期货市场交易指引 2025 年 10 月 09 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 逢低买入 | | ◆黄金： | 逢低买入 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; bullish on glass, suggesting buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, suggesting waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pull - back; neutral on nickel, suggesting waiting or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, suggesting range trading; suggesting a short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy for soda ash [1][22][25][27][30][33][34][37] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting range trading; neutral on PTA, suggesting range trading; bullish on apples, suggesting a range - bound and upward - biased trend; bearish on jujubes, suggesting a range - bound and downward - biased trend [1][38][39][40][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting shorting on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting range trading; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting range trading; bullish on oils, suggesting a high - level range - bound trend with a buying - on - dips strategy [1][42][44][47][49][50] Core Views - The global economic and policy environment, including factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, trade policies, and domestic macro - policies, have a significant impact on various futures markets [11][13][18][22][25][37][43][44][47][50][53][54][55] - Seasonal factors, supply - and - demand fundamentals, and cost factors are important considerations for investment decisions in different futures markets [8][10][11][13][18][22][25][31][39][40][43][44][47][49][50][51][52][53][54][55] - Different futures varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific market conditions, such as range trading, buying on dips, shorting on rallies, and arbitrage strategies [1][5][7][8][9][11][13][15][16][18][19][21][22][24][26][28][30][33][34][36][38][39][40][42][44][46][48][50][55] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share markets experienced a pull - back after a rally on Friday. Policy support is positive, and it is recommended to rebalance in high - probability areas. Medium - to long - term outlook is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market is gradually recovering from previous adjustments, but investors remain cautious. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Pit - mouth coal price increases have slowed, and the market is in a stalemate. A range - trading strategy is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded on Friday. The fundamental supply - and - demand situation is weak in the short term, but traditional demand seasons may bring opportunities. A range - trading strategy is recommended with a focus on support levels [8] - **Glass**: Supply and demand conditions have improved. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and potential positive factors, a buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are rising in a range. With weakening of the US dollar and potential consumption recovery, prices are expected to remain strong. A range - trading or buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is supported, and the production of aluminum is stable. Demand is entering the peak season, and a buying - on - dips strategy or an arbitrage strategy is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: Supply concerns and macro - factors affect prices. In the short term, prices are affected by the macro - environment, and in the long term, supply is in surplus. A shorting - on - rallies strategy is recommended [18] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to be supported. A range - trading strategy is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: Due to weakening US economic data and expectations of interest - rate cuts, prices are expected to have support. A range - trading strategy is recommended [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Supply is high, demand is mediocre, and exports face challenges. Prices are expected to be range - bound, and key factors such as macro - data and exports should be monitored [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by factors such as spot prices and demand. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and downstream stocking and export conditions should be monitored [25] - **Styrene**: Cost and demand factors influence prices. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as oil prices and supply - and - demand fundamentals should be monitored [27] - **Rubber**: Overseas raw material prices are falling, and market sentiment is bearish. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and support levels should be monitored [29] - **Urea**: Supply and demand are weak, and inventories are increasing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be monitored [30][31][33] - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Key factors such as coal prices and downstream demand should be monitored [33] - **Polyolefins**: The "Golden September and Silver October" season may boost demand, but supply and cost factors limit price increases. A range - trading strategy is recommended [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a tug - of - war between expectations and reality. A short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy is recommended [37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - and - demand conditions are improving, but new - crop production may bring downward pressure. Hedging preparations are recommended [38] - **PTA**: Recent inventory reduction is good, but long - term supply increases and weak oil prices may lead to price drops. A range - trading strategy is recommended [39][40] - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are priced higher than last year, and the market is expected to be range - bound and upward - biased [40] - **Jujubes**: Consumption is weak, and prices are under pressure. A range - bound and downward - biased trend is expected [41] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large in the short term, and prices are under pressure. Policy support may bring some rebounds. A short - selling strategy with stop - profit and potential arbitrage opportunities is recommended [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as cold - storage egg releases and chicken culling [44] - **Corn**: New - crop supply and cost factors affect prices. A range - trading strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended, and factors such as weather and policies should be monitored [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to be stable, and domestic supply - and - demand conditions are changing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and key factors such as US - China trade relations should be monitored [48][49][50] - **Oils**: Short - term prices are affected by various factors, but support levels exist. A buying - on - dips strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended [50][51][52][53][54][55]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the A-share market is attributed to long-term valuation compression and the potential for valuation recovery, which has been building up over the past few years [1] Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes "value anchoring and going with the trend," focusing on maintaining a balanced portfolio while adhering to low valuation assets for a more "secure" investment approach [1][5] - The strategy involves a flexible adjustment to market conditions, allowing for rebalancing of positions and combinations based on market dynamics [7] Investment Strategy - The preferred investment model is to focus on low-valuation assets, reflecting a preference for a stable investment style [5] - The approach includes diversified sector allocation and holding assets at different valuation realization stages, rather than concentrating on a single high-risk investment [5] - The focus is on capturing valuation recovery rather than speculative valuation expansion, with a keen eye on risk-reward ratios and certainty [5][6] Market Outlook - The investment outlook remains positive across multiple sectors, including innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, cyclical industries, automotive, and public utilities [10][11] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is particularly highlighted as a promising area, with expectations for domestic companies to transition from following to leading innovation [10] - The AI sector is noted for its potential, especially in computing power and humanoid robotics, which are expected to become significant markets [11] Sector-Specific Insights - In advanced manufacturing, the shift towards higher value chain segments is seen as crucial for enhancing competitiveness and market returns [11] - The cyclical sector, particularly energy and chemicals, is anticipated to see price stabilization and growth potential due to favorable market conditions [11] - In the automotive sector, the focus is on identifying companies undergoing deep reforms or new product cycles, with an emphasis on smart and robotic trends [11] - The public utilities sector is viewed as presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities due to currently reasonable valuations and expected growth in electricity demand [11] Conclusion - Overall, the A-share market is expected to witness a maturation of shareholder return and market value management systems, with a focus on identifying undervalued assets that show potential for fundamental improvement [12]

Group 1 - The ETF market opened with mixed performance, with the Huabao Sci-Tech AI ETF (589520) leading the gains at 1.92% [1] - The Sci-Tech Board AI ETF (588930) increased by 1.72%, while the Guotai Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) rose by 1.54% [1] - The Energy and Chemical ETF (159981) experienced the largest decline at 3.63%, followed by the Coal ETF (515220) down 2.24%, and the Commodity ETF (510170) falling by 1.57% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including supply - demand analysis, price trends, and trading strategies for each product [2]. - For most products, the short - term trends are characterized by oscillations, with some showing short - term strength or weakness, and some having long - term pressure or potential for improvement. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Aromatics and Polyester - related Products PX - **Market Overview**: A 350,000 - ton PX device in Japan has unexpectedly stopped for maintenance, and a domestic supplier's July PX contract advance payment is set at 7,250 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply continues to shrink, and the unilateral price is expected to be strong, with the spread still favoring positive spreads. The Asian operating rate will further decline, while PTA device supply will increase slightly next week [8]. PTA - **Market Overview**: A 200,000 - ton IPA device in East China has restarted [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost has support, but the spread is under pressure. The unilateral price oscillates slightly stronger. The supply - demand pattern will shift from rapid destocking to a more balanced state, and it is recommended to reverse the spread at high levels [8][9]. MEG - **Market Overview**: The average spot price on June 27 was 4,346 yuan/ton, and the average price of futures for late July was 4,347 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The unilateral price oscillates and stabilizes. After the maintenance of multiple devices, the supply has decreased, but imports are expected to increase. With polyester device production cuts in July, the previous sharp decline has occurred. Considering cost support, further short - selling is not recommended [9]. 2. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Overview**: As of June 25, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 0.04 million tons compared to the previous period, and the butadiene inventory in East China ports slightly decreased [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term trend is oscillatory. The fundamental situation of the butadiene rubber industry chain is currently neutral to weak, and short - term oscillations are expected without an obvious trend [12]. 3. Asphalt - **Market Overview**: As of June 26, domestic asphalt factory and social inventories increased, and the weekly output increased by 2.4% week - on - week and 21.5% year - on - year [13][24]. - **Market Analysis**: It shows a weak oscillation. The long - spread cracking trading strategy is considered to take profit. The cost side has a significant impact on prices, and industry players are cautious in purchasing [13][24]. 