证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 中线方向三天两变，一颗红心、两手准备 ——A 股市场运行周报第 72 期 核心观点 ❑ 本周行情归因 （1）日本央行加息靴子落地，风险偏好压制因素解除；（2）美国 CPI 数据低于市 场预期，为美联储货币宽松政策提供了更多想象空间。 ❑ 下周行情展望 经历本周区间震荡后，市场在中线上仍处于"未分胜负"的状态，目前仍无法判 断"春季攻势"是否已经启动。但值得注意的是，本轮最晚见顶的上证、创业板 指已经分别整理 6 周、8 周，而最早见顶的恒生科技、科创 50 则已经调整 11 周，其中恒生科技指数本周新低后还出现日线 MACD 底背离迹象。这意味着， A 股本轮中线调整结构正在逐渐完善，而部分港股指数已经落入"击球区"。展 望后市，在"棋眼"券商拉出大阳线、确定大盘中线方向之前，市场或维持胜负 难分、区间震荡的格局。但考虑到全市场调整逐渐充分，未来交易策略的重点将 从"防波动、降弹性"，逐渐转变成为"找买点、伺机动"，对于调整充分的指数 或行业，一旦落入"击球区"，则应积极对待。 配置方面，基于"区间震荡方向难测，一颗红心两手准备"的判断：择时方面， 建议持仓等待 ...

Group 1 - The market risk has significantly released, and the Chinese stock market is entering a favorable zone for investment according to Guotai Junan Securities [1] - Recent rapid decline in the Chinese stock market and panic selling are attributed to year-end profit-taking and reduced positions by investors, alongside external factors like the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and increased volatility in the US stock market [1] - Guotai Junan Securities maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese market despite the prevailing cautious sentiment, indicating that the stock index is in a favorable position for investment [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities suggests that the volatility of global risk assets is primarily a liquidity issue, but fundamentally stems from an over-reliance on a single narrative regarding AI [2] - The release of US non-farm payroll data and the downshift in Fed rate cut expectations have triggered a correction in high asset valuations, amplifying concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure in North America [2] - The current market environment presents an opportunity for investors to reallocate to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as the early release of risks allows for strategic positioning ahead of 2026 [2]