研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/1/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7860 | -60 | -0.76% | 31,429 | -21.48% | 34,965 | -4.45% | | PK610 | 8262 | 2 | 0.02% | 201 | -53.69% | 2,459 | 1.61% | | PK601 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 0 | -100.00% | 1,052 | -17.62% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 ...

Core Insights - The market price of peanuts (oil peanuts) for processing in late July 2025 is reported at 7566.7 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.1% while remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - In the context of the last five years, the price reached its peak in late July 2023 at 9900 yuan per ton [1] Group 1 - The price of peanuts in July 2025 is 7566.7 yuan per ton, down 10.1% year-on-year [1] - The month-on-month price remains unchanged [1] - The highest recorded price in the last five years was 9900 yuan per ton in July 2023 [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the research center's agricultural products team on July 7, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2260, the price in Jinzhou remained at 2330, the price in Weifang decreased by 8 to 2450, and the price in Shekou remained at 2460. The basis increased by 10 to -23, the trade profit remained at 0, and the import profit decreased by 8 to 423. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2850 and 2950 respectively, the basis increased by 14 to 128, and the processing profit remained at -66 [2] Market Analysis - Recently, the reserve auction of imported corn has slightly increased market supply, relieving the tense market sentiment. In the short term, the auction aims to ease market tension rather than suppress prices, and the low old - crop inventory still supports corn prices. In the long term, the widening import profit may lead to increased imports and weaker far - month prices. For starch, some enterprises raised prices due to production losses this week. In the short term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high inventory limits the rebound. In the long term, the off - season consumption restricts price increases, and after a small profit repair, short the far - month contracts [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained stable, the Liuzhou basis decreased by 2 to 381, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 96 to 23424 [4] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to drought and irregular rainfall in Brazil's 25/26 sugar season from April to May, the yield per unit and sugar content per ton of sugarcane decreased. However, the high sugar - making ratio and production increase expectations led to a decline in the 07 - contract raw sugar price, which rebounded after Pakistan's import announcement. The domestic market follows the international trend [4] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 to 14975, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 77 to 10329, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 6 to -1333 [5] Market Analysis - The rapid decline in cotton inventory has driven up prices recently, but there is resistance from hedging orders. The weak downstream demand limits the acceptance of high prices. If demand worsens or there are macro - risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will remain volatile [5] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained stable, the price in Hubei increased by 0.02 to 2.91, the basis decreased by 86 to -54, the price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10 to 3.25, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.29 to 20.58 [11] Market Analysis - Since late April, the increasing breeding losses have made farmers more willing to cull chickens. The spot price rebounded slightly in mid - June due to increased culling and cold - storage egg demand, but then fell again due to a supply - chain disruption. The culling intensity this year is expected to be lower than in previous years, and the high inventory may limit the seasonal price rebound [11] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8500. The national inventory increased by 24, Shandong inventory increased by 27, and Shandong inventory increased by 25 [13][14] Market Analysis - In the new season, apple bagging has ended in various regions. There is a slight production decline expected nationwide, with a 20% decline expected in Shandong. The 2024/25 apple consumption is in the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years, with a slight slowdown in de - stocking recently. The impact of the expected production decline needs further observation [14] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, and Jiangsu Nantong changed slightly, and the basis increased by 15 to 825 [14] Market Analysis - The long - term capacity reduction is limited, and the near - term de - stocking still has room. The futures market is trading on seasonal rebound expectations, but it needs spot verification. The weekend spot price decline, increased slaughter, and high - temperature suppression of consumption have weakened market sentiment. The de - stocking path is crucial for the far - month price trend [14]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, corn prices will be supported to remain strong due to enterprises' strong demand, but in the long - term, there is a risk of price decline due to increased imports. For starch, short - term raw material prices support it, but long - term consumption is weak, and it's advisable to short far - month contracts after a small profit repair [3]. - International factors like Brazil's sugar production situation affect the sugar market, and the domestic market follows the international trend [4]. - Cotton prices are rising due to inventory decline, but there is resistance from hedging and weak downstream demand. The price may fall if demand worsens or there are macro risks, otherwise, it will oscillate [6]. - Egg prices may have limited seasonal rebounds due to a relatively high inventory base, despite increased culling earlier [10]. - Apple prices are affected by a potential small - scale production reduction in the new season and low inventory, but consumption is in the off - season and is being squeezed by seasonal fruits [14]. - Short - term pig prices are strong, but consumer acceptance in the off - season is limited. Futures are trading on the expected seasonal rebound, and the key is the de - stocking path [14]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn and Starch - **Price Data**: From June 27 to July 3, the price in Changchun remained at 2260, and in Jinzhou at 2330. The price in Weifang decreased by 20, and the import profit decreased by 39. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2850 and 2950 respectively [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are supported by strong demand from enterprises, while long - term there is a risk of price decline due to increased imports. Starch prices are supported by raw material prices in the short - term but are restricted by high inventory and weak consumption in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From June 27 to July 3, the spot prices in Liuzhou and Nanning remained stable, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil decreased by 238, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 55 [4]. - **Analysis**: International factors such as Brazil's sugar production situation affect the sugar market, and the domestic market follows the international trend [4]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From June 27 to July 3, the price of 3128 cotton increased from 14935 to 14980, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 53, and the import profit increased by 4 [6]. - **Analysis**: Cotton prices are rising due to inventory decline, but there is resistance from hedging and weak downstream demand. The price may fall if demand worsens or there are macro risks, otherwise, it will oscillate [6]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From June 27 to July 3, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable, the basis decreased by 62, the price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.25 [10]. - **Analysis**: Egg prices may have limited seasonal rebounds due to a relatively high inventory base, despite increased culling earlier [10]. Apples - **Price Data**: From June 27 to July 3, the spot price in Shandong remained at 8500, the national inventory decreased by 22, the inventory in Shandong decreased by 19, and the inventory in Shaanxi decreased by 20 [13][14]. - **Analysis**: Apple prices are affected by a potential small - scale production reduction in the new season and low inventory, but consumption is in the off - season and is being squeezed by seasonal fruits [14]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From June 27 to July 3, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, and Jiangsu Nantong increased, and the basis increased by 70 [14]. - **Analysis**: Short - term pig prices are strong, but consumer acceptance in the off - season is limited. Futures are trading on the expected seasonal rebound, and the key is the de - stocking path [14].

Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report - Report Date: June 30, 2025 - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including corn, starch, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and pigs, providing short - and long - term price trend forecasts and risk warnings for each product [3][4][5][9][13] 3. Summary by Product Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2260 (except for June 27 with no data), and the price in Weifang increased by 10. The corn basis decreased by 6, and the starch basis decreased by 15 [2] - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the strong performance of corn spot prices will continue to support the price, but in the long term, there is a risk of price decline due to increased imports. For starch, the strong raw material price will support the product price in the short term, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. In the long term, the off - season consumption restricts price increase, and it is advisable to short the far - month contract after a small profit repair [3] Sugar - **Price Data**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the spot price in Liuzhou and Nanning increased by 10, the basis increased by 8, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 310 [4] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, due to the impact of the 2024 drought, the first month of Brazil's 25/26 sugar - making season had a decline in yield and sugar output per ton of sugarcane. However, the high sugar - making ratio in May led to market expectations of increased production, putting pressure on raw sugar prices. Brazil's decision to increase the ethanol blending ratio may increase ethanol demand. Domestically, the market follows the international trend [4] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 60, the import profit decreased by 32, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 53 [4][15] - **Market Analysis**: The rapid decline in cotton inventory drives up the price in the short term, but there is resistance from hedging orders. The downstream market has weak demand, and if demand deteriorates or there are macro - risks, the price may fall; otherwise, it will fluctuate at the current level [5] Eggs - **Price Data**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the prices in major production areas remained stable, and the basis increased by 21 [9] - **Market Analysis**: Since late April, farmers' willingness to cull chickens has increased due to losses. The spot price rebounded slightly in mid - June, and farmers' culling sentiment slowed down. The high inventory may limit the height of the seasonal price rebound [9] Apples - **Price Data**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8500, and the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month bases changed by 30, 13, and 29 respectively [12][13] - **Market Analysis**: In the new production season, there is an expectation of a slight reduction in production nationwide. The consumption is in the off - season, the inventory is at a five - year low, and the sales in major production areas have slowed down. The entry of seasonal fruits may affect the market share of apples [13] Pigs - **Price Data**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the prices in major production areas increased, and the basis increased by 135 [13] - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the spot price is strong due to supply contraction and other factors, but the downstream acceptance of price increases is limited in the off - season. In the medium term, price rebounds are not conducive to inventory reduction. The futures market has priced in the seasonal rebound expectation, and the key is the inventory reduction path [13]