李迅雷金融与投资 引言 在上一篇《资金与估值：中美科技是否见顶？》文章中，我们通过对比2020年白酒消费、2021年新能 源、2025年科技这三轮主线行情，发现了一个显著特征：本轮科技结构性行情中，无论是机构资金还是 散户资金的入场节奏都表现得"相对克制"，流入加速度明显趋缓。 同时，杠杆资金净买入强度仍明显弱于2019-2020那种"单边净加仓"状态，更像是"观望、分段加仓"， 右侧追涨扩张程度并不高。而与居民资金"观望"形成鲜明对比的是，2025Q3 保险资金权益类资产（股 票+基金）余额环比抬升8639亿元，是前一季度的3倍。 那么，居民资金入市缓慢的深层原因是什么？如何看待未来增量资金的空间？在岁末年初的日历效应 下，居民资金是否会缺席"春季躁动"行情？ 居民资金行为透视："去杠杆化"特征 与2015年"杠杆疯牛"的狂热或2020年核心资产抱团时期的"借基入市"不同，2025年的居民入市行为呈现 出显著的 "去杠杆化"的特征。当前居民资金的"慢"，并非市场缺乏流动性，而是居民资产配置偏好在 当前宏观背景之下正在经历一些历史性变化。 第一，新增开户数量提升速度不及以前。2025年11月新增开户数为238 ...

同时，杠杆资金净买入强度仍明显弱于2019-2020那种"单边净加仓"状态，更像是"观望、分段加仓"，右侧 追涨扩张程度并不高。而与居民资金"观望"形成鲜明对比的是，2025Q3 保险资金权益类资产（股票+基 金）余额环比抬升8639亿元，是前一季度的3倍。 那么，居民资金入市缓慢的深层原因是什么？如何看待未来增量资金的空间？在岁末年初的日历效应下， 居民资金是否会缺席"春季躁动"行情？ 居民资金行为透视："去杠杆化"特征 （转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 引言 与2015年"杠杆疯牛"的狂热或2020年核心资产抱团时期的"借基入市"不同，2025年的居民入市行为呈现 出显著的 "去杠杆化"的特征。当前居民资金的"慢"，并非市场缺乏流动性，而是居民资产配置偏好在 当前宏观背景之下正在经历一些历史性变化。 在上一篇《资金与估值：中美科技是否见顶？》文章中，我们通过对比2020年白酒消费、2021年新能源、 2025年科技这三轮主线行情，发现了一个显著特征：本轮科技结构性行情中，无论是机构资金还是散户资 金的入场节奏都表现得"相对克制"，流入加速度明显趋缓。 考虑924行情中开户数量飙升 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 徐蔚）中金公司研报表示，2005年以来A股市场共经历5轮时间较长的周期 切换。当前A股市场相较此前几轮周期演绎，更加具备"长期""稳进"条件，有望迈向"长期""稳进"新范 式。 中金公司提示关注两大潜在的范式变化：一是居民储蓄高增长叠加低利率环境。当前，我国居民储蓄存 款快速增长并突破160万亿元。与此同时，银行存款利率和国债收益率均降至2%以下的低位。而随着沪 深300的股息率在2024年正式超过国债收益率，并且企业现金流改善和监管支持，使得企业分红得到较 好的保障，股票逐渐成为当前可选择的、为数不多的潜在高回报资产，居民资金入市潜力有待赚钱效应 激发。二是长线资金入市。2025年保险资金投资于股票和证券投资基金的运用余额，由2024年底4.1万 亿元增加至2025年三季度的5.6万亿元，占保险资金仓位突破性地提升至15%（历史均值在12.5%左 右）。如果"居民资金入市"和"长钱长投"与市场赚钱效应提升形成正向循环，并配合基本面持续改善， 资本市场生态改善有望推动A股进入新范式，打破过去的周期频繁轮动，实现 ...

Group 1 - The impact of real estate on the asset side of insurance companies is limited, while signs of recovery on the liability side are emerging, indicating an expected strong performance in 2026 [1] - The non-bank sector shows potential for fundamental improvement, particularly benefiting from the influx of resident capital into the market [1] - The proportion of real estate-related assets held by listed insurance companies has significantly decreased, and asset quality has improved compared to previous periods [1] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume of stock funds this week was 17,939 billion yuan, down from 20,380 billion yuan [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the underwriting scale for IPOs and private placements reached 9,526 billion yuan, with corporate bonds and convertible bonds financing scales at 197 billion yuan and 564 billion yuan respectively [2] - The insurance industry reported a cumulative premium income of 52,146 billion yuan from January to September 2025, reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year increase [3]

