a range [17][18][19] - Gold and silver prices are affected by the US economic situation and Fed policies, and are expected to trade in a range [19][20] - PVC, caustic soda, styrene, etc. are affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand and macro policies, and are expected to trade weakly in a range; rubber is expected to trade in a range [23][25][28] - Urea and methanol are affected by supply, demand and cost, and are expected to trade in a range; polyolefins are affected by cost, supply and demand, and are expected to trade weakly [29][31][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is expected to trade at a low level in a range; apples are expected to trade strongly in a range; red dates are expected to trade downward in a range [37][38] - Live pig prices are affected by supply and demand in different periods, and it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage; egg prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract [40][42][43] - Corn prices are affected by new grain listing and demand, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage; soybean meal prices are affected by US soybean supply and demand, and are expected to trade in a range [44][46][47] - Oils and fats prices are affected by palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil supply and demand, and are expected to bottom - build and rebound, and it is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to arbitrage [48][53][54] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Index futures: Affected by factors such as the decline in US private - sector employment and domestic market sentiment, it is expected to trade in a range [6] - Treasury bonds: Due to the unclear core logic of the bond market and the need to focus on the entry of allocation funds and the actions of the central bank, it is expected to trade in a range [6] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market has tight supply and rising prices, and it is expected to trade in a range [8] - Rebar: With narrow - range price fluctuations and weakening supply - demand margins, it is expected to trade in a range [8] - Glass: High supply, weak demand, and low - season downstream replenishment, it is recommended to sell call options [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by macro and fundamental factors, it is expected to trade at high levels in a range [11] - Aluminum: Affected by supply, demand and inventory, it is recommended to strengthen observation [12] - Nickel: Medium - long - term supply is expected to be abundant, it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17] - Tin: Supply is expected to improve, it is recommended to trade in a range [18][19] - Gold and Silver: Affected by the US economic situation and Fed policies, they are expected to trade in a range [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand and macro policies, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [23] - Caustic soda: Affected by alumina production and demand, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [25] - Soda ash: Supply is in excess, it is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy for the 01 contract [35][36] - Styrene: Affected by cost and supply - demand, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [26] - Rubber: Affected by supply and demand and inventory, it is expected to trade in a range [28] - Urea: Affected by supply, demand and cost, it is expected to trade in a range [29][30] - Methanol: Affected by supply, demand and cost, it is expected to trade in a range [31] - Polyolefins: Affected by cost, supply and demand, PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [32][33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Affected by global supply - demand and trade negotiations, it is expected to trade in a range [37] - PTA: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade at a low level in a range [37][38] - Apples: Affected by production and sales, it is expected to trade strongly in a range [38] - Red dates: Affected by supply and demand, it is expected to trade downward in a range [38] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: Affected by supply and demand in different periods, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage [40][41] - Eggs: Affected by supply and demand, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract [42][43] - Corn: Affected by new grain listing and demand, it is recommended to hedge on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage [44][46] - Soybean meal: Affected by US soybean supply and demand, it is expected to trade in a range [47] - Oils and fats: Affected by palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil supply and demand, it is expected to bottom - build and rebound, and it is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to arbitrage [48][53][54]

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Analysis - The glass futures market showed a volatile decline yesterday, while the spot price was stable with a slight increase, and downstream buyers purchased on - demand. The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market remains significant, with high inventory levels despite some destocking, and the medium - to - long - term demand is not optimistic due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the weak real - estate industry. The change of glass production lines should be continuously monitored [1]. - The soda ash futures market moved in a volatile manner yesterday, and downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, mainly purchasing at low prices for essential needs. The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market still exists. Although downstream essential demand is resilient, high inventory continuously suppresses prices, and the pressure of destocking persists throughout the year. The supply and cost changes of soda ash should be continuously monitored [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Strategy - The glass market is expected to be volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be volatile and weak. There are no strategies for inter - delivery and inter - commodity trading [2]. Group 3: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Analysis - The main contract of silicon manganese futures dropped in the afternoon following the coking coal sector yesterday. The mainstream steel procurement volume decreased slightly compared to the previous period. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5570 - 5620 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. Silicon manganese enterprises are continuously losing money, but production remains at a medium - to - high level, and enterprise inventory has reached a five - year high. However, the inventory of upstream manganese ore is continuously decreasing, and the total inventory of manganese elements remains stable. It is expected that the price of silicon manganese will continue to resonate with the black - series products and maintain a wide - range low - level volatile trend. The cost support of manganese ore and regional policies should be monitored [3]. - The main contract of silicon iron futures declined in a volatile manner yesterday. The silicon iron market showed little change, and the market mainly focused on order fulfillment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5700 yuan/ton. Currently, silicon iron has high production and high inventory, and demand is marginally weakening. The market mainly purchases on - demand. Although enterprises are continuously losing money, production has not been effectively restricted, and high inventory pressure will continue to suppress prices. With the increase in the prices of semi - coke and electricity in some regions, the cost of silicon iron has risen. The changes in coal and electricity prices on the cost side and regional policies should be monitored [3]. Group 4: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Strategy - Both the silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are expected to be volatile and slightly strong [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is average, and the black commodities are oscillating. Steel prices are running weakly, iron ore prices face downward pressure but are difficult to show a trend direction in the short - term, coking coal prices are oscillating, and power coal prices are rising [1][3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar closed at 3,024 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,253 yuan/ton, continuing the weak oscillation. The overall performance of spot steel transactions was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9.39 tons, still maintaining a low trading volume [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The cost - side support for rebar remains, and the policy side needs further observation. Under the current fundamentals, the futures market will continue the weak oscillation pattern. The consumption of hot - rolled coils still has certain resilience. The iron water flows to hot - rolled coils, so the production is at a relatively high level. Since steel mills currently have profits, their willingness to reduce production is low. In November, the number of planned maintenance and production reduction of steel mills increases, and there are also environmental protection restrictions in the north from time to time [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly. The enthusiasm of traders to offer was average, and the quotes mostly followed the market. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 1.088 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.53%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.499 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 107.62% [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - This week, the arrival volume of iron ore at ports rebounded significantly, a month - on - month increase of 58.6%. The current overall valuation of iron ore is neutral, and the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is changing from tight balance to looseness. The iron ore price faces downward pressure, but it is difficult to show a trend direction in the short - term under the support of downstream restocking demand. With the loss and production reduction of steel mills, the resilience of the demand side of iron ore has loosened, and the iron ore price faces correction pressure. Attention should be paid to the molten iron production and downstream inventory changes in the future [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures markets showed an oscillating and sorting trend, with obvious price differentiation between contracts. The closing prices of the main contracts of coking coal and coke both declined slightly. For imported Mongolian coking coal, the recent customs clearance volume has rebounded rapidly, the quotes fluctuate and adjust with the futures market, the trading volume is average, and the market is mostly in a cautious wait - and - see state [4] Logic and Viewpoints - For coking coal, the domestic mine supply has not fully recovered, but the recent rapid rebound of Mongolian coking coal customs clearance volume has a certain impact on the short - term price. From the perspective of inventory, the inventory at all links in the industry is at a medium - low level, and the coking coal inventory is significantly lower than the same period last year, which supports the market fundamentals to maintain resilience. The market's expectation of the subsequent rise of raw material prices continues to increase. The continuous rise of thermal coal spot prices further strengthens the support for coking coal prices. For coke, the supply has shrunk, the third round of price increase is still in progress, and the downstream steel enterprises on the demand side still mainly purchase for rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the new round of coke price increase, the steel mills' production reduction plans, and the recovery progress of coking coal supply [5] Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating; Coke: Oscillating; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5] Power Coal Market Analysis - In the production areas, the coal prices are still strong, and the supply is still tight. With the railway transportation discount again, the platforms and traders are actively pulling and transporting, and the miners' inventory has been at a low level for a long time. Miners are optimistic about the future price increase recently, believing that the supply - demand mismatch is difficult to change in the short - term. At the ports, the port transactions are still mainly long - term agreements. Affected by the upstream price increase, the traders' quotes remain high, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low. Currently, it is difficult to find low - priced coal at the ports, the inventory accumulation is less than expected, the downstream demand is good, and the short - term price will mainly rise. In terms of imports, the recent import coal market has been actively tendering, the domestic - foreign price difference is large, there is a certain profit in imported coal, and the center of the recently awarded bid prices has also risen [6] Demand and Logic - Affected by the tight supply in the production areas, the short - term price will oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged, but the winter heating peak season is coming, and the non - power demand of the downstream is strong. Attention should be paid to the overall consumption and restocking situation in the future [6] Strategy - No strategy provided [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a neutral stance on government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt a range trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on copper on dips without chasing highs; wait for price pullbacks to go long on aluminum; either hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on nickel on rallies; use a range trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; take a short position on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a slight upward bias; PTA is expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a slight upward bias; red dates are expected to trade in a range [1][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on hogs and eggs on rallies; corn is expected to trade with a downward bias; soybean meal is expected to rebound from a low level; oils are expected to experience a high-level adjustment with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong [1][39][40][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international trade relations [1][5][7] - It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors and market uncertainties when making investment decisions, and provides specific price ranges and trading strategies for different products [11][20][21] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias in the medium to long term. The recent market has seen an increase in trading volume, with sectors such as new energy and non-ferrous metals performing strongly. Positive factors such as Sino-US talks and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may support the upward movement of stock indices [5] - **Government Bonds**: The market is expected to trade in a range. Although the central bank will resume open market bond trading, the improving market risk appetite may limit the upward potential of government bonds [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking (Coking Coal and Coke)**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The recent price increase is mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream coking coal prices, and the short-term supply shortage is the core factor supporting the strong operation of coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The futures price has strengthened recently, and the low valuation and improving market sentiment may limit the downward space of steel prices. It is recommended to go long on the RB2601 contract on dips [7] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The recent fundamental situation has continued to deteriorate, and the lack of macro policy expectations may make it difficult for the price to rise. It is expected that the price will be more likely to fall than rise [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is expected to trade at a high level. The recent strong rise in copper prices is driven by factors such as supply shortage concerns and optimistic trade prospects. However, the high price may suppress downstream demand, and the price is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the near term [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to trade at a high level. The recent decline in electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the positive signals from Sino-US and overseas economic policies may support the price. It is recommended to take profit on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments and market sentiment [13] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia may bring some uncertainties to the supply of nickel ore, and the medium to long-term supply surplus may continue. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to use a range trading strategy and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The recent decline in prices is due to factors such as the improvement of the US government shutdown situation and the divergence in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts. However, the expected interest rate cuts and safe-haven sentiment may support the prices in the medium term [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The high supply and weak domestic demand, along with the uncertain export sustainability, may keep the PVC market in a weak position. However, the low valuation and potential policy and cost disturbances may limit the downward space [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The short-term supply pressure may be relieved by new maintenance, but the future increase in production and the weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream stocking rhythm and export situation [22][23] - **Styrene**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The high inventory and limited demand may lead to a weak supply-demand situation. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [23][24] - **Rubber**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The strong raw material prices and positive macro sentiment may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as inventory changes and downstream demand [25] - **Urea**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The increase in maintenance devices and the improvement in agricultural and industrial demand may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes and export situations [26][27] - **Methanol**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The decrease in production capacity utilization and the increase in demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry may support the price, but the high inventory may limit the upward space. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The expected increase in supply and the slow recovery of demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as downstream demand, Fed interest rate cuts, and Sino-US trade relations [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to take a short position on the 01 contract. The supply surplus and weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as supply and demand changes and cost pressures [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias. The increase in global cotton production and consumption, along with the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations, may support the price [35] - **PTA**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The weak supply-demand situation and the high inventory may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as oil prices and supply and demand changes [35][36] - **Apples**: The market is expected to trade with a slight upward bias. The stable market situation in the western regions and the increase in demand may support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as production and quality changes [36] - **Red Dates**: The market is expected to trade in a range. The stable market price and the expected increase in supply may lead to a stable price trend. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as new-season listing and price changes [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: The market is expected to face pressure on the upside. The current supply is relatively loose, and the intervention of secondary fattening may shift the supply pressure to the future. It is recommended to take a short position on the 01, 03, and 05 contracts in the medium term and pay attention to the supply and demand changes and capacity reduction [39][40] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to face pressure on the upside. The current supply is relatively large, and the seasonal decline in demand may limit the upward space of egg prices. It is recommended to take a short position on the 12 contract on rallies and hold a wait-and-see stance on the 01 contract [41][42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to trade with a downward bias. The increase in new grain supply and the weak demand may lead to a downward trend in prices. It is recommended to take a short position on the 01 contract on rallies and pay attention to factors such as policy and weather changes [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to rebound from a low level. The increase in soybean imports and the improvement in demand may support the price. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2601 contract and pay attention to the Sino-US trade relations and soybean procurement [46][47] - **Oils**: The market is expected to experience a high-level adjustment. The short-term pressure on the price is due to factors such as the increase in palm oil production and the weak demand. However, the potential supply shortage and the positive signals from Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations may support the price in the medium term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils and the spread between soybean and palm oils [48][49][54]