智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，百胜中国(09987)同店保持韧性增长，门店持续扩张，态势保 持向上。该行认为公司具备长期领先的规模、品牌影响力和行业管理能力、数字化能力。该行预计 2025-2027年公司归母净利润分别为9.2/9.91/10.57亿美元，对应PE分别为19X/17X/16X，维持"增持"评 级。 财通证券主要观点如下： 公司公布RGM3.0战略 公司在投资者日上公布RGM3.0战略，继续聚焦韧性、增长、护城河三大核心维度，秉持"创新与提 效"双轮驱动策略，采用"前端分层，后端聚合"的发展理念。即在前端通过多品牌组合与多元化产品 线，覆盖广泛消费场景与客群;于后端通过跨门店、跨地区的资源共享与整合提升效率，构建更强协同 效应。 加速门店网络扩张 截至3Q2025全国门店17514家，较2024年净新增门店1119家。公司公布未来五年门店的增长目标：稳步 推进2026年门店总数达2万家的目标;2028年门店总数增加至超过2.5万家;到2030年门店总数力争突破3万 家。在加盟店上，2025年肯德基与必胜客净新增门店中加盟店的占比分别达到40%-50%和20%-30%，公 司计划未来几年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yum China has set an ambitious target to open 30,000 stores by 2030, marking the beginning of an unprecedented expansion phase for the largest chain restaurant group in China [1] Expansion Strategy - The company aims to reach 20,000 stores by 2026, with a total exceeding 25,000 by 2028, primarily driven by KFC, which is expected to grow to over 17,000 locations [2] - The expansion will also include Lavazza and other brands, with a projected total of over 6,000 new stores in the next three years [2] - Currently, Yum China's services cover about one-third of China's population, with a goal to expand to half by 2028 [2] Market Adaptation - Yum China has validated its store model for lower-tier markets, focusing on resilience, growth, and strategic advantages through its RGM strategy [3] - The "WOW model" for Pizza Hut has rapidly developed since its launch in May 2024, helping to penetrate 40 new cities [3] Sales and Pricing Strategy - Same-store sales growth is conservatively projected at 0-2%, necessitating a more thorough mass-market approach [4] - KFC has maintained stable pricing since 2016, while Pizza Hut has strategically reduced prices since 2019, with current prices at about 70% of a decade ago [4][5] Future Growth Drivers - Future same-store growth will rely on increasing order volumes, with successful models like the "shoulder-to-shoulder" store type enhancing customer reach [6] - New initiatives include introducing burgers at Pizza Hut and affordable meal options at KFC targeting budget-conscious consumers [7] Operational Efficiency - The extensive store network supports centralized operations and collaborative innovation [8] - The RGM 3.0 strategy emphasizes resource integration across stores and brands, enhancing operational efficiency [9][10] Supply Chain Optimization - The focus on maximizing the value of key products, such as chicken, is aimed at reducing operational losses [12] - Yum China is advancing integrated industrial park construction to streamline supply chain operations [13][14] Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - The company aims to increase ROIC from 16.9% in 2024 to approximately 20% by 2028, driven by enhanced profitability and controlled capital expenditures [17] - By 2028, the target operating profit margin is set to be no less than 11.5%, with KFC aiming for 17.3% and Pizza Hut for 14.5% [19] - Yum China plans to return approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders annually from 2024 to 2026, with a goal of distributing nearly all free cash flow from 2027 onwards [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - Yum China is signaling positive long-term growth amidst a complex environment, with a strategic upgrade to "RGM 3.0" focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage [1][12] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes a dual-driven strategy of "innovation + efficiency" to enhance collaboration among stores, regions, and brands [1] - The RGM strategy has led to high-quality and steady growth since its initiation in 2021, with positive same-store sales and improved profit margins despite market challenges [1] - Management expresses strong confidence in achieving rapid growth and efficiency improvements over the next three years, with ambitious store expansion and sales growth targets [1] Group 2: Financial Goals and Shareholder Returns - Yum China plans to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, with expected annual returns between $900 million and over $1 billion from 2027 to 2028 [2] - The company aims for system sales to achieve mid to high single-digit compound growth and operating profit to achieve high single-digit compound growth from 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 3: Brand and Product Expansion - The growth model is based on a "multi-brand, multi-product, multi-module" approach, enhancing user coverage and consumption scenarios [3] - KFC remains the core brand, with significant single product sales exceeding 4 billion yuan annually, supporting new business expansions [3] - The company plans to expand KFC stores to 17,000 by 2028 and achieve over 10 billion yuan in operating profit [3] Group 4: Operational Efficiency and Innovation - Pizza Hut has accelerated growth with a focus on value positioning, achieving a 17% increase in same-store transaction volume for three consecutive quarters [4] - The company is