投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 贵金属剧烈调整，关注1月非农 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-1-5 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 | ◆ 上周金银整体冲高回落，显著调整。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）在极致的 | | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | "轧空"行情下，周初贵金属价格大幅拉升，伦敦现货黄金一度突破4550美元/盎司 | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4332.505 | 4532.505 | -200 | -4.41% | | 关口，伦敦现货白银一度突破83.9美元/盎司，双双再创历史新高。随后，贵金属市 | 沪金主力 | 元/克 | 977.56 | 1016.30 | -38.74 | -3.81% | | 场开 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unprecedented surge in gold and silver prices, with silver experiencing a particularly dramatic increase due to various market factors [1][3][30] - On December 22, the international gold price broke through 997 yuan per gram, reaching a historical high, and stabilized around 1000 yuan per gram by December 29 [1][2] - Silver prices saw a significant increase, with a 36.59% rise over 23 trading days from November 21 to December 23, and reaching 17.1 yuan per gram by December 29 [3][4] Group 2 - The cumulative increase in international gold prices this year is approximately 70%, while silver has exceeded 170%, significantly outperforming gold [4] - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and expectations of continued interest rate cuts, leading to a more accommodative global monetary environment [6][7][8] - The decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver, making them more attractive compared to cash [10][11] Group 3 - Domestic capital inflows have intensified, driven by a stagnant A-share market, prompting investors to seek certainty in gold and silver as safe-haven assets [14] - The global geopolitical landscape, including tensions in various regions, has heightened risk aversion, further driving investment into gold and silver [15][16] Group 4 - The industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly in emerging sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, while supply is constrained, leading to a structural shortage [19][22][23] - By 2025, the global silver supply is projected to face a significant shortfall of approximately 3600 tons, the largest in recent years [24] Group 5 - Recent policy changes in India allowing citizens to use silver as collateral for loans have led to a surge in silver imports, further driving up prices [27][28] - The tightness in the London silver market has created upward pressure on prices, as short positions face significant delivery challenges [29]

12月26日下午，沪深两市震荡上行，盘面上，贵金属板块集体拉升。截至13点50分，有色金属 ETF(159871)涨3.92%，永兴材料、江西铜业、国城矿业涨停10%，中矿资源涨超8%，紫金矿业等涨超 4%！ 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 华创证券2026年度投资策略认为，黄金方面，央行购金支撑黄金长期需求，中国央行黄金储备仍有上行 空间;降息周期助推投资金需求走强。 白银方面，供需持续有缺口&国内低库存支撑，银价上涨弹性 强。投资建议上面建议看好逆全球化下美元信用走弱带来的贵金属长期配置价值。 综合看，有色金属板块长期景气趋势延续，建议关注有色金属ETF(159871)把握结构性机会。 消息面上，12月26日，国际现货金、银价格再创历史新高。自12月25日夜盘时段起，贵金属价格再度强 势走高，并一直延续到12月26日亚洲时段开盘。现货黄金（伦敦金现）一度触及每盎司4531.284美元的 创纪录高位。现货白银（伦敦银现）连续突破每盎司73美元、74美元和75美元关口，最高触及75.142美 元/盎司。 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals prices have surged, with spot gold exceeding $4500 per ounce and silver surpassing $72 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [3] - The A-share market saw mixed reactions, with mining ETFs initially rising before retreating, and some stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold closing lower [3] - Analysts believe that the weakening of the US dollar's credibility is becoming clearer, enhancing gold's monetary attributes and supporting its long-term outlook [3][4] Group 2 - The London spot gold reached a daily high of $4525.19 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 70%, while silver saw a rise of approximately 140% [3] - Several A-share stocks, including Xingye Yinxin, Zijin Mining, and Chifeng Gold, have increased by over 100% this year, supported by improved industry profitability [4] - The global gold ETF holdings have risen for six consecutive months, reaching 3932 tons by the end of November, with China being the largest single source of net inflows [6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin a rate-cutting cycle by September 2025, alongside escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to the continued rise in gold and silver prices [5] - Historical data indicates that gold has outperformed the S&P 500 in 7 out of 8 past rate-cutting cycles initiated by the Federal Reserve [6] - Institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for precious metals, with some projecting gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6]

