1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract rose and then pulled back. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range, at 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 43.37%. Downstream demand continued to increase, and inventory continued to decline. Overall, the spot market was relatively stable. There were signs of easing in the US - Iran situation, and the decline in oil prices led to an adjustment in the black series. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 axis. The reference view is oscillating bearish, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,120.00 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the position volume was 870,166 lots, down 30,886 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 35,320 lots, up 23,515 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread was - 29 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,613 tons, unchanged. The HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 167 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,440.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 140.00 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 40.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 782.00 yuan/wet ton, down 3.00 yuan; the price of first - class coking coal at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax) was 2,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 16,996.84 million tons, down 105.83 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 49.76 million tons, down 2.59 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 691.73 million tons, up 3.95 million tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 239.94 million tons, down 9.59 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.05%, up 1.25 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 86.65%, up 1.10 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 197.87 million tons, down 5.46 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 43.37%, down 1.20 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 219.16 million tons, down 17.04 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 642.75 million tons, down 10.46 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,375 million tons, up 19 million tons; the net export volume of steel products was 747.00 million tons, up 18.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 3.80%, down 5.60 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 17.20%, down 6.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, down 2.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 659,890 million square meters, down 124,518 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 58,770 million square meters, down 53,686 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 40,236.00 million square meters, up 3,516.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to comprehensive reports from CCTV News and other media, the White House said on Tuesday that US President Trump would give a national speech at 21:00 on April 1st, Eastern Time (9:00 on April 2nd, Beijing Time) to issue an "important update" on the Iran issue. From March 23rd to March 29th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 3.3472 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 77.1% and a year - on - year increase of 4.5% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The methanol market should be treated strongly as imports are difficult to replenish. In the short - term, it will be strong after a callback, but there is a high risk of chasing high prices. Attention should be paid to the current US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of March 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.50 tons, a decrease of 5.04 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39%. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 28.39 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.64%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 115.55 tons, a decrease of 10.62 tons from the previous data. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.57%, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The restart of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei Phase II plant and the increase in the load of Tianjin Bohua led to an increase in industry start - up [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Iranian troops attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker in the anchorage area of Dubai Port, causing damage to the hull and a fire, marking an escalation of shipping attacks in the Persian Gulf. China's official manufacturing PMI in March was 50.4, with an expected value of 50.1 and a previous value of 49. In March, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. US media reported that Trump was willing to end the Iran war with the Strait of Hormuz closed. Iran insisted that it had not negotiated with the US since the war broke out, and the Iranian parliament approved the collection of tolls on the strait, which must be paid in the Iranian local currency [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The situation in the Middle East has become more tense, crude oil prices have risen sharply, and methanol prices have fluctuated more severely in the short - term due to the situation. Considering the damaged facilities and production capacity in the war, it is difficult for the subsequent supply to recover quickly. Overall, it will still be treated strongly after a short - term callback. High - risk chasing in the short - term is not advisable [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific views on individual futures varieties: - **Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1][8][12] - **Bearish**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, red dates [1][3][5] - **Caution for correction**: Cotton [1][12] - **Differentiated performance**: Live pigs [1][17] Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. The unresolved US - Iran situation restricts the adjustment space, and the market is waiting for next week's important US soybean data report. Pay attention to the final result of Brazilian soybean export quarantine [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline. The upcoming peak of Canadian rapeseed arrivals in April will bring supply pressure, making it weaker than soybean meal. It is advisable to wait and see [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. The US - Iran situation and increased export data in March indicate de - stocking, but be cautious about long positions as production may recover in April [1][7][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish, driven by the US - Iran situation, positive expectations for US biodiesel policy, and the palm oil market. However, there is a risk of inventory accumulation after