各位投资者大家早上好啊我是开源证券北交所研究中心的总经理朱海斌那么今天呢是我们组织的北交所的每周会谈系列的第六期啊然后是我们今天交流的主题的话呢是北证这个市场的话2025年业绩快报的一个分析啊以及对于 决定北争武林指数相关的权重迁移这方面带来投资机会的这样的一个专题那么在今天早晨的话我相信大家非常也是关注周末的关于美国和伊朗以及以色列的争端吧这个争端可能 引发了市场周末的一些不确定性然后大家也非常关注于对整个EGO市场以及北交所市场相关的一些影响那么在这块的话呢也跟大家汇报一下我们在周末呢就是也是发布过了一个这个投资者调查问卷啊也是我们每周的这个调查问卷在这个问卷里面的话呢我们叫龙头叫北争风向标那在这个风向标中 我们也是问到了投资人怎么看待一个是美宜的这样这样的行情对于北交所影响另外一个呢就是三月份马上面临两会啊那么从大家的调查问卷我们在周日晚上发布的结果来看的话呢 嗯整个投资人对于就是这周的整个看法啊对于两会以及每一对北交所市场的影响的话啊大概的这个乐观乐观情绪还是比较高的啊大约有百分之四成以上的这个投资人是觉得有有机会是迎来向好的一行情的然后对于整个三月份的行情整个 呃投资人的这个看法预期也是偏乐观的啊大 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock indices, "sideways movement" for treasury bonds, etc. [1][5] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple futures markets, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading suggestions and market analysis for each product based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and geopolitical events. [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Market is resilient, influenced by factors like Fed's policy, geopolitical events, and real - estate policy. [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Sideways movement. There is no significant explicit negative factor, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflow. [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. Coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but price increase sustainability is limited due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply. [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. Futures price is slightly higher than off - peak electricity cost of electric arc furnace and lower than peak electricity cost. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. [8] - **Glass**: Hold off. Supply is stable, demand is weak in the north and has local support in the south. There is a risk of production - sales decline before the Spring Festival. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Hold off or hold long positions with light positions and roll. Macro - factors support prices, but fundamentals are weak. There is a risk of callback before the Spring Festival. [11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is relatively stable, demand is entering the off - season, and prices may continue high - level adjustment. [13] - **Nickel**: Hold off. Indonesian quota reduction boosts sentiment, but fundamentals are weak. Price increase may be fully priced. [14][15] - **Tin**: Range trading or take profit on previous long positions. Supply is tight, consumption is in a recovery trend, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical tensions and Fed's policy affect prices. Mid - term price center moves up. [17] - **Silver**: Bullish. Similar to gold, geopolitical and economic factors drive prices up. Mid - term price center moves up. [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply is affected by mine risks, demand is strong, and prices are expected to be bullish. [18][19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and export is a key factor. Low - level may have been reached, long - term long - position thinking. [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Hold off. Demand is weak, supply is high, and there is short - term delivery pressure. [21] - **Styrene**: Range trading. Price rebounds due to export and maintenance, but valuation is high. Long - term, pay attention to cost and supply - demand improvement. [21] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is expected to shrink seasonally, cost supports prices, but there is a risk of callback. [23] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply is increasing, demand from compound fertilizer and other industries supports prices, and prices are expected to move sideways. [25] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand from olefin production and traditional downstream is weak, and prices are affected by geopolitical and port factors. [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Bearish sideways. Supply increases, demand from PE downstream declines, and PP has some support. Prices are expected to be weak. [27] - **Soda Ash**: Hold off. Supply is expected to contract, demand from downstream is mixed, and cost supports prices. [28] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Sideways adjustment. Global cotton supply decreases and demand increases, but internal - external price difference suppresses domestic prices. [28] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. Market is generally stable and weak, with different trading situations in different regions. [30] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. Raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, with a high - quality - high - price principle. [30] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Short - term price fluctuations are limited, and long - term price increase is cautious. Short - term, short on rallies for off - season contracts; long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction. [31][33] - **Eggs**: Rebound from low levels. Current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. [34][35] - **Corn**: Upside limited. Short - term supply - demand is balanced, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. [36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: Sideways at low levels. Short - term, M2603 contract moves sideways; long - term, 05 contract is under pressure. [37] - **Oils**: Bullish sideways. Fundamental factors support price increases, but the upward momentum may weaken over time. [37][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information in the provided document about the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the macro - financial field, policies such as central bank's monetary policy and special treasury bond issuance have an impact on the economy. In various commodity markets, different varieties have different trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and geopolitical situation [10][14][17]. - For different commodities, specific investment strategies are proposed. For example, in the black market, steel is expected to oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak; in the energy - chemical market, the price of crude oil may turn weak, while some other products have their own specific trends and trading suggestions [17][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued, which will drive over 460 billion yuan of total investment. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation on January 23, with a net injection of 70 billion yuan [10]. - The unemployment rates of different age groups in the urban labor force in December 2025 are announced. Nine departments jointly issued an opinion to promote the high - quality development of the drug retail industry [10]. - International news includes the US - Greenland agreement, the US's attempt to subvert the Cuban regime, the US GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, inflation indicators, and the expected policy rate of the Bank of Japan [11][12]. Macro - finance Stock Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range consolidation. If there is no further increase in volume and a reverse - enveloping negative line in the near future, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The medium - term liquidity expansion may repair the tight capital situation. The ultra - long - term bonds may continue to rebound due to the decline in risk appetite [15]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The macro - policy has limited short - term impact on demand. The supply of the steel industry is relatively stable. The fundamentals of steel are acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is expected to oscillate. Steel will oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and decline in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream procurement and iron - making output [17]. Ferroalloys - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is slightly rising. