Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in U.S. non-farm employment data in July has led to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, resulting in a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which enhances the value of domestic bonds [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 17 basis points to 4.22%, while the 10-year domestic government bond yield decreased by 3 basis points to 1.71%, indicating potential for further monetary policy easing [1] - The macroeconomic environment suggests that the value of interest rate bonds is becoming more prominent, especially with the anticipated resumption of the Fed's rate cut cycle [1] Group 2: Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) - The Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, with an average duration of 7.6 years [1] - Since its inception, the ETF has consistently achieved new net asset value highs, with a one-year return of 5.88%, a three-year return of 16.13%, a five-year return of 22.41%, and a cumulative return of 36.68% [1] - The ETF has maintained positive annual returns over seven complete calendar years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [1] Group 3: Unique Advantages of the Ten-Year Treasury ETF - The ETF offers T+0 trading, allowing investors to buy and sell on the same day, which is advantageous in a low-interest, high-volatility market [2] - It features low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [2] - The ETF provides transparency with daily published holdings, allowing investors to track their investments easily [3] - Investors can use the ETF for pledge repurchase, enabling them to access funds for other investment opportunities while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera has shown a slight decline recently, but has experienced an overall increase in the past two weeks, indicating a mixed performance in the bond market [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 11, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF from Bosera is down 0.65% with a latest price of 110.58 yuan [2]. - Over the past two weeks, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 0.76% [2]. - The ETF has a recent trading volume of 26.14 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows a slight decline in the China bond yield due to stable CPI and a narrowing decline in PPI, suggesting moderate inflation pressure [2]. - The central bank's large-scale reverse repos have enhanced market liquidity expectations, while the stable credit rating from S&P supports market confidence [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Performance - The 30-year Treasury ETF has seen a net outflow of 66.78 million yuan recently, but has had a net inflow of 598.40 million yuan over the last ten trading days [3]. - The ETF's net asset value has increased by 9.67% over the past year, ranking 7th out of 416 in its category [3]. - The fund has a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [3]. Group 4: Risk and Fees - The management fee for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [3]. - The fund has a tracking error of 0.043% over the past two months, indicating a close alignment with the underlying index [4].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced on August 1 that from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax, while previously issued bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining ample liquidity, and promoting the construction of a "technology board" in the bond market, as well as the use of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds to expand their issuance scale [1] - Guangfa Securities noted that the announcement led to market fluctuations, with the yield on 10-year government bonds initially rising and then falling, indicating an increase in the attractiveness of older bonds [1] Group 2 - The 10-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-Year Government Bond Index, selecting bonds with a remaining term of 7 to 10 years, and has maintained a constant duration of 7.6 years [2] - Since its inception, the 10-Year Government Bond ETF has consistently achieved positive returns, with a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, a five-year return of 19.26%, and a cumulative return of 34.63% [2] - The ETF has maintained positive returns for seven consecutive years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [2] Group 3 - The 10-Year Government Bond ETF offers unique advantages, including T+0 trading, allowing for same-day buying and selling, which is beneficial in a high-volatility market [3] - The ETF has low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [4] - The ETF provides transparency in holdings by publishing a daily PCF list, and allows for pledge repurchase, enabling investors to leverage their ETF holdings for other investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that multiple brokerages expect the 10-year government bond yield to have further downward potential in the second half of the year [1] - Citic Securities suggests that macroeconomic strength in the first quarter was supported by fiscal policies, infrastructure, and consumption growth, but anticipates a marginal weakening of economic growth momentum in the second half due to various risks [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that while external demand may fluctuate, the bond market primarily prices domestic demand, highlighting the core issue of demand contraction and weakened expectations within the domestic economy [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) offers three trading advantages: flexible trading with T+0 capabilities, high collateral utilization with a pledge rate of approximately 94%, and suitability for cash-and-carry arbitrage strategies [2] - The performance of the 10-year government bond ETF has been strong, with a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, and a five-year return of 19.26% [2] - Since its launch in 2017, the 10-year government bond ETF has consistently achieved profitability each year, making it a valuable asset allocation tool across market cycles [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The allocation value of interest - rate bonds still exists, but the difficulty of capital gain gaming increases [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - On May 9, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.02% to 120.370 yuan, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.01%, 0.07%, and 0.01% respectively [1] - The treasury bond futures index was 0.05. The quantity - price factor was bullish, and the fundamental factor was bearish. Without leverage, the cumulative returns of the strategy were 0.26% in the past 20 days, - 0.71% in the past 60 days, 0.40% in the past 120 days, and 1.43% in the past 240 days [1] - In the equity market, the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline. There were more falling stocks than rising ones, and over 4000 stocks fell across the market [1] 2. Capital Conditions - Overnight shibor was reported at 1.4970%, down 4.2bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was 1.5190%, down 7.5bp; 14 - day shibor was 1.5540%, down 12.6bp; 1 - month shibor was 1.6840%, down 1.8bp [2] 3. Treasury Bond Futures Market of the Previous Trading Day - Transaction details of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year main contracts including opening, high, low, closing prices, changes, amplitudes, trading volumes, and open interests were provided [3] - The 2 - year active CTD bond was 240024.IB with an IRR of 1.97%, the 5 - year was 240014.IB with an IRR of 1.95%, the 10 - year was 240025.IB with an IRR of 1.93%, and the 30 - year was 200012.IB with an IRR of 0.73%. Currently, R007 was about 1.5805% [3] 4. Money Market and Bond Market - On May 9, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded 2 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.67%. Overnight and 7 - day rates decreased, while 14 - day and 1 - month rates were flat compared to the previous trading day [4] - In the cash bond market, the treasury bond yield curve shifted up by 0.43 - 2.27BP, and the credit bond yield curve showed mixed changes [4] 5. Net Long Position Changes by Institution Type - Daily changes: private funds increased by 1.64%, foreign capital increased by 7.17%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 6.96% - Weekly changes: private funds increased by 0.7%, foreign capital increased by 5.32%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 7.14% [6] 6. Macro and Industry News - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from before [8] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue the second - phase special treasury bonds for capital injection into central financial institutions in 2025, a 7 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bond with a competitive tender face value of 145 billion yuan [8] 7. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of treasury bond futures was 0, indicating a neutral position [9]