| 玉米/淀粉 | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/06/30 2260 | 2330 | 2490 | 2460 | -48 | 0 | 476 | 2850 | 2950 | 112 | -63 | | 2025/07/01 2260 | 2330 | 2490 | 2460 | -53 | 0 | 462 | 2850 | 2950 | 102 | -63 | | 2025/07/02 2260 | 2330 | 2478 | 2460 | -33 | 0 | 470 | 2850 | 2950 | 114 | -66 | | 2025/07/03 2260 | 2330 | 2458 | 2460 | -33 | 0 | 431 | 2850 | 2950 | 114 | -66 | | 2025/07 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For domestic soybeans, the supply is tightening, and traders are reluctant to sell at lower prices, leading to a slight increase in the price of soybeans outside the pass. However, the slow downstream digestion makes it difficult for prices to rise. In the pass, the soybean market is in the off - season, and the price remains stable before the new grain is on the market [2][3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazil's soybean exports in June 2025 are expected to increase. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is lower than previous forecasts and last year, and the inventory on June 1 is higher than expected. In the short term, domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to accumulate, and the pressure is becoming more prominent [2][3]. - For soybean meal, the supply pattern of domestic oil mills' soybean meal remains loose, and the downstream feed enterprises' subsequent replenishment enthusiasm is decreasing, resulting in prominent supply - demand pressure [3]. - For soybean oil, the supply is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is weak, but the macro - environment is stable and warm, and the increasing demand for biodiesel boosts its price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of futures for soybeans No.1, No.2, soybean meal, and soybean oil all decreased, except for soybean meal which remained unchanged. The settlement prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all increased [2]. - **Positions**: The positions of the main contracts of soybeans No.1 and soybean meal decreased, while that of soybeans No.2 increased. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of soybeans No.1 decreased, while those of soybeans No.2 and soybean meal increased, and that of soybean oil decreased [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of soybeans No.1 decreased, while those of soybeans No.2, soybean meal, and soybean oil remained unchanged [2]. Spot Price - The domestic soybean spot price remained unchanged, and the prices of soybean oil in different regions decreased or remained unchanged. The soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang remained unchanged. The basis of domestic soybean main contracts increased, and the basis of soybean oil and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang also changed [2]. - The import costs of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual yields of US and Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, but Brazil's ending inventory increased. The weekly inspection volume and export volume of soybeans decreased, while Brazil's monthly export volume increased [2]. - The port inventory of imported soybeans decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased, the national port inventory of soybean oil increased, and the monthly import volume of soybeans increased significantly [2]. - The weekly oil mill operating rate and crushing volume increased [2]. Industry Situation - The spot price of palm oil and the ex - factory price of rapeseed oil increased. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased [2]. - The average spot price of rapeseed meal increased, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. - The weekly trading volumes of oil mill soybean meal and soybean oil decreased [2]. - The daily crushing profits of domestic and imported soybeans remained unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The annual total domestic consumption of soybeans and the annual food consumption of soybean oil in China increased [2]. - The price of live pigs increased, but the expected profit of pig farming decreased. The monthly output of feed increased, and the monthly inventory of live pigs and breeding sows changed [2]. Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of soybean meal increased, and the historical volatilities of 20 - day and 60 - day soybean meal changed [2]. Industry News - USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and the 2024 level. The soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than market expectations and up 3.9% year - on - year [2][3].

