Group 1 - The ETF market opened with mixed performance, with the Huabao Sci-Tech AI ETF (589520) leading the gains at 1.92% [1] - The Sci-Tech Board AI ETF (588930) increased by 1.72%, while the Guotai Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) rose by 1.54% [1] - The Energy and Chemical ETF (159981) experienced the largest decline at 3.63%, followed by the Coal ETF (515220) down 2.24%, and the Commodity ETF (510170) falling by 1.57% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including supply - demand analysis, price trends, and trading strategies for each product [2]. - For most products, the short - term trends are characterized by oscillations, with some showing short - term strength or weakness, and some having long - term pressure or potential for improvement. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Aromatics and Polyester - related Products PX - **Market Overview**: A 350,000 - ton PX device in Japan has unexpectedly stopped for maintenance, and a domestic supplier's July PX contract advance payment is set at 7,250 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply continues to shrink, and the unilateral price is expected to be strong, with the spread still favoring positive spreads. The Asian operating rate will further decline, while PTA device supply will increase slightly next week [8]. PTA - **Market Overview**: A 200,000 - ton IPA device in East China has restarted [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost has support, but the spread is under pressure. The unilateral price oscillates slightly stronger. The supply - demand pattern will shift from rapid destocking to a more balanced state, and it is recommended to reverse the spread at high levels [8][9]. MEG - **Market Overview**: The average spot price on June 27 was 4,346 yuan/ton, and the average price of futures for late July was 4,347 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The unilateral price oscillates and stabilizes. After the maintenance of multiple devices, the supply has decreased, but imports are expected to increase. With polyester device production cuts in July, the previous sharp decline has occurred. Considering cost support, further short - selling is not recommended [9]. 2. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Overview**: As of June 25, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 0.04 million tons compared to the previous period, and the butadiene inventory in East China ports slightly decreased [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term trend is oscillatory. The fundamental situation of the butadiene rubber industry chain is currently neutral to weak, and short - term oscillations are expected without an obvious trend [12]. 3. Asphalt - **Market Overview**: As of June 26, domestic asphalt factory and social inventories increased, and the weekly output increased by 2.4% week - on - week and 21.5% year - on - year [13][24]. - **Market Analysis**: It shows a weak oscillation. The long - spread cracking trading strategy is considered to take profit. The cost side has a significant impact on prices, and industry players are cautious in purchasing [13][24]. 4. LLDPE - **Market Overview**: The market price oscillates weakly, with a price range of 20 - 50 yuan/ton. End - of - month petrochemical sales suspension and settlement have led to stable ex - factory prices [25]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, it mainly oscillates. The premium caused by polyethylene import risks has been reversed. Although social sample warehouse inventories are decreasing, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [26]. 5. PP - **Market Overview**: The domestic PP market fluctuates within a narrow range. The impact of futures oscillations on spot trading is limited, and downstream factories are cautious in purchasing [29][30]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term trend is oscillatory with light trading volume, and the trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [30]. 6. Caustic Soda - **Market Overview**: The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong remains stable, and some enterprises with poor order - signing and rising inventories have lowered prices [32]. - **Market Analysis**: It rebounds in the short term but faces pressure in the long run. The decline in the spot price is due to the price cut by Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the rebound in coal prices and the expected increase in electricity prices in summer have led to a certain repair of the long - term valuation [33]. 7. Glass - **Market Overview**: The price of domestic float glass raw sheets is mainly stable, with slight price adjustments in some areas [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term trend is stable, and there is no obvious change in demand [37]. 8. Methanol - **Market Overview**: Last week, methanol port inventories increased significantly, with different inventory trends in various regions. The hype about the Iranian issue has ended, and some MTO factories have unexpectedly stopped production [41]. - **Market Analysis**: It oscillates in the short term. The supply - demand pattern will shift to small - scale inventory accumulation, profit compression, and seasonal maintenance production cuts. The absolute price oscillates mainly [41]. 9. Urea - **Market Overview**: Last week, export news led to increased market speculation, but the overall trading volume returned to light on Friday - Sunday. As of June 25, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 3.53% week - on - week [44]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the spot price oscillates under pressure, and the futures oscillate. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [44][46]. 10. Styrene - **Market Overview**: In 2025, the supply pressure of pure benzene is high, and the supply - demand pattern of styrene will reverse in the second half of the year, with increasing supply and weakening demand [48][49]. - **Market Analysis**: It oscillates in the short term. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. The high - profit state of styrene is difficult to sustain in Q3, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of basis decline and profit compression [47][49][50]. 11. Soda Ash - **Market Overview**: The domestic soda ash market oscillates weakly, with general trading atmosphere and moderate restocking at low prices. The output of Boyuan Yingen is gradually increasing [53]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term market is expected to adjust weakly, with flexible trading [53]. 12. LPG - **Market Overview**: Saudi Aramco's July CP prices for propane and butane have decreased compared to the previous month. There are many PDH device maintenance plans in China [63][64]. - **Market Analysis**: It oscillates in the short term [55]. 13. PVC - **Market Overview**: The PVC spot market oscillates and rises, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the trading volume remains light [67][68]. - **Market Analysis**: It is short - term strong but has limited upside space. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market will continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [67][68]. 14. Fuel Oil - **Market Overview**: The night - session of fuel oil remains weak, and the short - term volatility decreases. The low - sulfur fuel oil shows an oscillatory adjustment trend, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level [71]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term trends of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are mainly oscillatory [71]. 15. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Overview**: The EC futures show different price changes, and the SCFIS and SCFI for European and US - West routes have different weekly and bi - weekly increases [73]. - **Market Analysis**: It oscillates in the short term [73].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Friday, the polyolefin market showed weak performance. The consumption of polyolefins has temporarily peaked and declined. However, due to cost - side fluctuations, polyolefins at a low - valuation state resist downward movement. After the Sino - US meeting over the weekend, attention should be paid to subsequent energy - chemical and tariff policies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6911, 7230, and 6976 respectively, with price drops of - 37, - 60, and - 40, and percentage drops of - 0.53%, - 0.82%, and - 0.57%. The trading volumes were 19578, 525, and 263134, and the open interests were 69739, 4448, and 544266, with increases of 2720, - 465, and 8999 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 319, 254, and 65, compared to previous values of - 342, 274, and 68 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6886, 7076, and 6967 respectively, with price drops of - 18, - 6, and - 18, and percentage drops of - 0.26%, - 0.08%, and - 0.26%. The trading volumes were 14072, 777, and 254390, and the open interests were 38629, 4422, and 476705, with increases of 2414, - 398, and 10804 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 190, 109, and 81, compared to previous values of - 178, 97, and 81 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2231 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2221 yuan/ton, 6530 yuan/ton, 638 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6920 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7900 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7450 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7100 - 7300 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton, and 7150 - 7350 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Friday (May 9), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for June 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.02 per barrel, up $1.11 or 1.85% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.89 - $61.45. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for July 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.91 per barrel, up $1.07 or 1.70% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.84 - $64.24 [2].