IEA预测，2025年剩余时间及2026年，全球原油需求日均增量约为70万桶，尽管今年第三季度需求已实 现日均75万桶的增长，但整体增速仍远低于历史趋势。第三季度原油需求增长，主要得益于石化原料需 求反弹，第二季度受关税影响，石化原料原油需求日均增量仅为42万桶，而第三季度石化原料需求回暖 拉动了整体增长。 供应方面，9月，在OPEC+产量增长带动下，全球原油供应环比增加76万桶/日，达到1.08亿桶/日。IEA 预计，未来原油供应将持续超过需求。2025年全球原油供应预计增加300万桶/日，达到1.061亿桶/ 日;2026年供应增幅预计为240万桶/日。分阵营来看，非OPEC+国家将成为供应增长的重要来源。 中化新网讯 近日，国际能源署(IEA)表示，受宏观经济疲软态势持续影响，2026年全球原油需求仍将保 持低迷。石化行业将成为原油需求增长的核心驱动力，但由于宏观经济表现不佳，石化行业对原油需求 的驱动作用将走弱。 IEA在10月《月度原油市场报告》中指出，当前原油需求增速预期仍远低于历史趋势，交通领域电动化 正持续压制原油消费增长。IEA表示："宏观经济表现不佳、车辆能效提升及电动汽车销量激增，都对 ...

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Core Viewpoint - Kazakhstan's oil supply to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline is projected to increase significantly in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong growth trend in oil exports from Kazakhstan to Europe [1] Group 1 - Kazakhstan's national oil transporter Kaztransoil reports a 46% year-on-year increase in crude oil supply to Germany [1] - The total volume of crude oil supplied to Germany is expected to reach 926,000 tons during the period from January to June 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kpler indicates that the growth rate of U.S. crude oil supply will be slower than expected for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, with a potential peak in production as early as this year due to low WTI prices testing the breakeven point for shale oil production [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices have dropped over 15% since early April, currently around $58.5 per barrel, which is still below the breakeven point for many shale oil wells [1][3] - OPEC+ recently decided to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day, nearly three times the planned increase, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: Production Forecast Adjustments - Kpler has revised its forecast for U.S. crude oil supply growth down by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, citing weak prices potentially slowing shale oil production [3] - The company expects U.S. crude oil production to peak in 2025 and then gradually decline [3][4] Group 3: Industry Sensitivity and Response - U.S. shale oil producers are highly sensitive to price changes and are likely to reduce drilling activities as profits decline [3] - The cautious approach of the U.S. oil industry is influenced by OPEC+'s recent actions aimed at capturing market share and constraining U.S. shale oil production [3]