研究所 中东局势影响 油脂领涨市场 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年6月20日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆高位震荡，期价较上一周明显抬升。周初美国生物柴油政策利好以及国际原油高涨给美豆带来提振，美豆震荡走高。随后美豆优良率环比下降，临池小麦高涨 ，均给美豆带来提振。不过美豆油高位获利平仓以及国际原油高位震荡反复，让美豆涨势减弱。市场在高位震荡加剧。主力合约在前高1080附近略显阻力。受此影响，国内连粕市场跟随美豆 小幅走高，巴西升贴水先抑后扬，进口成本支撑连粕重心不断抬高，不过由于油脂走强，买油卖粕套利抑制了连粕的反弹空间。相对而言，本周豆粕现货库存继续增加，但累库幅度不高，下 游远期采购增加，油厂挺价明显，豆粕现货略有上扬。当前市场影响因素复杂，宏观因素超过商品自身供求本身。在美豆震荡偏强提振下，连粕偏强市场凸显。 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 25/01/02 25/01/16 2400 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D department, covering multiple agricultural commodities including soybeans/meals, sugar, oils, corn/corn starch, hogs, peanuts, eggs, apples, and cotton - cotton yarn. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Soybeans/Meals**: Internationally, the soybean market has a high - yield pattern with export pressure. Domestically, there is an increase in arrival and start - up pressure, and future inventory accumulation is expected [2][3][5]. - **Sugar**: The global supply increase weighs on the raw sugar price. In China, due to factors like lagging summer stockpiling demand and weak raw sugar, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend [7][11]. - **Oils**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil market is volatile. The MPOB report shows certain impacts, and different oils have different supply - demand situations [16][20]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn has good sowing progress, and the domestic corn supply is relatively short with a strong spot price. The futures are expected to be strongly volatile [25][27]. - **Hogs**: Although the slaughter pressure has eased, the high inventory and large - weight pig supply will continue to put pressure on prices [33]. - **Peanuts**: The spot trading volume is low, and the 10 - contract peanut is short - term strong but has limited rebound space due to expected area increase [35][37]. - **Eggs**: The near - month contract may be weak in the off - season, while the far - month contract may rise if the supply improves [43][47]. - **Apples**: Low inventory supports the early - maturing apple price, and the 10 - month futures contract is expected to be slightly strong in June [51][53][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The short - term trend is range - bound, and the medium - long - term may be weak due to global economic pressure, but the US attitude can change the market [57][62]. Summary by Commodity Soybeans/Meals - **Market Data**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.19% to 1040.75 cents/bu, and CBOT meal index fell 0.5% to 300.8 dollars/short ton. As of June 6, the oil mill's soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year, and the meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week and decreased by 57% year - on - year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term short - selling operation, M11 - 1 positive spread, and selling call options [6]. Sugar - **Market Data**: ICE US sugar fell 0.36% to 16.42 cents/lb. As of May 2025, Guangxi's sugar sales rate reached 71.85%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 25.35 tons year - on - year [7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weakness, wait - and - see for spreads, and use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12][13][14]. Oils - **Market Data**: CBOT soybean oil changed by 0.63% to 48.04 cents/lb, and BMD palm oil changed by 0.05% to 3841 ringgit/ton. From June 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, wait - and - see for spreads and options [20][21][22]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Data**: CBOT corn futures fell 1.2%. As of June 6, 2025, northern ports' corn inventory decreased by 25.2 tons week - on - week, and the starch inventory decreased by 3.13% week - on - week [25][26]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US 07 corn oscillates at the bottom; wait - and - see for 07 corn. Do spread operations for corn and starch, and consider selling covered calls for those with spot [28][30][31]. Hogs - **Market Data**: Hog prices generally declined. As of June 11, the national average pork price decreased by 0.1% [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Light - position short - selling, LH79 reverse spread, and selling strangle strategy [34][35]. Peanuts - **Market Data**: Peanut prices vary by region. Peanut oil prices are strong, while peanut meal sales are slow. As of June 5, 2025, peanut inventory decreased by 6520 tons week - on - week [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell 10 - contract peanuts at high prices, wait - and - see for spreads, and sell pk510 - C - 8800 options [39][40][41]. Eggs - **Market Data**: Egg prices declined. In May 2025, the laying - hen inventory was 13.34 billion, and the egg sales volume increased by 1.2% week - on - week as of June 6 [43][44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in 8/9 - month contracts in mid - to late June, short near - month and long far - month spreads, and wait - and - see for options [48]. Apples - **Market Data**: As of May 21, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 24.25 tons week - on - week. In 2025, the cumulative apple export from January to March increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the import increased by 123.9% year - on - year [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in AP10 at low prices, wait - and - see for spreads and options [60]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Data**: ICE US cotton fell 0.89% to 65.38 cents/lb. As of June 7, 2025, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 1.4%. As of June 8, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 76% [57][58]. - **Trading Strategy**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly strong, wait - and - see for spreads and options [63][64][65].