Group 1: Long-term Bull Market Foundation - The current bull market has lasted over a year, with the index performance approaching a structural bull market, indicating significant room for growth compared to previous comprehensive bull markets [15] - The improvement in liquidity is a key factor for the current bull market, but historical trends show that long-term bull markets are often supported by improved fundamental expectations [19][28] - The relationship between market performance and fundamentals becomes more stable over longer time periods, emphasizing the importance of fundamental factors for sustained market performance [19] Group 2: Earnings Stability and Structural Highlights - In 2026, price changes are expected to become a major driver of earnings, with A-share earnings projected to gradually recover, reaching a growth rate of approximately 10% [2][82] - The recovery in prices is anticipated to be driven by policies aimed at stabilizing prices and demand, which will alleviate downward pressure on prices in various industries [69] - The structural highlights in earnings are expected to come from sectors like AI and semiconductors, which are likely to continue their performance validation [82] Group 3: Focus on Resident Funds and the "14th Five-Year Plan" - Resident funds are the most significant source of capital for the A-share market, with a notable trend of "deposit migration" expected to continue, driven by higher relative returns in the capital market [89][90] - High-risk preference funds have been the main incremental source of capital in the current bull market, similar to trends observed in 2015 [90] - Middle-risk preference funds are anticipated to become a major incremental source in the next phase, particularly as the "money-making effect" of public funds becomes more evident [106][111] Group 4: Industry Main Lines and Potential Switches - The TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to remain the main lines of the bull market in 2026, with significant growth potential as they enter the second phase of the bull market [5][91] - There may be potential sectoral switches, particularly towards cyclical and financial sectors, as market conditions evolve [5][109] - The focus on technology growth, consumption, and resource sectors is expected to present thematic investment opportunities [5][110]

Group 1 - The A-share market has reached a significant milestone with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 4000 points, marking the highest level since August 18, 2015 [1] - The market rally since September 24 has been primarily driven by several types of funds, including broad-based ETFs and margin financing, with active equity public funds and non-broad-based ETFs focusing on industry sectors playing a key role since July [1] - Institutional investors show a preference for cyclical and large financial sectors, while individual investors are more focused on the consumer sector; both groups are interested in gold and chips, with institutions also favoring military and dividend-related sectors, while individuals lean towards pharmaceuticals and securities [1] Group 2 - The current growth rate of household deposits has not significantly declined, indicating that while there is an emerging willingness among residents to invest, large-scale market entry has not yet commenced, suggesting that the entry of residents is still in the early stages [2] - There has been a notable shift in foreign capital flows since July, with a slowdown in active foreign capital outflows and a significant net inflow of passive foreign capital, driven by the attractiveness of China's emerging industries and competitive valuations in the global market [2] - The market is characterized by a steady allocation from institutional investors, gradual participation from individual investors, and improved inflow dynamics from overseas investors, highlighting the importance of monitoring individual investor participation, domestic policy implementation, and foreign capital flows for potential structural investment opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the performance of listed securities firms is expected to maintain rapid growth in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.63% [1] - The report forecasts that the adjusted operating revenue of 42 listed securities firms will increase by 32.02% year-on-year to 395.48 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 165.15 billion yuan, reflecting strong market activity [1] - For Q3 2025, the single-quarter adjusted revenue is projected to be 148.15 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.45% and a year-on-year increase of 27.15%, while net profit is expected to be 61.13 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.94% and a year-on-year increase of 48.74% [1] Group 2 - The investment banking sector is benefiting from a marginal recovery in IPOs, with investment banking revenue increasing by 21.84% year-on-year to 24.82 billion yuan, primarily due to the recovery in financing in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - Asset management revenue has decreased by 0.81% year-on-year to 32.2 billion yuan, mainly due to a decline in management fees [2] - Net interest income has surged by 92.86% year-on-year to 4.23 billion yuan, driven by growth in margin financing [2] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the ongoing influx of incremental funds into the market, particularly from residents, which is expected to enhance the performance of blue-chip stocks with low valuations and high ROE [2] - The new assessment method for insurance companies implemented by the Ministry of Finance is likely to encourage them to increase their equity positions, further supporting market growth [2] - The report suggests focusing on stocks with strong performance elasticity in Q3 amid the backdrop of increased resident investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms is expected to maintain rapid growth in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.63% due to strong market conditions and improved performance [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - It is anticipated that the adjusted operating revenue of 42 listed securities firms will increase by 32.02% year-on-year to 395.48 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 58.63% to 165.15 billion yuan [1]. - For Q3 2025, the adjusted operating revenue is projected to be 148.15 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.45% and a year-on-year increase of 27.15%, while net profit is expected to reach 61.13 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.94% and a year-on-year increase of 48.74% [1]. Group 2: Business Contribution Analysis - The brokerage business is expected to contribute the most to the revenue growth, accounting for 48.32% of the adjusted revenue increase, primarily driven by a significant rise in market trading volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The investment business is projected to contribute 38.14% to the adjusted operating revenue growth, as the equity market shows marginal improvements compared to the high base in Q3 2024 [2]. - Investment banking revenue is expected to increase by 21.84% to 24.82 billion yuan, benefiting from a recovery in A-share and Hong Kong stock financing, while asset management revenue is forecasted to decline by 0.81% to 32.2 billion yuan due to falling management fees [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The influx of incremental funds into the market is ongoing, supported by a new assessment method for insurance companies that encourages higher equity allocations, favoring undervalued blue-chip stocks with high return on equity [3]. - In the context of increased retail investor participation, it is recommended to focus on companies with strong earnings elasticity in Q3 [3].

