Group 1: Wheat Market Overview - Wheat prices in January showed a slight recovery after a period of decline, with average prices in major production areas at 2496.99 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.40 yuan/ton but a year-on-year increase of 5.94% [1] - The market faced mixed influences, including reduced willingness to sell among grain merchants and limited processing demand from flour enterprises, which constrained price increases [1] - In February, the wheat market maintained stability at high levels, with minor fluctuations observed [3] Group 2: Consumption Market - In January, the wheat purchasing prices for flour enterprises initially decreased but later increased due to a cautious selling mentality among farmers and limited processing demand [3] - The average operating load of small and medium-sized flour enterprises increased to 41.93%, up 2.79 percentage points from the previous month, although the overall increase was modest [3] - The flour industry faced a "weak peak season," with limited order increases and high raw material costs, leading to price declines for flour that outpaced those of wheat [3] Group 3: Wheat Futures and Import Data - The CBOT wheat futures experienced fluctuations, with the March contract closing at 523.5 cents/bushel, a 0.62% increase from December [7] - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of wheat and wheat flour, a year-on-year increase of 273.4%, while the total import volume for the year was 3.98 million tons, a decrease of 64.4% [8] Group 4: Global Wheat Supply and Demand Forecast - Global wheat supply, consumption, trade volume, and ending stocks all increased in January, with supply up by 4.3 million tons to 110.22 million tons, primarily due to increased production in Argentina and Russia [8] - Argentina's wheat production was raised by 3.5 million tons to a record 27.5 million tons, while Russia's production was adjusted up by 2 million tons to 89.5 million tons [8] - Global wheat consumption was forecasted to rise by 900,000 tons to 82.39 million tons, driven by increased consumption in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco [8] Group 5: Future Market Analysis - The wheat market is expected to remain stable but may trend weaker in the short term due to a supply-demand imbalance, with processing enterprises concluding their pre-holiday stockpiling [11] - The continued release of policy wheat is expected to keep market supply ample, with controlled risks for significant price fluctuations [11] - Post-holiday, demand may weaken further, potentially leading to slight price declines for wheat [11]

Report Overview - The report is a daily agricultural product report from Wukuang Futures, covering multiple agricultural products including sugar, cotton, protein meal, oils and fats, eggs, and pigs [1][2] Sugar Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5,261 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton or 0.63% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,280 - 5,380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - As of the first half of January in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.23 million tons, an increase of 345,000 tons year - on - year. As of the week of February 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 49, down from 54 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5644 million tons, down from 1.7826 million tons in the previous week [3] - StoneX expects the global sugar market to remain in oversupply in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, with an estimated surplus of 2.9 million tons. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production had reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8% [3] - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year [3] - In December 2025, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar. The cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The sugar sales volume in December was 1.22 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales volume in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season was 1.57 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3] Strategy - The current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane used for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar - crushing in February and the bearish impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. Currently, the supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price has fallen to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [4] Cotton Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,580 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day. The spot price of China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6] - As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [6] - From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 8,800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons [6][7] - The USDA's January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [7] - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [7] Strategy - In the short term, affected by the large fluctuations in the commodity market, Zheng cotton fluctuates widely at a high level. In the medium - to - long term, the planting area in the new year is reduced, and with the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal Market Information - On Monday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,729 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,238 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day [10] - Trump said that China agreed to increase the purchase of US soybeans this season from 12 million tons to 20 million tons [11] - StoneX's latest forecast shows that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 181 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the January forecast and a year - on - year increase of 13 million tons [11] - As of January 31, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 99.