板块方面，大消费板块涨幅靠前。其中，思摩尔国际 6969.HK 涨 8.99%，名创 优品 9896.HK 涨 6.18%，毛戈平 1318.HK 涨 5.29%，达势股份 1405.HK 涨 5.21%， 周黑鸭 1458.HK 涨 4.46%，古茗 1364.HK 涨 3.86%，蜜雪集团（02097.HK）涨 2.9%，青岛啤酒股份 168.HK 涨 2.82%，茶百道 2555.HK 涨 1.75%。商务部等多 部门印发《2026「乐购新春」春节特别活动方案》，鼓励各地增加春节期间消费 品以旧换新补贴数量，加大线下实体零售支持力度，在一定程度上提振了市场 信心。 港股晨报 2026 年 2 月 6 日 国投证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国投证券国际视点：热门交易全面退潮，裁员潮引发衰 退担忧 昨日，港股三大指数集体录得上涨。其中，恒生指数涨 0.14%，国企指数涨 0.5%， 恒生科技指数涨 0.74%。大市成交金额 3,151.12 亿元，主板总卖空金额 650.73 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率为 22.99%。南向资金北水方面，港股通交易 净流入 249.77 亿港元。港股通 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is facing a potential valuation correction due to changing investor sentiment and geopolitical tensions, with a notable increase in the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $8,000 by June 2026 to 30% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - Bitcoin reached a high of $9,500 but has since fallen below $9,100 due to renewed risk aversion in global financial markets, influenced by strong rhetoric regarding international trade tariffs, especially concerning Europe [1][3]. - The pricing data for options indicates a shift towards caution among investors, with a significant concentration of put options on decentralized trading platform Derive.xyz in the $7,500 to $8,000 range, suggesting traders are actively buying "insurance" against potential sharp declines [1][3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Volatility - The comparison of bullish and bearish forces is showing subtle changes, with the activity of put options significantly exceeding that of call options, indicating greater market concern about prices reverting to levels seen in April 2025, with only a 19% probability of rising to $12,000 [2][4]. - The volatility mechanism shift triggered by geopolitical factors has not yet been fully absorbed in the spot market, indicating that the current negative skew is not just a reflection of sentiment but also a warning of future liquidity risks [5]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in the options market, particularly positions with strike prices around $8,000, as the wide fluctuations in Bitcoin's price are likely to continue until macroeconomic uncertainties are resolved [5]. - Understanding the skew logic in the options market is deemed crucial for managing downside risks in digital asset portfolios during this sensitive period [5].

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant speculative rebound as of January 2026, following a 65% decline in 2025, indicating a return of risk appetite among investors [1][2][3] Market Performance - The market capitalization of Meme coins has rebounded from a low of $35 billion in late December to over $47.7 billion recently, showcasing a remarkable short-term increase [3] - Trading activity in the Meme coin sector has surged, with daily trading volume peaking at $8.7 billion, reflecting a 300% increase [3] Investor Behavior - The resurgence in liquidity is attributed more to a reallocation of market positions and the return of retail investors rather than a fundamental reassessment of the assets [3] - Meme coins are acting as leading indicators during the shift in market sentiment from "extreme fear" to "neutral" [2][4] Market Risks - The current market dynamics are characterized by high reflexivity, suggesting that if mainstream assets do not maintain consistent trading volumes, the rebound in Meme coins may only be temporary [2][4] - There are ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including fluctuations in macro policies, global geopolitical developments, and potential liquidity tightening, which could hinder the sustained upward movement of risk assets [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [8][9][10] - The outlook for stock index options is "oscillating" [9] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed down, and the hedging force has taken profit. The market is waiting for further catalysts to rise. It is necessary to observe policy signals and the sustainability of the main line [3][9] - The sentiment in the stock index options market has improved with reduced volatility. Attention should be paid to the lower support level. For those with stock positions, continue the covered call strategy, and for those without positions, consider selling put options after confirming the support [4][9] - Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank's operations have maintained the balance of the short - term capital market. Although the bond market direction is unclear, it is expected to remain oscillating with a slight upward bias in the future [5][10][11] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The current month's basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed at - 12.85, - 6.16, - 41.37, and - 61.21 points respectively, with changes of - 40.44, - 20.91, - 98.36, and - 123.71 points compared to the previous trading day [8] - The inter - month spreads (current month - next month) of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 15.8, 2.8, 50, and 65.4 points respectively, with环比 changes of - 37, - 21.4, - 54.4, and - 46.6 points [8] - The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 7338, - 5627, - 12741, and - 21593 lots respectively [8] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and oscillated on Monday, and the market stopped falling. The hedging sentiment eased. The decline of US technology stocks slowed down, reducing the domestic liquidity pressure. High - beta sectors led the rebound, and