Core Insights - The weight loss market, driven by the rising global obesity rates, is emerging as one of the fastest-growing sectors in the pharmaceutical industry, with GLP-1 targeted drugs being the current stars of research and commercialization, potentially exceeding a market size of $100 billion [1] Group 1: Clinical Innovation - There are significant unmet clinical needs in GLP-1 weight loss drugs, including weight rebound after discontinuation, long-term patient adherence challenges, and gastrointestinal side effects, driving companies towards differentiated innovation [2] - Innovations in administration methods, such as oral formulations and ultra-long-acting injectables, are becoming focal points of competition, with companies that can offer more convenient and long-lasting delivery systems likely to create unique competitive advantages [2] - Expanding indications beyond weight loss to include treatment potentials for metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MASH), cardiovascular diseases, and chronic kidney disease can open new value growth points and avoid homogenized competition in a single indication [2] Group 2: Global Integration - Companies like Heng Rui Medicine, Fosun Pharma, and others have completed multiple licensing deals related to GLP-1 products, with total licensing amounts reaching several billion dollars, reflecting international market recognition of Chinese pharmaceutical R&D capabilities [3] - The movement of more domestic GLP-1 drugs into the global market is expected to change the competitive landscape [3] Group 3: Market Channel Transformation - Unlike PD-1 inhibitors that heavily rely on hospital markets, weight loss drugs are creating new commercial channel models due to a large patient base and chronic disease management attributes [4] - A unique "dual market structure" is forming, where products like semaglutide and tirzepatide are entering national health insurance through diabetes indications, while high-end differentiated products retain ample space in the self-pay segment, providing a diverse survival environment for various products [4] - The rise of online channels is breaking traditional hospital bottlenecks, allowing innovative pharmaceutical companies, especially emerging brands, to reach and serve a vast user base more directly and quickly, establishing brand recognition and patient foundations [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities' report indicates that East China Pharmaceutical's dual-target GLP-1 is progressing smoothly, with a positive outlook on the weight loss market development [1] Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - The company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhongmei East China, has developed an innovative long-acting agonist HDM1005, targeting both GLP-1 and GIP receptors, which has shown positive results in Phase II clinical trials for weight management in China [1] - The weight loss effects of HDM1005 were significant, with the 0.5mg, 1.0mg, 2.0mg, and 4.0mg groups showing weight changes of -7.47%, -9.73%, -13.31%, and -13.28% respectively after 22 weeks, compared to a -2.46% change in the placebo group [1] - In addition to weight reduction, HDM1005 also demonstrated significant improvements in other cardiovascular and metabolic indicators, including glucose metabolism, blood pressure, and blood lipids [1] Group 2: Company Positioning - The company is recognized as a leading domestic prescription drug enterprise, with a rich product pipeline and industry-leading channel and brand capabilities [1] - The company is expected to achieve coordinated growth through both internal and external development strategies [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the successful progress of the dual-target GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonist HDM1005, developed by the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, in a Phase II clinical trial for weight management in China [3][4] - The weight loss effects of HDM1005 are significant, with weight reductions of -7.47%, -9.73%, -13.31%, and -13.28% observed in different dosage groups compared to a placebo group [4] - The safety profile of HDM1005 is favorable, with most adverse events being mild to moderate, and no serious adverse events related to treatment reported [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 45.187 billion yuan, 47.721 billion yuan, and 50.358 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.906 billion yuan, 4.498 billion yuan, and 5.022 billion yuan [4][7] - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.68X, 15.35X, and 13.75X respectively [4][7] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic prescription drug enterprise with a rich product pipeline and strong brand capabilities [4]

