| | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 09 日星期周二 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 8 日，美豆新作种植面积预估增加，对华出口放缓，美豆油下跌带动国内豆油 | | | | | 走弱，澳菜籽开榨在即，菜籽油跌幅进一步加速，棕榈油跟随下下跌。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8032 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 0.59%，日增仓 7193 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7952 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.75%，日增 | | | | | 仓 2803 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8702 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.6 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the research center's agricultural products team on July 7, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2260, the price in Jinzhou remained at 2330, the price in Weifang decreased by 8 to 2450, and the price in Shekou remained at 2460. The basis increased by 10 to -23, the trade profit remained at 0, and the import profit decreased by 8 to 423. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2850 and 2950 respectively, the basis increased by 14 to 128, and the processing profit remained at -66 [2] Market Analysis - Recently, the reserve auction of imported corn has slightly increased market supply, relieving the tense market sentiment. In the short term, the auction aims to ease market tension rather than suppress prices, and the low old - crop inventory still supports corn prices. In the long term, the widening import profit may lead to increased imports and weaker far - month prices. For starch, some enterprises raised prices due to production losses this week. In the short term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high inventory limits the rebound. In the long term, the off - season consumption restricts price increases, and after a small profit repair, short the far - month contracts [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained stable, the Liuzhou basis decreased by 2 to 381, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 96 to 23424 [4] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to drought and irregular rainfall in Brazil's 25/26 sugar season from April to May, the yield per unit and sugar content per ton of sugarcane decreased. However, the high sugar - making ratio and production increase expectations led to a decline in the 07 - contract raw sugar price, which rebounded after Pakistan's import announcement. The domestic market follows the international trend [4] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 to 14975, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 77 to 10329, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 6 to -1333 [5] Market Analysis - The rapid decline in cotton inventory has driven up prices recently, but there is resistance from hedging orders. The weak downstream demand limits the acceptance of high prices. If demand worsens or there are macro - risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will remain volatile [5] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained stable, the price in Hubei increased by 0.02 to 2.91, the basis decreased by 86 to -54, the price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10 to 3.25, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.29 to 20.58 [11] Market Analysis - Since late April, the increasing breeding losses have made farmers more willing to cull chickens. The spot price rebounded slightly in mid - June due to increased culling and cold - storage egg demand, but then fell again due to a supply - chain disruption. The culling intensity this year is expected to be lower than in previous years, and the high inventory may limit the seasonal price rebound [11] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8500. The national inventory increased by 24, Shandong inventory increased by 27, and Shandong inventory increased by 25 [13][14] Market Analysis - In the new season, apple bagging has ended in various regions. There is a slight production decline expected nationwide, with a 20% decline expected in Shandong. The 2024/25 apple consumption is in the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years, with a slight slowdown in de - stocking recently. The impact of the expected production decline needs further observation [14] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, and Jiangsu Nantong changed slightly, and the basis increased by 15 to 825 [14] Market Analysis - The long - term capacity reduction is limited, and the near - term de - stocking still has room. The futures market is trading on seasonal rebound expectations, but it needs spot verification. The weekend spot price decline, increased slaughter, and high - temperature suppression of consumption have weakened market sentiment. The de - stocking path is crucial for the far - month price trend [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For domestic soybeans, the supply is tightening, and traders are reluctant to sell at lower prices, leading to a slight increase in the price of soybeans outside the pass. However, the slow downstream digestion makes it difficult for prices to rise. In the pass, the soybean market is in the off - season, and the price remains stable before the new grain is on the market [2][3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazil's soybean exports in June 2025 are expected to increase. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is lower than previous forecasts and last year, and the inventory on June 1 is higher than expected. In the short term, domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to accumulate, and the pressure is becoming more prominent [2][3]. - For soybean meal, the supply pattern of domestic oil mills' soybean meal remains loose, and the downstream feed enterprises' subsequent replenishment enthusiasm is decreasing, resulting in prominent supply - demand pressure [3]. - For soybean oil, the supply is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is weak, but the macro - environment is stable and warm, and the increasing demand for biodiesel boosts its price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of futures for soybeans No.1, No.2, soybean meal, and soybean oil all decreased, except for soybean meal which remained unchanged. The settlement prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all increased [2]. - **Positions**: The positions of the main contracts of soybeans No.1 and soybean meal decreased, while that of soybeans No.2 increased. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of soybeans No.1 decreased, while those of soybeans No.2 and soybean meal increased, and that of soybean oil decreased [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of soybeans No.1 decreased, while those of soybeans No.2, soybean meal, and soybean oil remained unchanged [2]. Spot Price - The domestic soybean spot price remained unchanged, and the prices of soybean oil in different regions decreased or remained unchanged. The soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang remained unchanged. The basis of domestic soybean main contracts increased, and the basis of soybean oil and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang also changed [2]. - The import costs of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual yields of US and Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, but Brazil's ending inventory increased. The weekly inspection volume and export volume of soybeans decreased, while Brazil's monthly export volume increased [2]. - The port inventory of imported soybeans decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased, the national port inventory of soybean oil increased, and the monthly import volume of soybeans increased significantly [2]. - The weekly oil mill operating rate and crushing volume increased [2]. Industry Situation - The spot price of palm oil and the ex - factory price of rapeseed oil increased. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased [2]. - The average spot price of rapeseed meal increased, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. - The weekly trading volumes of oil mill soybean meal and soybean oil decreased [2]. - The daily crushing profits of domestic and imported soybeans remained unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The annual total domestic consumption of soybeans and the annual food consumption of soybean oil in China increased [2]. - The price of live pigs increased, but the expected profit of pig farming decreased. The monthly output of feed increased, and the monthly inventory of live pigs and breeding sows changed [2]. Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of soybean meal increased, and the historical volatilities of 20 - day and 60 - day soybean meal changed [2]. Industry News - USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and the 2024 level. The soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than market expectations and up 3.9% year - on - year [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market is influenced by complex factors, with macro factors outweighing commodity supply - demand. The domestic rapeseed meal market is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term pattern, but there are risks of adjustment due to concentrated long - position liquidation [6][135]. - The international and domestic oil markets are highly affected by geopolitical situations, especially the Middle - East situation. The short - term trend is oscillating upwards, but there are risks of sharp fluctuations due to long - position liquidation if the crude oil price adjusts [70][135]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans fluctuated at a high level, and the domestic rapeseed meal market followed suit, rising slightly. The soybean meal spot price also increased slightly, but the rebound space was restricted by the "buy oil, sell meal" arbitrage [6]. 3.1.2 Export and Inspection Data - As of the week ending June 12, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 215,803 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 45,415,624 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [11]. 3.1.3 Sowing Progress and Crop Conditions - As of June 16, the U.S. soybean sowing progress was 93%, the excellent - good rate was 66%, and the emergence rate was 84% [25]. 3.1.4 Weather Conditions - The active weather east of the Rocky Mountains has caused delays in fieldwork, while the weather west of the Rocky Mountains is hot and dry [28]. 3.1.5 Global Market News - China plans to reduce the proportion of soybean meal in feed, which may reduce soybean import demand. The U.S. is expected to increase the planting areas of soybeans, corn, and spring wheat. Ukraine maintains a zero - export - tariff policy for soybeans and rapeseeds. Argentina will raise soybean export tariffs from June 30 [36][37]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Profitability - As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 5.988 million tons. The domestic spot and futures crushing profits have recovered [45]. 3.1.7 Production and Inventory of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - As of the 24th week of 2025, the domestic soybean oil mill's average startup rate was 65.04%, and the soybean meal inventory was 413,000 tons. The imported rapeseed startup rate was 13.45%, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 10,000 tons [53][63]. 3.1.8 Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 24th week was 1.8644 million tons [57]. 3.2 Oil Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Trends - This week, international oils rose significantly. The U.S. EPA's new biofuel blending proposal and the Middle - East situation drove up the prices. The domestic oil market followed the international market, with different oils taking turns leading the rise [70]. 3.2.2 International Oil Information - India cancelled some palm oil orders due to high prices. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased in May. Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 increased by 10.88% year - on - year. The U.S. NOPA's May soybean oil inventory decreased significantly [75][76][78]. 3.2.3 Weather in Southeast Asia - From June 11 - 13, Typhoon "Utip" brought heavy rain to parts of Vietnam, and seasonal monsoon showers prevailed in other areas [81]. 3.2.4 Spot Price Trends and Spread Analysis - The overall trend of oils this week was rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly declined [109]. 3.2.5 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 24th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.1958 million tons, showing a week - on - week increase [94]. 3.2.6 Basis Analysis - This week, the 9 - 1 positive - spread logic applied to soybean oil and palm oil, and the 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline [119][122]. 3.3后市展望 3.3.1 Seasonal Analysis - No specific conclusions were drawn from the seasonal analysis charts provided in the report. 3.3.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - Technically, the short - and medium - term indicators of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are bullish, while the long - term indicators are entangled [134]. - Fundamentally, the protein meal market may face pressure if the Middle - East peace talks are successful; otherwise, it will continue to oscillate strongly. The oil market will be affected by the Middle - East situation, and short - term oscillations are expected to be strong, but chasing high prices should be done with caution [135].

Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D department, covering multiple agricultural commodities including soybeans/meals, sugar, oils, corn/corn starch, hogs, peanuts, eggs, apples, and cotton - cotton yarn. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Soybeans/Meals**: Internationally, the soybean market has a high - yield pattern with export pressure. Domestically, there is an increase in arrival and start - up pressure, and future inventory accumulation is expected [2][3][5]. - **Sugar**: The global supply increase weighs on the raw sugar price. In China, due to factors like lagging summer stockpiling demand and weak raw sugar, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend [7][11]. - **Oils**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil market is volatile. The MPOB report shows certain impacts, and different oils have different supply - demand situations [16][20]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn has good sowing progress, and the domestic corn supply is relatively short with a strong spot price. The futures are expected to be strongly volatile [25][27]. - **Hogs**: Although the slaughter pressure has eased, the high inventory and large - weight pig supply will continue to put pressure on prices [33]. - **Peanuts**: The spot trading volume is low, and the 10 - contract peanut is short - term strong but has limited rebound space due to expected area increase [35][37]. - **Eggs**: The near - month contract may be weak in the off - season, while the far - month contract may rise if the supply improves [43][47]. - **Apples**: Low inventory supports the early - maturing apple price, and the 10 - month futures contract is expected to be slightly strong in June [51][53][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The short - term trend is range - bound, and the medium - long - term may be weak due to global economic pressure, but the US attitude can change the market [57][62]. Summary by Commodity Soybeans/Meals - **Market Data**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.19% to 1040.75 cents/bu, and CBOT meal index fell 0.5% to 300.8 dollars/short ton. As of June 6, the oil mill's soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year, and the meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week and decreased by 57% year - on - year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term short - selling operation, M11 - 1 positive spread, and selling call options [6]. Sugar - **Market Data**: ICE US sugar fell 0.36% to 16.42 cents/lb. As of May 2025, Guangxi's sugar sales rate reached 71.85%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 25.35 tons year - on - year [7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weakness, wait - and - see for spreads, and use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12][13][14]. Oils - **Market Data**: CBOT soybean oil changed by 0.63% to 48.04 cents/lb, and BMD palm oil changed by 0.05% to 3841 ringgit/ton. From June 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, wait - and - see for spreads and options [20][21][22]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Data**: CBOT corn futures fell 1.2%. As of June 6, 2025, northern ports' corn inventory decreased by 25.2 tons week - on - week, and the starch inventory decreased by 3.13% week - on - week [25][26]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US 07 corn oscillates at the bottom; wait - and - see for 07 corn. Do spread operations for corn and starch, and consider selling covered calls for those with spot [28][30][31]. Hogs - **Market Data**: Hog prices generally declined. As of June 11, the national average pork price decreased by 0.1% [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Light - position short - selling, LH79 reverse spread, and selling strangle strategy [34][35]. Peanuts - **Market Data**: Peanut prices vary by region. Peanut oil prices are strong, while peanut meal sales are slow. As of June 5, 2025, peanut inventory decreased by 6520 tons week - on - week [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell 10 - contract peanuts at high prices, wait - and - see for spreads, and sell pk510 - C - 8800 options [39][40][41]. Eggs - **Market Data**: Egg prices declined. In May 2025, the laying - hen inventory was 13.34 billion, and the egg sales volume increased by 1.2% week - on - week as of June 6 [43][44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in 8/9 - month contracts in mid - to late June, short near - month and long far - month spreads, and wait - and - see for options [48]. Apples - **Market Data**: As of May 21, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 24.25 tons week - on - week. In 2025, the cumulative apple export from January to March increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the import increased by 123.9% year - on - year [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in AP10 at low prices, wait - and - see for spreads and options [60]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Data**: ICE US cotton fell 0.89% to 65.38 cents/lb. As of June 7, 2025, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 1.4%. As of June 8, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 76% [57][58]. - **Trading Strategy**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly strong, wait - and - see for spreads and options [63][64][65].