1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for multiple futures varieties, including "cautiously bullish" for rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, and "bullish" for coke and coking coal [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: Macro factors provide short - term support, and steel products are expected to be strong in the short term. Rebar's supply - demand is weak, but it may be boosted by new regulations and production control. Hot - rolled coil's supply is high, but it may be strengthened by policies [2][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Although the static fundamentals are neutral to weak, due to the easing of Sino - US relations and positive macro factors, the iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term [8]. - **Coke**: After the second round of price increases is fully implemented and the third round is on the way, coke is expected to follow the coking coal price and be strong in the short term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is affected by safety inspections and other factors, and imports may be tightened. With high iron - water production, the price is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions should be held [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon's cost provides some support, and ferrosilicon is expected to follow the coal price. Both are cautiously bullish [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Weekly production and apparent demand have increased, and inventory has decreased. Supply and demand are lower than last year, inventory is slightly high, and the inventory reduction speed is average. The upward driving force is limited. New regulations on capacity replacement and regional production control may boost it, and it may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Apparent demand has increased, production has remained flat with a slight increase, and inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than in previous years. Steel supply is at a high level, but it may be strengthened by policies in the short term [4][5]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices such as rebar 01 are 3133 (up 42), and spot prices like Tangshan billet are 3000 (up 20). There are also details about basis, price differences, and profit margins [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Iron - water production has decreased, and steel mills and ports have increased inventory. Outer - mine shipments have increased, but arrivals have decreased significantly. Steel - enterprise profits have been rapidly compressed, and the static fundamentals are neutral to weak. - **Price Movement**: Affected by positive macro factors, the iron ore price is expected to be strong in the short term. Futures prices such as iron ore 01 are 802 (up 12), and there are also details about spot prices, price differences, and freight rates [6][8]. 3.3 Coke - **Market Dynamics**: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the third round is in progress. Coke - steel game is obvious. Coke - enterprise profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in losses. Steel - mill inventory is low, and some steel mills are replenishing inventory. - **Price Outlook**: It is expected to follow the coking coal price and be strong in the short term. There are details about futures prices, basis, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10][11]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Supply and Demand**: Coal - mine production has decreased month - on - month. Supply is affected by safety inspections and over - production verifications, and imports may be tightened. Iron - water production is high, and demand is guaranteed. The supply - demand pattern has become tight. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions should be held. There are details about futures prices, basis, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and utilization rates [14][15]. 3.5 Ferroalloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Production area supply is at a high level. After the new round of replenishment demand from downstream steel procurement is released, inventory reduction in production areas becomes more difficult. The cost provides some support in the short term, and it is cautiously bullish [19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply and demand have weakened, enterprise inventory has decreased. It is expected to follow the coal price and be strong in the short term, and it is cautiously bullish. There are details about futures prices, spot prices, basis, and weekly data such as production and inventory [18][19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall view is that most futures varieties in the steel and related industries are expected to show a short - term bullish trend but with certain risks and limitations. For example, although there are some positive factors such as policy support and demand recovery, there are also issues like high inventory and weak overall supply - demand balance [1] Summary by Variety Steel Products 1. **Rebar** - **Variety View**: Weekly production and apparent demand have both increased, and inventory continues to decline. However, both supply and demand are lower than last year, inventory is slightly high, and the inventory reduction speed is average. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the upward driving force is limited [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Driven by the new regulations on capacity replacement in the steel industry and regional production control, it may run with a short - term volatile and slightly stronger trend [5] 2. **Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Variety View**: Apparent demand has increased, production has remained flat with a slight increase, and inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than in previous years [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Although the molten iron output is still high and the overall steel supply is at a high level, it may run with a short - term phased stronger trend due to policy support [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Molten iron output has decreased again, and steel mills and ports have accumulated inventory. Overseas ore shipments have increased at a high level, but arrivals have significantly decreased. Steel enterprises' profits have been rapidly compressed, and the static fundamentals are moderately weak. However, the easing of Sino - US relations has released positive macro - level signals [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, with short - term ore prices expected to run with a volatile and slightly stronger trend [9] Coke - **Variety View**: The second round of price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations for a third - round increase. The game between coke producers and steel mills is obvious. Recently, coke producers' profits have decreased, and the scope of cost inversion has expanded. Steel mills' inventory levels are low, and some are still increasing inventory. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced [11] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, expected to follow coking coal and run within a certain range in the short term [12] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Coal mine production has decreased month - on - month. The supply side has been greatly affected by safety inspections and over - production verifications recently. The absolute level of molten iron output is high, ensuring raw material demand. Supply and demand are relatively balanced with few contradictions. There are occasional disturbances on the origin supply side, supporting the market performance, but there is some pressure for short - term price increases [15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, and be cautious about chasing long positions [16] Ferroalloys 1. **Silicomanganese** - **Variety View**: The production area supply level is still at a high level compared to the same period. After the release of the new round of replenishment demand in downstream steel procurement, the difficulty of inventory reduction in the production area has further increased [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, the cost side provides some support for prices, but the upward driving force is still relatively limited. Be cautious about chasing long positions [20] 2. **Ferrosilicon** - **Variety View**: Both supply and demand have weakened. Enterprise inventory has decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts has continued to decline. Pay attention to the situation of re - warehousing after cancellation [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: Expected to follow coal prices and run within a certain range in the short term. Be cautious about chasing long positions [20]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹周度产量与表观需求均回升，库存继续回落。目前供需均低于去年同期，库存略偏 | | | 谨慎看多 | 高，降库速度一般，整体供需偏弱，向上驱动力量有限。钢铁行业产能置换新规以及区 | | ★ | | 域性控产带来提振，短期或震荡偏强运行。 | | 热卷 ★ | 谨慎看多 | 热卷表需回升，产量持平略增，库存小幅下降，但仍较往年同期偏高。目前铁水产量仍 | | | | 较高，钢材整体供应处于高位。但短期受政策提振或阶段性偏强运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 数据来看，铁水再降，钢厂、港口累库。但外矿发货高位放量，到货明显缩量。钢企利 | | ★ | 短线参与 | 润快速压缩，静态基本面中性。下游成材端节后库存压力逐步体现，产业负反馈担忧加 | | | | 重。关注钢厂减产情况，短期矿价震荡偏弱运行。 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看多 | 第二轮提涨预计本周落地，市场仍有三轮提涨预期，焦钢博弈明显。近期焦企利润有所 下降，但现货生产仍相对稳定。铁水产量维持高位运行，原料需求较佳。焦炭本身供需 | | ★ | | | | ...