2025年08月23日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报(2025年第三十期) 交投持续活跃,推动券商估值修复 市场表现: 本期（2025.8.18-2025.8.22）非银（申万）指数+2.69%、行业排 18/31．券商 II 指数+3.12%,保险II指数+1.36%; 上证综指+3.49%，深证成指+4.57%，创业板指+5.85%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：中油资本（+34.38%）、光大证券（+8.46%）、华林证 拳（+8.03%）、华鑫股份（+8.02%）、哈投股份（+7.60%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：中银证券（-9.19%）、南华期货（-6.68%）、国盛金控 (-5.52%）、瑞达期货（-1.75%）、江苏金租（-1.20%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 维持评级 行业走势图 700/ 10% 作者 薄晓旭 分析师 SAC 执业证书:S0640513070004 联系电话:0755-33061704 邮箱：boxx@avicsec.com 相关研究报告 非银行业周报(2025年第二十九期)交投持续 活跃,关注券商半年度业绩—2025-08 ...

截至2025年8月21日 14:08，中证全指证券公司指数(399975)下跌0.40%。成分股方面涨跌互现，华鑫股份(600621)领涨2.14%，财达证券(600906)上涨1.92%， 国泰海通(601211)上涨0.87%；长城证券(002939)领跌，西南证券(600369)、湘财股份(600095)跟跌。券商ETF(512000)下修调整。拉长时间看，截至2025年8 月20日，券商ETF近1周累计上涨4.88%。 流动性方面，券商ETF盘中换手4.31%，成交12.24亿元。拉长时间看，截至8月20日，券商ETF近1周日均成交21.13亿元，排名可比基金前2。 规模方面，券商ETF最新规模达283.95亿元，创近半年新高，位居可比基金第二。份额方面，券商ETF最新份额达455.71亿份，创近1年新高，位居可比基金 第一。从资金净流入方面来看，券商ETF近3天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得11.43亿元净流入，合计"吸金"15.28亿元，日均净流入达5.09亿元。 消息面上，8月15日，证监会发布《关于核准国融证券股份有限公司变更主要股东、实际控制人以及国融基金管理有限公司、北京首创期货有限责任 ...

时至8月中旬，首批券商2025年半年报相继出炉。 江海证券的经营业绩最先曝光，随后，8月14日，西南证券、粤开证券分别发布了2025年半年 报。此外，8月15日，东方财富公布2025年半年报，东方财富证券的"成绩单"随之浮出水面。 上述4家券商在今年上半年均实现了营收、净利润"双增" 。其中，江海证券得益于较低基数， 净利润同比暴增超10倍；粤开证券净利润同比增幅接近85%。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，除了经纪业务，自营业务、投行业务也是券商业绩重要的增 量来源，但各家券商在这两项业务上的表现仍然呈现分化。 值得一提的是，除了上述4家券商，7月中旬左右，有20多家上市券商发布2025年半年度业绩 预增公告（净利润同比增长50%以上），券商业绩整体回暖已是大概率事件。 叠加近期A股市场交投活跃，券商行情又有"卷土重来"的迹象。8月15日，Wind券商指数大涨 4.41%，为当天表现最好的Wind中国行业指数。 营收、净利"双增" 在目前已公布2025年半年度业绩的4家券商中，江海证券的业绩弹性最为突出。 8月13日，哈投股份发布2025年半年度报告。报告显示，2025年上半年，江海证券实现营业总 收入7.26 ...

Core Insights - The brokerage industry has reported strong performance in the first half of the year, benefiting from an improved equity market, with significant year-on-year growth in trading volume and investment banking financing [2][3] - Among the 28 brokerages that disclosed earnings forecasts, all reported an increase in net profit, with notable growth from Guotai Junan and Huaxi Securities, which saw net profit growth exceeding tenfold [2][3] - The trend of "the strong getting stronger" is deepening, with leading firms like Guotai Junan expected to achieve a net profit of 152.83 billion to 159.57 billion yuan, surpassing the total profit of the bottom ten brokerages [2][3] Industry Performance - The A-share market has seen multiple surges in the brokerage sector, with the Wind brokerage index rising by 2.47% on July 11, indicating a strong market performance [8][9] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased by 62% year-on-year to 13,891 billion yuan, while the Hong Kong market saw a 118% increase in average daily trading volume to 2,401 billion HKD [8][9] Earnings Forecasts - A total of 28 brokerages have reported positive earnings forecasts, with 26 expecting growth and 2 turning losses into profits [3][4] - Guotai Junan is leading with an estimated net profit growth of 205% to 218%, driven by significant increases in wealth management and institutional trading revenues [6][7] - Notably, Guolian Minsheng and Huaxi Securities are projected to have net profit growth rates of 1,183% and 1,353.9%, respectively, due to low comparative bases from the previous year [5][7] Business Segments - The core growth drivers for brokerages include wealth management, investment trading, and investment banking, with substantial contributions from these segments to overall performance [8][9] - The investment banking sector has seen a resurgence, with A-share IPO and refinancing volumes increasing by 15% and 507% year-on-year, respectively [9] Market Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the brokerage sector's future, citing improved risk appetite, fundamental improvements, and business innovations as catalysts for further valuation recovery [8][12] - The regulatory environment is encouraging industry consolidation, which is expected to enhance overall competitiveness and resource allocation within the sector [12]