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year and an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the five - year average. The soybean harvesting rate was 11.4%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from the same period last year and a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the five - year average [11] - From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 260,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 900,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week [11] Strategy - The expectation of China's increased purchase of US soybeans has pushed up the price of US soybeans. For China, on the one hand, the long - term supply pressure will increase, but on the other hand, as the price of US soybeans rises, the import cost will increase. It is expected that the protein meal price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [12] Oils and Fats Market Information - On Monday, the oils and fats futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,144 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,014 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,137 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day [14] - It is estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in January 2026 was 1.62 million tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from the previous month. The export was 1.42 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous month. The inventory was 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous month [15] - The US Treasury Department issued the latest guidance on biofuel tax credits, which was welcomed by the market. A public hearing is scheduled for May. The data released by shipping survey agencies ITS and AmSpec showed that the palm oil export volume in Malaysia in January increased by 14.9% and 17.9% respectively month - on - month [17] - From January 30 to February 6, the domestic sample data of the three major oils and fats inventory increased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.92 million tons [17] Strategy - Driven by the biofuel policies of various countries, the consumption growth of oils and fats this year is greater than the production growth rate. The price of oils and fats is bullish in the medium term. In the short term, affected by the large fluctuations in the commodity market, the price of oils and fats fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then go long [18] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, most of the national egg prices were stable, and a few decreased. The average price in the main production areas remained at 3.38 yuan/jin. The price in Xinji decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.73 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao remained at 2.89 yuan/jin, and the price in Dongguan decreased by 0.08 yuan to 3.15 yuan/jin. The supply of goods was sufficient, and the market demand weakened. It is expected that today's national egg prices may be stable or decline [20] Strategy - The market is in the inventory - accumulation period around the Spring Festival. Under weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall and difficult to rise, which has a downward impact on the futures market. Considering that the inventory has accumulated rapidly before the festival and the spot price has dropped significantly, the near - month contract may still have a premium to be squeezed out. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy. In the long - term, after the spot price turns around, the logic of production capacity reduction will be re - traded, but the implementation path is still uncertain under low cost and high premium. Attention should still be paid to the pressure after the price rises [21] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.05 yuan to 12.09 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.25 yuan to 10.89 yuan/kg. The price - holding mentality of farmers in most areas has become stronger. It is expected that today's pig price will be mainly stable, with slight fluctuations in individual areas [23] Strategy - The large basic supply and the current accumulation of live - pig inventory make the spot and near - term expectations pessimistic. Considering the current weight - reduction intention of large - scale farms and the relatively high number of pigs in small - scale farms, the near - term price may still be under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies. In the long - term, although the decline in production capacity has been revised down, the high fat - to - standard pig price difference, seasonal support, and the expectation of consumption demand recovery still exist. Attention should be paid to the support level after the price drops [24]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of vegetable oils is weak. Short positions in palm oil should be entered, short positions in soybean oil should be held, and short positions in rapeseed oil should continue to be held. Soybean oil will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium term, palm oil is short - term long and long - term short, and rapeseed oil has the largest decline [1][2]. - For double - meal products, the supply pressure in the overseas protein raw material market has increased, and short positions in soybean meal and rapeseed meal should continue to be held [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock - Three Oils (1) Market Review - On December 8, due to the expected increase in the new planting area of US soybeans, the slowdown of exports to China, and the decline of US soybean oil driving down domestic soybean oil, the approaching start of Australian rapeseed crushing accelerating the decline of rapeseed oil, and palm oil following the decline. The main contract of soybean oil Y2605 closed at 8,032 yuan/ton, down 0.59% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 7,193 lots in positions; the second - main contract Y2609 closed at 7,952 yuan/ton, down 0.75% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 2,803 lots in positions. The main contract of palm oil P2605 closed at 8,702 yuan/ton, down 0.68% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 9,331 