the short - selling profit - taking in the futures market promoted the convergence of the basis discount [3][9] - The secondary upward movement of the market still awaits event or main - line signals. Tactically, continue the dumbbell configuration in the short - term and observe the window for layout switching. The operation suggestion is to combine the dividend ETF with long positions in IM [3][9] Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued the defensive sentiment at the opening but stabilized in the afternoon. The CSI 1000 rose 1.26%. The trading volume in the options market was 8344 million yuan, a 46.10% decrease from the previous day. The implied volatility index decreased by an average of 1.53%. The short - term defensive behavior in the market weakened, and there was a new trend of selling options entering the market. Multiple varieties' position PCRs hit the bottom [4][9] - For those with stock positions, continue the covered call strategy to increase returns. For those without positions, considering the high skewness level of each variety, sell put options after confirming the lower support [4][9] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter was 79246, 46495, 23207, and 64907 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 23755, - 17953, - 6065, and - 32915 lots. The positions were 68863, 42749, 11765, and 47308 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 31002, - 12913, - 10325, and - 12009 lots [10] - The current - quarter to next - quarter spreads of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.170, - 0.105, 0.042, and 0.180 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.020, - 0.055, - 0.008, and - 0.020 yuan [10] - The cross - variety spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, and T*3 - TL in the current quarter were 103.275, 99.030, 301.335, and 209.755 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.005, - 0.035, - 0.075, and 0.035 yuan [10] - The current - quarter basis of T, TF, TS, and TL was 0.023, - 0.022, - 0.009, and 0.115 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.064, - 0.050, 0.000, and - 0.049 yuan [10] - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of 5.57 billion yuan, and the MLF operation had a net investment of 10 billion yuan. The capital market remained balanced. The stock - bond seesaw effect was evident, but the bond market direction is unclear due to differences in expectations for loose monetary policy and the undetermined fund fee regulations. It is expected that the bond market will remain oscillating with a slight upward bias [5][10][11] - For trend strategies, expect the market to oscillate with a slight upward bias. For hedging strategies, pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. For basis strategies, focus on positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening. For curve strategies, appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [11] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week includes US PPI, retail sales, GDP, PCE price index, China's industrial enterprise profits, and the EU's economic sentiment index [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The installed capacity of solar power and wind power increased significantly. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [13] - Affected by the decline in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered on November 24 [13] - On November 25, the central bank carried out a 1 - year MLF operation of 1 trillion yuan with a net investment of 10 billion yuan [13]

Group 1 - The market risk has significantly released, and the Chinese stock market is entering a favorable zone for investment according to Guotai Junan Securities [1] - Recent rapid decline in the Chinese stock market and panic selling are attributed to year-end profit-taking and reduced positions by investors, alongside external factors like the cooling of Fed rate cut expectations and increased volatility in the US stock market [1] - Guotai Junan Securities maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese market despite the prevailing cautious sentiment, indicating that the stock index is in a favorable position for investment [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities suggests that the volatility of global risk assets is primarily a liquidity issue, but fundamentally stems from an over-reliance on a single narrative regarding AI [2] - The release of US non-farm payroll data and the downshift in Fed rate cut expectations have triggered a correction in high asset valuations, amplifying concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure in North America [2] - The current market environment presents an opportunity for investors to reallocate to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as the early release of risks allows for strategic positioning ahead of 2026 [2]

