Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although it is the off - season for crude oil demand, due to the impact of winter storms, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have also decreased significantly. However, the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest January EIA monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude for 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently, Venezuela has little impact on the global crude oil supply - demand. Geopolitical risks in Iran are highly uncertain, and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation is scheduled to be held in Muscat. The US has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The first - day negotiation between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has ended, and the restart of the Tengiz oil field is in progress but with limited capacity recovery. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the weakening of the current cold wave, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm has led to an unexpected reduction in US crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. Chevron is increasing Venezuelan crude oil transportation. Geopolitical risks in Iran are uncertain, with the US - Iran nuclear negotiation scheduled. The US has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may adjust its crude oil procurement. The first - day negotiation between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has ended, and the Tengiz oil field is restarting with limited capacity recovery. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 1.13% to 463.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 457.5 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 6074 to 21605 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars/barrel to 52.21 dollars/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels/day to 104.8 million barrels/day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels/day to 107.7 million barrels/day. The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels/day to 930,000 barrels/day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels/day to 2.5 million barrels/day. US EIA data on February 4 showed that for the week ending January 30, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels (expected to increase by 489,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.389 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.255 million barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply - side Situation - The OPEC latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels/day to 28.459 million barrels/day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels/day to 28.564 million barrels/day. Due to the winter storm, US crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels/day to 13.215 million barrels/day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.802 million barrels/day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels/day, with a four - week average production of 8.262 million barrels/day, a 0.44% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels/day, with a four - week average production of 4 million barrels/day, a 2.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The increase in diesel and other oil products drove the weekly supply of US crude oil products to continue to increase by 3.28% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are range - bound, and geopolitical risks remain a potential upward driving force. The downside space for crude oil is limited, with support at $55 for WTI crude oil due to US shale oil cost support, OPEC+ actively adjusting production growth rates to ease crude oil inventory accumulation pressure, and the end of the US government shutdown leading to a low risk of macro - economic recession. [1][4][74] - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long near $55 for WTI crude oil and the opportunity to go long on option volatility brought by geopolitical situation changes. [4][74] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The oil price was range - bound this week with increased amplitude. It dropped significantly due to the bearish OPEC report during the week but then recovered some losses. As of November 13, WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $58.60 per barrel, Brent at $63.11 per barrel, and SC crude oil futures active contract at 449.5 yuan per barrel. [9] - The monthly spread continued to decline with signs of gradual stabilization. [10] - The CFTC持仓 report was postponed. As of the week ending November 4, Brent fund net long positions were 152,761 lots, a decrease of 21,126 lots from the previous period, while diesel net long positions increased by 6,957 lots. [14] 2. Crude Oil Supply - OPEC+ production growth slowed down in October. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased by 106,000 barrels per day month - on - month in October. OPEC production increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's production growth rate declined, and some countries like Iran and Kazakhstan had production declines. OPEC+ decided to moderately increase production by 137,000 barrels per day on November 2 and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. [20] - US crude oil daily production increased slightly. As of the week ending November 7, US crude oil daily production was 1,386,200 barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous period. The OPEC report revised up the US crude oil production increase in 2025 to 410,000 barrels per day and kept the increase in 2026 at 100,000 barrels per day. [28] 3. Crude Oil Demand - In the US, gasoline and diesel demand rebounded, while jet fuel demand declined from its high due to the previous US government shutdown. As of the week ending November 7, gasoline demand was 9,028,000 barrels per day, an increase of 154,000 barrels per day from the previous period; diesel demand was 4,018,000 barrels per day, an increase of 308,000 barrels per day from the previous period; jet fuel demand was 1,636,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 45,000 barrels per day from the previous period. Diesel crack spread declined after rising, while gasoline crack spread was at a five - year high. US refinery estimated profit slightly declined, still at a moderately high level, and refinery utilization rate increased. [32][41][46] - In China, crude oil processing volume continued to grow. From June to October, China's crude oil processing volume increased year - on - year. In October, it was 63.43 million tons, an increase of 743,000 tons from the previous month and 3.892 million tons from the same period last year. [51] 4. Crude Oil Inventory - In the US, crude oil inventory increased significantly but remained at a low level in the past five years. As of the week ending November 7, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 427.581 million barrels, an increase of 6.413 million barrels from the previous period; SPR inventory was 410.393 million barrels, an increase of 798,000 barrels from the previous period. Gasoline and diesel continued to draw down inventory, while jet fuel inventory increased slightly. [57][63] - For OECD, the surplus pressure gradually increased. In October 2025, the global crude oil monthly supply was 108.18 million barrels per day, demand was 103.75 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 4.43 million barrels per day. OECD continued to accumulate inventory, with the inventory at the end of October at 2.903 billion barrels, an increase of 250 million barrels from the previous period. [70] 5. Summary and Outlook - The short - term oil price is range - bound, and geopolitical risks are a potential upward driving force. The downside space for crude oil is limited, with support at $55 for WTI crude oil. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - position opportunity near $55 for WTI crude oil and the long - position opportunity for option volatility due to geopolitical changes. [74]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are likely to remain in a range-bound fluctuation unless substantial driving factors emerge [1] Group 1: Market Assessment - The market is currently evaluating the impact of the EU's new sanctions on Russian oil [1] - Current oil prices are relatively stable due to this assessment [1] Group 2: Future Demand Concerns - U.S. President Trump's tariff threats may impact future fuel demand [1]