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五矿期货农产品早报-20251029
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. Although there are signals of China potentially importing US soybeans, the increase in US soybean prices may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premiums. The import cost will mainly fluctuate. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the profit margin for oil extraction is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the higher - than - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market. The current high supply may lead to inventory accumulation, but this situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to wait for clearer production signals and currently stay on the sidelines [5][7]. - For sugar, short - term import controls on syrups and pre - mixed powders have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to negative data on sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region since September and expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [9][10]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. With the expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, the selling - hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the upward space is relatively limited in the short term [12][13]. - For eggs, the spot price still has a rebound expectation, but the space is limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the spot price increase can cover the futures premium. Currently, it is in the traditional stocking season, and the spot price has limited downward space with a small upward expectation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait [15][17]. - For pigs, in the medium term, due to the high slaughter scale and expected future supply, pig prices are likely to be more likely to fall than to rise. In the short term, there is a short - term rebound, but the market may fluctuate. It is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions during the rebound and short when approaching the pressure level [19][20]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose as US officials said China would make large - scale purchases of US soybeans. On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price fell slightly by 20 yuan, with the price in East China at 2,890 yuan/ton. The trading volume of soybean meal was weak, but the pick - up was good. Last week, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, while the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory was high and showed a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.3392 million tons, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week [2]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 36% of the expected level, and the rainfall in the main planting areas was at a medium level. Frequent consultations on trade issues between China and the US are expected to be beneficial to US soybeans in the short term, but the international soybean supply is abundant, and the high premium in Brazil may decline, leading to a weakening import cost. Domestically, high soybean and soybean meal inventories mean that US soybean imports will slow down the de - stocking process and reduce the profit margin for oil extraction [2]. Strategy Views - In terms of import cost, the signal of China potentially importing US soybeans may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premiums, so the import cost will mainly fluctuate. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the profit margin for oil extraction is under pressure. Given the loose global soybean supply, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [4]. Oil Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month, 12.3% - 16.2% in the first 15 days, 3.4% in the first 20 days, and decreased by 0.4% in the first 25 days. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, 2.71% in the first 20 days, and 1.63% in the first 25 days [5]. - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said that Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 7.34 million tons [5]. - Indonesia said that due to good weather, its palm oil production in 2025 may increase by 10%. On Tuesday, domestic oils fell. High palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia recently has suppressed the market. Indonesia's August production data still significantly exceeded previous years, weakening the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of next year. There are also rumors that Indonesia may suspend the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy Views - The higher - than - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market. The current high - supply and inventory - accumulation situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. Otherwise, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to wait for clearer production signals and currently stay on the sidelines [7]. Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,483 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,660 - 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,600 - 5,640 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton; processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 5,790 - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 0 - 30 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 177 yuan/ton [9]. - On October 14, the General Administration of Customs announced regulations on the registration management of overseas production enterprises of imported food. The number of enterprises suspended from importing Thai syrups and pre - mixed powders has increased from 35 to 44, with only 16 being effective, and the scope of suspension has expanded from 1,702 items to 2,106 items [9]. Strategy Views - Short - term import controls on syrups and pre - mixed powders have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to negative data on sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region since September and expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, resulting in a large profit margin for out - of - quota imports. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 13,565 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,830 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,265 yuan/ton [12]. - On October 27, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, and that of hand - picked cotton was 7.06 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. As of the week of October 24, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week, 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [12]. Strategy Views - Fundamentally, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. With the expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, the selling - hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the upward space is relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas showing narrow - range adjustments. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.94 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and that in Guantao dropped 0.11 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, and farmers were actively selling. The market sales were average, and industry players generally followed the market. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable today, with a few areas showing weak adjustments [15][16]. Strategy Views - The spot price still has a rebound expectation, but the space is limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the spot price increase can cover the futures premium. Currently, it is in the traditional stocking season, and the spot price has limited downward space with a small upward expectation. The futures market has high positions, and it is expected to remain at the bottom, but the upward space is not optimistic, and the trend may be volatile. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [17]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to rise. The average price in Henan increased 0.23 yuan to 12.75 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan increased 0.35 yuan to 12.27 yuan/kg, and that in Guangxi increased 0.43 yuan to 12.18 yuan/kg. Some farmers in low - price areas may still have a tendency to hold back sales. Although pig prices continued to be strong, the downstream purchasing power was limited in some northern regions after the previous price increase. It is expected that prices will be stable today, with possible declines in some areas [19]. Strategy Views - Currently, the slaughter scale and the expected future supply are still high, and the decline in pig weight during the price drop was limited. In the medium term, with high supply pressure, pig prices are likely to be more likely to fall than to rise. In the short term, multiple factors have led to a rebound, and the supporting factors still exist. The futures market with high positions is prone to fluctuations. It is expected that there will be a short - term rebound. In the medium term, it is advisable to gradually establish reverse - spread positions during the rebound and short when approaching the pressure level [20].
