Group 1: Precious Metals - International gold prices have exceeded previous optimistic forecasts, with predictions for 2026 ranging from $4,800 to $5,500 per ounce, but prices have already surpassed this range early in the year [1] - As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of gold in London has increased by over 90%, while silver has surged by more than 200% [1] - The demand for precious metals is driven by factors such as weakening dollar credit, rising geopolitical tensions, and increased investment in gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are experiencing price increases supported by solid supply and demand fundamentals, with a projected annual growth rate of 1.5% for ten types of non-ferrous metals in China, which is below the expected consumption growth of 2.2% [3] - The price of copper has reached historical highs, leading to increased costs in the semiconductor manufacturing process, with futures prices for gold, silver, and copper expected to rise by over 50% by 2025 [3] - The chemical sector is also seeing price increases, particularly in dye products, where leading companies are able to raise prices due to supply constraints [3] Group 3: Energy Sector - International oil prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions and supply-demand rebalancing, with VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) daily rental rates reaching $15.7 million as of February 20, 2026, and further increasing to over $20 million shortly after [2][4] - The surge in oil tanker rental rates reflects a heightened perception of risk in the market, driven by geopolitical conflicts and the need for additional compensation for shipping [4] Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - The chemical sector is expected to become the new leading area for price increases, with low inventory levels and tightening supply constraints, while the market awaits demand signals [4] - The precious metals market is anticipated to experience strong fluctuations but maintain an upward trend in the medium term, supported by geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties [5] - The price increase logic is spreading from metals and semiconductors to broader sectors such as oil, construction materials, chemicals, and food and beverage industries, with AI and semiconductor sectors continuing to benefit [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals by CITIC Futures Research, dated February 27, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On February 26, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 2.00% to 589.5 yuan/gram, while the palladium main contract fell 2.27% to 446.55 yuan/gram [2] Group 3: Platinum Analysis Core View - The price of platinum is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the medium to long term due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro expectations [3] Main Logic - The US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs and Trump's attitude towards tariffs have raised market risk - aversion sentiment, strengthening the precious metals sector. The progress of US - Iran negotiations also affects market sentiment. In the long run, the US is in an interest - rate cut channel, and factors like the Fed's impaired independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order weaken the US dollar's credit, which is conducive to the release of platinum's long - term price elasticity [3] Group 4: Palladium Analysis Core View - The price of palladium is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the medium to long term, supported by short - term spot shortages and a better macro - environment [4] Main Logic - On the supply side, the US's anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Russian unforged palladium and Europe's consideration of new sanctions on Russian palladium have led to supply uncertainties and a tight spot market, supporting prices. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand situation tends to be loose, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations provide clear support for prices [4] Group 5: Index Performance Special Index - The commodity index was 2434.44, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index was 2790.14, up 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2314.11, down 0.02% [51] Sector Index (Non - ferrous Metals) - On February 26, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2719.10, with a daily increase of 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of 0.26%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.26%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.23% [53]

