1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to factors such as unclear Fed's December interest - rate cut direction, increased nickel resource supply cost, limited growth in refined nickel production, weak demand in the stainless - steel market, and rising domestic and overseas nickel inventories [7]. - The stainless - steel market faces supply pressure as production is expected to increase, while demand is lackluster, leading to a narrow increase in social inventory. It is expected to be in a downward trend [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary Nickel - **Weekly Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly change of - 0.95% and an amplitude of 1.92%. The closing price of the main contract was 119,440 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors are uncertain; on the fundamental side, supply cost rises, production growth is limited, demand has both positive and negative factors, and inventories are rising. Technically, the short - selling sentiment is strong [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds, paying attention to the pressure of MA10 [7]. Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: The stainless - steel market fluctuated and declined this week, with a weekly change of - 0.71% and an amplitude of 1.62%. The closing price of the main contract was 12,565 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Raw material cost has decreased, supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and technically, the downward trend is obvious [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see or short on highs, paying attention to the downward - channel range [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Price Movement - As of November 7, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 119,440 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,565 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - As of November 7, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 920 yuan/nickel, down 10 yuan/nickel from last week [13]. Basis - As of November 7, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,460 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 785 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai nickel remained stable, while that of stainless steel decreased [19]. Price Ratio - As of November 7, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel was 9.51, down 0.02 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.37 yuan/ton, up 0.02 from last week. The nickel - stainless - steel ratio fluctuated, and the tin - nickel ratio increased [26]. Net Long Positions of Top 20 - As of November 7, the net long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel were - 32,039 lots, an increase of 4,648 lots from November 3; the net long positions of the top 20 in stainless steel were - 11,188 lots, an increase of 9,020 lots from November 3. The net long positions of Shanghai nickel were at a low level, while those of stainless steel rebounded [32]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply Side - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: As of October 31, the nickel - ore inventory in major domestic ports was 1.4791 billion tons, a decrease of 188,100 tons from last week [37]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Production and Import**: In September 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In September 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 28,570.87 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.97%; from January to September, the cumulative import volume was 187,185.981 tons, a year - on - year increase of 200.63% [41]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of November 7, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 37,187 tons, an increase of 4,068 tons from last week; the LME nickel inventory was 253,104 tons, an increase of 21,474 tons from last week [48][49]. Demand Side - **Stainless - Steel Production and Trade**: In September 2025, the total stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. The import volume was 116,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons; the export volume was 348,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,800 tons. From January to September, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.067 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 231,900 tons [53]. - **Regional Inventories**: As of November 7, the 300 - series stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 292,241 tons, an increase of 5,015 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 570,765 tons, a decrease of 482 tons from last week [58]. - **Stainless - Steel Production Profit**: As of November 7, the stainless - steel production profit was - 121 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week [62]. - **Downstream Industries**: - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%; real - estate development investment was 677.0571 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [66]. - **Home Appliances**: In September 2025, the air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.96%; the household refrigerator production was 10.1276 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.18%; the household washing - machine production was 11.7849 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.43%; the freezer production was 2.5443 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5% [66]. - **Automobiles and Machinery**: In September 2025, the new - energy vehicle production was 3.276 million units, a year - on - year increase of 48%; the sales volume was 3.226 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. The excavator production was 31,608 units, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%; the large - and medium - sized tractor production was 26,215 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%; the small - tractor production was 10,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1% [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel both oscillated upwards. Shanghai nickel had a weekly increase of 1.86% with an amplitude of 3.66%, closing at 120,480 yuan/ton; stainless steel had a weekly increase of 0.87% with an amplitude of 2.50%, closing at 12,730 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroscopically, the better - than - expected non - farm payrolls in the US in June and the decline in the unemployment rate have significantly reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of nickel and stainless steel are both weak currently, but there are policy benefits. Technically, both are expected to have a short - term upward adjustment. It is recommended to either wait and see or go long with a light position [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - **Weekly Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated upwards, with a weekly increase of 1.86% and an amplitude of 3.66%, closing at 120,480 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic data in the US has reduced the Fed rate - cut expectation. On the supply side, the PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased the cost of nickel resources, and the domestic nickel ore inventory has decreased. Some non - integrated smelters have cut production due to losses. On the demand side, stainless steel mills have compressed profits and reduced production, while the demand for new energy vehicles is rising but has limited impact. Currently, supply and demand are both weak, domestic inventory is decreasing, and overseas inventory is stable. Technically, it is rising with a reduction in positions, and attention should be paid to the MA60 resistance. It is expected to have a short - term upward adjustment [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to either wait and see or go long with a light position [7]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: Stainless steel oscillated upwards, with a weekly increase of 0.87% and an amplitude of 2.50%, closing at 12,730 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: On the raw material side, although the PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased costs, the release of nickel - iron production capacity has led to a decline in nickel - iron prices, weakening cost support. On the supply side, steel mills are under greater cost - inversion pressure and have increased production cuts. It is expected that stainless steel production will further decline. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off - season, and the macro - market is uncertain, with continued pressure on export demand. Domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory. Technically, it is rising with a reduction in positions, and attention should be paid to the MA60 resistance. It is expected to have a short - term upward adjustment [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to either wait and see or go long with a light position [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Trends**: As of July 4, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) in the whole country was 910 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 122,270 yuan/ton, up 1,790 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,730 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - **Basis Situations**: As of July 4, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 123,450 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,180 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 570 yuan/ton [17]. - **Price Ratios**: As of July 4, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.6, up 0.06 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.19 yuan/ton, down 0.05 from last week [21]. - **Net Long Positions**: As of July 4, 2025, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 1,557 lots, a decrease of 1,202 lots compared to June 30, 2025. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 4,467 lots, an increase of 2,038 lots compared to June 30, 2025 [29]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Electrolytic Nickel**: As of July 4, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 871,840 tons, an increase of 14.83% from last week. The production profit of electrowon nickel was 1,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,550 yuan/ton from last week [32][33]. - **Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Trade**: In April 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [37]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of July 4, the LME nickel inventory was 21,059 tons, a decrease of 979 tons from last week. As of June 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 24,718 tons, a decrease of 2,357 tons from last week [39][42]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Trade**: In May 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.4629 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.44%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.7847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 976,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.58%. In May 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [46]. - **Regional Stainless Steel Inventories**: As of July 4, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 335,642 tons, an increase of 14,833 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 580,317 tons, a decrease of 20,190 tons from last week [47]. - **Downstream Industry Demands**: From January to May 2025, the new housing starts area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.8%; the housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; the real estate development investment was 362.3384 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. In May 2025, the air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.48%; the household refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.72%; the household washing machine production was 9.412 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%; the freezer production was 2.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In May 2025, the new energy vehicle production in China was 2.649 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7%; the sales volume was 2.686 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In May 2025, the excavator production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%; the medium - and large - sized tractor production was 24,616 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16.64%; the small - sized tractor production was 11,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [56][61]

Report Overview - Report Type: Stainless Steel Daily Report - Writing Time: April 18, 2025 - Review Cycle: Daily - Researcher: Dai Xiaohong - Consulting License Number: Z0000213 [1] 1. Market Performance - As of the close on April 17, the opening price of the stainless steel main contract SS2506 was 12,845, reaching a high of 12,915 and a low of 12,810, closing at 12,845, up 25 points or 0.20% for the day, with an amplitude of 1.96%. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 16,448 lots to 136,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,069 lots to 133,000 lots. The capital outflow was 7.27 million yuan, and the settled capital was 1.196 billion yuan. - The stainless steel warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded 182,752 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day. - Among the top 20 futures dealers in terms of open - interest ranking, the total long positions were 97,549 lots, an increase of 1,996 lots from the previous day, and the total short positions were 100,538 lots, an increase of 1,906 lots from the previous day. - The basis was 468 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] 2. Core Views - The continuous decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and the fall of high - carbon ferrochrome prices have weakened the cost support for stainless steel. - The Indonesian PNBP policy is set to be officially implemented on April 26, which may boost the cost support for stainless steel. However, the market has already anticipated and priced in this policy, so its short - term direct impact on prices is limited. - In April, stainless steel supply remains at a high level, while demand is in the off - season. Downstream buyers maintain a rigid procurement rhythm, with overall inquiries and transactions being average. Social inventory is digested slowly, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, putting pressure on prices. - Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies of various countries and the implementation of the Indonesian PNBP policy. If the nickel - iron price rebounds after the policy is implemented, it will strongly support the stainless steel price [4]