李迅雷金融与投资 引言 在上一篇《资金与估值：中美科技是否见顶？》文章中，我们通过对比2020年白酒消费、2021年新能 源、2025年科技这三轮主线行情，发现了一个显著特征：本轮科技结构性行情中，无论是机构资金还是 散户资金的入场节奏都表现得"相对克制"，流入加速度明显趋缓。 同时，杠杆资金净买入强度仍明显弱于2019-2020那种"单边净加仓"状态，更像是"观望、分段加仓"， 右侧追涨扩张程度并不高。而与居民资金"观望"形成鲜明对比的是，2025Q3 保险资金权益类资产（股 票+基金）余额环比抬升8639亿元，是前一季度的3倍。 那么，居民资金入市缓慢的深层原因是什么？如何看待未来增量资金的空间？在岁末年初的日历效应 下，居民资金是否会缺席"春季躁动"行情？ 居民资金行为透视："去杠杆化"特征 与2015年"杠杆疯牛"的狂热或2020年核心资产抱团时期的"借基入市"不同，2025年的居民入市行为呈现 出显著的 "去杠杆化"的特征。当前居民资金的"慢"，并非市场缺乏流动性，而是居民资产配置偏好在 当前宏观背景之下正在经历一些历史性变化。 第一，新增开户数量提升速度不及以前。2025年11月新增开户数为238 ...

同时，杠杆资金净买入强度仍明显弱于2019-2020那种"单边净加仓"状态，更像是"观望、分段加仓"，右侧 追涨扩张程度并不高。而与居民资金"观望"形成鲜明对比的是，2025Q3 保险资金权益类资产（股票+基 金）余额环比抬升8639亿元，是前一季度的3倍。 那么，居民资金入市缓慢的深层原因是什么？如何看待未来增量资金的空间？在岁末年初的日历效应下， 居民资金是否会缺席"春季躁动"行情？ 居民资金行为透视："去杠杆化"特征 （转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 引言 与2015年"杠杆疯牛"的狂热或2020年核心资产抱团时期的"借基入市"不同，2025年的居民入市行为呈现 出显著的 "去杠杆化"的特征。当前居民资金的"慢"，并非市场缺乏流动性，而是居民资产配置偏好在 当前宏观背景之下正在经历一些历史性变化。 在上一篇《资金与估值：中美科技是否见顶？》文章中，我们通过对比2020年白酒消费、2021年新能源、 2025年科技这三轮主线行情，发现了一个显著特征：本轮科技结构性行情中，无论是机构资金还是散户资 金的入场节奏都表现得"相对克制"，流入加速度明显趋缓。 考虑924行情中开户数量飙升 ...

Core Insights - The report by Ernst & Young highlights the robust performance of the IPO market in mainland China and Hong Kong amidst a global downturn in IPO activities, with a significant increase in their market share [1][7]. A-Share Market - In the first half of 2025, approximately 50 companies are expected to go public in the A-share market, raising over 37.1 billion RMB, marking a 14% increase in both the number of IPOs and the total funds raised year-on-year [4]. - The industrial, technology, and materials sectors lead in both the number of IPOs and the amount raised, with the automotive industry playing a crucial role, accounting for over 30% of the listed companies [4][5]. - The "technology" attribute of the A-share market is becoming increasingly prominent, with regulatory support for high-quality, unprofitable tech companies to go public [4][6]. Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a strong recovery, with an estimated 40 companies expected to go public in the first half of 2025, raising around 108.7 billion HKD, representing a 33% increase in the number of IPOs and a 711% increase in funds raised year-on-year [7][8]. - The introduction of the "Tech Company Special Line" in May 2025 is aimed at facilitating the listing of technology and biotech companies, thereby enhancing the market's focus on innovation [3][7]. - The "new consumption + hard technology" sectors are emerging as key drivers for the Hong Kong IPO market, with biotech and health, as well as retail and consumption, leading in the number of IPOs [7][8]. Future Outlook - The A-share IPO market is expected to adopt a more rhythmic issuance pattern that aligns with market capacity, focusing on high-quality tech companies that meet listing criteria [6]. - The North Exchange is becoming a primary platform for IPO applications, indicating a shift towards supporting specialized and innovative small and medium enterprises [6]. - The Hong Kong IPO market is anticipated to maintain its momentum due to the enthusiasm for A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, the implementation of the "Tech Company Special Line," and the return of Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [8].