（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 这是一次鸽派的FOMC，如前所述，我觉得这是正确的做法。在所有发言里面，我觉得有一句话是我觉 得最值得一读的。大意是： 鲍威尔认为需要几年时间，保持实际薪资更高，名义工资高于名义通胀，才能让美国人感觉到对于物价 可负担。因此联储正在为此努力，控制通胀，单页支持劳动力市场和强劲的工资，以便让人们赚到足够 的钱，并再次感到经济健康。 我觉得目的是最重要的，手段都是其次，上面这段话表明的就是联储的目的。是他如何解决目前通胀和 失业率的难题。关于这个我想再补充几点 第一是，这个说法和Trump以及哈赛特的说法是呼应的，Trump在之前很多个场合都说过，只有一个大 大的成功才能让大家团结在一起。我们且不说他的用词和夸张的语句如何，这个思路是没有任何问题 的。成功是成功之母。在一个分裂的世界里面需要成功，即便只是成功的幻像。 哈赛特之前也说过，从2.5%的通胀到了4%要不要加息，肯定是要的，逻辑也是如此，因为4%的通胀谁 的经济能跑得赢这么高的通胀，但是不是通胀在2.5%就要加息一定要把通胀干到2%，那何苦呢？ 所以这是一个共识的看法，也是我心目中更合理的做法，在现 ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan predicts a weakening of the US dollar by mid-2026 due to relaxed monetary and fiscal policies, but warns that accelerated market bets on future rate hikes could challenge this outlook [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Forecast - JPMorgan's currency strategists expect the dollar to decline by approximately 3% by mid-2026, stabilizing thereafter, particularly against high-yield currencies like the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone [1] - The bank's negative outlook on the dollar was established in March and has remained consistent since then [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased government spending, and concerns over government intervention in Fed decisions are supporting JPMorgan's views [2] - Despite recent rate cuts, US interest rates remain higher than those of many global central banks, attracting global investors to the US and limiting the appeal of diversifying investments outside the US [3] Group 3: Employment and Growth Risks - A rebound in the US job market or growth expectations could lead traders to dismiss the possibility of rate cuts next year and increase bets on potential rate hikes [3] - JPMorgan's analysts note that if US economic growth improves enough to end current easing policies, the bank would shift to a bullish outlook on the dollar [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment - The futures market indicates that the current rate cycle will bottom out by early 2027, with JPMorgan's economic team forecasting a rate hike of about 50 basis points in the first half of 2027 [3] - A significant portion of market participants, including nearly two-thirds of US Treasury secretaries and CFOs surveyed, predict that the Fed will raise rates next year [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising by 0.53% and silver prices by 4.07% in the week of July 7-11, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has reached a maximum of over 100 this year, indicating potential for further increases in silver prices as gold prices stabilize [4] - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, with fluctuations in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices noted. The report highlights a significant discrepancy between Indonesia's nickel production quotas and actual output due to seasonal weather impacts [4] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have increased, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand. Tungsten prices are also rising, indicating a steady growth in demand for tungsten in production tools [4] - Energy metals show mixed trends, with lithium prices increasing while cobalt and nickel prices are declining. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, and domestic monetary policies are expected to support growth [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with the gold-silver ratio indicating potential for silver price increases [4][5] 1.2 Industrial Metals - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes for various industrial metals, noting specific percentage changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel [27] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth metals and tungsten have increased, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing and steady demand growth [28][31] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rising, while cobalt and nickel prices are declining, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring of energy metal demand [34] 2. Market Data - The report notes that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.02% increase, with specific sectors like metal new materials and precious metals showing significant gains [35] 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the successful launch of a new aluminum electrolysis production line and the planned expansion of an electrolytic aluminum project [41][42]