1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil: Initial Pricing of Bearish Factors, Focus on Future Production; Soybean Oil: Sino-US Relations Disturbance, Focus on New US Soybean Crop Suspense" and was released on June 8, 2025 [1][2] 2. Previous Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - The bearish impact of Malaysia's unexpected production increase from April to May was gradually digested by the market. In the short term, there were no obvious contradictions, and it mainly fluctuated following the oil and fat sector affected by crude oil, China-Canada, and Sino-US relations. The palm oil 09 contract rose 0.62% last week [2] Soybean Oil - The driving force in the soybean market was not obvious, and supply issues were downplayed. However, the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents in the second half of the week brought bullish sentiment to the US soybean market, leading to a strong rebound in soybean oil and soybean meal. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.31% last week [2] 3. This Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - Malaysia's production recovery from April to May will bring forward a 2 million - ton inventory level. Indonesia's inventory is expected to accumulate to over 3 million tons in April, so the inventory in the second quarter in Indonesia and Malaysia may return to the normal level of 5.5 million tons. There is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents, so the origin's quotation may loosen in the third quarter [3] - Although it is judged that there is still un - released pressure in the fundamentals, there is strong support during the decline. Due to macro - allocation, oil hedging, and early layout for the second half of the year, investors' long - allocation of palm oil means that the current production increase in Malaysia from April to May cannot push the palm oil price down [3] - After the market has fully priced in the previous production increase, further bearish factors need to be seen, such as less - than - expected purchases by China and India in July or Malaysia's production in June - July challenging historical highs. Malaysia's inventory at the end of May is expected to reach over 2 million tons [3] - Indonesia's production in March increased by 16% month - on - month. If the production continues to recover significantly from April to May, it will help release the seasonal pressure. Recently, Indonesia's refining profit has increased, and export demand has recovered, but the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference has not improved significantly, and the supply is gradually widening [3] - The export taxes of crude palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia are both reduced in June, so the importing regions' import sentiment will improve in June. India's palm oil purchases in May - June reached over 1.5 million tons, and the consumption expectation in the production increase season is guaranteed. China's palm oil purchases for the July shipment are relatively small. If the monthly average purchase cannot reach 350,000 tons, the origin will face inventory pressure again in the third quarter [3] - The market's pricing expectation for palm oil still comes from the production recovery situation. The bullish factors such as the digestion of Malaysia's previous production increase, the improvement of export in June, and the possible decline in production in June - July attract long - positions to layout in advance. The further downward momentum of palm oil prices comes from continuous over - expected inventory accumulation. The 9 - 1 spread can be intervened when it enters a low - valuation range, and the 7 - 9 spread can be short - sold at high levels [3] Soybean Oil - There is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents per pound. If it does not find a direction soon, it will be difficult for international oil and fat prices to break through. 45Z and SRE mainly increase fluctuations, and RVO is needed to determine its value. It is considered that the probability of the final RVO figure being above 5.25 billion gallons is small, and the demand boost compared with 2024 will be less than 500,000 tons [5] - In terms of international oil and fat supply, attention should be paid to when the high soybean - palm oil price difference will reflect the export pressure of international soybean oil. The upward performance of US soybean oil may be restricted by the actual situation. If the operating rate remains at the low level in March, the inventory will become neutral by July [5] - The discount of Brazilian soybeans has widened compared with that of US soybeans, indicating less selling pressure from farmers, which will support the soybean sector. The tight new - crop balance sheet in the US does not allow much room for weather deterioration. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and the possibility of an over - estimated trend yield, as well as the expected change in the palm oil inventory inflection point and more certainty in the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5] 4. Overall View - For palm oil, the previous bearish factors of Malaysia's production increase have been gradually digested, exports from the origin are expected to improve in June, and the risk of production decline in June - July attracts long - positions to layout in advance. The further downward momentum of palm oil prices comes from continuous over - expected inventory accumulation. The 9 - 1 spread can be intervened when it enters a low - valuation range, and the 7 - 9 spread can be short - sold at high levels. Attention should be paid to the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference and the inventory pressure implied by the origin's export sentiment [6] - For soybean oil, there is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents per pound. If it does not find a direction soon, it will be difficult for international oil and fat prices to break through. The tight new - crop balance sheet in the US does not allow much room for weather deterioration. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and the possibility of an over - estimated trend yield, and the impact of Sino - US relations on the domestic soybean market. Also, observe the expected change in the palm oil inventory inflection point and more certainty in the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [6] 5. Market Data Futures Price and Volume - Palm oil main - continuous contract: opened at 8,100 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,250 yuan/ton, a low of 8,064 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,110 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The trading volume was 2,478,112 lots, a decrease of 604,662 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 419,221 lots, an increase of 33,611 lots [8] - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: opened at 7,612 yuan/ton, reached a high of 7,748 yuan/ton, a low of 7,612 yuan/ton, and closed at 7,738 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The trading volume was 3,082,774 lots, a decrease of 400,894 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 572,787 lots, a decrease of 42,275 lots [8] Spread and Basis - The vegetable - soybean oil 09 spread was 1,402 yuan/ton, down 18.01% from last week; the soybean - palm oil 09 spread was - 372 yuan/ton, up 11.85% [8] - The palm oil (South China) basis to the 09 contract was 380 yuan/ton; the soybean oil (Jiangsu) basis declined [14] Inventory - related - Malaysia's palm oil production in May is expected to reach a historical high in the same period, and the inventory is expected to continue to rise. Indonesia's inventory in the second quarter is expected to rise rapidly [10][13] - The ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,320,914 tons, an increase of 17.9% compared with the same period last month [13]