Group 1 - Dingdang Health (09886) saw a stock price increase of over 5%, reaching a rise of 6.82% to HKD 0.94, with a trading volume of HKD 5.2407 million [1] - Recently, Dingdang Health announced a partnership with Eli Lilly, expanding the availability of Tirzepatide injection (Mounjaro) to pharmacies in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, following its introduction in Beijing [1] - According to Tianfeng Securities, over 2.6 billion people globally were affected by overweight/obesity in 2020, indicating a growing weight loss market, with Eli Lilly being a leading company in this sector [1] Group 2 - Dingdang Health aims to leverage Eli Lilly's innovative drug products and health education capabilities, combined with its own extensive smart pharmacy network, end-to-end intelligent logistics system, and professional healthcare team, to provide a comprehensive health solution for overweight/obese and diabetic populations [1] - The collaboration is expected to enhance medication accessibility and health management levels for targeted demographics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dingtang Health (09886) has seen a stock price increase of over 5%, currently up 6.82% to HKD 0.94, with a trading volume of HKD 5.24 million, following a partnership announcement with Eli Lilly [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Dingtang Health has officially launched the injection of Tirzepatide (Mufengda) in pharmacies in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, expanding its collaboration with Eli Lilly beyond Beijing [1] - The partnership aims to provide a one-stop health solution for overweight/obese and diabetic populations, enhancing medication accessibility and health management levels [1] Group 2: Market Context - According to Tianfeng Securities, over 2.6 billion people globally were affected by overweight/obesity in 2020, indicating a growing weight loss market [1] - Eli Lilly is recognized as a leading company in the weight loss sector, which aligns with the strategic goals of Dingtang Health [1]

Summary of the Conference Call for 博瑞医药 Company Overview - **Company**: 博瑞医药 (Borui Pharmaceutical) - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical, specifically focusing on innovative drugs and weight loss treatments Key Points and Arguments Clinical Development and Pipeline - **BGM0,504 Injection**: Phase III clinical trials expected to complete in Q1 2026, with potential market launch by the end of 2026 or early 2027. The 15mg dosage group showed a weight loss of 19.78% over 24 weeks, outperforming the 11.96% of tirzepatide [2][3] - **BGM1,812**: A long-acting amylin analog, currently in preclinical stages, showing stronger agonistic effects on Amylin and calcitonin receptors compared to existing drugs, with potential to be a best-in-class treatment [2][3] - **BGM0,504 Oral Tablets**: Received CDE IND acceptance, expected to enter clinical trials within the year, which will gradually reflect in the company's valuation [2][5] Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: Steady revenue increase from 2018 to 2024, with a projected fluctuation in Q1 2025 due to high base effects from Q1 2024 and reduced demand for oseltamivir due to lower flu incidence. Anticipated continuous growth as flu normalizes and company transitions [2][6] Market Potential - **Weight Loss Market**: Rapid development expected, with projections indicating the Chinese market could reach 68 billion RMB by 2030. The sales of semaglutide have exceeded 30 billion USD, indicating a vast market that can accommodate multiple major products [2][8] Innovation and Technology - **GLP-1 Field Progress**: Significant advancements in GLP-1 area, with BGM0,504 injection showing excellent data. The oral formulation is also promising, with no existing oral dual-target peptides in development globally as of July 2025 [10] - **Macro Technology Platform**: The company holds a stake in Shenzhen Aoli Bio, which possesses a superior Macro technology platform compared to the SNACK technology used by semaglutide, enhancing drug stability and efficacy [10] Valuation and Investment Potential - **Pipeline Valuation**: The innovative drug pipeline, including BGM0,504 and BGM1,812, has not been fully reflected in the company's market valuation. Peak sales for BGM0,504 are projected to reach 5-10 billion RMB, indicating significant upside potential [4][12] Competitive Landscape - **Generic Drug Business**: Involvement in generic drugs, particularly high-difficulty generics, benefiting from cost-saving policies. The company is focusing on antifungal, antiviral, and immunosuppressive categories, with stable demand in antifungal products [13][14] Technical Platforms - **Multiple Technical Platforms**: The company has several platforms, including chiral drug platforms and non-biological macromolecule platforms, with products like carboxymaltose iron expected to launch by the end of the year, contributing to profits [15] Additional Important Insights - **Leadership**: Chairman 袁建栋 has a strong academic background and leads a capable R&D team, recognized for overcoming significant synthetic challenges [7] - **Market Dynamics**: The GLP-1 market is expected to see significant transactions in the near future, with potential record-breaking deals anticipated as companies catch up in this lucrative sector [11]