西部证券指出，7月美国非农就业数据大幅低于预期且前值下修，导致市场对9月美联储降息预期显著升 温。随着美债收益率骤降，10年期美债收益率下降17bp至4.22%。国内债市方面，10年期国债收益率同 步下行3bp至1.71%，显示货币政策空间可能进一步打开。这种宏观环境使得利率债配置价值凸显，尤 其当美联储重启降息周期后，国内政策窗口期或将带动债市延续走强。 十年国债ETF（511260）跟踪上证10年期国债指数，选取剩余期限7到10年且在上交所挂牌的国债作为 样本，久期恒定，目前组合平均久期为7.6年。从过往表现来看，十年国债ETF（511260）成立以来净值 屡创新高，历史业绩持续稳健。根据基金定期报告，截止二季度末，近1年回报率达5.88%，近3年回报 率达16.13%，近5年回报率达22.41%，成立至今累计回报率达36.68%。 2 、交易费率低：ETF交易费率低，提高资金使用效率。 3 、持仓透明：ETF每日公布PCF清单，持仓透明。 4 、可进行质押回购：当市场其他资产有投资机会、恰巧手头资金不够充裕时，投资者就可以通过ETF 质押换取资金，来参与其他类资产的投资，到期时再赎回ETF即可。 风险提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera has shown a slight decline recently, but has experienced an overall increase in the past two weeks, indicating a mixed performance in the bond market [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 11, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera is down 0.65% with a latest price of 110.58 yuan [2]. - Over the past two weeks, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.76% [2]. - The ETF has a recent trading volume of 26.14 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows a slight decline in the China bond yield due to stable CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, suggesting moderate inflation pressure [2]. - The central bank's large-scale reverse repos have enhanced market liquidity expectations, while the stable credit rating from S&P supports market confidence [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Performance - The 30-year Treasury ETF has seen a net outflow of 66.78 million yuan recently, but has had a net inflow of 598.40 million yuan over the last ten trading days [3]. - The ETF's net asset value has increased by 9.67% over the past year, ranking 7th out of 416 in its category [3]. - The fund has a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [3]. Group 4: Risk and Fees - The management fee for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [3]. - The fund has a tracking error of 0.043% over the past two months, indicating a close alignment with the underlying index [4].

消息面上，财政部、税务总局于8月1日联合发布公告，明确自2025年8月8日起对新发行的国债、地方政 府债券及金融债券利息收入恢复征收增值税，实行新老划断政策，此前已发行债券利息收入继续免征增 值税直至到期。同期，中国人民银行在2025年下半年工作会议中提出继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，强 调保持流动性充裕，并推进债券市场"科技板"建设及科技创新债券风险分担工具使用，以扩大科技创新 债券发行规模。 广发证券指出，8月1日财政部、税务总局发文恢复征收国债等债券利息收入的增值税，引发市场波动， 当日尾盘10年期国债利率先上后下，老券性价比上升。短期来看，该政策利空8月8日及之后新发债券投 资票息收入，或引导银行资产配置向信贷倾斜，但在有效需求偏弱背景下，银行可能增配信用债、债 基，且考虑到资本约束，利率债配置力度预计不减。中长期来看，银行债券投资配置盘占比较高，随着 老券到期、新券接续，或等价于一轮金融投资端降息。本期国债收益率整体下行，10年期国债利率较上 期末下降2.7bp至1.71%，债市走牛趋势延续，但下期需关注增值税政策对老券与新券的分化影响，预计 债市利率波动将加大。 2 、交易费率低：ETF交易费率低， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that multiple brokerages expect the 10-year government bond yield to have further downward potential in the second half of the year [1] - Citic Securities suggests that macroeconomic strength in the first quarter was supported by fiscal policies, infrastructure, and consumption growth, but anticipates a marginal weakening of economic growth momentum in the second half due to various risks [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that while external demand may fluctuate, the bond market primarily prices domestic demand, highlighting the core issue of demand contraction and weakened expectations within the domestic economy [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) offers three trading advantages: flexible trading with T+0 capabilities, high collateral utilization with a pledge rate of approximately 94%, and suitability for cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies [2] - The performance of the 10-year government bond ETF has been strong, with a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, and a five-year return of 19.26% [2] - Since its launch in 2017, the 10-year government bond ETF has consistently achieved profitability each year, making it a valuable asset allocation tool across market cycles [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The allocation value of interest - rate bonds still exists, but the difficulty of capital gain gaming increases [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - On May 9, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.02% to 120.370 yuan, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.01%, 0.07%, and 0.01% respectively [1] - The treasury bond futures index was 0.05. The quantity - price factor was bullish, and the fundamental factor was bearish. Without leverage, the cumulative returns of the strategy were 0.26% in the past 20 days, - 0.71% in the past 60 days, 0.40% in the past 120 days, and 1.43% in the past 240 days [1] - In the equity market, the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. There were more falling stocks than rising ones, and over 4000 stocks fell across the market [1] 2. Capital Conditions - Overnight shibor was reported at 1.4970%, down 4.2bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was 1.5190%, down 7.5bp; 14 - day shibor was 1.5540%, down 12.6bp; 1 - month shibor was 1.6840%, down 1.8bp [2] 3. Treasury Bond Futures Market of the Previous Trading Day - Transaction details of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year main contracts including opening, high, low, closing prices, changes, amplitudes, trading volumes, and open interests were provided [3] - The 2 - year active CTD bond was 240024.IB with an IRR of 1.97%, the 5 - year was 240014.IB with an IRR of 1.95%, the 10 - year was 240025.IB with an IRR of 1.93%, and the 30 - year was 200012.IB with an IRR of 0.73%. Currently, R007 was about 1.5805% [3] 4. Money Market and Bond Market - On May 9, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded 2 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.67%. Overnight and 7 - day rates decreased, while 14 - day and 1 - month rates were flat compared to the previous trading day [4] - In the cash bond market, the treasury bond yield curve shifted up by 0.43 - 2.27BP, and the credit bond yield curve showed mixed changes [4] 5. Net Long Position Changes by Institution Type - Daily changes: private funds increased by 1.64%, foreign capital increased by 7.17%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 6.96% - Weekly changes: private funds increased by 0.7%, foreign capital increased by 5.32%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 7.14% [6] 6. Macro and Industry News - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from before [8] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue the second - phase special treasury bonds for capital injection into central financial institutions in 2025, a 7 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond with a competitive tender face value of 145 billion yuan [8] 7. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral position [9]