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-13 非农数据好于预期，铂钯价格小幅回落 据CNBC报道，隔夜公布的美国1⽉⾮农就业数据⼈⼝好于预期，失业率出 现下降。今⽇美元指数⼩幅⾛强，铂钯价格承压下⾏。据同花顺数据，截 ⾄2026年2⽉12⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价544.9元/克，跌幅 1.05%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为430.05元/克，跌幅1.48%。 铂观点：美国非农数据好于预期，铂金小幅回落 主要逻辑：据CNBC,美国1月非农就业人数增加13万，高于预期，失业率降 至4.3%。今日美元指数小幅走强，铂金价格承压回落。短期来看，当前欧 洲对俄罗斯铂族金属制裁预期抬升、美伊地缘问题反复、美联储降息预期 波动均持续扰动市场，加之长假临近资金交投趋于谨慎，市场仍处于震荡 整理的阶段。长期来看，美国仍处于降息通道中，特朗普造成的美联储独 立性受损和全球政治经济秩序松动，促使美元信用走弱的长期趋势延续， 有利于价格长期弹性的释放。策略方面，本周铂钯比值回落到偏低位区 间，建议择机关注多铂空钯机会。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，中长 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-11 静待关键数据，铂钯持稳整理 据华尔街⻅闻消息，美国1⽉⾮农就业报告因上周国会短暂预算纠纷，推 迟⾄本周三发布，此外，本周五还将发布1⽉CPI数据。在两⼤关键经济数 据出炉前，市场维持观望态度，铂⾦与钯⾦价格呈现窄幅震荡⾛势。据同 花顺数据，截⾄2026年2⽉10⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价545.05元/ 克，跌幅0.50%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为438.15元/克，跌幅1.06%。 铂观点：美国就业与通胀数据将揭晓，铂金窄幅震荡 主要逻辑：短期来看，当前欧洲对俄罗斯铂族金属制裁预期抬升、美伊地 缘问题反复、美联储降息预期波动均持续扰动市场，加之长假临近资金交 投趋于谨慎，市场仍处于震荡整理的阶段。长期来看，美国仍处于降息通 道中，特朗普造成的美联储独立性受损和全球政治经济秩序松动，促使美 元信用走弱的长期趋势延续，有利于价格长期弹性的释放。策略方面，本 周铂钯比值回落到偏低位区间，建议择机关注多铂空钯机会。 展望：震荡偏强。供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，中长期我们维持价 格震荡偏强预期。 钯观点：关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to significantly influence prices, with projections indicating further increases in gold prices by 2026 due to heightened geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and uncertainties in monetary and fiscal policies from the Federal Reserve [1][2][12]. Industry Fundamentals - Since 2025, factors such as tariff frictions, weakening dollar credit, and geopolitical tensions have driven gold prices up, with an annual increase exceeding 60% [1][4]. - The financial attributes of gold are becoming more pronounced, with expectations that gold prices will continue to rise in 2026 due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainties in U.S. monetary policy [2][12]. - The overall credit risk in the gold industry remains low, supported by the financial characteristics of gold and the improving profitability of gold companies [1][2][12]. Supply Dynamics - Gold supply has remained stable, with limited increases in mine production since 2025, while the recycling of gold has seen a slowdown despite rising prices [14][20]. - The global gold supply primarily comes from mining and recycling, with mining accounting for about 75% of total supply, and the elasticity of supply is relatively low [14][20]. - In 2025, gold production in Africa and North America has compensated for declines in Latin America, with significant increases in production expected from new projects [16][18]. Demand Trends - The demand for gold has shifted towards investment, with jewelry consumption declining due to high prices; central bank purchases and gold ETFs have seen increased demand [21][23][28]. - In 2025, global jewelry consumption fell by 20.18%, while investment demand, particularly in gold bars and coins, has risen significantly [23][24][28]. - Central banks have continued to increase their gold reserves, with net purchases reaching 633.6 tons in 2025, although the pace of buying has slowed due to high prices [26][28]. Financial Performance - Gold companies have seen significant increases in revenue and profitability due to rising gold prices, with total revenue for sample companies reaching 584.44 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.49% [32][35]. - The net profit for these companies has also increased, with a total of 632.82 billion yuan reported for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a growth of 57.89% [35]. - The operating cash flow of gold companies has improved significantly, with a 38.45% increase in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year [36][41]. Investment Activities - Many gold companies have engaged in mergers and acquisitions to expand their resource base, which has led to an increase in total debt, although the overall capital structure remains stable [39][40]. - The total debt of sample companies reached 3,088.15 billion yuan by September 2025, with an average debt ratio of 47.56% [40][41]. - Despite the increase in debt, the companies' ability to cover short-term liabilities has improved due to rising cash flows from operations [41].

