Gold Market - Gold prices are currently in a critical phase, influenced by the decline in U.S. inflation data, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's expectations for a one-time impact from tariffs, strengthening market pricing for a rate cut [1] - The U.S. job market shows resilience, as indicated by initial jobless claims, which raises expectations for a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December, which could lead to a liquidity crisis and put short-term pressure on gold prices [1] - Short-term risks for gold prices are noted, but long-term trends suggest that rising U.S. federal debt will weaken the dollar's credibility, likely pushing gold prices higher [1] - Technical indicators show that gold is currently above the 20-day moving average, with resistance at $4220 and support at $4140 [1] Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and potential U.S. actions against Venezuela, have limited short-term support for oil prices [2] - OPEC+ is maintaining its current production policy without plans for an increase in the first quarter of next year, which helps mitigate the risk of oversupply [2] - U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with refinery utilization at 94%, indicating limited room for seasonal demand improvement [2] - Technical analysis indicates a risk of oil prices falling below the 20-day moving average, with a potential test of the $57 support level if downward momentum continues [2] U.S. Dollar Index - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggest there is still room for rate cuts, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [3] - Current market data indicates an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with only a 10.6% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, but improvements in ADP data have eased recession concerns, providing some support for the dollar [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been experiencing a period of adjustment, with potential for further upward movement if it stabilizes above the 62-day moving average [5] - Current support is noted at the 49706 level [5] Copper Market - Recent trading in copper has shown small declines, indicating potential short-term downward risks [6] - The market remains bullish as long as prices stay above the 62-day moving average, with support at $5.20 [6] Iraq Oil Production - Iraq has shut down the entire production capacity of the West Qurna 2 oil field due to pipeline leaks, affecting daily output of approximately 460,000 barrels [7] Russian Gold Export Restrictions - Russia plans to limit gold bar exports starting in 2026, which may impact global gold supply dynamics [8] Bank of Japan's Bond Purchases - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated a willingness to increase government bond purchases if long-term interest rates experience sharp fluctuations [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that international oil prices experienced slight fluctuations, with Brent crude oil prices increasing slightly while WTI prices decreased slightly as of November 14, 2025 [1][2] - In the first half of the week, China's crude oil imports increased, and the US dollar weakened, contributing to a rise in oil prices due to improved market risk appetite [1][2] - The latter part of the week saw a downward adjustment in OPEC's monthly report, indicating a supply surplus, which released bearish signals to the market [1][2] Group 2 - As of November 14, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.39 per barrel, up $0.76 per barrel (+1.19%), while WTI crude oil futures settled at $59.39 per barrel, down $0.45 per barrel (-0.75%) [2] - The price of Russian Urals crude remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while Russian ESPO crude decreased by $1.43 per barrel (-2.51%) to $55.47 per barrel [2] Group 3 - As of November 10, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 370, an increase of 1 rig from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling rigs decreased by 2 to 128 [3] - As of November 7, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.862 million barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous week [3] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 3 to 417 as of November 14, 2025 [3] Group 4 - As of November 7, 2025, US total crude oil inventories increased by 7.211 million barrels (+0.87%) to 838 million barrels [4] - The US gasoline inventory decreased by 0.946 million barrels (-0.46%), while diesel inventory decreased by 0.637 million barrels (-0.57%) [4] Group 5 - The report highlights relevant companies in the sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [5]