Group 1 - Chinese brokerage stocks collectively rose, with notable increases: Guolian Minsheng up 5.4% to HKD 3.92, Everbright Securities up 4.46% to HKD 8.66, CICC up 3.88% to HKD 16.6, CITIC Securities up 2.86% to HKD 10.08, and Huatai Securities up 2.56% to HKD 15.24 [1] - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Deepening Reform and Innovation in the Shenzhen Comprehensive Reform Pilot" by the Central Committee and the State Council allows companies in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to also list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - This policy is expected to enhance the connectivity between the capital markets of mainland China and Hong Kong, increasing trading activity and opening growth opportunities for brokerage investment banking businesses [1] - Current brokerage valuations are at historical lows, and with market recovery and favorable policies, brokerage businesses such as brokerage, investment banking, and capital intermediary services are likely to benefit, leading to further valuation recovery in the brokerage sector [1] Group 2 - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai on June 18-19, where major financial policies are expected to be announced by central financial management departments [2] - It is anticipated that more policies aimed at activating the capital market will be released, focusing on enhancing the quality of listed companies, market activity, and investor returns [2] - The market sentiment is expected to be catalyzed by the policy announcements during the Lujiazui Forum, according to Donghai Securities [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [3][42]. Core Viewpoints - The securities sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 0.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.07 percentage points. The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage sector is 1.28 times, which is near historical lows, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [2][3]. - Recent policy initiatives, such as allowing companies from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, are expected to enhance the connectivity between mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, thereby creating growth opportunities for brokerage firms [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that mergers and acquisitions within the brokerage sector are encouraged by regulators, which can enhance overall competitiveness and resource allocation in the industry [3][6]. Summary by Sections Securities Weekly Data Tracking - The average daily trading volume for A-shares reached 13,717 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 13.47%. The average turnover rate was 4.03%, up by 0.43 percentage points [11]. - As of June 13, 2025, the total equity financing scale for the year reached 1,860.64 billion yuan, with IPOs contributing 322 billion yuan and additional offerings accounting for 1,368 billion yuan [13]. Insurance Weekly Data Tracking - As of April 2025, the total assets of insurance companies amounted to 37.84 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.95%. Life insurance companies held 33.06 trillion yuan, representing 87.37% of total assets [30][31]. - The original insurance premium income for the industry in April 2025 was 25,954.45 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.25% [27][31]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the recent policy changes aimed at promoting the integration of the securities industry and enhancing its development quality. This includes the encouragement of social responsibility among securities firms [35][36]. - The report suggests that the insurance asset management sector is benefiting from favorable market conditions and regulatory support, which is expected to enhance the scale and concentration of the industry over the long term [7][8].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong upward momentum this year due to its valuation advantages and market vitality, while the A-share market is gradually recovering with increased trading activity [1] - Analysts believe that the securities industry is likely to experience a valuation recovery, with a consensus on the potential for growth in the sector as capital market reforms deepen [1][4] - The average AH share premium for 13 listed securities firms has narrowed to 103% as of June 13, down from 180% at the end of 2023, indicating a convergence in valuations between A-shares and H-shares [2] Group 2 - The A-share securities sector has seen a decline of 6.46% year-to-date, with only 7 out of 42 stocks showing price increases, while the H-share market has performed better with 9 out of 13 stocks rising [2] - The policy support from the Chinese government is expected to create new opportunities for securities firms, particularly in cross-border finance and international business [4] - The significant improvement in the performance of listed securities firms, with a 24.6% year-on-year increase in revenue and an 83.48% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, provides strong support for valuation recovery [4] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current average valuation of the non-bank financial sector remains low, providing a safety margin and potential for growth as the market recovers [5] - The securities industry is expected to benefit from a favorable policy environment, with potential growth in brokerage, investment banking, and capital intermediary services [5] - The outlook for the securities industry in 2025 is stable, with a focus on firms with strong balance sheet management and steady earnings growth [5]