证 券 研 究 报 告 荣盛石化（002493）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 盈利短期承压，静待炼化复苏 目标价：13.53 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报，2025 年上半年实现收入 1486.29 亿元，同比-7.83%， 实现归母净利润 6.02 亿元，同比-29.82%。其中 Q2 实现营收 736.54 亿元，同 比/环比分别-8.12%/-1.76%；实现归母净利润 0.14 亿元，同比/环比分别- 95.52%/-97.67%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 326,475 | 297,010 | 309,304 | 324,456 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.4% | -9.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 724 | 2,301 | 4,256 | 5,291 | | 同比增速(%) | -37.4% | 217.6% | 85.0% | ...

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry in China is facing structural overcapacity challenges due to peak demand and declining refined oil needs, leading to excess refining capacity and overproduction of chemicals like ethylene and aromatics [1] - The average profit percentile for major chemical products in the first half of 2025 is expected to be below 50%, with PDH profits dropping to a historical low of 0% [1] - The industry needs to eliminate outdated capacity and tighten new project approvals to achieve high-quality transformation [1] Group 2 - The refining sector is experiencing peak demand and decline in refined oil, necessitating a net elimination of capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan, rather than just controlling new capacity [2] - The ethylene sector is facing overcapacity due to new oil conversion capacities and requires control over new capacity and project approvals, as well as the elimination of small projects that do not meet energy and carbon standards [2] - Unlike coal, which may not have absolute overcapacity but requires control over operating rates, the petrochemical sector is experiencing overcapacity that necessitates capacity reduction and new project approval controls [2]