lots in positions; the second - main contract P2609 closed at 8,546 yuan/ton, down 0.67% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 379 lots in positions. The main contract of rapeseed oil OI2605 closed at 9,274 yuan/ton, down 1.41% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 10,130 lots in positions; the second - main contract OI2609 closed at 9,250 yuan/ton, down 1.29% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 130 lots in positions [1]. (2) Important Information - On December 8, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures fell about 2%. The NYMEX's most actively traded January crude oil futures contract fell $1.20, or 2%, to settle at $58.88 per barrel [1]. - Statistics Canada announced that Canada's rapeseed production in 2025 increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons, exceeding the record set in 2017 and higher than analysts' expectations of 21.25 million tons [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA) showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in November decreased by 0.19% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 2.09% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.36% month - on - month [1]. - Data from the shipping survey agency ITS showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in November were 1,316,455 tons, a decrease of 19.7% compared with 1,639,089 tons in October. Exports to China were 129,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared with 135,000 tons in October [1]. - Bloomberg's survey and forecast data showed that in November, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.98 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%; exports were 1.43 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15%; inventory was 2.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. Imports were estimated at 40,000 tons, and consumption was about 380,000 tons. The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) said that Malaysia's palm oil production in November 2025 was estimated to be 1.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38% [1]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that the amount of soybean oil used in US biofuel production in September 2025 was 1.053 billion pounds, higher than 1.041 billion pounds in August [1]. - As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4294 million tons, a weekly decrease of 16,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.06%. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.4016 million tons, a weekly decrease of 15,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.21%; the edible palm oil inventory was 622,200 tons, a weekly increase of 18,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%, and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%; the rapeseed oil inventory was 405,600 tons, a weekly decrease of 18,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.45%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.67% [2]. (3) Spot Market - As of December 8, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,570 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton; the basis was 340 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 36 yuan/ton. The average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,690 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton, the basis was - 16 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 14 yuan/ton. The import profit of palm oil was - 491.76 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,760 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 110 yuan/ton, the basis was 258 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6 yuan/ton [2]. (4) Oil - Meal Ratio - As of December 8, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.96 [2]. (5) Market Logic - Externally, the expected increase in the new - year planting area of US soybeans put pressure on US soybean oil, and the decline of surrounding vegetable oil futures prices dragged down Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, due to sufficient supply of vegetable oil raw materials and good overall inventory, the basis of soybean oil was weak. However, due to the price - ratio factor between soybean oil and palm oil, the Y2605 contract of domestic soybean oil mainly showed a range - bound oscillation. The trend of domestic palm oil mainly followed that of Malaysian palm oil, with a short - term rebound ending and a long - term downward pressure pattern formed. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and Canada's increase in rapeseed production in 2025 to a new historical high led to a sharp decline in the near - month contracts of domestic rapeseed oil. Overall, the vegetable oil market was weak [2]. (6) Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Enter short positions in palm oil, hold short positions in soybean oil, and continue to hold short positions in rapeseed oil. The resistance level of the Y2601 contract is 9,000, and the support level is 8,000; the resistance level of the Y2605 contract is 8,400, and the support level is 7,840; the resistance level of the P2601 contract is 8,562, and the support level is 8,270; the resistance level of the P2605 contract is 8,626, and the support level is 8,200; the resistance level of the OI2601 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9,299; the resistance level of the OI2605 contract is 12,000, and the support level is 9,000. Arbitrage trading: Cautiously hold the expanding spread of the 05 contracts of soybean oil and palm oil. As of the close on December 2, it was - 666, and on December 8, it was - 670 [2]. 2. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) (1) Market Review - On December 8, due to the strengthened expectation of the growth of the new - crop planting area of US soybeans and the slowdown of US soybean exports to China, the double - meal products broke through the support level and declined. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2,778 yuan/ton, down 1.52% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 1.07 million lots in positions; the second - main contract M2609 closed at 2,896 yuan/ton, down 1.36% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 8,583 lots in positions. The main contract of rapeseed meal RM2605 closed at 2,342 yuan/ton, down 1.47% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 41,969 lots in positions; the second - main contract RM2609 closed at 2,408 yuan/ton, down 1.55% day - on - day in closing price, with an increase of 4,291 lots in positions [2]. (2) Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimated that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers would reduce the corn - planting area and increase the soybean - planting area to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted that the US soybean - planting area in 2026 would increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres [2]. - Since November 10, China's General Administration of Customs has restored the soybean - import licenses of three US companies, namely CHS, the grain department of Louis Dreyfus, and EGT [2]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing area of soybeans in the 2025/26 season in Brazil reached 89% of the expected area, 8 percentage points higher than the previous week but still lower than 91% in the same period last year [2]. - The consulting firm StoneX predicted on Monday that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season might reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [2]. - From November 1 to 21, Brazil's soybean exports were 3.366 million tons, compared with 2.553 million tons in November last year. The average daily export volume from November so far was 240,452 tons, a year - on - year increase of 78.9% [2]. - As of the week ending November 27, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 920,194 tons, with a market expectation of 800,000 - 1,250,000 tons. The previous week's revised figure was 808,740 tons, and the initial value was 799,042 tons. The soybean export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland that week was 0 tons [2]. - As of the end of the 49th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.804 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons compared with 8.012 million tons last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons compared with 1.22 million tons last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.33%; the contract volume was 6.42 million tons, an increase of 1.504 million tons compared with 4.916 million tons last week, a month - on - month increase of 30.59%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 65,000 tons, the same as last week [3]. (3) Spot Market - As of December 8, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,093 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 43,000 tons. The basis price of soybean meal was 3,078 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 223,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean - meal contract was 14 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,385 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 23 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis was 2,507 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 0 tons. The basis of the main rapeseed - meal contract was 208 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/ton [3]. (4) Crushing Profit - The January futures crushing profit of US soybeans was - 528 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was - 230 yuan/ton; the February futures crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was - 174 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was 124 yuan/ton [3]. (5) Soybean Arrival Cost - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans for the January shipment at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 4,071 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans for the February shipment at Zhangjiagang was 3,753 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of US Gulf soybeans for the January shipment was $500/ton; the CNF quote of Brazilian soybeans for the February shipment was $460/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian soybeans for the January shipment was $515/ton; the arrival cost of rapeseed for the January shipment at Guangzhou Port was 4,425 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton [3]. (6) Market Logic - Externally, the US Department of Agriculture and S&P successively increased the expected soybean - planting area in the 2026/2027 season, and the delay of exports to China, along with Canada's increase in rapeseed production, put pressure on the protein market, causing US soybeans to continue to decline under pressure. In the spot market, the fixed - price and near - month basis of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the trading volume improved slightly during the week. The rumor of the targeted auction by Sinograin was confirmed, and the first 500,000 - ton auction will start on December 11, putting pressure on the far - month contracts and leading to an increase in short positions by funds. In the rapeseed - meal spot market, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed for crushing in mid - to - late December, the recovery of domestic imported granular meal inventory, and the off - season of the aquaculture industry, rapeseed meal was under pressure [3]. (7) Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Continue to hold short positions in soybean meal and rapeseed meal. The resistance level of the M2605 contract is 2,858, and the support level is 2,700; the resistance level of the M2607 contract is 2,840, and the support level is 2,700; the resistance level of the RM2605 contract is 2,444, and the support level is 2,270; the resistance level of the RM2607 contract is 2,429, and the support level is 2,260. Arbitrage trading: No trading strategy provided [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the research center's agricultural products team on July 7, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2260, the price in Jinzhou remained at 2330, the price in Weifang decreased by 8 to 2450, and the price in Shekou remained at 2460. The basis increased by 10 to -23, the trade profit remained at 0, and the import profit decreased by 8 to 423. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2850 and 2950 respectively, the basis increased by 14 to 128, and the processing profit remained at -66 [2] Market Analysis - Recently, the reserve auction of imported corn has slightly increased market supply, relieving the tense market sentiment. In the short term, the auction aims to ease market tension rather than suppress prices, and the low old - crop inventory still supports corn prices. In the long term, the widening import profit may lead to increased imports and weaker far - month prices. For starch, some enterprises raised prices due to production losses this week. In the short term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high inventory limits the rebound. In the long term, the off - season consumption restricts price increases, and after a small profit repair, short the far - month contracts [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained stable, the Liuzhou basis decreased by 2 to 381, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 96 to 23424 [4] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to drought and irregular rainfall in Brazil's 25/26 sugar season from April to May, the yield per unit and sugar content per ton of sugarcane decreased. However, the high sugar - making ratio and production increase expectations led to a decline in the 07 - contract raw sugar price, which rebounded after Pakistan's import announcement. The domestic market follows the international trend [4] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 to 14975, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 77 to 10329, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 6 to -1333 [5] Market Analysis - The rapid decline in cotton inventory has driven up prices recently, but there is resistance from hedging orders. The weak downstream demand limits the acceptance of high prices. If demand worsens or there are macro - risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will remain volatile [5] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained stable, the price in Hubei increased by 0.02 to 2.91, the basis decreased by 86 to -54, the price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10 to 3.25, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.29 to 20.58 [11] Market Analysis - Since late April, the increasing breeding losses have made farmers more willing to cull chickens. The spot price rebounded slightly in mid - June due to increased culling and cold - storage egg demand, but then fell again due to a supply - chain disruption. The culling intensity this year is expected to be lower than in previous years, and the high inventory may limit the seasonal price rebound [11] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8500. The national inventory increased by 24, Shandong inventory increased by 27, and Shandong inventory increased by 25 [13][14] Market Analysis - In the new season, apple bagging has ended in various regions. There is a slight production decline expected nationwide, with a 20% decline expected in Shandong. The 2024/25 apple consumption is in the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years, with a slight slowdown in de - stocking recently. The impact of the expected production decline needs further observation [14] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, and Jiangsu Nantong changed slightly, and the basis increased by 15 to 825 [14] Market Analysis - The long - term capacity reduction is limited, and the near - term de - stocking still has room. The futures market is trading on seasonal rebound expectations, but it needs spot verification. The weekend spot price decline, increased slaughter, and high - temperature suppression of consumption have weakened market sentiment. The de - stocking path is crucial for the far - month price trend [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For domestic soybeans, the supply is tightening, and traders are reluctant to sell at lower prices, leading to a slight increase in the price of soybeans outside the pass. However, the slow downstream digestion makes it difficult for prices to rise. In the pass, the soybean market is in the off - season, and the price remains stable before the new grain is on the market [2][3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazil's soybean exports in June 2025 are expected to increase. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is lower than previous forecasts and last year, and the inventory on June 1 is higher than expected. In the short term, domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to accumulate, and the pressure is becoming more prominent [2][3]. - For soybean meal, the supply pattern of domestic oil mills' soybean meal remains loose, and the downstream feed enterprises' subsequent replenishment enthusiasm is decreasing, resulting in prominent supply - demand pressure [3]. - For soybean oil, the supply is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is weak, but the macro - environment is stable and warm, and the increasing demand for biodiesel boosts its price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of futures for soybeans No.1, No.2, soybean meal, and soybean oil all decreased, except for soybean meal which remained unchanged. The settlement prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all increased [2]. - **Positions**: The positions of the main contracts of soybeans No.1 and soybean meal decreased, while that of soybeans No.2 increased. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of soybeans No.1 decreased, while those of soybeans No.2 and soybean meal increased, and that of soybean oil decreased [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of soybeans No.1 decreased, while those of soybeans No.2, soybean meal, and soybean oil remained unchanged [2]. Spot Price - The domestic soybean spot price remained unchanged, and the prices of soybean oil in different regions decreased or remained unchanged. The soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang remained unchanged. The basis of domestic soybean main contracts increased, and the basis of soybean oil and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang also changed [2]. - The import costs of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The annual yields of US and Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, but Brazil's ending inventory increased. The weekly inspection volume and export volume of soybeans decreased, while Brazil's monthly export volume increased [2]. - The port inventory of imported soybeans decreased, the soybean meal inventory increased, the national port inventory of soybean oil increased, and the monthly import volume of soybeans increased significantly [2]. - The weekly oil mill operating rate and crushing volume increased [2]. Industry Situation - The spot price of palm oil and the ex - factory price of rapeseed oil increased. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased [2]. - The average spot price of rapeseed meal increased, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. - The weekly trading volumes of oil mill soybean meal and soybean oil decreased [2]. - The daily crushing profits of domestic and imported soybeans remained unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The annual total domestic consumption of soybeans and the annual food consumption of soybean oil in China increased [2]. - The price of live pigs increased, but the expected profit of pig farming decreased. The monthly output of feed increased, and the monthly inventory of live pigs and breeding sows changed [2]. Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of soybean meal increased, and the historical volatilities of 20 - day and 60 - day soybean meal changed [2]. Industry News - USDA adjusted the 2025 US soybean planting area to 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and the 2024 level. The soybean inventory on June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, higher than market expectations and up 3.9% year - on - year [2][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market is influenced by complex factors, with macro factors outweighing commodity supply - demand. The domestic rapeseed meal market is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term pattern, but there are risks of adjustment due to concentrated long - position liquidation [6][135]. - The international and domestic oil markets are highly affected by geopolitical situations, especially the Middle - East situation. The short - term trend is oscillating upwards, but there are risks of sharp fluctuations due to long - position liquidation if the crude oil price adjusts [70][135]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans fluctuated at a high level, and the domestic rapeseed meal market followed suit, rising slightly. The soybean meal spot price also increased slightly, but the rebound space was restricted by the "buy oil, sell meal" arbitrage [6]. 3.1.2 Export and Inspection Data - As of the week ending June 12, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 215,803 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 45,415,624 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [11]. 3.1.3 Sowing Progress and Crop Conditions - As of June 16, the U.S. soybean sowing progress was 93%, the excellent - good rate was 66%, and the emergence rate was 84% [25]. 3.1.4 Weather Conditions - The active weather east of the Rocky Mountains has caused delays in fieldwork, while the weather west of the Rocky Mountains is hot and dry [28]. 3.1.5 Global Market News - China plans to reduce the proportion of soybean meal in feed, which may reduce soybean import demand. The U.S. is expected to increase the planting areas of soybeans, corn, and spring wheat. Ukraine maintains a zero - export - tariff policy for soybeans and rapeseeds. Argentina will raise soybean export tariffs from June 30 [36][37]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Profitability - As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 5.988 million tons. The domestic spot and futures crushing profits have recovered [45]. 3.1.7 Production and Inventory of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - As of the 24th week of 2025, the domestic soybean oil mill's average startup rate was 65.04%, and the soybean meal inventory was 413,000 tons. The imported rapeseed startup rate was 13.45%, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 10,000 tons [53][63]. 3.1.8 Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 24th week was 1.8644 million tons [57]. 3.2 Oil Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Trends - This week, international oils rose significantly. The U.S. EPA's new biofuel blending proposal and the Middle - East situation drove up the prices. The domestic oil market followed the international market, with different oils taking turns leading the rise [70]. 3.2.2 International Oil Information - India cancelled some palm oil orders due to high prices. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased in May. Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 increased by 10.88% year - on - year. The U.S. NOPA's May soybean oil inventory decreased significantly [75][76][78]. 3.2.3 Weather in Southeast Asia - From June 11 - 13, Typhoon "Utip" brought heavy rain to parts of Vietnam, and seasonal monsoon showers prevailed in other areas [81]. 3.2.4 Spot Price Trends and Spread Analysis - The overall trend of oils this week was rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly declined [109]. 3.2.5 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 24th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.1958 million tons, showing a week - on - week increase [94]. 3.2.6 Basis Analysis - This week, the 9 - 1 positive - spread logic applied to soybean oil and palm oil, and the 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline [119][122]. 3.3后市展望 3.3.1 Seasonal Analysis - No specific conclusions were drawn from the seasonal analysis charts provided in the report. 3.3.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - Technically, the short - and medium - term indicators of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are bullish, while the long - term indicators are entangled [134]. - Fundamentally, the protein meal market may face pressure if the Middle - East peace talks are successful; otherwise, it will continue to oscillate strongly. The oil market will be affected by the Middle - East situation, and short - term oscillations are expected to be strong, but chasing high prices should be done with caution [135].

Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation by the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D department, covering multiple agricultural commodities including soybeans/meals, sugar, oils, corn/corn starch, hogs, peanuts, eggs, apples, and cotton - cotton yarn. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Soybeans/Meals**: Internationally, the soybean market has a high - yield pattern with export pressure. Domestically, there is an increase in arrival and start - up pressure, and future inventory accumulation is expected [2][3][5]. - **Sugar**: The global supply increase weighs on the raw sugar price. In China, due to factors like lagging summer stockpiling demand and weak raw sugar, the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend [7][11]. - **Oils**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the oil market is volatile. The MPOB report shows certain impacts, and different oils have different supply - demand situations [16][20]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn has good sowing progress, and the domestic corn supply is relatively short with a strong spot price. The futures are expected to be strongly volatile [25][27]. - **Hogs**: Although the slaughter pressure has eased, the high inventory and large - weight pig supply will continue to put pressure on prices [33]. - **Peanuts**: The spot trading volume is low, and the 10 - contract peanut is short - term strong but has limited rebound space due to expected area increase [35][37]. - **Eggs**: The near - month contract may be weak in the off - season, while the far - month contract may rise if the supply improves [43][47]. - **Apples**: Low inventory supports the early - maturing apple price, and the 10 - month futures contract is expected to be slightly strong in June [51][53][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The short - term trend is range - bound, and the medium - long - term may be weak due to global economic pressure, but the US attitude can change the market [57][62]. Summary by Commodity Soybeans/Meals - **Market Data**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.19% to 1040.75 cents/bu, and CBOT meal index fell 0.5% to 300.8 dollars/short ton. As of June 6, the oil mill's soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year, and the meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week and decreased by 57% year - on - year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term short - selling operation, M11 - 1 positive spread, and selling call options [6]. Sugar - **Market Data**: ICE US sugar fell 0.36% to 16.42 cents/lb. As of May 2025, Guangxi's sugar sales rate reached 71.85%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 25.35 tons year - on - year [7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weakness, wait - and - see for spreads, and use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [12][13][14]. Oils - **Market Data**: CBOT soybean oil changed by 0.63% to 48.04 cents/lb, and BMD palm oil changed by 0.05% to 3841 ringgit/ton. From June 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, wait - and - see for spreads and options [20][21][22]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Data**: CBOT corn futures fell 1.2%. As of June 6, 2025, northern ports' corn inventory decreased by 25.2 tons week - on - week, and the starch inventory decreased by 3.13% week - on - week [25][26]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US 07 corn oscillates at the bottom; wait - and - see for 07 corn. Do spread operations for corn and starch, and consider selling covered calls for those with spot [28][30][31]. Hogs - **Market Data**: Hog prices generally declined. As of June 11, the national average pork price decreased by 0.1% [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Light - position short - selling, LH79 reverse spread, and selling strangle strategy [34][35]. Peanuts - **Market Data**: Peanut prices vary by region. Peanut oil prices are strong, while peanut meal sales are slow. As of June 5, 2025, peanut inventory decreased by 6520 tons week - on - week [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell 10 - contract peanuts at high prices, wait - and - see for spreads, and sell pk510 - C - 8800 options [39][40][41]. Eggs - **Market Data**: Egg prices declined. In May 2025, the laying - hen inventory was 13.34 billion, and the egg sales volume increased by 1.2% week - on - week as of June 6 [43][44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in 8/9 - month contracts in mid - to late June, short near - month and long far - month spreads, and wait - and - see for options [48]. Apples - **Market Data**: As of May 21, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 24.25 tons week - on - week. In 2025, the cumulative apple export from January to March increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the import increased by 123.9% year - on - year [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: Build long positions in AP10 at low prices, wait - and - see for spreads and options [60]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Data**: ICE US cotton fell 0.89% to 65.38 cents/lb. As of June 7, 2025, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 1.4%. As of June 8, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 76% [57][58]. - **Trading Strategy**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly strong, wait - and - see for spreads and options [63][64][65].