以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 统计显示，黄金股ETF近8个交易日有6个交易日获资金净申购，合计"吸金"1.09亿元，截至12月15日， 最新份额达12.92亿份，最新规模达28.35亿元，均创近1月新高。 平安证券分析指出，美联储降息落地，美联储启动储备管理购买计划，准备再次通过购买短期美国国债 来扩大其资产负债表。金价本周震荡上行。12 月美联储降息或将推动金价逐步上移，长期来看，美国 债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，央行购金以及黄金投资需求增长，贵金属价格重心或继 续抬升。 12月16日，三大指数集体回调，叠加COMEX黄金期货价格走低，黄金相关产品纷纷下挫，截至 10:21，黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.78%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)跌2.37%，黄金股ETF(159562)下跌 2.60%，其持仓股涨跌互现，益民集团领涨2.06%，潮宏基、菜百股份等股领涨；西部黄金跌4.99%，晓 程科技、株冶集团、西部黄金等股纷纷走低。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 继黄金、白银价格大幅拉涨后，有色商品的大涨"接力棒"传递到了铂、钯。 12月15日，国内期货市场铂、钯主力合约领涨。截至下午收盘，铂2606合约涨停，报涨7%；钯2606报 涨4.73%。 "今年铂金属价格呈现阶段性上涨态势，较年初已累计上涨98.67%。"卓创资讯富宝贵金属分析师黄加奇 接受证券时报记者采访时表示，年内铂金走势表现出"三波上涨"： "当前市场主要是避险买盘驱动贵金属价格上涨，例如黄金价格上涨带来的外溢效应。市场目前担忧美 国科技股泡沫破灭，且美联储货币宽松和高企的债务进一步导致美元信用走弱。"华闻期货有限公司总 经理助理程小勇在分析近期铂价大涨时也表示，除宏观因素外，当前铂的供应持续下降。 第一波发生于5月至7月，由于南非一季度生产面临极端天气、矿体老化、限电政策和政局不稳定 性干扰，南非一季度铂族金属产量同比下降13%，全球铂金矿端总供应量2025年一季度同比下滑 13%至34吨，为2020年第二季度以来最低季度产量。而库存的反馈具有一定滞后性，二季度国际 市场铂金可交割货源紧张，推升了铂金价格。 第二波上涨发生于8 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [57] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, gold prices have shown an upward trend, with the COMEX gold futures contract reaching $4329.8 per ounce, a 2.42% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 0.3% increase to 1053 tons. The Fed's decision to lower the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75% is expected to support gold prices in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [4] - Industrial Metals: The fundamentals for copper are tightening, and there is an optimistic outlook for copper prices. As of December 12, the SHFE copper futures contract rose 1.4% to 94080 yuan/ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 163,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. The LME copper inventory stood at 165,900 tons. The tightening supply of copper is expected to drive prices higher [5][6] - Aluminum: The LME aluminum futures contract fell 0.9% to $2875 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. The macroeconomic environment is expected to support aluminum prices, which are likely to remain stable [6] - Tin: The SHFE tin futures contract increased by 4.9% to 333,000 yuan/ton. Supply concerns due to geopolitical issues in the Congo and export regulations in Indonesia are expected to tighten the market further [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to macroeconomic uncertainties and the Fed's interest rate cut, with a focus on the long-term investment in gold [4][5] Industrial Metals - Copper: The market is experiencing tightening supply, with a recommendation to focus on the copper sector due to expected price increases [6] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to maintain high levels of volatility, supported by macroeconomic factors [6] - Tin: Supply constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to potential price increases [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors: - Gold: Recommended stock is Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining - Copper: Recommended stock is Luoyang Molybdenum - Aluminum: Recommended stock is Tianshan Aluminum [7]

Gold Market - Gold prices are currently in a critical phase, influenced by the decline in U.S. inflation data, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's expectations for a one-time impact from tariffs, strengthening market pricing for a rate cut [1] - The U.S. job market shows resilience, as indicated by initial jobless claims, which raises expectations for a hawkish rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December, which could lead to a liquidity crisis and put short-term pressure on gold prices [1] - Short-term risks for gold prices are noted, but long-term trends suggest that rising U.S. federal debt will weaken the dollar's credibility, likely pushing gold prices higher [1] - Technical indicators show that gold is currently above the 20-day moving average, with resistance at $4220 and support at $4140 [1] Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the slow progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and potential U.S. actions against Venezuela, have limited short-term support for oil prices [2] - OPEC+ is maintaining its current production policy without plans for an increase in the first quarter of next year, which helps mitigate the risk of oversupply [2] - U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with refinery utilization at 94%, indicating limited room for seasonal demand improvement [2] - Technical analysis indicates a risk of oil prices falling below the 20-day moving average, with a potential test of the $57 support level if downward momentum continues [2] U.S. Dollar Index - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggest there is still room for rate cuts, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [3] - Current market data indicates an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with only a 10.6% chance of maintaining current rates [3] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has created a data vacuum, but improvements in ADP data have eased recession concerns, providing some support for the dollar [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has been experiencing a period of adjustment, with potential for further upward movement if it stabilizes above the 62-day moving average [5] - Current support is noted at the 49706 level [5] Copper Market - Recent trading in copper has shown small declines, indicating potential short-term downward risks [6] - The market remains bullish as long as prices stay above the 62-day moving average, with support at $5.20 [6] Iraq Oil Production - Iraq has shut down the entire production capacity of the West Qurna 2 oil field due to pipeline leaks, affecting daily output of approximately 460,000 barrels [7] Russian Gold Export Restrictions - Russia plans to limit gold bar exports starting in 2026, which may impact global gold supply dynamics [8] Bank of Japan's Bond Purchases - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated a willingness to increase government bond purchases if long-term interest rates experience sharp fluctuations [9]

有色金属 2025 年 12 月 8 日 有色金属周报 现货基本面快速收紧，多金属价格共振上行 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24-11 25-02 25-05 25-08 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：降息预期偏强，金价震荡走高。截至 12.5，COMEX 金主力合约达 4227.7 美元/盎司，环比下跌 0.67%。SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比增加 0.5%为 1050 吨。10 月美国制造业 PMI 为 48.7，环比下行 0.4 个百分点。周内金价随降息预期变化呈震荡走势。短期来看，金 价受预期不明朗影响，或仍呈现较强震荡。长期来看，美国债务问题 未解，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，央行购金以及黄金投资需求增 长，贵金属价格重心或继续上移，短期等待短期新的上涨驱动发酵。 工业金属：现货基本面快速收 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to outperform in 2025, driven by weakening US dollar credit and the AI technology revolution [1] - Non-ferrous metals are anticipated to become the "oil" of a new round of industrial chain transformation, widely used in semiconductors, AI computing infrastructure, and new energy systems [1] - Significant price increases for industrial metals like COMEX copper and LME tin are expected in 2025, although the supply-demand gap is not apparent, indicating financial pricing attributes for future supply-demand relationships [1] Group 2 - By 2026, as global narratives may converge, non-ferrous metals will shift from long-term pricing to a combination of short and long-term pricing, with real demand pricing power increasing [1] - Structural support may arise from "anti-involution" policies and export demand driven by industrialization in southern countries [1] - The Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects representative stocks from the non-ferrous metals industry, covering sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [1]