来源：市场资讯 （来源：FOF老码头） 回顾这一年，全球资本市场并非在一条叙事路径上展开，而是在剧烈的叙事切换中寻找平衡。从年初 对"特朗普经济学"的盲目押注，到年终对AI资本回报率的质疑；从美元信用的动摇，到黄金与白银史诗 级行情的爆发。市场在这一年里，深刻地体验了从"美国例外论"的幻灭到"资产再平衡"的颠簸过程。 第三季度：非理性繁荣与双轨制经济 第三季度市场动荡展示了全球经济与市场的不确定性，从AI信仰的狂热到降息的预期落地，从股市的 投机热潮到黄金的避险需求，市场呈现出多重背离的态势。一些投资者在宽松政策和技术繁荣的支持 下，疯狂追逐科技股，而黄金和债市则成为了"聪明资金"的避风港。随着美联储降息的实施和AI产业链 的持续扩张，市场或将迎来新一轮的调整和再平衡，未来的市场将充满更多不确定性和波动性。 7月：脱敏与亢奋 市场进入了一个非理性的"亢奋期"。尽管非农数据表现强劲，削弱了市场对美联储降息的紧迫预期，但 股市依旧在AI龙头公司的引领下，强势反弹。投资者对关税风险的敏感性减弱，尤其是在特朗普与欧 盟、日本达成贸易协议后，市场投机情绪升温。即使在全球贸易环境尚存不确定性，许多投资者依然处 于高度乐观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman Bullock expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5% despite ongoing global economic uncertainties and unpredictability [1] Economic Indicators - Monthly data suggests that core Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not meet expectations [1] - A significant drop in CPI alongside only a slight increase in unemployment rate is surprising [1] Monetary Policy - The committee is seeking a cautious and gradual path for monetary easing [1] - The RBA's rate hikes have been smaller compared to other central banks, indicating that extensive rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains tight, with expectations of some easing by the end of the year [1] - Leading indicators do not suggest a significant rise in the unemployment rate [1]