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific markets experienced a significant decline, with Japan's Nikkei index dropping over 3%, led by major stocks like SoftBank and Sony [1][2] - The A-share market followed suit, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62%, Shenzhen Component down 2.54%, and the ChiNext Index plummeting 3.99% [2] Core Reasons for Decline - Geopolitical tensions and economic disturbances are at the forefront, with the U.S. initiating a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors, prompting retaliatory measures from China [3] - Political risks in Japan, particularly concerning fiscal expansion proposals, have raised concerns about debt levels and triggered capital outflows from Japanese stocks [3] Market Structure and Valuation Pressure - High valuation sectors, particularly in A-shares like semiconductors and new energy, are facing sell-offs due to previous excessive price increases, with companies like SMIC trading at over 200 times earnings [4] - The sensitivity of leveraged funds is heightened, with financing balances around 2.4 trillion, leading to increased liquidity risks as some brokerages lower their margin rates [5] Global Liquidity Tightening Expectations - Delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have strengthened the U.S. dollar, increasing short-term capital outflows from foreign investments, particularly affecting northbound capital [6] A-share Structural Divergence - The sectors leading the decline include technology growth stocks, particularly semiconductors and AI hardware, which have seen significant capital withdrawal [8] - Conversely, defensive assets such as banks, insurance, and high-dividend sectors like liquor and coal have attracted capital inflows [9] Short-term Risks and Opportunities - Technology stocks remain under pressure, particularly in the semiconductor and AI hardware sectors, as they need to digest valuation bubbles amid foreign capital withdrawal [11] - Low-valuation defensive sectors, such as banks and public utilities, are becoming safe havens, supported by expectations of policy backing [12] Long-term Outlook - The core logic remains unchanged, with clear policy support through domestic monetary easing and accelerated special bond issuance, alongside ongoing domestic semiconductor and AI advancements [13] - A-shares are showing increased independence, with resilience observed on October 13, indicating potential opportunities for quality assets amid external shocks [14] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to avoid high-valuation thematic stocks lacking performance support, particularly those with concentrated financing [15] - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, combining long-term technology investments with defensive sectors to hedge against risks [16] - Attention should be paid to third-quarter earnings reports, with companies showing performance growth and reasonable valuations, such as those in the photovoltaic and power grid sectors, likely to lead rebounds [17]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Expectations - Global inflation and tightening monetary policy have led to increased concerns about liquidity, putting pressure on risk assets such as stocks and bonds, indirectly affecting fund performance [3] - Domestic CPI data for March fell below expectations, raising doubts about the strength of economic recovery and leading to downward adjustments in profit expectations for certain industries [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Conflicts - Recent tensions in the Middle East and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict have driven up prices of commodities like oil, increasing global supply chain uncertainties and heightening investor risk aversion [5] Group 3: Industry and Policy Adjustments - Regulatory changes have intensified scrutiny on certain sectors, such as real estate and platform economy, causing significant declines in related sectors like Chinese concept stocks and real estate bonds, which in turn drag down the net value of related thematic funds [6] - Rumors of a "fund fee reform" could further compress management fee income, raising concerns about the industry's profit model [6] - High-performing sectors in Q1, such as technology and new energy, have experienced profit-taking, leading to a shift of funds towards defensive assets like consumer goods and utilities, putting short-term pressure on growth-oriented funds [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - A wave of redemptions triggered by net value declines has forced fund managers to sell holdings, exacerbating market downturns, particularly in small-cap stocks and less liquid bonds [8] - Since March, foreign capital has continuously reduced holdings in A-shares, with a cumulative net outflow exceeding 20 billion, negatively impacting the performance of blue-chip stocks and the overall market index [8] Group 5: Short-term Technical Factors - The end of the quarter has led to portfolio adjustments by institutions, amplifying market volatility [8] - The derivatives market has seen a chain reaction with expanded index futures discounts and soaring options volatility, intensifying market panic [8]

Group 1 - The core concern is that investors are overly complacent regarding the upcoming U.S. trade tariff deadline on August 1, with the market currently pricing in a perfect scenario [1] - There are uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and technical indicators showing overbought conditions, which could lead to a valuation correction in the market [1] - The market has seen significant gains, with the S&P 500 index rising 16% and the Nasdaq index increasing 21% over the past three months [2] Group 2 - The chief investment officer of Verdence Capital Advisors, Megan Horneman, remains bullish in the long term, viewing market pullbacks as investment opportunities, particularly favoring international stocks [1] - Despite high valuation levels, international stocks are considered relatively cheap compared to the U.S. market, indicating a potential rotation of funds into these assets [1] - Trader Guy Adami expressed concerns about the market being somewhat bubble-like, primarily driven by retail investors [2]