the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in April [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish. The current low inventory provides support, but further upward movement requires the impetus from the crude oil market. Be cautious about long positions in far - month contracts [1]. - **Cotton**: Be vigilant about correction. US cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term, but in China, there is a risk of demand front - loading and high import volumes, which may lead to a correction [1][10][12]. - **Red Dates**: Under pressure. The market trading sentiment is strong due to external factors, but the off - season supply - demand pattern and rising temperature limit the upward drive [1][13][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Differentiated performance. The current double - loss of piglets and fattened pigs may accelerate sow culling, but the high supply base remains. Near - month contracts are under pressure, while far - month contracts may offer opportunities [1][16][17]. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,937 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [3]. - **Inventory and Production**: As of March 1, 2026, Argentina's factory soybean inventory was 1.422326 million tons, and the 2 - month soybean crushing volume was 1.988691 million tons [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term weak and volatile, affected by the US - Iran situation and waiting for US soybean data [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of March 25, 2026, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions was 367,000 tons, a decrease of 38,800 tons from the previous week [5]. - **Price and Trading**: The market price fluctuated, and the spot trading volume on March 27 was zero. The upcoming arrival of Canadian rapeseed in April will bring supply pressure [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term decline, weaker than soybean meal. Pay attention to inventory, crude oil, and soybean meal trends [1][5]. Palm Oil - **Price and Trading**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9,768 yuan/ton, up 1.60% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,660 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [7]. - **Inventory and Export**: The weekly commercial inventory was 808,200 tons, a decrease of 33,800 tons. Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 increased by 50.42% compared to the same period last month [7][8]. - **Market Outlook**: Short - term bullish, but be cautious about long positions due to potential production recovery in April [1][8]. Cotton - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 was 15,395 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day. The spot price of CCIndex (3218B) was 16,814 yuan/ton, up 0.41% [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Brazil's cotton production is expected to decrease by 6.9% in 2025/26. In China, the import of cotton and cotton yarn increased in January - February, and the downstream demand is relatively strong, but there is a risk of demand front - loading [10][11][12]. - **Market Outlook**: US cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction in the Chinese market [1][12]. Red Dates - **Price and Inventory**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 was 8,870 yuan/ton, up 0.40% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 11,459 tons, a decrease of 81 tons from the previous week [13]. - **Market Situation**: The market is in the off - season, and the consumption demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The trading sentiment is cautious [13][14]. - **Market Outlook**: Under pressure, be cautious about the rebound height [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Price and Inventory**: The futures price of the main contract Ih2605 was 9,965 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 9,370 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The double - loss of piglets and fattened pigs may accelerate sow culling, but the short - term pressure remains [16][17]. - **Market Outlook**: Near - month contracts are under pressure, while far - month contracts may have opportunities [1][17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the uncertain situation between the US and Iran and unstable international oil prices, and the recent rise of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar driven by rising oil prices, the view on sugar price trends turns to wait - and - see [5]. - For cotton, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the increase in the opening rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [9]. - For protein meal, Trump's proposed visit to China is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal, while the relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is negative. Overall, the price of protein meal fluctuates greatly and lacks certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [12]. - For oils, the current price trend of oils mainly depends on the US - Iran event. Before the event ends, with high oil prices and the expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports, a bullish view is maintained in the medium term [15]. - For eggs, the supply is generally sufficient, but the shortage of small eggs and seasonal stocking make the spot price strong, but the short - term upside is limited. For the futures, hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [18]. - For pigs, the supply - side fundamentals have limited room for improvement. The spot price is still weak in the short term. For the futures, consider shorting on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts [21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: - The consulting firm Safras&Mercado predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 season will decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and production will drop from 43.5 million tons to 40.3 million tons due to high energy prices [4]. - From January to February 2026, China's sugar imports increased by 440,000 tons compared with the same period last year [4]. - In February, China's cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; single - month sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; and industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons [4]. - As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production was 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait - and - see due to the unstable international oil prices [5]. Cotton - **Market Information**: - Trump announced a planned visit to China from May 14 to 15, and China and the US are in communication about it [7]. - From January to February 2026, China's cotton imports increased by 110,000 tons compared with the same period last year, and cotton yarn imports increased by 80,000 tons [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports [7]. - From March 12 to 19, the US current - year cotton export sales were 52,900 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.2449 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 154,400 tons; exports to China were 3,300 tons, and the cumulative exports to China were 109,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,500 tons [7]. - As of the week of March 27, the spinning mill opening rate was 78.