Equity Market - The technology sector continues to show strong momentum, with a significant net inflow of 340 billion CNY in technology-themed ETFs in September, up from 413 billion CNY in August[18] - The total net inflow for industry and thematic ETFs reached a one-year high of 964 billion CNY in September, with notable increases in financial and real estate sectors[18] - The top net outflow was from the CSI 300 ETF, which saw a reduction of 146.46 billion CNY, as some investors sought structural opportunities near the 3900-point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index[12] Bond Market - Bond ETFs have gained popularity, with a net inflow of 921 billion CNY in September, primarily driven by the Sci-Tech bond ETFs[58] - Major banks net purchased 3302 billion CNY in interest rate bonds, while other banks showed net selling behavior[66] - Insurance companies increased their net purchases of long-term interest rate bonds to 2561 billion CNY, up from 2046 billion CNY in August[69] Commodity Market - Gold ETFs experienced a net inflow of 55.98 billion CNY in September, although this was lower than the monthly inflows seen from February to April 2025[73] - Domestic investors shifted their focus from gold to gold stocks, with gold stock ETFs seeing significant performance improvements[73] Market Sentiment - The margin trading balance increased by 1674.06 billion CNY in September, marking the highest level since 2019, indicating a sustained high risk appetite among investors[47] - Southbound trading reached a record high of 1726.53 billion CNY in September, with Alibaba contributing significantly to the net purchases in the retail sector[53]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its cash ADT and earnings per share forecasts for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) by 3% to 4% for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times for 2026 and increasing the 12-month target price from HKD 524 to HKD 544 [1] - The bank expects the investment income for the third quarter to be approximately half of the first half of the year, influenced by the decline in HIBOR from May to August, a reduction in external investment portfolios, and revisions to margin funding interest-sharing agreements [1] - Southbound trading is estimated to account for a 30% to 40% year-on-year increase in overall average daily turnover (ADT), which will be a key determinant of short-term stock price movements [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the ADT for the period from October to December 2025 will be around HKD 260 billion, aligning closely with consensus earnings per share estimates [1] - The bank views southbound trading as a unique factor contributing significantly to the overall ADT during this upward cycle, despite market uncertainties regarding future capital flows [1] - The firm remains confident that the flow and participation in southbound trading will structurally increase due to the diverse offerings, unique stocks, and valuation discounts (higher yields) available in the southbound market [1]

Group 1 - The liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market remains abundant, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 2,433 billion as of August 6, significantly higher than HKD 1,085 billion in the same period last year and the forecasted HKD 1,318 billion for the entire year of 2024 [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index have increased by 24.18% and 23.81% respectively [1] - Despite a recent decline in liquidity, the impact on Hong Kong stocks is expected to be limited, as the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) has significantly decreased since June, widening the interest rate gap between HKD and USD [1] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume for July 2025 reached HKD 2,629 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 167% [2] - The average daily trading volume for August so far is HKD 2,335 billion, remaining at historically high levels [2] - The net inflow from southbound trading this year has reached RMB 833.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 109.8% [2] Group 3 - Strong demand from mainland investors for Hong Kong-listed stocks is expected to continue in the second half of the year, driven by high-quality technology and advanced manufacturing stocks, attractive valuations, and high dividends [2] - The forecast for net inflows from mainland to Hong Kong southbound trading is projected to reach RMB 1.2 trillion in 2025, up from RMB 744 billion in 2024 and RMB 289.4 billion in 2023 [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor active stocks in southbound trading, including Alibaba-W, Meituan-W, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, SMIC, and Tencent Holdings [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong's financial market liquidity remains abundant, with average daily trading volume reaching HKD 240.1 billion as of June 18, 2025, significantly higher than HKD 110.8 billion in the same period last year and HKD 131.8 billion for the entire year of 2024 [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has increased by 16.7% since 2025, indicating a positive trend in the technology sector [1] - The report highlights active stocks in southbound trading, including Alibaba-W (09988), Meituan-W (03690), China Mobile (00941), Tencent Holdings (00700), SMIC (00981), and Li Auto-W (02015) [1] Group 2 - The IPO market in Hong Kong has thrived, with total financing amounting to HKD 77.99 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 559.8% [2] - Southbound trading recorded a net inflow of RMB 650.7 billion since 2025, a 104% increase compared to the previous year [2] - Mainland companies have increasingly dominated the Hong Kong stock market, accounting for 81.01% of total market capitalization and 91.04% of total trading volume as of May 2025 [2] Group 3 - The strong demand for Hong Kong-listed stocks through southbound trading is expected to continue in 2025, driven by more high-quality technology and advanced manufacturing stocks, attractive valuations, and high dividend yields [3] - The projected net inflow from southbound trading for the year is expected to reach RMB 1.2 trillion, surpassing RMB 744 billion in 2024 and RMB 289.4 billion in 2023 [3] - The interconnection mechanism between mainland and Hong Kong stocks is seen as a key driver for the long-term re-rating potential of the Hong Kong market [3]