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips in the medium term, and hold the short positions of manganese silicon established at high levels [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The demand is good, the supply is disturbed, and the market sentiment is rising. In the short term, lithium carbonate will run with a strong bias [22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and will oscillate. Wait for the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options after the rebound. Polysilicon will also oscillate, waiting for the guidance of anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [23][24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Zhengzhou cotton is in a short - term strong consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [25]. Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand. Zhengzhou sugar is under pressure from external and domestic supply, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken before the festival. The upside of the egg futures is limited, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [30]. Apples - The apple futures may run strongly. The market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint, and attention should be paid to the consumption performance during the Spring Festival stocking period [32]. Corn - The corn futures have large differences in the market. Pay attention to the port collecting situation, and short - term trading is recommended [33]. Red Dates - Keep an eye on the performance of the consumer market during the peak season. Currently, the market is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Pigs - The market sentiment has peaked, and the breeding side is more willing to sell. The spot price may decline, and it is advisable to short the near - month contracts on rallies [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Due to the upcoming negotiation and the increase in EIA inventory, the oil price may turn weak. However, attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [37]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will fluctuate with the oil price [38]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure, but the upstream losses may support the price. The short - term trend is strong, but the rebound space is limited [39]. Rubber - Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the upcoming suspension of overseas production may support the price. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [40]. Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene and market sentiment. It may oscillate upward in the first half of the year, and it is advisable to go long on dips [42]. Methanol - The short - term inventory of methanol is decreasing smoothly, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and it is advisable to consider a slightly long - position configuration for the far - month contracts after the callback [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot is under pressure, but the futures can be considered from a long - position perspective [44]. Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the oil price and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [45]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market is expected to run strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider rolling long positions at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - There is support from import costs, and the short - term downside is limited. In the long term, a light - position short - selling attempt can be considered [48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The spot price has回调, and the futures may repair the basis. The downside is limited [49]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The futures are expected to oscillate [50]. Urea - The urea futures are expected to oscillate strongly. The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive: LPG, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Propylene (LPG and Propylene are mentioned together, and Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil are also related) [47][57] - Negative: LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Glass, PVC, Soda Ash [17][20][25][32][55][45] - Neutral: PX, PTA, MEG, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Container Freight Index (Europe Line) [7][8][9][12][28][38][41][42][77][80][85] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical futures on January 22, 2026, including factors such as supply - demand, price trends, and geopolitical impacts. For example, the tension in the Iran situation affects the oil price, which in turn impacts PX and other related products. The market trends of different products are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Expected to open higher due to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on oil prices. The supply is loose, and the downstream PTA device maintenance leads to a gradual increase in supply. It is recommended to pay attention to hedging operations such as long PX short PTA [7] - **PTA**: The valuation is supported by the rebound of oil prices. It is recommended to focus on reducing processing fees. The future supply - demand is weak, and it turns into a state of inventory accumulation [8] - **MEG**: The valuation below 3600 has support, showing a range - bound market. The port inventory accumulation pressure increases, and the supply is still relatively high [8] Rubber - The rubber market is in a state of shock operation. The inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the downstream production and sales are under pressure. The total supply is shrinking, and the cost support is strengthening [9][11] Synthetic Rubber - The butadiene price stabilizes, and the futures price rebounds. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased, and the butadiene port inventory has decreased significantly [12][13] LLDPE - In December, the import exceeded expectations, and the upstream quotation loosened. The supply pressure exists in the medium - term due to high production capacity and weakening demand [15][16] PP - The production scheduling remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The cost is high, the demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [18][19] Caustic Soda - The price continues to decline due to cost reduction and supply - demand collapse. There is a pressure to reduce inventory before the Spring Festival, and the far - month contract may face cost increase and supply reduction [22][23] Pulp - The pulp market is in a state of shock operation. The demand is weak, the port inventory pressure exists, and it is recommended to pay attention to factors such as the stability of the futures market and the downstream procurement willingness [28][29] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market trading atmosphere is not strong, and the downstream procurement demand is limited [32] Methanol - The methanol market is expected to be in a shock operation. The inventory in ports has increased slightly, and the cost provides certain support [37][38] Urea - The urea market is in a state of shock adjustment with support at the bottom. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the medium - term [39][40][41] Styrene - The styrene market shows a strong - shock trend. The export exceeds expectations, the downstream replenishment cycle starts, and the market rebounds [42][43] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is average [45] LPG, Propylene - The LPG market is supported by heating demand, and the PG trend is strong. The propylene spot maintains a tight balance [47] PVC - The PVC market is in a weak - shock state. The supply is sufficient, the demand is in the off - season, and the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [54][55] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is short - term strong with increasing fluctuations. The low - sulfur fuel oil mainly follows the upward trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [57] Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - The container freight index (Europe Line) is in a temporary shock market. The impact of geopolitical factors, supply - demand changes, and policy adjustments on the market should be considered [59][70][71][72] Short - fiber, Bottle - chip - Both the short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are in a short - term shock state. The short - fiber processing fee is at a low level, and the bottle - chip market has a certain trading atmosphere [77][78] Offset Printing Paper - The offset printing paper market is recommended to be on the sidelines. The price is stable, the new orders in the