油脂油料早报-20251028
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 01:44
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,061,375 tons, in line with market expectations, and the cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, lower than the same period last year [1] - As of last Thursday, the planting rate of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season reached 36% of the expected sown area, unchanged from the same period last year [1] - From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% month - on - month, with a 1.63% increase in fresh fruit bunch yield and a 0.22% increase in oil extraction rate [1] - Different institutions' data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25, 2025 showed different trends: SGS reported a 23.79% increase, while AmSpec reported a 0.3% decrease and ITS reported a 0.4% decrease [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. soybean export inspection volume as of the week ending October 23, 2025 was 1,061,375 tons, with market expectations of 1,000,000 - 1,500,000 tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 1,590,264 tons [1] - As of the week ending October 24, 2024, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 2,630,651 tons [1] - The cumulative U.S. soybean export inspection volume for this crop year was 6,715,111 tons, compared to 10,643,999 tons in the same period last year [1] - Brazil's 2025/26 season soybean planting rate reached 36% as of last Thursday, unchanged from the same period last year and up from 24% the previous week [1] - From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 1.63%, and oil extraction rate increased by 0.22% [1] - SGS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25, 2025 were 985,301 tons, a 23.79% increase from the same period last month [1] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25, 2025 were 1,182,216 tons, a 0.3% decrease from September [1] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25, 2025 were 1,283,814 tons, a 0.4% decrease from the same period last month [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products (bean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from October 21 - 27, 2025 are provided [5] Others - Information on precipitation in major producing countries, import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, and grease import profit are mentioned but no specific data is provided [1] - Information on grease basis, grease and oilseed price spreads on the futures market, and protein meal basis are mentioned but no specific data is provided [8][10][13]
油脂油料早报-20250923
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 00:48
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the current situation in the global oilseeds and oils market, including export, production, and import data, as well as policy changes and climate - related information [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Different Aspects 1. U.S. Soybean Data - As of the week ending September 18, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the estimated range. The previous week's volume was 821,809 tons (revised). The cumulative export inspection volume for the current crop year is 1,569,77 tons, compared to 1,246,429 tons in the same period last year [1] - As of the week ending September 21, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the expected 12%. The leaf - falling rate was 61% [1] 2. Argentina's Policy - Argentina's government announced the suspension of export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal to boost exports and increase dollar supply. The policy will be effective from Tuesday until October 31 or until the declared export value reaches $7 billion. The soybean export tax will drop from 26% to zero, soybean oil and meal from 24.5% to zero, and corn from 9.5% to zero [1] 3. Brazil's Soybean Export - Brazil exported 4,719,426.05 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of September, with an average daily export volume of 314,628.40 tons, an 8.20% increase compared to the same period last year [1] 4. Malaysia's Palm Oil Data - Different institutions reported different trends in Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20. ITS showed an 8.7% increase, AmSpec an 8.3% increase, and SGS a 16.1% decrease compared to the previous month. The production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 7.89% compared to the previous period [1] 5. China's Import Data - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 336,550.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.32% and a year - on - year increase of 16.54%. The main import sources were Indonesia and Malaysia [1] - China's rapeseed imports in August were 246,639.83 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.13% but a year - on - year decrease of 58.52%. The main source was Canada [1] - China's rapeseed meal imports in August were 213,385.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.56% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%. The main sources were India and the UAE [1] - China's rapeseed oil imports in August were 137,572.47 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.75% and a year - on - year increase of 18.68%. The main sources were Russia and the UAE [1] 6. Indonesia's Policy Consideration - Indonesia is considering introducing B45 as a transitional step before implementing B50 due to potential technical and economic obstacles that may delay the full implementation of B50 until after 2026 [1] 7. Price and Spread Data - The report also includes data on import crushing margins, import profits, spot prices, protein meal basis, oil basis, regional price spreads, and seasonal spreads for various oilseeds and oils products [2][4][6][8]
油脂油料早报-20250918
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:39
