免责声明 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月24日 | 12月23日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 766.5 | 764.5 | 2.0 | 0.26% | | | 原木2603 | 776.0 | 770.0 | 6.0 | 0.78% | | | 原木2605 | 784.0 | 781.0 | 3.0 | 0.38% | | | 01-03价差 | -9.5 | -5.5 | -4.0 | | | | 01-05价差 | -17.5 | -16.5 | -1.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -36.0 | -30.0 | -6.0 | | | | 01合约基差 | -26.5 | -24.5 | -2.0 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A大辐射松 | 850 | 850 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of logs has been weak recently, with a downward adjustment. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support in terms of import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price. There is an expectation of a downward adjustment in foreign quotes. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Price Changes**: On November 19, compared with November 18, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 all declined, with decreases of 9.5 yuan (-1.21%), 2.5 yuan (-0.31%), and 3.5 yuan (-0.43%) respectively. The 01 - 03 spread decreased by 7.0, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 6.0. The basis of the 03 contract increased by 2.5, and the basis of the 01 contract increased by 9.5 [2]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 19 compared with November 18. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2]. - **Import Cost Changes**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 19 was 7.111 yuan, a decrease of 0.002 yuan compared with November 18. The import theoretical cost was 810.73 yuan, a decrease of 0.26 yuan [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters (13.99%) compared with September. The number of ships arriving at the port from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, an increase of 8 (17.39%) [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 295 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters (0.68%) compared with November 7. The inventory in Shandong was 195.4 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.9 million cubic meters (2.04%), and the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.66 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.2 million cubic meters (1.46%) [2][3]. 3.3 Demand - **Weekly Average Daily Outbound Volume**: As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 6.56 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters (-1%) compared with November 7. In Shandong, it was 3.67 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.12 million cubic meters (-3%), and in Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.16 million cubic meters (7%) [3]. 3.4 Forecast of Arriving Ships - From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 ships (30%) compared with last week. The total arrival volume is about 46.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 15 million cubic meters (48%) compared with last week [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The log futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The market should focus on the impact of the follow - up progress of China - US economic and trade consultations on import cost expectations and changes in spot prices [7][9]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On October 27, 2025, the main contract LG2601 of log futures accelerated its decline, hitting the daily limit during the session and reaching a low of 780 yuan/cubic meter. At the close, it closed at 787 yuan/cubic meter, down 5.12% for the day. Compared with the high of 840 yuan/cubic meter on October 22, the cumulative decline reached 6.31% [1]. Reasons for the Decline - **Cost Support Weakening**: From October 25 - 26, China - US economic and trade teams had consultations. As the relationship showed signs of easing, the previous expectation of higher import costs of logs due to counter - measures weakened, and long - position funds reduced their positions, causing the futures price to fall [3]. - **Weak Demand and Negative Expectations**: The current log spot market has weak demand. During the traditional peak season, the daily average outbound volume remained at around 60,000 cubic meters. As national subsidy policies are coming to an end or their effects are weakening, the future procurement demand for furniture materials will decline. On the supply side, log imports are seasonally increasing in the fourth quarter, and the pressure on the supply side is gradually accumulating. As of October 24, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.84 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters from the previous week [4][5]. Market Outlook - The log futures 2601 contract price is at a relatively low level, and the market is worried about a "discount at delivery" situation. The spot market price is stable, but downstream procurement is inactive. The current inverted price between the domestic and foreign markets provides some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. The market's bearish sentiment is intensifying due to the expected weakening of the follow - up fundamentals [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The demand side is constrained by the traditional off - season in May. The demand for real - estate building materials is lower than expected, and furniture exports are affected by the China - US tariff war, so the later demand may be further compressed. In May, overseas shipments are expected to remain high, short - term arrival pressure is reduced, and the inventory destocking is mediocre. With the current spot price continuously decreasing, the weak balance pattern of the fundamentals persists, and the futures market is expected to be mainly oscillating weakly [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (log2507, log2509, log2511) increased slightly on February 8, with increases of 0.58%, 0.57%, and 0.44% respectively. The spreads between some contracts changed, and the basis of each contract decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports remained unchanged. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar and import theoretical costs changed slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 1.36 yuan [2] Supply - Monthly supply: Port throughput increased by 39.0 (24.17%) to 200.3 million cubic meters from March 31 to April 30, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8 (13.79%) to 66 [2] Inventory - Main port inventory (weekly): As of April 25, the inventory in China was 351.00 million cubic meters, with no change week - on - week. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 4.8 to 198.8 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.6 to 116.38 million cubic meters [2][3] Demand - Daily average outbound volume (weekly): As of April 25, the daily average outbound volume in China was 6.86 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters (5%) compared to April 18. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong increased by 0.56 million cubic meters (17%), and the daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu decreased by 0.21 million cubic meters (- 8%) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of the log market is loose. New Zealand has lowered its offer price to $110, and the cost reduction has pulled down the market valuation to a certain extent. The overall demand is suppressed by the shrinkage of building materials and is lower than expected. The market sentiment was weak yesterday, with heavy volume decline near the cost line. Attention should be paid to the support level around 780 yuan [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all decreased on April 22 compared to April 21, with decreases of -2.28%, -1.64%, and -2.10% respectively. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads and 07, 09, 11 contract basis also changed. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports showed different trends, with some decreasing and some remaining unchanged. The import theoretical cost increased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also changed slightly [2]. Supply - In March, the port throughput was 161.3 million cubic meters, a 23.05% increase compared to February. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 18.37%. From April 21 - April 27, the expected number of arriving ships of coniferous logs at 18 ports decreased by 45% week - on - week, and the expected arrival volume decreased by 28% week - on - week [2][3]. Inventory - As of April 18, the log inventory was 351 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters compared to April 11. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3]. Demand - As of April 18, the daily average log outbound volume was 6.51 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.65 million cubic meters compared to before, and the demand decreased week - on - week [3].