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原油成品油早报-20260320
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 03:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the impact of the US - Iran situation on the global crude oil market supply has escalated. The VLCC still cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and about 10 million barrels per day of Middle - Eastern production has been shut down. The IEA announced the largest - ever emergency oil reserve release, but it cannot fundamentally solve the problem of upstream production interruption. The core lies in the duration of the Strait blockade. The crude oil forward curve currently prices in an interruption disturbance of about 30 days, but the disturbance is expected to last longer. Next week, the international crude oil market still faces upward price risks [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - The US Treasury issued a new general license related to Russian oil, allowing the delivery and sale of Russian - origin crude oil and petroleum products loaded on ships before March 12 until April 11, 2026, excluding transactions involving North Korea, Cuba and Crimea. This is part of the Trump administration's attempt to stabilize energy prices [3] - The IEA announced that Japan, Canada and South Korea will be the main contributors to the large - scale emergency oil reserve release due to the Iran war. Member states have contributed 426 million barrels of oil, with 172 million barrels from the US [4] - The Israeli military chief of staff said that Israel's military operation against Iran "is not even halfway through", and there is no end - time schedule [4] - The US will not implement a crude oil export ban [4] - The US Treasury Secretary said the US may use Iranian oil to lower prices, and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days and may release strategic oil reserves again [5] - Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port has resumed oil - loading operations [5] - Iranian MPs are considering a bill to levy tolls and taxes on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [5] 2. Weekly Inventory - In the week of March 13, US crude oil exports increased by 1.464 million barrels per day to 4.898 million barrels per day. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 100,000 barrels to 13.668 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449 million barrels, a 1.39% increase. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.041 million barrels per day, a 2.14% increase year - on - year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained at 415.4 million barrels. Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 7.194 million barrels per day, an increase of 772,000 barrels per day from the previous week. EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 5.436 million barrels, and EIA refined oil inventory decreased by 2.527 million barrels [5] 3. Price Data - From March 13 - 19, WTI prices fluctuated, with a final decrease of 0.18; BRENT prices rose by 1.27; DUBAI prices rose by 1.40. Other related products also showed corresponding price changes [3]
原油成品油早报-20260319
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 03:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the impact of the US-Iran situation on the global crude oil market supply has escalated. VLCCs still cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and about 10 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern production has been shut down. The International Energy Agency has announced the largest - scale emergency oil reserve release in history, but it cannot fundamentally alleviate the upstream production interruption problem. The core depends on the duration of the strait blockade. The crude oil forward curve currently prices the interruption disturbance for about 30 days, but the disturbance time is expected to be longer, and the international crude oil market still faces upward price risks next week [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From March 12 to March 18, 2026, WTI increased by 0.11 to 96.32, BRENT increased by 3.96 to 107.38, and DUBAI increased by 13.58 to 136.42. Other indicators such as SC, OMAN, and various refined oil products also had corresponding price changes [3] 3.2 Daily News - Saudi Arabia's foreign minister stated that the little trust left with Iran has completely broken down - Iran's energy facilities were attacked, and Iran vowed to strike the oil facilities of three Middle - Eastern countries in retaliation - Trump hopes that Israel will suspend further attacks on Iran's energy facilities - US Vice - President Vance will hold a closed - door meeting with oil executives and announce several measures to deal with oil prices within 24 to 48 hours [3][5][6] 3.3 Weekly Inventory - In the week of March 13, US crude oil exports increased by 1.464 million barrels per day to 4.898 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 100,000 barrels to 13.668 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449 million barrels, with a growth rate of 1.39%. EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 5.436 million barrels, and EIA refined oil inventory decreased by 2.527 million barrels [6]
原油成品油早报-20260318
