沪镍不锈钢市场周报 供需两弱政策利好 镍不锈钢震荡偏强 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 获取更多资讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 关 注 我 们 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 周度回顾：本周沪镍主力震荡上涨，周线涨跌幅为+1.86%，振幅3.66%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价120480元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人超预期，4、5月合计上修1.6万人，失业率意外降至4.1%。美 国6月ISM服务业PMI指数50.8，就业指数收缩，商业活动和订单回升。美联储降息预期大降。基本面，印尼政府 PNBP政策发放限制，提高镍资源供应成本，内贸矿升水持稳运行；菲律宾镍矿供应回升，不过国内镍矿港库下降， 原料呈现偏紧局面。冶炼端，目前原料价格较高，而镍价处于下行趋势，对其余冶炼厂造成利润亏损的影响，部 分非一体化冶炼厂选择减产。需求端，不锈钢厂利润压缩，300系进行减产；新能源汽车需求继续爬升，但占比 较小影响有限。近期供需 ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Stainless Steel Daily Report - Writing Time: April 18, 2025 - Review Cycle: Daily - Researcher: Dai Xiaohong - Consulting License Number: Z0000213 [1] 1. Market Performance - As of the close on April 17, the opening price of the stainless steel main contract SS2506 was 12,845, reaching a high of 12,915 and a low of 12,810, closing at 12,845, up 25 points or 0.20% for the day, with an amplitude of 1.96%. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 16,448 lots to 136,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,069 lots to 133,000 lots. The capital outflow was 7.27 million yuan, and the settled capital was 1.196 billion yuan. - The stainless steel warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded 182,752 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day. - Among the top 20 futures dealers in terms of open - interest ranking, the total long positions were 97,549 lots, an increase of 1,996 lots from the previous day, and the total short positions were 100,538 lots, an increase of 1,906 lots from the previous day. - The basis was 468 yuan/ton, narrowing by 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] 2. Core Views - The continuous decline in high - nickel pig iron prices and the fall of high - carbon ferrochrome prices have weakened the cost support for stainless steel. - The Indonesian PNBP policy is set to be officially implemented on April 26, which may boost the cost support for stainless steel. However, the market has already anticipated and priced in this policy, so its short - term direct impact on prices is limited. - In April, stainless steel supply remains at a high level, while demand is in the off - season. Downstream buyers maintain a rigid procurement rhythm, with overall inquiries and transactions being average. Social inventory is digested slowly, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, putting pressure on prices. - Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies of various countries and the implementation of the Indonesian PNBP policy. If the nickel - iron price rebounds after the policy is implemented, it will strongly support the stainless steel price [4]