Investment Rating - The report rates the overall credit quality of the gold industry as "stable improvement" for the next 12 to 18 months, indicating a positive outlook compared to the previous year's "stable" status [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and uncertainties in monetary and fiscal policies will significantly influence gold prices, which are expected to rise further in 2026. This will enhance the profitability and cash flow of gold enterprises, although increased debt levels may arise from mergers and acquisitions and inventory demands [4][6]. - The gold industry's overall performance is improving, with rising gold prices leading to increased profits and cash flow for most gold companies, thereby enhancing their debt repayment capabilities and overall credit levels [6][36]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The analysis focuses on the credit fundamentals of the gold industry by examining gold price trends and the factors affecting supply and demand, concluding that gold's financial attributes will have a more significant impact on prices amid economic uncertainties [7]. Industry Fundamentals - Gold prices have surged over 60% since 2025 due to factors like tariff frictions and geopolitical tensions, with expectations for continued upward movement in 2026. The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is strong, driven by central banks increasing their gold reserves [8][12]. - The report notes that gold supply is relatively stable, with limited increases in mine production and a slowdown in recycled gold supply growth due to high price expectations [16][20]. Financial Performance - The financial performance of gold companies has improved significantly, with total revenues for sample companies increasing by 11.48% and 22.49% year-on-year in 2024 and the first nine months of 2025, respectively [40]. - The net profit for sample companies reached 632.82 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 57.89% increase year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices and production levels [43]. - Operating cash flow has also seen substantial growth, with a 38.30% increase in 2024 and a 38.45% increase in the first nine months of 2025, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [45]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the gold industry is experiencing a favorable environment with rising prices, improved profitability, and enhanced cash flow. However, the ongoing pursuit of mergers and acquisitions may increase financial pressure on companies. The outlook for gold prices remains positive due to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [52][53].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold, driven by increasing risk aversion and weakening dollar credit, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and growing demand for gold investments [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Risk aversion has intensified, leading to a surge in precious metal prices, particularly gold [1] - The trend of weakening dollar credit is accelerating in the short term, supporting the rise in gold prices [1] - Central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand are expected to continue driving up precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend of weakening dollar credit has become clearer since Trump's administration, enhancing gold's monetary attributes [1] - The central tendency of gold prices is expected to rise, with investors encouraged to consider buying on dips and gradually building positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and specific gold ETFs, such as the tax-exempt gold fund ETF (518800) and gold stock ETF (517400), are recommended for investors [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting three main hotspots, including a collective drop in popular sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and humanoid robots [6][7] - It emphasizes the risk of rapid style switching in the market, where certain high-temperature sectors may face significant declines if funds abandon them [7][8] - The article notes that the current influx of capital is primarily through sector funds and index funds, which complicates the process of value discovery within the same sector [8][11] Group 2 - The article mentions a significant drop in the stock prices of leading companies in the aerospace sector, such as Aerospace Electronics and China Satellite, indicating a broader trend of declining valuations in the sector [9][11] - It highlights the recent high trading volumes of ETFs, suggesting that market activity remains strong despite the overall downturn in certain sectors [14] - The article points out that gold and silver have seen substantial price increases, with gold prices surpassing $5,000 and silver showing a year-to-date gain of over 50% [19][20][22] Group 3 - The article discusses Tencent's potential strategic moves in the Hong Kong market, particularly in AI applications, as the company aims to enhance its market share through user engagement [29][33] - It notes that the overall performance of the Hong Kong stock market is influenced by external factors, including declines in the Japanese and U.S. markets [29][31] - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced investment strategy in the current market environment, particularly in light of the recent volatility in high-temperature sectors [37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][58]. Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: The price of precious metals has surged due to heightened risk aversion, with the COMEX gold futures contract reaching $4983.1 per ounce, an increase of 8.3% month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.1% increase to 1087 tons. Factors such as the U.S. imposing tariffs on European countries opposing its claim over Greenland and potential sales of U.S. Treasury bonds by Europe have contributed to this trend. The weakening dollar credit is expected to continue, supporting the upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Industrial Metals: There is optimism regarding the upward trend in industrial metal prices, particularly copper, aluminum, and tin, driven by tightening supply and increasing demand [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Gold: As of January 23, the COMEX gold futures price reached $4983.1 per ounce, reflecting an 8.3% increase. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.1% to 1087 tons. The ongoing U.S. debt issues and central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the long term [4]. 2. Industrial Metals - Copper: As of January 23, the SHFE copper futures price rose by 0.57% to 101340 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory was 330,200 tons, while LME copper inventory was 171,700 tons. The tightening supply expectations and the anticipated Fed rate cuts are expected to drive copper prices higher [6]. - Aluminum: The SHFE aluminum futures price increased by 1.5% to 24290 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory was 743,000 tons. The market is expected to see stable prices with a tightening supply-demand balance [6]. - Tin: The SHFE tin futures price rose by 6% to 429,600 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory was 10,678 tons. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues and increasing demand from AI technology are expected to keep tin prices elevated [6]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: - Gold: Continued uncertainty in overseas macro conditions supports gold's safe-haven attributes. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. - Copper: Domestic demand recovery and tightening supply are expected to support copper prices. Recommended stock: Luoyang Molybdenum. - Aluminum: The strong supply-demand dynamics are expected to drive aluminum prices higher. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [7][55].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a steady upward trend, driven by unresolved U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credibility, with increasing central bank gold purchases and investment demand for gold [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The macroeconomic uncertainties abroad continue to amplify gold's safe-haven attributes in the medium term [1] - The long-term trend indicates that since Trump's administration, the weakening of dollar credibility has become increasingly evident, enhancing gold's monetary properties [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - In the medium to long term, gold prices are expected to rise further, suggesting that investors may consider participating during subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) as well as gold stock ETFs covering the entire gold industry chain (517400) are recommended for investors [1]