market are limited, and the dealer inventory reduction is slow [80][81] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market shows a strong - shock trend. The port inventory has decreased, and the market transaction is good due to the impact of the unexpected shutdown of related factories [85][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has risen significantly, and market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, attention should be paid to market rhythm, and the strategy should be based on buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs further observation, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The central bank's attitude towards capital protection remains, and the capital market is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the first quarter [7]. - For precious metals, the short - term driving force for gold and silver prices is weakening, but in the medium - term, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts and other factors may lead to a significant increase in prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, although the market sentiment is cooling, the financial market liquidity in the US is still expected to be loose. The copper market has a tight supply of copper ore but a relative surplus of refined copper, so the price is expected to be volatile. The aluminum market is restricted by the high - level of US aluminum spot premium and low inventory, and the price is expected to be relatively firm. Zinc and lead prices have the potential to catch up, and nickel and tin prices are expected to be volatile. The price of lithium carbonate has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The price of alumina is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. The stainless steel market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [12][14][17][19][22][24][26][29][30][33]. - For black building materials, the steel market is in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress of hot - rolled coils and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies. The iron ore price is supported but may oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythm. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be oscillating and strong, but attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations. The glass market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and the soda ash market is expected to be weakly sorted. The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and attention should be paid to relevant policies. The industrial silicon price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [36][39][43][45][47][50][51][54][56]. - For energy and chemical products, the rubber price is seasonally weak, and a short - selling strategy is recommended if it breaks through a certain level. The oil price is not recommended to be overly short - sold in the short - term, and a range - trading strategy is maintained. The methanol price has limited downward space and is suitable for buying on dips. The urea price is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies. For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter. The PVC price is fundamentally poor, and a short - selling strategy is recommended in the medium - term. The ethylene glycol price is expected to compress the valuation in the medium - term. The PTA price is expected to accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival, and there are long - term opportunities. The PX price is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season and has long - term opportunities. The polyethylene and polypropylene prices are affected by supply and demand, and relevant trading strategies are recommended [61][63][66][68][70][73][75][77][79][81][84]. - For agricultural products, the short - term price of live pigs may be strong in the near - term, but the medium - term price is under pressure. The egg price is expected to oscillate, with limited upward and downward space. The protein meal price has increased short - term volatility due to multiple negative factors. The short - term outlook for edible oils is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cotton price is affected by domestic factors, and it is recommended to wait for a callback to go long [87][89][92][95][98][101]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The A - share market should aim for a long - term bull market rather than a "crazy bull market." The commercial aerospace sector has new developments, and the Spring Festival Gala has completed its first rehearsal. The State Council has studied consumption - promotion measures [2]. - **Basis - Point Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis - point ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and market trading volume has rapidly expanded. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged in the long - term. In the short - term, attention should be paid to market rhythm, and the strategy should be based on buying on dips [4]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has emphasized market stability, and there are speculations about the next Fed Chairman [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank has conducted 867 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 527 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs further observation, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The central bank's attitude towards capital protection remains, and the capital market is expected to be stable. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the first quarter [7]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, and the prices of COMEX gold and silver have also changed. The expected candidate for the new Fed Chairman has changed, weakening the expectation of significant interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, leading to a short - term correction in gold and silver prices [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term driving force for gold and silver prices is weakening, but in the medium - term, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts and other factors may lead to a significant increase in prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference operating range of 985 - 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 19050 - 23688 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The copper price has fallen, LME copper inventory has increased, and domestic inventory has also changed. The spot discount of copper has returned, and the import loss has narrowed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of Trump imposing tariffs on key minerals has weakened, and the plan to impose tariffs on 8 European countries has cooled market sentiment, but the expectation of loose liquidity in the US financial market remains. The supply of copper ore is tight, but the supply of refined copper is relatively surplus. The copper price is expected to be in a volatile state, with the reference range of 98000 - 102000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 12500 - 13000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price has continued to fall, the trading volume has decreased, and the inventory has changed. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum has expanded, and the LME aluminum inventory has decreased [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The continuous accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the cooling of the precious metals and copper markets have caused the aluminum price to fall back. However, the high premium of US aluminum spot and the low LME global aluminum inventory limit the downward space of the aluminum price. As the price corrects, the downstream inventory is expected to increase, and the aluminum price may be relatively firm in the short - term, with the reference range of 23800 - 24200 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3090 - 3160 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price has fallen, and relevant information on inventory, basis, and other aspects is provided [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The port inventory of zinc ore has slightly decreased, and the import TC of zinc concentrate has also slightly decreased. The zinc price has a certain potential to catch up compared with copper and aluminum. The zinc price is currently in the process of following the sector to catch up on the macro - attribute, and it is necessary to observe the trend of leading varieties in the sector and the situation of the Shanghai - London ratio [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price has fallen, and relevant information on inventory, basis, and other aspects is provided [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent inventory of lead concentrate has decreased, and the operating rates of primary and recycled lead have increased. The lead supply has increased marginally, and the inventory has accumulated. The lead price is approaching the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro - funds and industrial - seat funds has increased. It is necessary to observe the trend of leading varieties in the sector and the situation of the Shanghai - London ratio [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price has significantly corrected, and the spot premium and cost have changed [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel remains high, but macro - level factors such as loose domestic liquidity and the Indonesian government's plan to reduce RKAB quotas support the price. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 19,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [22]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price has significantly corrected, the supply situation has changed, and the inventory has increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market has weak demand, but the downstream inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference operating range of 360,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract and 45,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for overseas LME tin [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated greatly, and relevant price and inventory information is provided [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment of lithium carbonate has fluctuated significantly, and the price has risen and then fallen. The fundamental improvement expectation has been fully traded, and there is still a certain emotional premium. The price has large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference operating range of the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 139,500 - 149,000 yuan/ton [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price has fallen, the trading volume has decreased, and relevant information on basis, inventory, and ore price is provided [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea has gradually recovered, and the AXIS mine has resumed production, so the ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see, and it is not cost - effective to go long. It is advisable to wait for an opportunity to short the near - term contract on rallies. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2650 - 2800 yuan/ton [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel price has fallen, the trading volume has decreased, and relevant information on spot price, raw material price, and inventory is provided [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the stainless - steel market has shown a situation of increasing volume and price. The supply is restricted by raw materials, and the demand is affected by price. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 13900 - 14650 yuan/ton for the main contract [30]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy has continued to fall, the trading volume has decreased, and relevant information on inventory and price difference is provided [31][32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply is disturbed. The demand is relatively average, so the price is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [33]. 3.5 Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have changed, and relevant information on registered warehouse receipts, trading volume, and spot price is provided [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The output of hot - rolled coils has slightly increased, and the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is still at a high level. The apparent demand of rebar has increased significantly, and the output is at a medium level. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking progress of hot - rolled coils and the impact of "dual - carbon" policies [36]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore price has decreased slightly, and relevant information on inventory, basis, and trading volume is provided [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron - ore shipment has decreased, the near - end arrival volume has increased, the demand for iron ore has decreased slightly, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' inventory has increased. The iron - ore price is supported but may oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking and iron - making production rhythm [39]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have fallen, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and technical form is provided [40][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of coking coal and coke have oscillated and fallen, mainly due to the decline of market sentiment. In the future, the overall market sentiment is expected to be bullish, but there may be short - term fluctuations. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively balanced, but the steel mills' restocking willingness is not strong. The prices are expected to be oscillating and strong, but attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations [42][43]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the trading volume has changed. The soda - ash price has decreased slightly, the inventory has slightly increased, and the trading volume has changed [44][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market has a loose supply - demand balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely, with the reference range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton for the main contract. The soda - ash market has a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted, with the reference price range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton for the main contract [45][47]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have fallen, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and technical form is provided [49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron have fallen due to the decline of market sentiment. The supply and demand of manganese - silicon are not ideal, and the supply and demand of silicon - iron are relatively balanced. The future market is affected by market sentiment and cost factors, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [50][51]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon price has fallen, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and trading volume is provided. The polysilicon price has increased, and relevant information on spot price, basis, and trading volume is provided [52][55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial - silicon price is expected to be weakly oscillating due to the decrease in supply and demand. The polysilicon market has a situation of upstream game and downstream policy - driven expectation, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to spot trading and exchange risk - control measures [54][56]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Products Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price has oscillated and weakened, and there are different views on the rise and fall of the price. The tire factory's operating rate has increased, and the inventory has changed [58][59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rubber price is seasonally weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended if the RU2605 contract breaks below 16,000. It is recommended to partially build a position in the strategy of buying the NR main contract and short - selling the RU2609 contract