4. LLDPE - **Market Overview**: The market price oscillates weakly, with a price range of 20 - 50 yuan/ton. End - of - month petrochemical sales suspension and settlement have led to stable ex - factory prices [25]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, it mainly oscillates. The premium caused by polyethylene import risks has been reversed. Although social sample warehouse inventories are decreasing, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [26]. 5. PP - **Market Overview**: The domestic PP market fluctuates within a narrow range. The impact of futures oscillations on spot trading is limited, and downstream factories are cautious in purchasing [29][30]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term trend is oscillatory with light trading volume, and the trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [30]. 6. Caustic Soda - **Market Overview**: The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong remains stable, and some enterprises with poor order - signing and rising inventories have lowered prices [32]. - **Market Analysis**: It rebounds in the short term but faces pressure in the long run. The decline in the spot price is due to the price cut by Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the rebound in coal prices and the expected increase in electricity prices in summer have led to a certain repair of the long - term valuation [33]. 7. Glass - **Market Overview**: The price of domestic float glass raw sheets is mainly stable, with slight price adjustments in some areas [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term trend is stable, and there is no obvious change in demand [37]. 8. Methanol - **Market Overview**: Last week, methanol port inventories increased significantly, with different inventory trends in various regions. The hype about the Iranian issue has ended, and some MTO factories have unexpectedly stopped production [41]. - **Market Analysis**: It oscillates in the short term. The supply - demand pattern will shift to small - scale inventory accumulation, profit compression, and seasonal maintenance production cuts. The absolute price oscillates mainly [41]. 9. Urea - **Market Overview**: Last week, export news led to increased market speculation, but the overall trading volume returned to light on Friday - Sunday. As of June 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 3.53% week - on - week [44]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the spot price oscillates under pressure, and the futures oscillate. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [44][46]. 10. Styrene - **Market Overview**: In 2025, the supply pressure of pure benzene is high, and the supply - demand pattern of styrene will reverse in the second half of the year, with increasing supply and weakening demand [48][49]. - **Market Analysis**: It oscillates in the short term. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. The high - profit state of styrene is difficult to sustain in Q3, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of basis decline and profit compression [47][49][50]. 11. Soda Ash - **Market Overview**: The domestic soda ash market oscillates weakly, with general trading atmosphere and moderate restocking at low prices. The output of Boyuan Yingen is gradually increasing [53]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term market is expected to adjust weakly, with flexible trading [53]. 12. LPG - **Market Overview**: Saudi Aramco's July CP prices for propane and butane have decreased compared to the previous month. There are many PDH device maintenance plans in China [63][64]. - **Market Analysis**: It oscillates in the short term [55]. 13. PVC - **Market Overview**: The PVC spot market oscillates and rises, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the trading volume remains light [67][68]. - **Market Analysis**: It is short - term strong but has limited upside space. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market will continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [67][68]. 14. Fuel Oil - **Market Overview**: The night - session of fuel oil remains weak, and the short - term volatility decreases. The low - sulfur fuel oil shows an oscillatory adjustment trend, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [71]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term trends of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are mainly oscillatory [71]. 15. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Overview**: The EC futures show different price changes, and the SCFIS and SCFI for European and US - West routes have different weekly and bi - weekly increases [73]. - **Market Analysis**: It oscillates in the short term [73].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Friday, the polyolefin market showed weak performance. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined. However, due to cost - side fluctuations, polyolefins at a low - valuation state resist downward movement. After the Sino - US meeting over the weekend, attention should be paid to subsequent energy - chemical and tariff policies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6911, 7230, and 6976 respectively, with price drops of - 37, - 60, and - 40, and percentage drops of - 0.53%, - 0.82%, and - 0.57%. The trading volumes were 19578, 525, and 263134, and the open interests were 69739, 4448, and 544266, with increases of 2720, - 465, and 8999 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 319, 254, and 65, compared to previous values of - 342, 274, and 68 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6886, 7076, and 6967 respectively, with price drops of - 18, - 6, and - 18, and percentage drops of - 0.26%, - 0.08%, and - 0.26%. The trading volumes were 14072, 777, and 254390, and the open interests were 38629, 4422, and 476705, with increases of 2414, - 398, and 10804 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 190, 109, and 81, compared to previous values of - 178, 97, and 81 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2231 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2221 yuan/ton, 6530 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7900 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Friday (May 9), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.02 per barrel, up $1.11 or 1.85% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.89 - $61.45. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.91 per barrel, up $1.07 or 1.70% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.84 - $64.24 [2].