implementing a simplified operational model and product innovations to penetrate deeper into the market [4] - Lavazza Coffee is also expanding rapidly, with plans to reach 1,000 stores and $60 million in retail sales by 2029 [4] Group 5: Supply Chain and Technology - The company’s supply chain, digital technology, and talent development are crucial for supporting business growth and profitability [6][7] - Yum China is transitioning to an AI-driven operational system, enhancing efficiency in various operational aspects [6] - The company is expanding its supplier base and implementing direct procurement strategies to maintain cost advantages [6] Group 6: Market Potential and Industry Outlook - The Chinese restaurant market has significant growth potential, with a current chain penetration rate of about 20%, compared to over 50% in mature markets [12] - The company aims to increase its consumer service coverage from one-third to approximately half by 2028 [12] - The restaurant industry is entering a mild recovery phase, supported by policy incentives and improving consumer sentiment [8][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yum China Holdings [2][7] Core Insights - Yum China held its 2025 Investor Day on November 17, launching the "RGM 3.0" strategy, focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage, with innovation and efficiency as dual drivers [3][13] - The company targets over 30,000 stores by 2030, with specific store count goals of 20,000 by 2026 and 25,000+ by 2028 [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are USD 11.63 billion, USD 12.16 billion, and USD 12.76 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of 2.9%, 4.6%, and 4.9% respectively [7][14] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profits are expected to be USD 911 million in 2025, USD 1.03 billion in 2026, and USD 1.13 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 0.0%, 12.8%, and 10.2% respectively [7][14] - The company anticipates a gross profit margin (GPM) of 68.7% in 2025, increasing to 69.9% by 2027 [10][12] - The report projects a diluted EPS of USD 2.52 for 2025, increasing to USD 3.13 by 2027 [10][12] Expansion Strategy - Franchise empowerment is a core strategy, with plans to open over 3,000 new franchise stores from 2026 to 2028, with franchise stores making up 40%-50% of new openings for both KFC and Pizza Hut [4] - The company aims to enhance restaurant profitability, targeting an operating profit margin of at least 11.5% by 2028 [4] New Business Developments - New business initiatives, including KFC Coffee and KPRO, are expected to exceed initial growth expectations, with KFC Coffee projected to surpass 5,000 stores by 2029 [5] - The company plans to return approximately 100% of free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, with expected annual shareholder returns of USD 900 million to USD 1 billion [5]

Core Insights - Yum China Holdings, Inc. has set ambitious growth targets, aiming to reach 20,000 stores by 2026, over 25,000 by 2028, and over 30,000 by 2030 [1][3] - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, driving sales growth, and enhancing profitability through various strategic initiatives [1][3] Store Expansion Goals - The company plans to double its store count from 10,000 to 20,000 within six years, a significant acceleration compared to the previous 33 years to reach the first 10,000 [1] - KFC aims to increase its store count to over 17,000 by 2028, with a target operating profit exceeding RMB 10 billion [1] - Pizza Hut plans to add over 600 new stores annually for the next three years, targeting over 6,000 stores by 2028 [1] Emerging Business Models - New business models like KFC Coffee and KPRO are expected to exceed growth expectations, with KFC Coffee projected to surpass 5,000 locations by 2029 [2] - Pizza Hut's WOW model focuses on "everyday low prices," reducing single-store investment by nearly 50% and expanding into lower-tier cities [2] - Lavazza Coffee is set to expand significantly, aiming for over 1,000 stores and $60 million in retail sales by 2029 [2] Market Opportunities - The company sees significant opportunities in the Chinese market, currently serving about one-third of consumers, with a goal to increase this to about half [3] - The penetration rate of chain restaurants in China is only about 20%, compared to over 50% in developed countries like the U.S. [3] Strategic Framework - Yum China has introduced the RGM 3.0 strategy, focusing on resilience, growth, and competitive advantage, with an emphasis on innovation and efficiency [3][4] - The company is leveraging resource sharing and integration across its brands to create stronger synergies [4] Commitment to Shareholders - The company plans to return approximately 100% of its free cash flow to shareholders starting in 2027, after paying dividends to minority shareholders [4][5] - Yum China expresses confidence in achieving its growth targets and continuing to create value for shareholders [5]