| | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月谨慎看涨 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 当前 02 合约养殖 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-19 市场情绪谨慎，钢价持续震荡 钢材：市场情绪谨慎，钢价持续震荡 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3125元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3277元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，期现承接力度减弱，投机少量拿货，刚需观望增多，基差整体收缩。全国建材成交102203。 供需与逻辑：建材方面：建材产量小幅翻红，库存持续降库，需求维持稳定。板材方面：板材产量稍有回落，需 求韧性仍在。短期市场原料端扰动频发，建材基本面矛盾不足，关注环保及季节性减产情况、需求去库变化、利 润状况、成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策。 策略 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 铁矿：铁水持续回落，矿价维持震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘777.5元/吨，较昨日结算价+12.5元，涨幅 1.63%；今开768.0，最高781.5，最低767.0；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、成交一般，贸易商报盘积极性一般， 钢厂维持按需补库，采购价格多随行就市。昨日全国主港铁 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-12 市场成交转弱，钢价震荡下行 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾持续，玻璃震荡偏弱 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡偏弱运行。现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。据隆众数据显 示：本周浮法玻璃厂家库存5822.7万重箱，环比减少2.05%。 供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加，供应收缩扰动下，带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍不足， 供需矛盾依旧较大。库存虽有所去化，但仍处高位，持续关注玻璃冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面窄幅震荡运行。现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。据隆众数据显示： 本周纯碱产量73.54万吨，环比增加4.48%；库存149.43万吨，环比减少2.88%。 供需与逻辑：纯碱成本端支撑有所减弱，库存虽有去化，但仍处于高位。且考虑到后续浮法玻璃冷修仍有增加预 期，重碱需求面临挑战，压制纯碱价格高度，持续关注下游需求情况对纯碱价格的影响。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 风险 宏观及房地产政策、宏观政策情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：建材消费下降，合金承压 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short term, but may see a marginal inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [2] - Iron ore has a high overall inventory but structural contradictions, with spot having some support. It is expected to operate within a volatile range [5] - Ferroalloy prices have declined significantly, but there is hope for a turnaround in market sentiment in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [9] - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [13][14] - Polysilicon is caught between reality and expectations, with prices expected to fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [16] - Glass prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, with limited room for further decline [19] - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation until the glass demand shows substantial improvement [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.550%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3309 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.424%), and the spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai also increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory continuously decreasing, presenting a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have a continuous recovery in terminal demand, but high inventory levels [2] - South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel products will affect steel exports to some extent [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.00 yuan/ton, up 0.44% (+3.50). The weighted position was 92.57 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.87% [4] Strategy Viewpoints - Overseas iron ore shipments decreased in the latest period, with reductions from Australia and Brazil. The shipments of the four major mines all declined. Non - mainstream country shipments reached a high for the year, and the near - end arrivals increased [5] - The average daily hot - metal output decreased, with more blast furnace overhauls than restarts due to weak downstream demand and poor profits. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline [5] - Port inventories decreased slightly, and steel mill inventories were consumed. There is a structural contradiction in iron ore, and the spot has some support [5] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Market Information - On November 25, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed up 0.11% at 5636 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 204 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - The ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) closed down 0.15% at 5448 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 48 yuan/ton to the futures [8] Strategy Viewpoints - Ferroalloy prices declined significantly due to weak market sentiment, cost - side pressure on coal, and a macro - policy window period. However, market expectations for a December interest - rate cut have risen, and the decline in coking coal prices may end [9] - It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price inflection points, and be cautious about overseas sentiment fluctuations [9] - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. Ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8960 yuan/ton, up 0.22% (+20). The weighted contract position increased by 3092 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged [12] - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 54730 yuan/ton, up 2.65% (+1415). The weighted contract position increased by 3595 hands. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged [15] Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon production decreased, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon showed different trends. The cost side provides support, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14] - Polysilicon production is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. However, prices are under pressure in the short term and are expected to fluctuate widely within a range [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.10% (+1). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (0.09%). The long and short positions of the top 20 holders decreased [18] - The soda ash main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-10). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (0.09%), with decreases in both heavy and light soda ash inventories. The long positions of the top 20 holders decreased, and the short positions increased [20] Strategy Viewpoints - The expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines in December is increasing, with insufficient downstream demand and weakening price expectations. Glass prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [19] - Soda ash supply exceeds demand, with differentiated demand. High inventory and weak demand are the main negative drivers, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, with the upper pressure level of the main 2601 contract at 810 and the support level at 750 [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore closed down on Friday and up at night [3] Important Information - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasized putting urban renewal in a more prominent position - The National Energy Administration reported that the total social electricity consumption in October was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 51.56%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.14 percentage points. The profit situation of these steel mills was as follows: 16.53% had small profits, 46.28% had flat profits (partly due to production suspension), and 37.19% were in the red [3] Market Logic - The fundamentals changed little. The production of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and five major steel products increased last week. Electric furnace steel was still losing money even during off - peak electricity hours. The current daily hot metal output was 236,280 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons, and it was expected to drop below 230,000 tons. The iron ore port inventory at 45 ports was 150.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 750,000 tons. Domestic iron ore arrivals were low, but shipments were active. Foreign port inventories were at the highest level since the fourth quarter [3] Trading Strategy - It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term. The upper pressure level of the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are advised for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum is for long - position reduction; nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch [1][20][23][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in a low - level sideways trend; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; red dates are expected to be in a slightly weak sideways trend [1][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are under pressure for rebound; eggs have limited upside potential; corn is in a bottom - building sideways trend; soybean meal is in a range - bound trend; oils and fats are in a weak adjustment [1][40][43][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It analyzes factors such as economic data, policy expectations, production, consumption, and inventory levels to predict price trends and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: They are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and are long - term bullish. With market hotspots rotating quickly and no clear main line, factors like US employment data and policy expectations affect the market. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. After previous trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term trading is influenced by news, economic data, and policy expectations, while long - term trading awaits signals from the Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a sideways trend. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory, with low purchasing willingness from various parties [7][8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. The futures price has fallen below certain cost levels, and in the short - term, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, with steel prices likely to be in a low - level sideways trend [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The main contract's position has reached a new high, and the market is weak due to factors such as unchanged supply, slowdown in restocking, and weakening demand. There is a risk of further demand decline and delivery pressure in the near - term [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level sideways trend. Market sentiment has turned cautious, and factors such as US government policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. Although there is long - term potential, short - term risks exist, and range trading or waiting and watching is advised [11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade sideways. Alumina production has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply and demand are balanced. With the approach of the off - season and other factors, the price is likely to be range - bound [12] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies. Indonesia's policy adjustment may affect supply, and there is an overall surplus in the nickel market, with different trends in various nickel products [16] - **Tin**: It is for cautious range trading. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak, but low overseas inventory provides some support [17] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. The US government's policy and Fed's interest - rate expectations affect the prices, and there is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates in Yichun and downstream production schedules [20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports are the main factors, and attention should be paid to cost, policy, and inventory changes [20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High inventory in the alumina industry exerts pressure on the caustic soda spot market, and attention should be paid to the verification of production - reduction expectations [23] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade sideways. Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to a balanced market, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and production schedules [24][25] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways, with support at the 15000 level. Cost support and inventory pressure coexist, and the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has some fluctuations [26] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade sideways. High supply, increasing demand in some sectors, and high inventory limit the upward potential of prices [28] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade sideways. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - level changes and production schedules [29] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. Cost compression, increasing supply, and weakening demand lead to a potential expansion of the supply - demand gap [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch. Supply is expected to contract, and cost support is strong, with limited downward space for the price [34][35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, and downstream consumption is weak [35] - **PTA**: It is in a low - level sideways trend. Supply is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is affected by factors such as oil prices and cost [35][37] - **Apples**: They are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend. With a decline in both production and quality, prices are likely to remain strong [37] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and prices are slightly loosening [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are under pressure for rebound. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as secondary fattening and demand, and long - term supply remains high [40] - **Eggs**: They have limited upside potential. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is stable. In the long - term, supply pressure may gradually ease [43] - **Corn**: It is in a bottom - building sideways trend. Short - term price is affected by new - grain listing, and long - term supply - demand is relatively balanced with some pressure on the upside [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a range - bound trend. US soybean supply - demand and domestic buying and selling affect the price, and range trading or basis pricing is recommended [45] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a weak adjustment. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and short - term adjustment risks exist, with long - term potential for wide - range fluctuations [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile, but with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may have a marginal inflection point [2]. - For the black sector, compared with short - selling, the cost - effectiveness of finding positions to rebound may be higher. The subsequent price increase depends on whether stimulus policies are introduced and their intensity [10]. - Industrial silicon may present a situation of "weak supply and demand" and is expected to operate in a volatile manner. Polysilicon is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and its price will fluctuate widely within the range [13][16]. - The glass industry's fundamentals continue to be weak, and the soda ash market lacks a clear direction and is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [19][21]. Summary by Categories Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.65%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 54306 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 57810 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the main contract was 3267 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 4179 tons, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 44323 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - Rebar: Supply and demand both decreased, inventory continued to decline, and the overall performance was neutral. - Hot - rolled coil: Terminal demand continued to rise, production declined slightly, but the inventory level was still high. In the short term, prices are likely to weaken, but steel demand may improve with policy implementation [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) closed at 788.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.38% (- 3.00), and the open interest decreased by 3421 lots to 47.75 million lots. The weighted open interest was 93.23 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: Overseas iron ore shipments increased significantly. Demand: The average daily molten iron output decreased, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. In the short term, iron ore is expected to operate within a volatile range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM601) closed down 0.50% at 5614 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the physical delivery price of 5840 yuan/ton, a premium of 226 yuan/ton over the futures price. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF603) closed down 1.05% at 5446 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5500 yuan/ton, a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][8]. Strategy Views - As the time approaches December, the impact of macro - expectations on sentiment and prices is expected to be positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore end; for ferrosilicon, the cost - effectiveness of operation is low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2601) was 9075 yuan/ton, down 3.35% (- 315). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 28315 lots to 442628 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged, and the basis was 275 yuan/ton; the price of 421 increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 75 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2601) was 52450 yuan/ton, down 3.98% (- 2175). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 4824 lots to 238398 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re -投料 remained unchanged, and the basis was - 150 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: It may present a "weak supply and demand" situation and is expected to operate in a volatile manner. - Polysilicon: It is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 989 yuan/ton, down 1.98% (- 20). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 5.60 million cases (+ 0.09%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 16374 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 13285 lots [18]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1158 yuan/ton, down 2.03% (- 24). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 6.29 million tons (- 0.09%), including a decrease of 1.98 million tons in heavy - soda ash inventory and 4.31 million tons in light - soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 974 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 15205 lots [20]. Strategy Views - Glass: The market lacks positive factors, supply is relatively abundant, demand is weak, inventory is high, and the industry fundamentals continue to be weak. - Soda ash: The supply - side capacity fluctuates little, the terminal glass price is weak, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [19][21].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, with steel prices oscillating weakly. The fundamentals of building materials have improved, while strip products need to reduce production to resolve contradictions. The short - term price will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support should be observed [1]. - The supply - demand of iron ore has weakened marginally, and ore prices will oscillate widely. Although there is a downward pressure on prices due to supply and demand, the limited arrival volume restricts the downward space, and future iron - water production and downstream inventory changes should be noted [3]. - The pressure of double - coking warehouse receipts is emerging, and the prices will oscillate weakly. The supply pressure of coking coal has been relieved, and the demand for coke needs attention due to factors such as steel mill profits and power - coal price fluctuations [4]. - The supply of thermal coal in the production area is tight, and coal prices have risen again. In the short - term, prices will oscillate strongly, and in the long - term, overall consumption and supply should be monitored [6]. 3) Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures oscillated weakly, and spot trading was average with a significant decline compared to the previous period. Building material production and sales decreased, and inventory continued to decline, while strip products faced high - inventory and high - production problems [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures oscillated strongly, and spot prices fluctuated slightly with less trading volume. The supply is high, inventory is increasing, and there is a seasonal weakening expectation for iron - water. However, the limited arrival volume restricts the downward space of prices [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Double - Coking - **Market Analysis**: Double - coking futures oscillated weakly, with a significant decline in the coking - coal main contract. The supply of coking coal has improved, and the demand for coke is affected by steel mill profits and other factors [4]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke strategies are to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: Due to factors such as safety inspections in production areas, coal prices have risen by 5 - 10 yuan/ton. There are different views on the port market, and the advantage of imported coal still exists [6]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: In the short - term, prices will oscillate strongly, and in the long - term, overall consumption and supply should be monitored [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index futures (medium to long - term) [1][4] - **Bearish**: Glass (sell call options),红枣 (oscillate weakly),生猪 (rebound under pressure),鸡蛋 (rise limited),玉米 (weakly oscillate),油脂 (rebound limited) [1][7][36][38][40][42][45] - **Neutral**: Treasury bonds,焦煤,螺纹钢,铜,铝,镍,锡,黄金,白银,PVC,烧碱,苯乙烯,橡胶,尿素,甲醇,聚烯烃,棉花 and棉纱,PTA,苹果 [1][4][6][9][10][15][16][17][18][26][34] Core Views - The market shows diversified trends across different sectors. In the macro - financial area, index futures are expected to rise in the long - run but may oscillate in the short - term, while treasury bonds will likely move in a range. In the black building materials sector, products like coking coal and rebar are in a state of oscillation. The non - ferrous metals market is generally neutral with different metals having their own influencing factors. The energy and chemical industry is mostly in a state of oscillation or weak oscillation. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock sectors also present various trends based on supply - demand and seasonal factors [1][4][6][9][18][34][38] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Index Futures**: Medium to long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips. The market is currently oscillating with rapid rotation of hotspots and an unclear main line. The general public budget revenue and expenditure data have certain impacts on the market [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate. The third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a limited possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year, and the market is in a wait - and - see and oscillating pattern [4][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Suggested for range trading. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. The price is at a low level with low static valuation, and the short - term steel price will mainly oscillate at a low level due to factors such as weakening demand and potential steel mill production cuts [6][7] - **Glass**: Recommended to sell call options. The market is weak with high inventory and weakening demand, and the technical indicators show a bearish trend [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The market is influenced by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and copper supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to observe or conduct light - position range trading [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The market is neutral and oscillating at a high level. The price is affected by factors such as bauxite prices, alumina production capacity, and downstream demand. It is recommended to strengthen observation [9][10][11] - **Nickel**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty to the supply, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to oscillate. The prices are affected by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16][17] Energy and Chemical - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies [18][19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is influenced by factors such as alumina production and inventory, and chlorine price [20][21] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [21][22][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is related to tire production. It is recommended to observe the 15000 support level [23][24][25] - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate. The market is affected by factors such as supply, cost, and demand [26][27] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, demand, and coal prices [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for 01 - contract short - position holders to exit and observe. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong [30][31][33] Cotton - spinning - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, and the downstream consumption is weak [34] - **PTA**: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and inventory [34][35] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The production and quality of apples have declined, and the price is expected to remain strong [35] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and the price is slightly loosening [36] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The price is under pressure. The short - term price is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and production capacity reduction [38][39] - **Eggs**: The price increase is limited. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure needs time to ease [40][41] - **Corn**: Expected to build a bottom through oscillation. The short - term price is supported by the slowdown of new - grain listing, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and cost [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic and international soybean markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand, and price differentials [44][45] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. The short - term price is in a low - level oscillation, and the long - term price is affected by factors such as policies and weather [45][47][49][50][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips [1][5][6] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5][6] - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Sell call options [1][9][10] - Copper: Exit long positions at high levels or range - bound short - term trading [1][11] - Aluminum: Suggest to buy on dips [1] - Nickel: Suggest to wait and see or short on rallies [1][17] - Tin: Range trading [1][18][19] - Gold: Range trading [1][19][20] - Silver: Range trading [1][19] - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 4700 resistance for 01 contract [22][23] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 2400 resistance for 01 contract [24][25] - Soda ash: Bearish strategy for 01 contract [1][32][34] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 6500 resistance [25][26] - Rubber: Range - bound, focus on 15000 support [27][28] - Urea: Range - bound [29][30] - Methanol: Range - bound [31] - Polyolefins: PE to range - bound, focus on 6800 support; PP to trade weakly, focus on 6500 support [32][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [37] - PTA: Low - level range - bound [37][38] - Apples: Range - bound with a strong bias [38] - Red dates: Range - bound with a downward trend [38] - Live pigs: Rebound under pressure [1][40][41] - Eggs: Limited upside [42][43] - Corn: Bottom - building in a range [44][46] - Soybean meal: Range - bound [47] - Oils and fats: Bottom - building and rebounding [48][53] Core Views - The global risk appetite and domestic favorable policies fail to boost the domestic market sentiment, and the index futures may trade in a range; the bond market lacks a clear core logic, and treasury bonds may also trade in a range [6] - The coal market shows a pattern of tight supply and rising prices, and the prices of coking coal and rebar may be range - bound; the supply of glass is high and demand is weak, and it is recommended to sell call options [8][9][10] - Copper prices are affected by macro and fundamental factors and are expected to trade at high levels in a range; aluminum prices are affected by supply, demand and inventory, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [11][12] - Nickel supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended to trade in a range [17][18][19] - Gold and silver prices are affected by the US economic situation and Fed policies, and are expected to trade in a range [19][20] - PVC, caustic soda, styrene, etc. are affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand and macro policies, and are expected to trade weakly in a range; rubber is expected to trade in a range [23][25][28] - Urea and methanol are affected by supply, demand and cost, and are expected to trade in a range; polyolefins are affected by cost, supply and demand, and are expected to trade weakly [29][31][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is expected to trade at a low level in a range; apples are expected to trade strongly in a range; red dates are expected to trade downward in a range [37][38] - Live pig prices are affected by supply and demand in different periods, and it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage; egg prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract [40][42][43] - Corn prices are affected by new grain listing and demand, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage; soybean meal prices are affected by US soybean supply and demand, and are expected to trade in a range [44][46][47] - Oils and fats prices are affected by palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil supply and demand, and are expected to bottom - build and rebound, and it is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to arbitrage [48][53][54] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Index futures: Affected by factors such as the decline in US private - sector employment and domestic market sentiment, it is expected to trade in a range [6] - Treasury bonds: Due to the unclear core logic of the bond market and the need to focus on the entry of allocation funds and the actions of the central bank, it is expected to trade in a range [6] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market has tight supply and rising prices, and it is expected to trade in a range [8] - Rebar: With narrow - range price fluctuations and weakening supply - demand margins, it is expected to trade in a range [8] - Glass: High supply, weak demand, and low - season downstream replenishment, it is recommended to sell call options [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by macro and fundamental factors, it is expected to trade at high levels in a range [11] - Aluminum: Affected by supply, demand and inventory, it is recommended to strengthen observation [12] - Nickel: Medium - long - term supply is expected to be abundant, it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17] - Tin: Supply is expected to improve, it is recommended to trade in a range [18][19] - Gold and Silver: Affected by the US economic situation and Fed policies, they are expected to trade in a range [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand and macro policies, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [23] - Caustic soda: Affected by alumina production and demand, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [25] - Soda ash: Supply is in excess, it is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy for the 01 contract [35][36] - Styrene: Affected by cost and supply - demand, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [26] - Rubber: Affected by supply and demand and inventory, it is expected to trade in a range [28] - Urea: Affected by supply, demand and cost, it is expected to trade in a range [29][30] - Methanol: Affected by supply, demand and cost, it is expected to trade in a range [31] - Polyolefins: Affected by cost, supply and demand, PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [32][33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Affected by global supply - demand and trade negotiations, it is expected to trade in a range [37] - PTA: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade at a low level in a range [37][38] - Apples: Affected by production and sales, it is expected to trade strongly in a range [38] - Red dates: Affected by supply and demand, it is expected to trade downward in a range [38] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: Affected by supply and demand in different periods, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage [40][41] - Eggs: Affected by supply and demand, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract [42][43] - Corn: Affected by new grain listing and demand, it is recommended to hedge on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage [44][46] - Soybean meal: Affected by US soybean supply and demand, it is expected to trade in a range [47] - Oils and fats: Affected by palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil supply and demand, it is expected to bottom - build and rebound, and it is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to arbitrage [48][53][54]