【1月1日，澳大利亚去年12月房价增速因加息风险放缓】受加息风险影响，澳大利亚去年12月房价增速 放缓，两大主要市场小幅下跌，给今年房地产市场情绪和前景蒙上阴影。房地产咨询公司CoreLogic周 五公布数据，主要城市房价指数环比涨0.5%，悉尼和墨尔本均跌0.1%。矿业中心珀斯和南部城市阿德 莱德领涨，涨幅均为1.9%，布里斯班和达尔文紧随其后，均涨1.6%。澳洲联储主席布洛克基本排除进 一步降息可能性，曾在2-8月有短暂宽松周期。其警告，若通胀压力持续，可能恢复加息。因多数澳大 利亚借款人用浮动利率抵押贷款，这种政策转向或很快影响市场情绪。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 For hexun.com ...

格隆汇1月1日｜受加息风险影响，澳大利亚去年12月房价增速放缓，两大主要市场甚至出现小幅下跌， 这给今年房地产市场的情绪与前景蒙上阴影。房地产咨询公司CoreLogic周五公布的数据显示，主要城 市房价指数环比上涨0.5%，但悉尼和墨尔本均下跌0.1%。矿业中心珀斯和南部城市阿德莱德领涨，涨 幅均为1.9%，布里斯班和达尔文紧随其后，均上涨1.6%。澳洲联储主席布洛克已基本排除了进一步降 息的可能性——此前在2月至8月期间曾有过短暂的宽松周期——并警告称，若通胀压力持续，可能会恢 复加息。鉴于大多数澳大利亚借款人采用的是浮动利率抵押贷款，这种政策转向可能很快影响市场情 绪。 ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan predicts a weakening of the US dollar by mid-2026 due to relaxed monetary and fiscal policies, but warns that accelerated market bets on future rate hikes could challenge this outlook [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Forecast - JPMorgan's currency strategists expect the dollar to decline by approximately 3% by mid-2026, stabilizing thereafter, particularly against high-yield currencies like the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone [1] - The bank's negative outlook on the dollar was established in March and has remained consistent since then [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased government spending, and concerns over government intervention in Fed decisions are supporting JPMorgan's views [2] - Despite recent rate cuts, US interest rates remain higher than those of many global central banks, attracting global investors to the US and limiting the appeal of diversifying investments outside the US [3] Group 3: Employment and Growth Risks - A rebound in the US job market or growth expectations could lead traders to dismiss the possibility of rate cuts next year and increase bets on potential rate hikes [3] - JPMorgan's analysts note that if US economic growth improves enough to end current easing policies, the bank would shift to a bullish outlook on the dollar [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The futures market indicates that the current rate cycle will bottom out by early 2027, with JPMorgan's economic team forecasting a rate hike of about 50 basis points in the first half of 2027 [3] - A significant portion of market participants, including nearly two-thirds of US Treasury secretaries and CFOs surveyed, predict that the Fed will raise rates next year [3]

Group 1 - UBS Asset Management's Kevin Zhao predicts that the Federal Reserve will have to shift towards interest rate hikes next year due to economic growth recovery, leading to a significant widening of U.S. Treasury yield spreads [1] - Zhao's prediction contrasts sharply with the market's general expectation, which anticipates further rate cuts from the Fed, including two more cuts this year and five by the end of 2026 [1] - Zhao believes that if economic growth rebounds, unemployment decreases, and inflation remains high, the rationale for the Fed to raise rates will become evident by mid-next year [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between two-year and ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds has narrowed to about 50 basis points, with Zhao waiting for it to narrow to approximately 40 basis points before initiating a trade to profit from a steepening yield curve [2] - The Global Dynamic Bond Fund managed by Zhao has achieved a return of over 7% this year, outperforming 89% of its peers [2]