Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are range - bound, and geopolitical risks remain a potential upward driving force. The downside space for crude oil is limited, with support at $55 for WTI crude oil due to US shale oil cost support, OPEC+ actively adjusting production growth rates to ease crude oil inventory accumulation pressure, and the end of the US government shutdown leading to a low risk of macro - economic recession. [1][4][74] - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long near $55 for WTI crude oil and the opportunity to go long on option volatility brought by geopolitical situation changes. [4][74] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The oil price was range - bound this week with increased amplitude. It dropped significantly due to the bearish OPEC report during the week but then recovered some losses. As of November 13, WTI crude oil futures active contract closed at $58.60 per barrel, Brent at $63.11 per barrel, and SC crude oil futures active contract at 449.5 yuan per barrel. [9] - The monthly spread continued to decline with signs of gradual stabilization. [10] - The CFTC持仓 report was postponed. As of the week ending November 4, Brent fund net long positions were 152,761 lots, a decrease of 21,126 lots from the previous period, while diesel net long positions increased by 6,957 lots. [14] 2. Crude Oil Supply - OPEC+ production growth slowed down in October. OPEC+ crude oil production decreased by 106,000 barrels per day month - on - month in October. OPEC production increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's production growth rate declined, and some countries like Iran and Kazakhstan had production declines. OPEC+ decided to moderately increase production by 137,000 barrels per day on November 2 and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. [20] - US crude oil daily production increased slightly. As of the week ending November 7, US crude oil daily production was 1,386,200 barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous period. The OPEC report revised up the US crude oil production increase in 2025 to 410,000 barrels per day and kept the increase in 2026 at 100,000 barrels per day. [28] 3. Crude Oil Demand - In the US, gasoline and diesel demand rebounded, while jet fuel demand declined from its high due to the previous US government shutdown. As of the week ending November 7, gasoline demand was 9,028,000 barrels per day, an increase of 154,000 barrels per day from the previous period; diesel demand was 4,018,000 barrels per day, an increase of 308,000 barrels per day from the previous period; jet fuel demand was 1,636,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 45,000 barrels per day from the previous period. Diesel crack spread declined after rising, while gasoline crack spread was at a five - year high. US refinery estimated profit slightly declined, still at a moderately high level, and refinery utilization rate increased. [32][41][46] - In China, crude oil processing volume continued to grow. From June to October, China's crude oil processing volume increased year - on - year. In October, it was 63.43 million tons, an increase of 743,000 tons from the previous month and 3.892 million tons from the same period last year. [51] 4. Crude Oil Inventory - In the US, crude oil inventory increased significantly but remained at a low level in the past five years. As of the week ending November 7, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 427.581 million barrels, an increase of 6.413 million barrels from the previous period; SPR inventory was 410.393 million barrels, an increase of 798,000 barrels from the previous period. Gasoline and diesel continued to draw down inventory, while jet fuel inventory increased slightly. [57][63] - For OECD, the surplus pressure gradually increased. In October 2025, the global crude oil monthly supply was 108.18 million barrels per day, demand was 103.75 million barrels per day, and the supply - demand gap was 4.43 million barrels per day. OECD continued to accumulate inventory, with the inventory at the end of October at 2.903 billion barrels, an increase of 250 million barrels from the previous period. [70] 5. Summary and Outlook - The short - term oil price is range - bound, and geopolitical risks are a potential upward driving force. The downside space for crude oil is limited, with support at $55 for WTI crude oil. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - position opportunity near $55 for WTI crude oil and the long - position opportunity for option volatility due to geopolitical changes. [74]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are likely to remain in a range-bound fluctuation unless substantial driving factors emerge [1] Group 1: Market Assessment - The market is currently evaluating the impact of the EU's new sanctions on Russian oil [1] - Current oil prices are relatively stable due to this assessment [1] Group 2: Future Demand Concerns - U.S. President Trump's tariff threats may impact future fuel demand [1]