转自：新华财经 2026年1月9日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较1月4日分别变动-4.35BP、 8.4BP、8.54BP、3.04BP、2.77BP、3.55BP、4.95BP、5.5BP。 新华财经北京1月12日电（王柘）上周（2026年1月5日至1月9日）债市在多重利空压力下迎来剧烈调整，权益和商品市场联袂上行，沪 指站上4100点，通胀数据温和回升，对政府债券发行规模和期限的担忧也在开年得到验证，央行公告买债规模不及预期，基金年末冲量 行为更加剧了短期抛压。10年期国债收益率周初连续三个交易日上行，逼近1.90%一线后方有所企稳。同时，债市短端亦走出补跌行 情，收益率曲线整体平坦化上移。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 1月4日 | 1月9日 | 受动BP | | 0 | 1.051 | 1.117 | 6.6 | | 0.08 | 1.2037 | 1.27 | 6.63 | | 0. 17 | 1.2501 | 1.27 | 1.99 | | 0 ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan Chase has withdrawn nearly $350 billion from its Federal Reserve account since the beginning of 2023, reallocating most of these funds into U.S. government bonds as a defensive strategy against potential profit erosion from interest rate cuts [1][5] - The bank's balance at the Federal Reserve has plummeted from $409 billion at the end of 2022 to just $63 billion by the third quarter of 2023, while its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities have surged from $231 billion to $450 billion [1][5] - This strategic shift reflects how the largest U.S. bank is preparing for the end of a period of easy profitability, where it previously earned returns on cash held at the Federal Reserve while paying low interest to most depositors [1] Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase is proactively moving funds from the Federal Reserve to U.S. Treasuries to lock in higher yields in anticipation of declining interest rates [5][9] - The bank's actions have been significant enough to offset the total changes in deposits at the Federal Reserve for over 4,000 other banks, which saw total deposits drop from $1.9 trillion to approximately $1.6 trillion since the end of 2023 [9] - The Federal Reserve's interest payments on reserves have surged, with projected payments reaching $186.5 billion in 2024, raising questions about the effectiveness of this policy [9][12] Group 2 - JPMorgan Chase has not disclosed the duration of its U.S. Treasury investments or the extent to which it uses interest rate swap contracts to manage risk [5] - The bank's stable deposit base allowed it to benefit from returns on cash held at the Federal Reserve during high interest periods, contrasting with competitors like U.S. Bank, which faced significant losses [5] - In 2024, JPMorgan Chase is expected to receive $15 billion in interest payments from the Federal Reserve, contributing to its total projected profit of $58.5 billion for the year [12]