12月22日，美元兑加元报1.3796，较前一交易日微涨0.0002，跌幅收窄至-0.0362%，日内波动1.3787- 1.3804。近期该货币对持续区间博弈，核心驱动为美加央行政策分化，叠加油价低迷、经济数据分化及 地缘风险，短期方向不明。 作为商品货币，加元持续受油价拖累。2025年油价累计跌15.2%，近期跌至10月下旬低位，布油曾破70 美元/桶，削弱加拿大原油出口收入，压制加元、支撑美元兑加元。此外，美国封锁委内瑞拉制裁油轮 航运、强化对俄能源制裁，引发供应担忧，推升美元避险需求，进一步压制加元。 技术面看，美元兑加元呈空头主导。日线图显示，汇价连续收于关键均线下方，短期均线空头排列， 1.3800上方阻力未突破；MACD零轴下死叉、动能柱放大，印证空头延续；RSI弱势未超卖，仍有下探 空间。 机构预测，短期核心波动区间1.3740-1.3830，支撑位1.3720—1.3680(跌破或加速下行)，阻力位1.3830、 1.3890(未收复则弱势延续)。后续焦点为美国CPI、美联储官员讲话，及加拿大核心通胀、油价、美加贸 易消息。中长期走势取决于政策分化持续性、油价复苏及加国经济进程，全球不确定性 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月11日消息，过去一年沙特股市远落后新兴市场，明年或难改观】过去一年新兴市场股市强劲反 弹，沙特股市却远远落后。投资者预计，因油价低迷且明年可能续跌，大宗商品交易商托克集团预 测"超级供过于求"，明年情况难有大改观。花旗集团分析师建议减持沙特股票，称其在盈利增长和发展 势头方面"表现不佳"。瑞士宝盛银行策略师表示，沙特股市与油价关联大，2026年油价或仍疲软，且无 法从美元走软中受益。今年沙特证券交易所综合指数已下跌11%，创2015年以来最大跌幅。 ...

格隆汇12月11日｜过去一年新兴市场股市强劲反弹，而沙特股市却远远落后。投资者表示，预计明年情 况不会有太大改观。鉴于油价低迷且明年可能继续下跌，且大宗商品交易商托克集团预测将出现"超级 供过于求"，投资者认为买入沙特股票的理由不多。花旗集团分析师建议投资者减持沙特股票，并表示 这些股票在盈利增长和发展势头方面"表现不佳"。"沙特股票仍然缺乏吸引力，"瑞士宝盛银行新兴市场 股票策略师内纳德·迪尼克表示，"首先，沙特股市仍然与油价密切相关，而油价在2026年可能仍将疲 软；其次，与其他大多数新兴市场股票不同，沙特股市无法从美元走软中受益。"今年沙特证券交易所 综合指数已下跌11%，创下2015年以来的最大跌幅。 ...

Geopolitical Implications - The report suggests a potential ceasefire agreement with Russia due to low oil prices [1] - The statement implies a link between oil market conditions and geopolitical negotiations [1] Energy Market - Low oil prices are a key factor influencing international relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's expectation of reaching a ceasefire agreement with Russia due to the current low oil prices [1] Group 1 - The low oil prices are influencing geopolitical negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and Russia [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump predicts that Ukraine will reach a ceasefire agreement with Russia due to low oil prices [1] Group 1 - The current low oil prices are influencing geopolitical dynamics, particularly in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict [1] - The expectation of a ceasefire agreement suggests potential shifts in energy markets and geopolitical stability [1]

Group 1 - Saudi Aramco reported a 4.6% decline in net profit for Q1, amounting to 97.5 billion Saudi Riyals (approximately $26 billion), primarily due to lower crude oil prices [1][3] - The company's total dividend for the quarter decreased to $21.36 billion, down from $31 billion in the same period last year, largely due to a significant cut in performance-linked dividends [3] - The average selling price of crude oil for Saudi Aramco in Q1 was $76.30 per barrel, lower than $83 per barrel in the previous year [4] Group 2 - The ongoing decline in oil prices, with Brent crude trading around $64 per barrel, is significantly below the $92 per barrel needed for Saudi Arabia's fiscal balance, indicating potential financial strain [4] - Major banks and energy institutions have lowered their oil price forecasts for the year, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicting an average Brent crude price of $65.85 per barrel [5] - Saudi Arabia's budget deficit could potentially double if oil prices remain around $62 per barrel, leading to increased borrowing, spending cuts, and asset sales [5]

Core Viewpoint - Kpler indicates that the growth rate of U.S. crude oil supply will be slower than expected for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, with a potential peak in production as early as this year due to low WTI prices testing the breakeven point for shale oil production [1][3] Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices have dropped over 15% since early April, currently around $58.5 per barrel, which is still below the breakeven point for many shale oil wells [1][3] - OPEC+ recently decided to increase production by 410,000 barrels per day, nearly three times the planned increase, contributing to downward pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: Production Forecast Adjustments - Kpler has revised its forecast for U.S. crude oil supply growth down by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, citing weak prices potentially slowing shale oil production [3] - The company expects U.S. crude oil production to peak in 2025 and then gradually decline [3][4] Group 3: Industry Sensitivity and Response - U.S. shale oil producers are highly sensitive to price changes and are likely to reduce drilling activities as profits decline [3] - The cautious approach of the U.S. oil industry is influenced by OPEC+'s recent actions aimed at capturing market share and constraining U.S. shale oil production [3]