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.5 percentage points [7]. - The USDA predicts that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season will be 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from the February prediction and 540,000 tons from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 64.42%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the February prediction and 2.4 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term positive for US cotton prices, and consider going long on dips in the medium term [9]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: - Trump announced a planned visit to China from May 14 to 15, and China and the US are in communication about it [11]. - From March 5 to 12, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative exports were 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; exports to China were 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons [11]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 16.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons [11]. - The USDA predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons from the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from the February prediction and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term positive for US soybean prices, but the relaxation of Brazilian soybean import inspection standards is negative. Short - term wait - and - see [12]. Oils - **Market Information**: - The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set the total biofuel compliance obligation at 26.81 billion RINs in 2026 and 27.02 billion RINs in 2027, and large refineries are required to bear 70% of the exemption quota [14]. - The President of Indonesia said that coal, crude palm oil and its derivatives producers in Indonesia cannot export related products before meeting domestic demand [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons [14]. - In February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; exports were 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons [14]. - As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons and basically the same as the same period last year [14]. - In the week of March 20, the domestic sample data of the three major oils inventory was 1.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 95,000 tons [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Bullish in the medium term due to the US - Iran event and the expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: - Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were partially stable, with some low - price areas rising and high - price areas falling. The supply of large - sized eggs in the production area is abundant, while the supply of small - sized eggs is still tight. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the procurement volume may increase slightly, but the increase is limited [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is generally sufficient, but the shortage of small eggs and seasonal stocking make the spot price strong, but the short - term upside is limited. Hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: - Over the weekend, the decline of domestic pig prices slowed down, with some rising, some falling and some stable. At the end of the month, the reduction of supply by some farmers and the support of second - fattening purchases made pig prices run strongly. Some farmers are waiting and seeing, while some are clearing inventory [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side fundamentals have limited room for improvement. The spot price is still weak in the short term. Consider shorting on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market's short - term outlook for the negotiation between the US and Iran is not optimistic, and risk appetite has significantly declined. A - share trading volume has shrunk, and risky assets are still under pressure. The bond market may weaken in the short term. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1][3][13][17][19] - The dollar index is expected to rise in the short term. For stock index futures, it is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see. For bond futures, short - term operations should be fast - in and fast - out, closely following the war situation. For various commodities, different investment suggestions are provided according to their respective fundamentals [14][18][20] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US initial jobless claims met market expectations. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities to April 6th, and the market's short - term expectation for the negotiation agreement has decreased, leading to a weakening of risk appetite. The US dollar index is expected to rise in the short term [11][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Trump will visit China in mid - May. A - share trading volume has shrunk below 2 trillion yuan, and the stock index rebound is blocked. The US - Iran situation remains deadlocked, and risky assets are under pressure. It is recommended to hold low - position long positions and wait and see [15][17][18] 1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. If the war continues, high oil prices and inflation are the core negative factors for the bond market. The bond market may weaken in the short term, and strategies should be fast - in and fast - out [19][20] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 483,900 tons week - on - week. In mid - March, the daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises increased month - on - month. The demand for finished products is average, and the market expectation is unstable. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see [21][22][25] 2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The imported Mongolian coking coal market is stable. The first round of coke price increase has not been implemented. In the short term, the coking coal futures price is supported, but in the long term, the price increase is restricted. It is necessary to track the resumption of iron - making production, terminal demand, and coal mine resumption progress [26][27] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn consumption by deep - processing enterprises increased week - on - week, and imports from January to February increased significantly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has support. It is expected that corn will maintain a high - level shock pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options [28][29][31] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The long - term over - capacity problem in the pig market persists. In the short term, the spot price is under pressure. For the near - month contract, it is recommended to sell on rallies; for the far - month contract, it is recommended to wait and see [32] 2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The joint mining plan of Codelco and Anglo American has been approved. The macro and fundamental negative factors for copper are weakening. It is expected that the copper price will continue to build a bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage strategy [33][36] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium declined. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, wait and see for palladium, and pay attention to the long - platinum short - palladium opportunity in the medium term [37][38][39] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production due to an earthquake. The domestic social inventory of lead decreased. The lead price may continue to build a bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the mid - line buying opportunity at low prices [40][41] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic zinc inventory decreased. Boliden's Garpenberg mine reduced production, and the zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to manage positions well when going long, and wait and see for arbitrage [42][43][44] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Yahua Group signed a purchase agreement. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [45][47][48] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The domestic and LME tin inventories changed. The supply and demand of tin are both weak, and the main contradiction is the continuous fermentation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [49][50][51] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory decreased. The urea futures price rebounded, but the upper limit of the 05 contract is restricted. It is recommended to purchase according to rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [52][53] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - Jiangsu Sierbang's MTO device restarted, which is beneficial to the methanol futures price. It is recommended to take a bullish view and buy on dips [54] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price declined slightly. The supply may decrease, and the cost has increased. The market may continue the situation of supply contraction and cost support [55][56] 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The supply may decrease in April, and the demand is stable. The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda has increased. The supply - demand situation may improve marginally, but the increase space may be restricted [60][61] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased. The market is worried about short - term supply, and the Asian low - sulfur market may be in short supply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62][63][64] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash inventory changed little. The supply is increasing, and the demand is average. The industry is in a situation of high supply and high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the energy price inflection point [65] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass decreased slightly. The supply pressure has decreased, but the demand is average, and the mid - stream inventory pressure is large. The glass futures price may have limited rebound [66] 2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's foreign - trade container throughput increased in the first two months. The spot price is under pressure, and the near - month contract is returning to the spot logic. The far - month contract is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. It is recommended to maintain a shock strategy and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Given the new developments in the Middle East situation and the sharp drop in crude oil prices after the peace talk news, methanol is expected to continue to be strong after a short - term correction due to the time needed for supply to return to pre - war levels and the incomplete passage of the Strait of Hormuz. However, short - term risks are high, and it is necessary to closely monitor the US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [4] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of March 19, China's methanol production was 2,074,815 tons, an increase of 53,680 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 92.87%, a 2.65% increase from the previous week. There were new maintenance and production - reduction devices this period, and some devices resumed production. The overall recovery volume was more than the loss volume, resulting in an increase in production and capacity utilization [1] - China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons from the previous period, a 7.21% decrease; the sample enterprise order backlog was 279,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 5.26% increase [1] - Zhengshang Institute decided to add Anhui Province as a methanol futures delivery area and publicly solicit designated delivery warehouses for methanol futures. The premium and discount for the new delivery area is 150 yuan/ton, to be implemented from the date of the announcement of the new delivery warehouses [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In March, the traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz dropped by more than 90%. An Iranian vessel ordered an unauthorized ship to return, and the UK Royal Navy plans to lead a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [2] - A person from the securities department of China Merchants Energy Shipping revealed that the company has no ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, has no plans to pass through the risk area after the war, and is using other shipping routes. The current tanker freight rate has increased by more than 50% compared to before the war [2] - The US plans to cease fire for one month, and a plan to end the conflict with Iran was exposed [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Not provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On March 24, 2026, the platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rebounded, with the platinum main contract rising 3.61% to 487.40 yuan/gram and the palladium main contract rising 4.89% to 359.50 yuan/gram [1]. - Platinum: Market sentiment