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD may be seen as a "catch-up" due to a weaker dollar environment, with the RMB appreciating by approximately 2.3% compared to a 10% depreciation of the dollar index in the first eight months of 2025 [5][6][7] - The domestic equity market's recovery and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are key triggers for the recent rise in the RMB exchange rate, despite weaker manufacturing PMI data [6][8] - The RMB is expected to continue appreciating, but short-term fluctuations may occur due to uncertainties in global economic policies, particularly in Japan [8][9] Group 2: ETF Market Dynamics - Since June, non-broad-based ETFs have seen rapid growth, with net inflows reaching 227.9 billion RMB, indicating a shift in retail investor preferences towards ETFs [11][12] - Broad-based ETFs have experienced significant net redemptions, suggesting that while overall ETF inflows may appear modest, retail funds are actively entering the market through non-broad-based ETFs [12][13] - The current bull market is characterized by a shift from actively managed funds to ETFs, driven by factors such as product variety, cost efficiency, and ease of access [13][14] Group 3: Power Equipment and New Energy Sector - The photovoltaic industry is facing severe overcapacity, with nominal production capacity exceeding 1200 GW, leading to significant price declines across the supply chain [18][19] - Recent government initiatives aim to curb internal competition and stabilize the market, with signs of price recovery in the polysilicon segment [19][20] - Despite ongoing losses in the main supply chain, specialized companies are performing better than integrated firms, indicating a potential for recovery as supply-demand dynamics improve [20][21] Group 4: Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector reported a revenue of 4.46359 trillion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, but profits fell by 9% to 181.46 billion RMB [23][24] - The basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of 1.1707 trillion RMB in H1 2025, with a profit of 73.17 billion RMB, reflecting a 3.5% revenue increase year-on-year [24][25] - The petrochemical sector, excluding major state-owned enterprises, saw a revenue decline of 7.3% in H1 2025, indicating challenges in profitability [25][26] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - Sunshine Nuohuo (688621.SH) reported a revenue of 590 million RMB in H1 2025, a 4.87% increase, with a significant Q2 performance showing a 15.73% year-on-year growth [28][29] - The company is advancing its innovative drug pipeline, with multiple projects in clinical trials, indicating a strong growth trajectory [29][30] - Haofan Bio (301393.SZ) achieved a revenue of 270 million RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a 20.10% increase, driven by strong demand for GLP-1 drugs [32][33] Group 6: Food and Beverage Sector Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) reported a revenue of 23.96 billion RMB in H1 2025, a 5.4% increase, but faced pressure on profit margins due to changing consumer preferences [40][41] - Wuliangye (000858.SZ) achieved a revenue of 52.77 billion RMB in H1 2025, a 4.2% increase, but is navigating challenges in maintaining price stability amid competitive pressures [45][46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that current resident funds have not significantly entered the stock market, either directly or indirectly through public offerings, despite some high-net-worth investors participating [1] - According to West Securities, the participation of retail investors is currently lower than the "924" market last year, indicating limited inflow of retail funds compared to previous bullish trends [1] - The company predicts that as asset scarcity intensifies, resident funds will accelerate their flow into wealth management products, indirectly entering the equity market through channels like fixed-income plus funds, becoming a major source of incremental funds for future market trends [1] Group 2 - CICC observes signs of resident deposit migration, estimating that approximately 5 trillion yuan of "excess savings" accumulated from 2022 to 2024 could serve as potential market entry funds [1] - Research indicates that since May, signs of deposits moving to the stock market are evident, reflected in the M1 growth rate rising to 5.6%, increased enthusiasm for stock funds, and rapid growth in broker margin accounts [2] - Despite the A-share market's daily trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August and a significant increase in financing balance, retail investors have not yet entered the market on a large scale, with new account openings in July up 26% from May but still below last October's peak [2]