Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the stock and bond markets in 2025, highlighting a significant rise in A-shares while the bond market faces challenges due to changing economic fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds reflects a shift in market risk appetite, where funds flow into equities during bullish phases, leading to pressure on bond prices [4][5]. - Economic fundamentals, including macroeconomic conditions, inflation, and monetary policy, are the primary determinants of bond market trends, rather than stock market fluctuations [4][5]. - Recent economic indicators show signs of weakening, such as a decline in new loans and social financing, which typically would support the bond market; however, the bond market continues to decline due to strong stock performance and policy disruptions [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - In a bullish stock market, the bond market may not present high value, but there are opportunities for tactical trading, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [7]. - Monitoring the yields of 10-year and 30-year government bonds is crucial, as bond prices and yields move inversely; rising yields indicate falling bond prices and vice versa [7][8]. - Historical trends show that while bond yields have generally declined over the past decade, the current yields are at historical lows, suggesting potential for further declines in the long term, despite short-term volatility [8][9]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Considerations - For long-term investments, key considerations include duration selection (short-term vs. long-term bonds), risk-return trade-offs (focusing on Sharpe ratios), and alignment with market conditions [10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a rational approach to investing, avoiding the temptation to follow stock market trends blindly, and recognizing the unique dynamics of the bond market [10].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is experiencing significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 12.8% and the ChiNext Index up 22% in 2025, while the bond market is facing challenges, with a 30-year government bond ETF down over 2% year-to-date and a further decline of 4% since June [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds reflects a shift in market risk appetite, where funds flow into equities during bullish phases and retreat to bonds during bearish phases [1][2] - The primary determinants of bond market trends are economic fundamentals, including macroeconomic conditions, inflation, and monetary policy, rather than stock market performance [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates a weakening trend, with July's new loans showing negative growth for the first time since 2005 and a decline in social financing year-on-year [2][3] - Despite these indicators suggesting support for the bond market, the bond market continues to decline due to strong stock performance and policy disruptions, indicating a temporary disconnection from economic data [2][3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - In a bullish stock market, the bond market may not present high value, but there are opportunities for tactical trading, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [4][5] - Monitoring the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields is crucial, as bond prices and yields move inversely; rising yields lead to falling bond prices and vice versa [4][5] Group 4: Historical Context - Over the past decade, the long-term trend in China's bond market has been a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield currently around 1.76% and the 30-year yield at 2.06% [5][6] - Historical data shows that current yields are at a low point, but there is potential for further declines, indicating a long-term downward trend in interest rates [6][7] Group 5: Tactical Approaches - For short-term trading, flexibility is key; if yields rise, it presents buying opportunities, while falling yields may prompt profit-taking [6][7] - For long-term investments, considerations include duration selection, risk-return trade-offs, and alignment with market conditions, emphasizing the importance of rational decision-making [7]