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: The stock index is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended for selling on rallies [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper should be held long cautiously at low levels with rolling operations; aluminum requires more observation; nickel suggests waiting or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is expected to be strong; lithium carbonate will trade in a range [1][11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC adopts a low - buying strategy; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile [1][17][19]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range; apples are expected to be slightly strong; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26][28]. - **Agricultural and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, short - term contracts should sell on rallies and long - term contracts are cautiously bullish; for eggs, the 02 contract can be hedged on rallies; for corn, short - term chasing highs should be cautious, and long - term there is support at the bottom; for soybean meal, near - term contracts are bullish and far - term contracts are bearish; for oils, soybean and palm oil are stronger than rapeseed oil, and palm oil can be bought [1][29][38]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy impacts, and international market trends. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product, and gives corresponding investment strategies such as buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and temporary observation [1][5][8]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The US economic data has mixed impacts, and China's foreign trade is improving, but the increase in margin ratio may put pressure on the stock index. It is bullish in the medium to long term, and investors can buy on dips [5]. - **Government Bonds**: Asset fluctuations are large, and there are short - term trading opportunities. The mid - term situation is unclear. The market should focus on the central bank's press conference on monetary policy, and government bonds are expected to trade in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: The transportation and procurement are weak, and the port inventory is increasing. It is recommended for short - term trading [7][8]. - **Rebar**: The price is in the middle range. The supply - demand pattern is seasonally weak, and there are expectations of weakening exports. It is suitable for range trading, and attention should be paid to cash - futures arbitrage opportunities [8]. - **Glass**: The market is affected by short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory transfers. The fundamental pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: There is a game between macro - bullishness and weak fundamentals. The short - term upward momentum is exhausted, but there is a long - term shortage expectation. It is recommended to hold long cautiously at low levels with rolling operations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina is in a weak situation, and the policy is uncertain. The aluminum price is under fundamental pressure, and it is recommended to observe more [12]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore quota is cut, but the overall supply is still in excess. It is recommended to wait or sell on rallies [13][14]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and it is suitable for range trading [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the weak US economic data and the expectation of interest rate cuts, the prices are expected to be strong. Silver is recommended to hold long, and gold is for range trading [15][16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to trade in a range [16][17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, but the valuation is low. There are potential policy and cost - side impacts. It is recommended to buy at low levels [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand is weak, and the supply is under pressure. There is short - term delivery pressure, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [19]. - **Styrene**: The price has rebounded, but the valuation is high. It is suitable for range trading, and attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [19]. - **Rubber**: The upstream cost is rising, but the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and it is for range trading [20][21]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The inventory is at a low level, and the price is expected to trade in a range [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is mixed. The price is expected to trade in a range, with some regions being strong [23][24]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply is loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [24]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to observe temporarily [26]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand pattern is improving. The price is in a high - level adjustment, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26]. - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly strong [28]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28]. Agricultural and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply - demand may turn loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The long - term price increase is limited, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the short - term and be cautiously bullish in the long - term [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price may rise seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. The long - term supply pressure still exists, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [31][33]. - **Corn**: The short - term price has selling pressure, and the long - term demand is gradually releasing. It is recommended to be cautious in chasing highs and hedge on rallies [34][36]. - **Soybean Meal**: The near - term contract is bullish, and the far - term contract is bearish. It is recommended to buy on dips in the near - term and sell on rallies in the far - term [37][38]. - **Oils**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Palm oil and soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to buy palm oil and pay attention to the China - Canada negotiation results [38][44].

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is expected to be moderately bullish [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously; aluminum advises increased observation; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish [1][17][23] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be moderately bullish; apples are expected to be moderately bullish; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs suggest short - term shorting on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness for far - term contracts; eggs suggest hedging on rallies for 02 contracts; corn suggests cautious chasing of highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; soybean meal suggests bullishness on dips for near - term contracts and bearishness for far - term contracts; oils suggest limited rebound and cautious chasing of highs [1][29][31] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products in different sectors. It analyzes the supply and demand, cost, policy and other factors of each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on the analysis results. The market trends of different products are affected by multiple factors, including macro - economic policies, industry supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events [5][10][29] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The market mainline rotates rapidly, and the index may trade sideways. The follow - up trend depends on trading volume. If the volume remains high, the index may continue to rise; otherwise, it may face short - term correction risks [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous driving factors are fading, institutions are more cautious at the end of the year, and the market lacks significant driving factors. The market may continue to trade sideways before the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The core contradiction lies in the game between strong bearish reality and weak marginal support. Short - term trading should be based on range - right - side trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price oscillates. In terms of valuation, it is neutral; in terms of driving factors, there is no incremental policy in the short term, and the steel export is expected to weaken. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it is suitable for range trading [7] - **Glass**: At the end of the month, multiple production lines are expected to shut down, and the supply is expected to decrease, which may push up the price. Although the medium - long - term supply - demand is deteriorating, there are short - term speculation opportunities around New Year's Day. The price is expected to be moderately bullish [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price has reached a high level, but the current price is over - inflated, and the upward momentum is limited. It is expected to trade in a wide range at a high level. Pay attention to changes in spot discounts and inventory accumulation speed [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina is a reality, but policy expectations are uncertain. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large in January. Although the short - term price may be bullish, the upside space should be viewed cautiously [12] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13][14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to continue to trade in a moderately bullish range. Pay attention to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [15] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are supported by liquidity and are expected to trade in a range. The central price in the medium term has moved up. It is recommended to hold long positions for silver and trade in a range for gold, and be cautious about chasing highs [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to be supplemented by South American imports, and the demand is strong but the downstream production may decline. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to continue to trade at a low level. Pay attention to macro data, policies, exports, inventory and upstream start - up rates [17][19] - **Caustic Soda**: The "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" situation suppresses the price. The near - term contract may reduce inventory by lowering prices before the Spring Festival, and the far - term contract's upward trend needs to be verified by supply contraction [19] - **Styrene**: The short - term rebound is due to factors such as rising oil prices, but the supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the cost support is weak. It is expected to trade in a range in the short term, and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes in the medium - long term [20][21] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, the cost support may weaken, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to continue to trade sideways [21] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the compound fertilizer demand is supporting. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in a range [22] - **Methanol**: The supply in the mainland is recovering, the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. Both the mainland and ports are accumulating inventory [23] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is insufficient. The upward space is limited. It is expected to be weakly bullish, and pay attention to the support levels [23][24] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong after supply contraction. It is recommended to wait and see [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are adjusted downward in the 2025/26 season, and the ending inventory increases slightly. The price is expected to be moderately bullish due to stable consumption and policy expectations [26] - **Apples**: The trading of late - Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish [28] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [29] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term price rebounds due to supply - demand mismatch, but the supply increase and inventory accumulation suppress the upward space. The far - term price is cautiously bullish due to capacity reduction, but the industry cost is decreasing [29][31] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The medium - term supply pressure may be alleviated by large - scale culling, and the long - term supply pressure still exists [31][32] - **Corn**: The short - term price has limited upward momentum, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies. The medium - long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which limits the upward space [32][33] - **Soybean Meal**: It is recommended to trade in a range, be bullish on dips for near - term contracts and bearish for far - term contracts [34][35] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and gradually close long positions. The medium - long - term fundamentals have certain positive factors [35][41]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are advised for range trading; glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum is for long - position reduction; nickel is for waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend [1][11][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; soda ash 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch [1][20][23][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in a low - level sideways trend; apples are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend; red dates are expected to be in a slightly weak sideways trend [1][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are under pressure for rebound; eggs have limited upside potential; corn is in a bottom - building sideways trend; soybean meal is in a range - bound trend; oils and fats are in a weak adjustment [1][40][43][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on their fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, and supply - demand relationships. It analyzes factors such as economic data, policy expectations, production, consumption, and inventory levels to predict price trends and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7] Summary by Directory Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: They are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and are long - term bullish. With market hotspots rotating quickly and no clear main line, factors like US employment data and policy expectations affect the market. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. After previous trading operations, the most fluent phase of yield decline has ended, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. Short - term trading is influenced by news, economic data, and policy expectations, while long - term trading awaits signals from the Central Economic Work Conference [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is in a sideways trend. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory, with low purchasing willingness from various parties [7][8] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. The futures price has fallen below certain cost levels, and in the short - term, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, with steel prices likely to be in a low - level sideways trend [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options. The main contract's position has reached a new high, and the market is weak due to factors such as unchanged supply, slowdown in restocking, and weakening demand. There is a risk of further demand decline and delivery pressure in the near - term [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level sideways trend. Market sentiment has turned cautious, and factors such as US government policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. Although there is long - term potential, short - term risks exist, and range trading or waiting and watching is advised [11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade sideways. Alumina production has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply and demand are balanced. With the approach of the off - season and other factors, the price is likely to be range - bound [12] - **Nickel**: It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies. Indonesia's policy adjustment may affect supply, and there is an overall surplus in the nickel market, with different trends in various nickel products [16] - **Tin**: It is for cautious range trading. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak, but low overseas inventory provides some support [17] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. The US government's policy and Fed's interest - rate expectations affect the prices, and there is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [19] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways trend. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. Attention should be paid to the progress of mine certificates in Yichun and downstream production schedules [20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports are the main factors, and attention should be paid to cost, policy, and inventory changes [20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. High inventory in the alumina industry exerts pressure on the caustic soda spot market, and attention should be paid to the verification of production - reduction expectations [23] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade sideways. Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to a balanced market, and attention should be paid to factors such as oil prices and production schedules [24][25] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade sideways, with support at the 15000 level. Cost support and inventory pressure coexist, and the tire industry's production capacity utilization rate has some fluctuations [26] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade sideways. High supply, increasing demand in some sectors, and high inventory limit the upward potential of prices [28] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade sideways. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - level changes and production schedules [29] - **Polyolefins**: PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. Cost compression, increasing supply, and weakening demand lead to a potential expansion of the supply - demand gap [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: 01 contract bears are advised to exit and wait and watch. Supply is expected to contract, and cost support is strong, with limited downward space for the price [34][35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to trade sideways. Global supply - demand data is relatively loose, and downstream consumption is weak [35] - **PTA**: It is in a low - level sideways trend. Supply is accumulating, demand is weak, and the price is affected by factors such as oil prices and cost [35][37] - **Apples**: They are expected to be in a slightly strong sideways trend. With a decline in both production and quality, prices are likely to remain strong [37] - **Red Dates**: They are expected to trade sideways with a weakening trend. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and prices are slightly loosening [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are under pressure for rebound. Short - term price fluctuations are affected by factors such as secondary fattening and demand, and long - term supply remains high [40] - **Eggs**: They have limited upside potential. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is stable. In the long - term, supply pressure may gradually ease [43] - **Corn**: It is in a bottom - building sideways trend. Short - term price is affected by new - grain listing, and long - term supply - demand is relatively balanced with some pressure on the upside [44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a range - bound trend. US soybean supply - demand and domestic buying and selling affect the price, and range trading or basis pricing is recommended [45] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a weak adjustment. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and short - term adjustment risks exist, with long - term potential for wide - range fluctuations [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index futures (medium to long - term) [1][4] - **Bearish**: Glass (sell call options),红枣 (oscillate weakly),生猪 (rebound under pressure),鸡蛋 (rise limited),玉米 (weakly oscillate),油脂 (rebound limited) [1][7][36][38][40][42][45] - **Neutral**: Treasury bonds,焦煤,螺纹钢,铜,铝,镍,锡,黄金,白银,PVC,烧碱,苯乙烯,橡胶,尿素,甲醇,聚烯烃,棉花 and棉纱,PTA,苹果 [1][4][6][9][10][15][16][17][18][26][34] Core Views - The market shows diversified trends across different sectors. In the macro - financial area, index futures are expected to rise in the long - run but may oscillate in the short - term, while treasury bonds will likely move in a range. In the black building materials sector, products like coking coal and rebar are in a state of oscillation. The non - ferrous metals market is generally neutral with different metals having their own influencing factors. The energy and chemical industry is mostly in a state of oscillation or weak oscillation. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock sectors also present various trends based on supply - demand and seasonal factors [1][4][6][9][18][34][38] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Index Futures**: Medium to long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips. The market is currently oscillating with rapid rotation of hotspots and an unclear main line. The general public budget revenue and expenditure data have certain impacts on the market [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate. The third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a limited possibility of using total - volume monetary policy tools this year, and the market is in a wait - and - see and oscillating pattern [4][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Suggested for range trading. The coal market is experiencing price cuts, weak demand, and high inventory [6] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate. The price is at a low level with low static valuation, and the short - term steel price will mainly oscillate at a low level due to factors such as weakening demand and potential steel mill production cuts [6][7] - **Glass**: Recommended to sell call options. The market is weak with high inventory and weakening demand, and the technical indicators show a bearish trend [7] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at a high level. The market is influenced by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and copper supply - demand fundamentals. It is recommended to observe or conduct light - position range trading [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The market is neutral and oscillating at a high level. The price is affected by factors such as bauxite prices, alumina production capacity, and downstream demand. It is recommended to strengthen observation [9][10][11] - **Nickel**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty to the supply, and it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The market is neutral and oscillating. The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to oscillate. The prices are affected by factors such as US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data. It is recommended for cautious range trading [16][17] Energy and Chemical - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies [18][19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is influenced by factors such as alumina production and inventory, and chlorine price [20][21] - **Styrene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, pure benzene supply, and macro - data [21][22][23] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is related to tire production. It is recommended to observe the 15000 support level [23][24][25] - **Urea**: Expected to oscillate. The market is affected by factors such as supply, cost, and demand [26][27] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate. The market is influenced by factors such as supply, demand, and coal prices [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for 01 - contract short - position holders to exit and observe. The supply is expected to shrink, and the cost support is strong [30][31][33] Cotton - spinning - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to oscillate. The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, and the downstream consumption is weak [34] - **PTA**: Expected to oscillate at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand, and inventory [34][35] - **Apples**: Expected to oscillate strongly. The production and quality of apples have declined, and the price is expected to remain strong [35] - **Jujubes**: Expected to oscillate weakly. The acquisition progress is accelerating, and the price is slightly loosening [36] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The price is under pressure. The short - term price is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and production capacity reduction [38][39] - **Eggs**: The price increase is limited. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term supply pressure needs time to ease [40][41] - **Corn**: Expected to build a bottom through oscillation. The short - term price is supported by the slowdown of new - grain listing, and the medium - to long - term price is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and cost [42][43] - **Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic and international soybean markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand, and price differentials [44][45] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. The short - term price is in a low - level oscillation, and the long - term price is affected by factors such as policies and weather [45][47][49][50][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips [1][5][6] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5][6] - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Sell call options [1][9][10] - Copper: Exit long positions at high levels or range - bound short - term trading [1][11] - Aluminum: Suggest to buy on dips [1] - Nickel: Suggest to wait and see or short on rallies [1][17] - Tin: Range trading [1][18][19] - Gold: Range trading [1][19][20] - Silver: Range trading [1][19] - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 4700 resistance for 01 contract [22][23] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 2400 resistance for 01 contract [24][25] - Soda ash: Bearish strategy for 01 contract [1][32][34] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on 6500 resistance [25][26] - Rubber: Range - bound, focus on 15000 support [27][28] - Urea: Range - bound [29][30] - Methanol: Range - bound [31] - Polyolefins: PE to range - bound, focus on 6800 support; PP to trade weakly, focus on 6500 support [32][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [37] - PTA: Low - level range - bound [37][38] - Apples: Range - bound with a strong bias [38] - Red dates: Range - bound with a downward trend [38] - Live pigs: Rebound under pressure [1][40][41] - Eggs: Limited upside [42][43] - Corn: Bottom - building in a range [44][46] - Soybean meal: Range - bound [47] - Oils and fats: Bottom - building and rebounding [48][53] Core Views - The global risk appetite and domestic favorable policies fail to boost the domestic market sentiment, and the index futures may trade in a range; the bond market lacks a clear core logic, and treasury bonds may also trade in a range [6] - The coal market shows a pattern of tight supply and rising prices, and the prices of coking coal and rebar may be range - bound; the supply of glass is high and demand is weak, and it is recommended to sell call options [8][9][10] - Copper prices are affected by macro and fundamental factors and are expected to trade at high levels in a range; aluminum prices are affected by supply, demand and inventory, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [11][12] - Nickel supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; tin supply is expected to improve, and it is recommended to trade in a range [17][18][19] - Gold and silver prices are affected by the US economic situation and Fed policies, and are expected to trade in a range [19][20] - PVC, caustic soda, styrene, etc. are affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand and macro policies, and are expected to trade weakly in a range; rubber is expected to trade in a range [23][25][28] - Urea and methanol are affected by supply, demand and cost, and are expected to trade in a range; polyolefins are affected by cost, supply and demand, and are expected to trade weakly [29][31][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade in a range; PTA is expected to trade at a low level in a range; apples are expected to trade strongly in a range; red dates are expected to trade downward in a range [37][38] - Live pig prices are affected by supply and demand in different periods, and it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage; egg prices are affected by supply and demand, and it is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract [40][42][43] - Corn prices are affected by new grain listing and demand, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage; soybean meal prices are affected by US soybean supply and demand, and are expected to trade in a range [44][46][47] - Oils and fats prices are affected by palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil supply and demand, and are expected to bottom - build and rebound, and it is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to arbitrage [48][53][54] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Index futures: Affected by factors such as the decline in US private - sector employment and domestic market sentiment, it is expected to trade in a range [6] - Treasury bonds: Due to the unclear core logic of the bond market and the need to focus on the entry of allocation funds and the actions of the central bank, it is expected to trade in a range [6] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market has tight supply and rising prices, and it is expected to trade in a range [8] - Rebar: With narrow - range price fluctuations and weakening supply - demand margins, it is expected to trade in a range [8] - Glass: High supply, weak demand, and low - season downstream replenishment, it is recommended to sell call options [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by macro and fundamental factors, it is expected to trade at high levels in a range [11] - Aluminum: Affected by supply, demand and inventory, it is recommended to strengthen observation [12] - Nickel: Medium - long - term supply is expected to be abundant, it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17] - Tin: Supply is expected to improve, it is recommended to trade in a range [18][19] - Gold and Silver: Affected by the US economic situation and Fed policies, they are expected to trade in a range [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand and macro policies, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [23] - Caustic soda: Affected by alumina production and demand, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [25] - Soda ash: Supply is in excess, it is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy for the 01 contract [35][36] - Styrene: Affected by cost and supply - demand, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [26] - Rubber: Affected by supply and demand and inventory, it is expected to trade in a range [28] - Urea: Affected by supply, demand and cost, it is expected to trade in a range [29][30] - Methanol: Affected by supply, demand and cost, it is expected to trade in a range [31] - Polyolefins: Affected by cost, supply and demand, PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [32][33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Affected by global supply - demand and trade negotiations, it is expected to trade in a range [37] - PTA: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade at a low level in a range [37][38] - Apples: Affected by production and sales, it is expected to trade strongly in a range [38] - Red dates: Affected by supply and demand, it is expected to trade downward in a range [38] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: Affected by supply and demand in different periods, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to arbitrage [40][41] - Eggs: Affected by supply and demand, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract [42][43] - Corn: Affected by new grain listing and demand, it is recommended to hedge on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage [44][46] - Soybean meal: Affected by US soybean supply and demand, it is expected to trade in a range [47] - Oils and fats: Affected by palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil supply and demand, it is expected to bottom - build and rebound, and it is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to arbitrage [48][53][54]