Group 1: Overnight Market Information - Canada's 2025 rapeseed production is expected to increase by 4.1% to 20 million tons due to a 6.2% increase in yield offsetting a 2.0% decline in harvest area [1] - In Saskatchewan, 2025 rapeseed production is expected to increase by 6.8% to 11.2 million tons with a 6.0% yield increase and a 0.8% area increase [1] - In Alberta, rapeseed production is expected to increase by 2.8% to 5.8 million tons due to a 6.1% yield increase despite a 3.1% area decline [1] - In Manitoba, rapeseed production is expected to decline by 2.2% to 2.9 million tons as a 9.6% area decline offsets an 8.2% yield increase [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15, 2025, decreased by 24.7% to 404,688 tons compared to the same period last month [1] - US 2025/26 soybean export sales for the week ending September 11 are expected to increase by 40 - 150 million tons [1] Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from September 11 - 17, 2025, are presented in a table [2] Group 3: Other Information - Information on protein meal basis, oil basis, and oil - seed futures price spreads is mentioned [3][6] - Information on main - producing country precipitation, imported soybean crushing profit, and oil import profit is mentioned [1]
油脂油料早报-20250821
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 02:34
Group 1: Report Core Views - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed crop output is expected to be 5.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast, with the forecast range between 5.4 - 6.3 million tons. The near - normal temperatures by October will support crop growth, but the cooling forecast from August 25 - 31 is worth attention due to possible light frost in some areas [1] - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20 increased by 13.6% compared to the same period last month, reaching 929,051 tons [1] - Indonesia plans to increase its crude palm oil annual output from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030 to meet the growing demand. To achieve this goal, BPDP has implemented human resource improvement plans and the government has launched a plantation revival plan [1] Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from August 14 - 20, 2025 are provided, showing price fluctuations during this period [1][8]
国家统计局:上半年农业(种植业)增加值同比增长3.7%
news flash· 2025-07-15 02:10
Core Insights - The agricultural (planting) value added in the first half of the year increased by 3.7% year-on-year [1] - The total summer grain production reached 149.74 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons or 0.1% compared to the previous year [1] - The total meat production (pork, beef, lamb, and poultry) was 48.43 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] Agricultural Production - Pork production increased by 1.3%, beef by 4.5%, and poultry by 7.4%, while lamb production decreased by 4.6% [1] - Milk production grew by 0.5%, and egg production increased by 1.5% [1] Livestock Statistics - By the end of the second quarter, the number of live pigs was 424.47 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] - In the first half of the year, the number of pigs slaughtered was 366.19 million, marking a growth of 0.6% [1]
民间出口商报告向墨西哥出口销售
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 04:12
Report Summary - There is no report industry investment rating provided [1] Core Viewpoints -民间出口商向墨西哥出口销售119,746吨大豆,2025/2026市场年度付运 [1] -受计划中的关税上调影响,阿根廷出口商6月迄今已出口610万吨大豆及其衍生品,较五年均值水平激增22%,阿根廷政府年初暂时调降的大豆出口关税政策将于6月到期,届时大豆关税将从26%上升至33%,豆油和豆粕关税税率均将由24.5%上调至31% [1] - 2025年加拿大油菜籽种植面积下降,大草原地区三省的油菜籽播种面积均缩减,可能是由于土壤湿度和持续的贸易问题等因素造成 [1] - 加拿大统计局大幅上调去年的油菜籽产量数据,2024年油菜产量从1,780万吨增加至1,918万吨,表明全球最大油菜籽出口国的油菜籽供应将比最初预期的更健康 [1] Summary by Related Catalog Soybean Export - 民间出口商向墨西哥出口销售119,746吨大豆,2025/2026市场年度付运 [1] - 受关税上调影响,阿根廷出口商6月迄今已出口610万吨大豆及其衍生品,较五年均值激增22%,关税政策到期后大豆关税将从26%升至33%,豆油和豆粕关税从24.5%升至31% [1] Rapeseed Planting - 2025年加拿大油菜籽种植面积下降,大草原地区三省均缩减,萨斯喀彻温省下降0.5%,阿尔伯塔省下降2.8%,马尼托巴省下降9.2% [1] - 加拿大统计局上调2024年油菜籽产量数据,从1,780万吨增至1,918万吨,有交易商认为今年春季油菜籽面积将超预测的2150万英亩 [1] Spot Price - 报告列出2025年6月23 - 27日豆粕江苏、菜粕广东、豆油江苏、棕榈油广州、菜油江苏的现货价格 [2] Basis - 提及蛋白粕基差和油脂基差,但未给出具体内容 [3] Futures Spread - 提及油脂油料盘面价差,但未给出具体内容 [5]
油脂油料早报-20250606
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 05:19
Group 1: Overnight Market Information - From May 22 - 29, US soybean export sales net increased by 19.79 million tons, with current - year sales net increasing by 19.43 million tons (33% higher than the previous week and 30% lower than the four - week average), and new sales of 20.81 million tons for the current year and 0.35 million tons for the next year. Exports to China had a net decrease of 0.11 million tons. Export shipments were 30.86 million tons (47% higher than the previous week and 8% higher than the four - week average), with 6.5 million tons shipped to China [1]. - From May 22 - 29, US bean meal export sales net increased by 26.49 million tons, with current - year sales net increasing by 25.47 million tons (40% lower than the previous week and 14% lower than the four - week average). New sales were 28.26 million tons for the current year and 1.02 million tons for the next year. Export shipments were 23.85 million tons (12% lower than the previous week and 6% lower than the four - week average) [1]. - Brazil exported 14,099,744.73 tons of soybeans in May, with a daily average of 671,416.42 tons, a 5% increase from the daily average in May last year [1]. - Rosario Grain Exchange and Buenos Aires Exchange stated that Argentina's soybean yield this year is better than expected, but the harvest is delayed. About 88.7% of the soybeans have been harvested, and the 2024/25 harvest is expected to be about 50 million tons [1]. - MPOA data showed that Malaysia's crude palm oil production in May increased by 3.07% month - on - month, with different increases in different regions [1]. Group 2: Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products (soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from May 29 to June 5 showed some fluctuations [2]. Group 3: Others - There are protein meal basis and grease basis, but specific data is not provided [3]. - There is information about grease and oil futures spreads, but specific data is not provided [5].