improved, and platinum prices rebounded from a low level. Trump's remarks changed market expectations for the US - Iran situation, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices and an improved interest - rate cut expectation. However, Iran's attitude has not significantly eased, and Trump's remarks may be inconsistent. In the long term, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still affects market expectations and platinum prices. The outlook is for a volatile trend [2]. - Palladium: Market sentiment improved, and palladium prices recovered. Supply - side uncertainties continue, with the US imposing anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium and Europe considering new sanctions. Demand faces structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is loosening, and in the short term, there are still supply disturbances. The outlook is for a volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Index - On March 24, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2515.21, down 0.65%; the commodity 20 index was 2795.15, down 0.56%; the industrial products index was 2570.33, down 0.49% [48]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On March 24, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2582.35, with a daily increase of 1.12%, a 5 - day decline of 3.44%, a 1 - month decline of 4.20%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.86% [50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the impact of the US - Iran situation on the global crude oil market supply has escalated. The VLCC still cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and about 10 million barrels per day of Middle - Eastern production has been shut down. The IEA announced the largest - ever emergency oil reserve release, but it cannot fundamentally solve the problem of upstream production interruption. The core lies in the duration of the Strait blockade. The crude oil forward curve currently prices in an interruption disturbance of about 30 days, but the disturbance is expected to last longer. Next week, the international crude oil market still faces upward price risks [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - The US Treasury issued a new general license related to Russian oil, allowing the delivery and sale of Russian - origin crude oil and petroleum products loaded on ships before March 12 until April 11, 2026, excluding transactions involving North Korea, Cuba and Crimea. This is part of the Trump administration's attempt to stabilize energy prices [3] - The IEA announced that Japan, Canada and South Korea will be the main contributors to the large - scale emergency oil reserve release due to the Iran war. Member states have contributed 426 million barrels of oil, with 172 million barrels from the US [4] - The Israeli military chief of staff said that Israel's military operation against Iran "is not even halfway through", and there is no end - time schedule [4] - The US will not implement a crude oil export ban [4] - The US Treasury Secretary said the US may use Iranian oil to lower prices, and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days and may release strategic oil reserves again [5] - Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port has resumed oil - loading operations [5] - Iranian MPs are considering a bill to levy tolls and taxes on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [5] 2. Weekly Inventory - In the week of March 13, US crude oil exports increased by 1.464 million barrels per day to 4.898 million barrels per day. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 100,000 barrels to 13.668 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.156 million barrels to 449 million barrels, a 1.39% increase. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.041 million barrels per day, a 2.14% increase year - on - year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained at 415.4 million barrels. Commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 7.194 million barrels per day, an increase of 772,000 barrels per day from the previous week. EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 5.436 million barrels, and EIA refined oil inventory decreased by 2.527 million barrels [5] 3. Price Data - From March 13 - 19, WTI prices fluctuated, with a final decrease of 0.18; BRENT prices rose by 1.27; DUBAI prices rose by 1.40. Other related products also showed corresponding price changes [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, with a probability of over 99% for no rate cut at this meeting[2][5] - One dissenting vote was recorded, with Stephen Miran advocating for a 25 basis point cut, contrasting with the majority's decision to keep rates unchanged[5] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points, reflecting concerns over potential supply shocks[3][10] - Powell expressed optimism regarding inflation, suggesting that recent energy supply shocks are likely to be temporary[3][7] Group 3: Employment and Economic Concerns - The Fed noted that the absolute level of new job creation is too low, indicating potential risks in the labor market[3][8] - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4%, with no significant changes observed in recent months[10] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is influencing the Fed's decision-making, with potential delays in rate cuts depending on developments in the region[3][13] - Following the Fed's meeting, major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 1.63%, S&P 500 down 1.36%, and Nasdaq down 1.46%[4]

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, with a probability of over 99% for no rate cut at this meeting[2][5] - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for April 29, 2026[2] Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points, reflecting potential supply shocks[3][10] - Concerns about stagflation were noted, with low job creation levels posing risks to the economy[3][8] Geopolitical Factors - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts is influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which could delay future rate cuts[3][14] - Oil prices surged past $105 per barrel following military actions in the region, impacting market stability[13] Market Reactions - Major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 1.63%, S&P 500 down 1.36%, and Nasdaq down 1.46%[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.26%, while the 2-year yield increased by 8 basis points to 3.76%[4] Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed's future rate cut path will depend heavily on developments in the Middle East, with potential for 2-3 cuts later in 2026 if tensions ease[14] - Current projections suggest a likelihood of no rate cuts until 2027, with market expectations reflecting this outlook[14]