Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of logs has been weak recently, with a downward adjustment. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support in terms of import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price. There is an expectation of a downward adjustment in foreign quotes. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Price Changes**: On November 19, compared with November 18, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 all declined, with decreases of 9.5 yuan (-1.21%), 2.5 yuan (-0.31%), and 3.5 yuan (-0.43%) respectively. The 01 - 03 spread decreased by 7.0, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 6.0. The basis of the 03 contract increased by 2.5, and the basis of the 01 contract increased by 9.5 [2]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 19 compared with November 18. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2]. - **Import Cost Changes**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 19 was 7.111 yuan, a decrease of 0.002 yuan compared with November 18. The import theoretical cost was 810.73 yuan, a decrease of 0.26 yuan [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters (13.99%) compared with September. The number of ships arriving at the port from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, an increase of 8 (17.39%) [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 295 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters (0.68%) compared with November 7. The inventory in Shandong was 195.4 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.9 million cubic meters (2.04%), and the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.66 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.2 million cubic meters (1.46%) [2][3]. 3.3 Demand - **Weekly Average Daily Outbound Volume**: As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 6.56 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.07 million cubic meters (-1%) compared with November 7. In Shandong, it was 3.67 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.12 million cubic meters (-3%), and in Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.16 million cubic meters (7%) [3]. 3.4 Forecast of Arriving Ships - From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 ships (30%) compared with last week. The total arrival volume is about 46.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 15 million cubic meters (48%) compared with last week [3]

原木点评：成本支撑减弱叠加需求疲软，原木跌超 5% 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 曹剑兰（投资咨询资格编号：Z0019556） 2025 年 10 月 27 日星期一 电话：020-88818046 邮箱：caojianlan@gf.com.cn 行情导读： 2025 年 10 月 27 日，原木期货主力合约 LG2601 加速下行，盘中一度触及跌停，最低下探至 780 元/ 立方米，多头资金减仓离场。截止下午收盘，主力 LG2601 收于 787 元/立方米，单日下跌 5.12%。相 较于 10 月 22 日 840 元/立方米的高点，累计跌幅已达 6.31%。原木期货大跌主要由于以下几个方面 原因： 支撑减弱，未来家具材的采购需求将随之走弱，进一步削弱对原木的支撑作用。上周原木现货价格稳 中偏弱，山东无节材出现跌价。供应端方面，四季度原木进口呈季节性增长趋势，后续到港量或呈现 上升趋势。据木联数据，短期新西兰的到船量将有所增加，上周新西兰发运直发中国增加 1 船 5 万方， 近四周新西兰发运环比持平，供应端压力正在逐步累积。在需求疲软、旺季预期转弱的背景下，原木 库存压力凸显。据木联 ...

原木期货日报 4月18日 涨跌幅 单位 4月25日 涨跌 地区 中国 351.00 351.00 0.0 0.00% -2.41% 194.00 万/立方米 山东 198.8 -4.8 江苏 3.6 116.38 112.76 3.21% 需求: 日均出库量 (周慶) 4月25日 4月18日 地区 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 中国 6.86 6.51 0.35 5% 0.56 万/立方米 3.86 17% 3.30 山东 江苏 2.36 2.57 -0.21 -8% 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木主要港口库存(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/1 1/1 2022 - 2023 ·2024 =2022 =2023 = 2024 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 辐射松4米中A: CFR价(美元/JAS立方米 220 870 200 2022 2050 850 2025 2023 830 Teo 81 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of the log market is loose. New Zealand has lowered its offer price to $110, and the cost reduction has pulled down the market valuation to a certain extent. The overall demand is suppressed by the shrinkage of building materials and is lower than expected. The market sentiment was weak yesterday, with heavy volume decline near the cost line. Attention should be paid to the support level around 780 yuan [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all decreased on April 22 compared to April 21, with decreases of -2.28%, -1.64%, and -2.10% respectively. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads and 07, 09, 11 contract basis also changed. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports showed different trends, with some decreasing and some remaining unchanged. The import theoretical cost increased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also changed slightly [2]. Supply - In March, the port throughput was 161.3 million cubic meters, a 23.05% increase compared to February. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 18.37%. From April 21 - April 27, the expected number of arriving ships of coniferous logs at 18 ports decreased by 45% week - on - week, and the expected arrival volume decreased by 28% week - on - week [2][3]. Inventory - As of April 18, the log inventory was 351 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters compared to April 11. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3]. Demand - As of April 18, the daily average log outbound volume was 6.51 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.65 million cubic meters compared to before, and the demand decreased week - on - week [3].