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 01:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the impact of the US - Iran situation on the global crude oil market supply has escalated. VLCCs still cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and about 10 million barrels per day of Middle - East production has been shut down. The US launched an air strike on Kharg Island over the weekend, but Iran's crude oil export facilities were not damaged. The US called on its allies to jointly maintain the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency announced the largest - scale emergency oil reserve release in history, with 32 member countries planning to release about 400 million barrels of oil. However, the release speed is restricted by logistics and transportation organizations and cannot fundamentally relieve the upstream production interruption problem. The core depends on the duration of the strait blockade. Currently, the forward curve of crude oil prices is pricing in an interruption disturbance of about 30 days, but according to the current situation, the disturbance time is expected to be longer. Next week, the international crude oil market still faces upward price risks [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From March 11 to March 17, 2026, WTI increased by $2.71 to $96.21, BRENT increased by $3.21 to $103.42, and DUBAI decreased by $7.06 to $122.84. Other price indicators such as BRENT 1 - 2 month spread, WTI - BRENT, etc., also showed corresponding changes [3]. - For domestic and other related products, OMAN increased by $6.21 to $149.84, domestic gasoline remained at 9400, and domestic diesel increased by 327 to 7438. Other indicators also had their respective changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iraq and the Kurdish region reached an agreement to resume oil exports through the Kurdish pipeline on Wednesday morning local time. Iraq can transport at least 150,000 - 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day from Kirkuk through the northern pipeline, and the Kurdish region can transport 210,000 barrels per day [3]. - Iraq is negotiating with Iran to ensure that some of its oil tankers can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Due to the Middle - East war, Iraq has reduced its daily crude oil production from about 4.2 million barrels to just over 1 million barrels [4]. - The Trump administration intends to further relax sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry to increase crude oil production in response to rising oil prices. Measures may include issuing more individual licenses and establishing a broader mechanism [4]. - Iran launched an attack on a large - scale natural gas field in the UAE, causing a fire and suspending operations. This is Iran's first attack on the UAE's upstream oil and gas facilities in the war [5]. 3.3 Weekly Inventory - For the week ending March 13, the US API crude oil inventory was 6.556 million barrels, with an expected 73,000 barrels and a previous value of - 1.678 million barrels. The API gasoline inventory was - 4.56 million barrels, with an expected - 1.815 million barrels and a previous value of - 1.838 million barrels. The API refined oil inventory was - 1.394 million barrels, with an expected - 1.721 million barrels and a previous value of - 2.257 million barrels [5].
原油成品油早报-20260316
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the impact of the US - Iran situation on the global crude oil market supply has escalated. VLCCs cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz, about 10 million barrels per day of Middle - East production has been shut down. The US launched an air - strike on Kharg Island over the weekend, but Iran's crude oil export facilities were not damaged. The US called on its allies to jointly safeguard the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA announced the largest - ever emergency oil reserve release, with 32 member countries planning to release about 400 million barrels of oil, but it cannot fundamentally solve the problem of upstream production interruption. The core issue still depends on the duration of the strait blockade. Currently, the forward curve of crude oil prices reflects an expected disruption of about 30 days, but the actual disruption time is expected to be longer. Next week, the international crude oil market still faces upward price risks [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - France is planning a joint naval mission with partners to ensure the safe passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and the French foreign minister will discuss this with EU foreign ministers on Monday [3] - Israel's military operation against Iran will last at least three more weeks, with thousands of targets remaining to be hit. Israel aims to "severely weaken the Iranian regime" [4] - Iran's foreign minister says the end of the war depends on two conditions: ensuring the war does not resume and receiving compensation. Iran welcomes regional initiatives to end the war fairly and the Strait of Hormuz is open to all except US and its allies' ships [4] - Iran's diplomatic communication with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and surrounding countries continues [4] - Israeli senior officials say the possibility of overthrowing the Iranian regime is lower than initially estimated [4] - After the US air - strike on Kharg Island, the storage tanks were intact and two Iranian tankers started loading 2.7 million barrels of crude oil [5] - Only 77 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz from March 1st to the present [5] Weekly Inventory - In the week ending March 6th, US crude oil exports decreased by 563,000 barrels per day to 3.434 million barrels per day [6] - In the week ending March 6th, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 18,000 barrels to 13.678 million barrels per day [6] - Commercial crude inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.824 million barrels to 443 million barrels, a 0.87% increase [6] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.043 million barrels per day, a 1.85% increase year - on - year [6] - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 100,000 barrels to 415.4 million barrels, a 0.0% increase [6] - In the week ending March 6th, US commercial crude imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.422 million barrels per day, an increase of 98,000 barrels per day from the previous week [6]